Accessible Version

Global Implications of Brighter U.S. Productivity Prospects, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Private Investment in AI, 2023

'Total Investment' in billions of U.S. dollars

Country Total Investment
United States 67.22
China 7.76
United Kingdom 3.78
Germany 1.91
Sweden 1.89
France 1.69
Canada 1.61
Israel 1.52
South Korea 1.39
India 1.39
Singpore 1.14
Japan 0.68
United Arab Emirates 0.41
Australia 0.37
Spain 0.36

Note: Data taken from Maslej et al. (2024).

Source: Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford University.

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Figure 2. Recovered News Shocks to U.S. TFP

Percentage points

Date Value
1975-08-15 -0.294070197
1975-11-15 -0.121261859
1976-02-15 0.271636275
1976-05-15 0.460540896
1976-08-15 0.426672861
1976-11-15 -0.172588257
1977-02-15 -0.193847695
1977-05-15 -0.129423806
1977-08-15 -0.158162867
1977-11-15 -0.289342735
1978-02-15 -0.193915785
1978-05-15 0.153719325
1978-08-15 0.211608656
1978-11-15 -0.019201694
1979-02-15 -0.043283062
1979-05-15 -0.136721176
1979-08-15 0.011525358
1979-11-15 -0.09969691
1980-02-15 0.092266822
1980-05-15 -0.515160892
1980-08-15 -0.512475192
1980-11-15 0.440672257
1981-02-15 0.05935933
1981-05-15 0.597012755
1981-08-15 -0.009744843
1981-11-15 0.35092667
1982-02-15 0.31678789
1982-05-15 -0.17651454
1982-08-15 0.005338824
1982-11-15 -0.305997366
1983-02-15 0.129076051
1983-05-15 0.639065012
1983-08-15 0.519098251
1983-11-15 0.405691989
1984-02-15 0.612169671
1984-05-15 0.488518606
1984-08-15 0.5379359
1984-11-15 0.296824916
1985-02-15 0.340434921
1985-05-15 0.114324051
1985-08-15 -0.072271379
1985-11-15 -0.135821956
1986-02-15 -0.174826988
1986-05-15 0.069843207
1986-08-15 -0.067865441
1986-11-15 0.146716334
1987-02-15 0.476381825
1987-05-15 0.390510856
1987-08-15 0.491953517
1987-11-15 -0.19126114
1988-02-15 -0.089571043
1988-05-15 -0.094659268
1988-08-15 -0.330745719
1988-11-15 -0.331948444
1989-02-15 -0.281851889
1989-05-15 0.278856457
1989-08-15 0.342257259
1989-11-15 -0.019027344
1990-02-15 -0.243614039
1990-05-15 -0.224103221
1990-08-15 -0.767373623
1990-11-15 -1.017080051
1991-02-15 -0.983594639
1991-05-15 -0.557581009
1991-08-15 -0.357367359
1991-11-15 -0.511563351
1992-02-15 -0.336319233
1992-05-15 -0.271677111
1992-08-15 -0.655925
1992-11-15 -0.798377138
1993-02-15 -0.570507824
1993-05-15 -0.350181883
1993-08-15 -0.193354023
1993-11-15 -0.131508244
1994-02-15 0.173303375
1994-05-15 0.163481093
1994-08-15 -0.045954055
1994-11-15 -0.12725543
1995-02-15 -0.131365821
1995-05-15 -0.073156348
1995-08-15 0.196372347
1995-11-15 0.275277589
1996-02-15 0.382492539
1996-05-15 0.424918944
1996-08-15 0.40642585
1996-11-15 0.601399935
1997-02-15 0.606816572
1997-05-15 0.652723144
1997-08-15 0.803359259
1997-11-15 0.826193164
1998-02-15 1.075189998
1998-05-15 1.105030571
1998-08-15 0.79203891
1998-11-15 0.73358614
1999-02-15 0.68431636
1999-05-15 0.815930414
1999-08-15 0.589685918
1999-11-15 0.296841525
2000-02-15 0.559270796
2000-05-15 0.648828919
2000-08-15 0.539125932
2000-11-15 0.291116252
2001-02-15 0.097857968
2001-05-15 0.110327999
2001-08-15 -0.280570794
2001-11-15 -0.492435985
2002-02-15 -0.524703588
2002-05-15 -0.612266201
2002-08-15 -0.84593857
2002-11-15 -0.782074796
2003-02-15 -0.796924459
2003-05-15 -0.606788582
2003-08-15 -0.667532826
2003-11-15 -0.569092636
2004-02-15 -0.287963561
2004-05-15 -0.418032821
2004-08-15 -0.281267061
2004-11-15 -0.423771977
2005-02-15 -0.424131941
2005-05-15 -0.346728177
2005-08-15 -0.25954494
2005-11-15 -0.104172641
2006-02-15 0.0722206
2006-05-15 -0.101980733
2006-08-15 -0.095447749
2006-11-15 0.009751053
2007-02-15 -0.142239639
2007-05-15 -0.195998734
2007-08-15 -0.442677958
2007-11-15 -0.45631775
2008-02-15 -0.90049546
2008-05-15 -1.079147254
2008-08-15 -1.103752897
2008-11-15 -1.1355765
2009-02-15 -0.802928936
2009-05-15 -0.450812535
2009-08-15 -0.012881002
2009-11-15 0.062901745
2010-02-15 0.325201952
2010-05-15 0.460945025
2010-08-15 0.15275238
2010-11-15 0.103517682
2011-02-15 0.139529975
2011-05-15 0.060421887
2011-08-15 -0.218836336
2011-11-15 -0.16031008
2012-02-15 0.137454687
2012-05-15 -0.018839985
2012-08-15 0.008876622
2012-11-15 0.055138146
2013-02-15 0.382273333
2013-05-15 0.336071329
2013-08-15 0.079418896
2013-11-15 0.080796597
2014-02-15 0.072343093
2014-05-15 0.175442796
2014-08-15 0.055620548
2014-11-15 0.158047028
2015-02-15 0.389930231
2015-05-15 0.36656572
2015-08-15 0.250817874
2015-11-15 0.367865679
2016-02-15 0.242295046
2016-05-15 -0.008559307
2016-08-15 -0.115987638
2016-11-15 -0.078347035
2017-02-15 0.080709175
2017-05-15 -0.068156478
2017-08-15 -0.050107112
2017-11-15 0.005951822
2018-02-15 -0.039926269
2018-05-15 -0.029627589
2018-08-15 0.106351712
2018-11-15 0.070595859
2019-02-15 0.282856488
2019-05-15 0.35206896
2019-08-15 0.4039888
2019-11-15 0.478536064
2020-02-15 0.283643801
2020-05-15 0.298325774
2020-08-15 0.186572236
2020-11-15 0.102072352
2021-02-15 0.054786398
2021-05-15 -0.15888297
2021-08-15 -0.205659897
2021-11-15 -0.267376471
2022-02-15 -0.272883938
2022-05-15 -0.375301538
2022-08-15 -0.159633327
2022-11-15 0.114927654
2023-02-15 0.17712997
2023-05-15 0.326765801
2023-08-15 0.397491573
2023-11-15 0.551788996

Note: The trailing six-quarter moving average of the shock is plotted. A 1 percentage point increase of the shock implies a 1 percent increase in the 10-year ahead TFP growth prospects. Shaded area covers 1993 to 1999.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 3. Impulse Responses for News Shocks to U.S. TFP

Median Response
'Horizon' in years, 'U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff.' in percentage points, the rest in percent change

Horizon U.S. TFP U.S. Stock Prices U.S. Investment Output per Hour Worked (legend: U.S.) Output per Hour Worked (legend: G-6) U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff. G-6/U.S. Real Exchange Rate
0.00 0.000 2.929 0.545 -0.015 -0.013 0.450 1.040
0.25 0.046 3.358 1.210 0.014 -0.004 0.436 1.456
0.50 0.062 3.722 1.434 -0.017 0.021 0.297 1.650
0.75 0.106 4.132 1.615 -0.029 0.034 0.306 1.836
1.00 0.139 4.241 1.712 -0.038 0.034 0.272 1.951
1.25 0.174 4.354 1.729 -0.022 0.032 0.231 1.957
1.50 0.213 4.385 1.696 -0.003 0.033 0.209 1.931
1.75 0.251 4.485 1.656 0.022 0.033 0.183 1.882
2.00 0.291 4.493 1.632 0.054 0.034 0.161 1.851
2.25 0.329 4.466 1.590 0.086 0.034 0.143 1.794
2.50 0.367 4.442 1.577 0.116 0.032 0.125 1.727
2.75 0.403 4.378 1.555 0.148 0.031 0.110 1.684
3.00 0.443 4.334 1.520 0.181 0.030 0.098 1.626
3.25 0.482 4.248 1.494 0.213 0.027 0.085 1.581
3.50 0.517 4.163 1.479 0.243 0.026 0.075 1.551
3.75 0.546 4.102 1.486 0.271 0.026 0.067 1.498
4.00 0.577 4.002 1.470 0.295 0.023 0.061 1.477
4.25 0.602 3.901 1.456 0.321 0.021 0.056 1.445
4.50 0.628 3.782 1.441 0.345 0.018 0.052 1.405
4.75 0.654 3.706 1.436 0.368 0.016 0.049 1.360
5.00 0.678 3.603 1.435 0.386 0.013 0.046 1.316

Lower 1 Standard Deviation Response
'Horizon' in years, 'U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff.' in percentage points, the rest in percent change

Horizon U.S. TFP U.S. Stock Prices U.S. Investment Output per Hour Worked (legend: U.S.) Output per Hour Worked (legend: G-6) U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff. G-6/U.S. Real Exchange Rate
0.00 0.000 0.776 -0.321 -0.101 -0.111 0.145 -0.509
0.25 -0.015 0.405 0.088 -0.091 -0.099 0.161 -0.324
0.50 -0.038 0.432 0.040 -0.150 -0.084 0.059 -0.195
0.75 -0.025 0.790 0.062 -0.192 -0.079 0.047 -0.051
1.00 -0.002 1.040 0.062 -0.216 -0.078 0.036 0.054
1.25 0.026 1.179 0.021 -0.227 -0.080 0.021 0.140
1.50 0.058 1.274 -0.033 -0.227 -0.085 0.015 0.192
1.75 0.096 1.315 -0.088 -0.213 -0.092 0.009 0.220
2.00 0.132 1.332 -0.169 -0.188 -0.096 0.001 0.231
2.25 0.168 1.355 -0.244 -0.155 -0.102 -0.008 0.212
2.50 0.207 1.371 -0.282 -0.122 -0.107 -0.011 0.247
2.75 0.240 1.283 -0.301 -0.093 -0.113 -0.012 0.243
3.00 0.275 1.262 -0.328 -0.064 -0.118 -0.016 0.249
3.25 0.307 1.221 -0.346 -0.033 -0.125 -0.020 0.241
3.50 0.337 1.172 -0.368 -0.001 -0.131 -0.023 0.236
3.75 0.368 1.125 -0.365 0.026 -0.138 -0.026 0.243
4.00 0.395 1.087 -0.374 0.051 -0.144 -0.030 0.237
4.25 0.420 1.010 -0.370 0.071 -0.148 -0.032 0.225
4.50 0.446 0.960 -0.355 0.089 -0.155 -0.033 0.208
4.75 0.465 0.868 -0.335 0.108 -0.160 -0.034 0.194
5.00 0.484 0.792 -0.320 0.124 -0.164 -0.035 0.207

Upper 1 Standard Deviation Response
Horizon' in years, 'U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff.' in percentage points, the rest in percent change

Horizon U.S. TFP U.S. Stock Prices U.S. Investment Output per Hour Worked (legend: U.S.) Output per Hour Worked (legend: G-6) U.S.-G-6 Real Interest Rate Diff. G-6/U.S. Real Exchange Rate
0.00 0.000 4.592 1.265 0.072 0.077 0.693 2.201
0.25 0.111 5.689 2.039 0.128 0.089 0.664 2.764
0.50 0.174 6.286 2.390 0.131 0.118 0.496 2.936
0.75 0.253 6.687 2.746 0.150 0.138 0.515 3.147
1.00 0.297 6.745 2.957 0.173 0.142 0.468 3.248
1.25 0.339 6.815 3.061 0.203 0.147 0.423 3.223
1.50 0.383 6.840 3.123 0.237 0.153 0.395 3.196
1.75 0.424 6.903 3.144 0.272 0.155 0.359 3.134
2.00 0.464 6.922 3.162 0.304 0.156 0.326 3.077
2.25 0.506 6.950 3.172 0.332 0.160 0.296 3.035
2.50 0.546 6.947 3.169 0.367 0.165 0.271 2.995
2.75 0.586 6.902 3.182 0.400 0.170 0.249 2.953
3.00 0.624 6.852 3.200 0.433 0.172 0.230 2.923
3.25 0.667 6.855 3.187 0.463 0.175 0.213 2.895
3.50 0.710 6.830 3.188 0.497 0.178 0.199 2.847
3.75 0.752 6.766 3.177 0.527 0.181 0.186 2.799
4.00 0.789 6.708 3.171 0.555 0.185 0.173 2.746
4.25 0.824 6.617 3.186 0.580 0.190 0.165 2.707
4.50 0.860 6.498 3.180 0.611 0.192 0.158 2.662
4.75 0.896 6.407 3.179 0.638 0.195 0.153 2.608
5.00 0.931 6.344 3.183 0.665 0.196 0.148 2.566

Note: Data are impulse responses years after the initial shock. Shaded areas indicate one standard-deviation bands of uncertainty.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Last Update: July 19, 2024