Accessible Version
Global trade patterns in the wake of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China tariff hikes, Accessible Data
Figure 1: China’s Share of U.S. Goods Imports has declined significantly.
| Date | Percent |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-16 | 2.597581768 |
| 1990-02-13 | 2.635267812 |
| 1990-03-16 | 2.677990757 |
| 1990-04-15 | 2.728267015 |
| 1990-05-16 | 2.777113576 |
| 1990-06-15 | 2.830745381 |
| 1990-07-16 | 2.888133939 |
| 1990-08-16 | 2.93671492 |
| 1990-09-15 | 2.97653978 |
| 1990-10-16 | 3.016221478 |
| 1990-11-15 | 3.045874547 |
| 1990-12-16 | 3.070297248 |
| 1991-01-16 | 3.101467243 |
| 1991-02-13 | 3.155958016 |
| 1991-03-16 | 3.189573958 |
| 1991-04-15 | 3.210213582 |
| 1991-05-16 | 3.258202158 |
| 1991-06-15 | 3.311599524 |
| 1991-07-16 | 3.37839317 |
| 1991-08-16 | 3.448865156 |
| 1991-09-15 | 3.545910655 |
| 1991-10-16 | 3.673165613 |
| 1991-11-15 | 3.811287818 |
| 1991-12-16 | 3.894046371 |
| 1992-01-16 | 4.014059241 |
| 1992-02-14 | 4.085899694 |
| 1992-03-16 | 4.140966647 |
| 1992-04-15 | 4.227268099 |
| 1992-05-16 | 4.304469568 |
| 1992-06-15 | 4.378639096 |
| 1992-07-16 | 4.474678528 |
| 1992-08-16 | 4.583702225 |
| 1992-09-15 | 4.697941503 |
| 1992-10-16 | 4.765124918 |
| 1992-11-15 | 4.792095725 |
| 1992-12-16 | 4.82997621 |
| 1993-01-16 | 4.863122985 |
| 1993-02-13 | 4.869541673 |
| 1993-03-16 | 4.920597592 |
| 1993-04-15 | 4.976518347 |
| 1993-05-16 | 5.033213944 |
| 1993-06-15 | 5.095190829 |
| 1993-07-16 | 5.158199669 |
| 1993-08-16 | 5.232279295 |
| 1993-09-15 | 5.297412555 |
| 1993-10-16 | 5.352337733 |
| 1993-11-15 | 5.406277259 |
| 1993-12-16 | 5.431298068 |
| 1994-01-16 | 5.487865873 |
| 1994-02-13 | 5.550983011 |
| 1994-03-16 | 5.531688455 |
| 1994-04-15 | 5.54236081 |
| 1994-05-16 | 5.581053185 |
| 1994-06-15 | 5.635192582 |
| 1994-07-16 | 5.68342043 |
| 1994-08-16 | 5.738074738 |
| 1994-09-15 | 5.787352698 |
| 1994-10-16 | 5.842424785 |
| 1994-11-15 | 5.850696318 |
| 1994-12-16 | 5.847924982 |
| 1995-01-16 | 5.85639007 |
| 1995-02-13 | 5.856512762 |
| 1995-03-16 | 5.886162233 |
| 1995-04-15 | 5.910016454 |
| 1995-05-16 | 5.920227883 |
| 1995-06-15 | 5.932204442 |
| 1995-07-16 | 5.966509737 |
| 1995-08-16 | 6.011999776 |
| 1995-09-15 | 6.036114024 |
| 1995-10-16 | 6.074808593 |
| 1995-11-15 | 6.101448489 |
| 1995-12-16 | 6.125161875 |
| 1996-01-16 | 6.115051761 |
| 1996-02-14 | 6.142940552 |
| 1996-03-16 | 6.138525518 |
| 1996-04-15 | 6.112215411 |
| 1996-05-16 | 6.122154362 |
| 1996-06-15 | 6.141047994 |
| 1996-07-16 | 6.160196067 |
| 1996-08-16 | 6.221244436 |
| 1996-09-15 | 6.297542336 |
| 1996-10-16 | 6.383744822 |
| 1996-11-15 | 6.438860239 |
| 1996-12-16 | 6.477214602 |
| 1997-01-16 | 6.55996853 |
| 1997-02-13 | 6.612997789 |
| 1997-03-16 | 6.648192688 |
| 1997-04-15 | 6.741567948 |
| 1997-05-16 | 6.806240074 |
| 1997-06-15 | 6.878456761 |
| 1997-07-16 | 6.934514629 |
| 1997-08-16 | 6.962761979 |
| 1997-09-15 | 7.02065579 |
| 1997-10-16 | 7.053951366 |
| 1997-11-15 | 7.118381376 |
| 1997-12-16 | 7.192976187 |
| 1998-01-16 | 7.258676646 |
| 1998-02-13 | 7.265231008 |
| 1998-03-16 | 7.336027891 |
| 1998-04-15 | 7.390344326 |
| 1998-05-16 | 7.452602091 |
| 1998-06-15 | 7.498209558 |
| 1998-07-16 | 7.572308719 |
| 1998-08-16 | 7.624769156 |
| 1998-09-15 | 7.673033009 |
| 1998-10-16 | 7.738254234 |
| 1998-11-15 | 7.791671761 |
| 1998-12-16 | 7.804472249 |
| 1999-01-16 | 7.813270697 |
| 1999-02-13 | 7.876094314 |
| 1999-03-16 | 7.869076467 |
| 1999-04-15 | 7.893034294 |
| 1999-05-16 | 7.922286215 |
| 1999-06-15 | 7.946438253 |
| 1999-07-16 | 7.94852775 |
| 1999-08-16 | 7.964021424 |
| 1999-09-15 | 7.977491596 |
| 1999-10-16 | 7.974746058 |
| 1999-11-15 | 7.96766729 |
| 1999-12-16 | 7.98231147 |
| 2000-01-16 | 7.983954751 |
| 2000-02-14 | 7.945870263 |
| 2000-03-16 | 7.917720524 |
| 2000-04-15 | 7.922412527 |
| 2000-05-16 | 7.912932 |
| 2000-06-15 | 7.922409861 |
| 2000-07-16 | 7.977959255 |
| 2000-08-16 | 8.02635041 |
| 2000-09-15 | 8.074747641 |
| 2000-10-16 | 8.1449535 |
| 2000-11-15 | 8.184557539 |
| 2000-12-16 | 8.211545107 |
| 2001-01-16 | 8.237492056 |
| 2001-02-13 | 8.220869105 |
| 2001-03-16 | 8.313494869 |
| 2001-04-15 | 8.355859862 |
| 2001-05-16 | 8.378672265 |
| 2001-06-15 | 8.42775912 |
| 2001-07-16 | 8.456549597 |
| 2001-08-16 | 8.536102183 |
| 2001-09-15 | 8.646329231 |
| 2001-10-16 | 8.756282568 |
| 2001-11-15 | 8.851139867 |
| 2001-12-16 | 8.963925589 |
| 2002-01-16 | 9.096463385 |
| 2002-02-13 | 9.310434014 |
| 2002-03-16 | 9.382659793 |
| 2002-04-15 | 9.505061641 |
| 2002-05-16 | 9.685034964 |
| 2002-06-15 | 9.888955969 |
| 2002-07-16 | 10.03817783 |
| 2002-08-16 | 10.22349422 |
| 2002-09-15 | 10.3429362 |
| 2002-10-16 | 10.3536907 |
| 2002-11-15 | 10.57810406 |
| 2002-12-16 | 10.7797601 |
| 2003-01-16 | 10.92064568 |
| 2003-02-13 | 10.96725613 |
| 2003-03-16 | 11.07317829 |
| 2003-04-15 | 11.21025598 |
| 2003-05-16 | 11.33780088 |
| 2003-06-15 | 11.3825871 |
| 2003-07-16 | 11.49783343 |
| 2003-08-16 | 11.58689013 |
| 2003-09-15 | 11.70251803 |
| 2003-10-16 | 12.00217188 |
| 2003-11-15 | 12.09573925 |
| 2003-12-16 | 12.12580702 |
| 2004-01-16 | 12.27594216 |
| 2004-02-14 | 12.29162222 |
| 2004-03-16 | 12.40991333 |
| 2004-04-15 | 12.51385386 |
| 2004-05-16 | 12.60106831 |
| 2004-06-15 | 12.73269523 |
| 2004-07-16 | 12.88951097 |
| 2004-08-16 | 12.96818863 |
| 2004-09-15 | 13.06378393 |
| 2004-10-16 | 13.13072459 |
| 2004-11-15 | 13.25188924 |
| 2004-12-16 | 13.38242127 |
| 2005-01-16 | 13.46750714 |
| 2005-02-13 | 13.68870823 |
| 2005-03-16 | 13.7373313 |
| 2005-04-15 | 13.8107859 |
| 2005-05-16 | 13.90812866 |
| 2005-06-15 | 14.04692149 |
| 2005-07-16 | 14.16363411 |
| 2005-08-16 | 14.26601246 |
| 2005-09-15 | 14.39119106 |
| 2005-10-16 | 14.48829268 |
| 2005-11-15 | 14.5183475 |
| 2005-12-16 | 14.54895259 |
| 2006-01-16 | 14.56931005 |
| 2006-02-13 | 14.51959895 |
| 2006-03-16 | 14.61502073 |
| 2006-04-15 | 14.70913569 |
| 2006-05-16 | 14.70261523 |
| 2006-06-15 | 14.71444827 |
| 2006-07-16 | 14.72733521 |
| 2006-08-16 | 14.7918562 |
| 2006-09-15 | 14.92616246 |
| 2006-10-16 | 15.13415257 |
| 2006-11-15 | 15.36576133 |
| 2006-12-16 | 15.52232485 |
| 2007-01-16 | 15.69889564 |
| 2007-02-13 | 15.93126049 |
| 2007-03-16 | 15.98600864 |
| 2007-04-15 | 16.05175114 |
| 2007-05-16 | 16.17395627 |
| 2007-06-15 | 16.30294071 |
| 2007-07-16 | 16.43468824 |
| 2007-08-16 | 16.49691248 |
| 2007-09-15 | 16.55662079 |
| 2007-10-16 | 16.51422526 |
| 2007-11-15 | 16.46128612 |
| 2007-12-16 | 16.42560728 |
| 2008-01-16 | 16.30786336 |
| 2008-02-14 | 16.15459208 |
| 2008-03-16 | 16.06148851 |
| 2008-04-15 | 15.94402071 |
| 2008-05-16 | 15.90575342 |
| 2008-06-15 | 15.75092945 |
| 2008-07-16 | 15.60914488 |
| 2008-08-16 | 15.6286473 |
| 2008-09-15 | 15.67220578 |
| 2008-10-16 | 15.75917138 |
| 2008-11-15 | 15.89636871 |
| 2008-12-16 | 16.05657402 |
| 2009-01-16 | 16.34457039 |
| 2009-02-13 | 16.54000781 |
| 2009-03-16 | 16.90004442 |
| 2009-04-15 | 17.25231782 |
| 2009-05-16 | 17.61413373 |
| 2009-06-15 | 18.01942107 |
| 2009-07-16 | 18.40250084 |
| 2009-08-16 | 18.69382981 |
| 2009-09-15 | 18.82807265 |
| 2009-10-16 | 19.01072512 |
| 2009-11-15 | 19.01545541 |
| 2009-12-16 | 19.00289614 |
| 2010-01-16 | 18.86013249 |
| 2010-02-13 | 18.84785087 |
| 2010-03-16 | 18.61622806 |
| 2010-04-15 | 18.47366467 |
| 2010-05-16 | 18.41303124 |
| 2010-06-15 | 18.48691559 |
| 2010-07-16 | 18.62071571 |
| 2010-08-16 | 18.74053136 |
| 2010-09-15 | 18.87111137 |
| 2010-10-16 | 18.93160189 |
| 2010-11-15 | 19.04588028 |
| 2010-12-16 | 19.06896445 |
| 2011-01-16 | 19.08846886 |
| 2011-02-13 | 19.06924534 |
| 2011-03-16 | 18.96500688 |
| 2011-04-15 | 18.91027787 |
| 2011-05-16 | 18.79010077 |
| 2011-06-15 | 18.65337067 |
| 2011-07-16 | 18.53597279 |
| 2011-08-16 | 18.40903638 |
| 2011-09-15 | 18.27349596 |
| 2011-10-16 | 18.21880184 |
| 2011-11-15 | 18.14185072 |
| 2011-12-16 | 18.08783924 |
| 2012-01-16 | 18.09046386 |
| 2012-02-14 | 18.00361181 |
| 2012-03-16 | 18.08286448 |
| 2012-04-15 | 18.14543374 |
| 2012-05-16 | 18.16453124 |
| 2012-06-15 | 18.23219262 |
| 2012-07-16 | 18.30928443 |
| 2012-08-16 | 18.31640745 |
| 2012-09-15 | 18.41254039 |
| 2012-10-16 | 18.46307693 |
| 2012-11-15 | 18.55051418 |
| 2012-12-16 | 18.69811648 |
| 2013-01-16 | 18.80656471 |
| 2013-02-13 | 19.02274549 |
| 2013-03-16 | 18.9701617 |
| 2013-04-15 | 18.96614154 |
| 2013-05-16 | 19.05492819 |
| 2013-06-15 | 19.11009238 |
| 2013-07-16 | 19.11075157 |
| 2013-08-16 | 19.21013293 |
| 2013-09-15 | 19.25656326 |
| 2013-10-16 | 19.27291206 |
| 2013-11-15 | 19.34859871 |
| 2013-12-16 | 19.41942662 |
| 2014-01-16 | 19.46387458 |
| 2014-02-13 | 19.37054484 |
| 2014-03-16 | 19.44305444 |
| 2014-04-15 | 19.49714404 |
| 2014-05-16 | 19.53008429 |
| 2014-06-15 | 19.57768414 |
| 2014-07-16 | 19.57715444 |
| 2014-08-16 | 19.58138465 |
| 2014-09-15 | 19.69491345 |
| 2014-10-16 | 19.78886547 |
| 2014-11-15 | 19.87257867 |
| 2014-12-16 | 19.88132865 |
| 2015-01-16 | 19.931369 |
| 2015-02-13 | 20.03422176 |
| 2015-03-16 | 20.41721799 |
| 2015-04-15 | 20.50082804 |
| 2015-05-16 | 20.66548691 |
| 2015-06-15 | 20.75371504 |
| 2015-07-16 | 20.89547476 |
| 2015-08-16 | 21.13770498 |
| 2015-09-15 | 21.27735043 |
| 2015-10-16 | 21.38567545 |
| 2015-11-15 | 21.4396224 |
| 2015-12-16 | 21.48698045 |
| 2016-01-16 | 21.56958406 |
| 2016-02-14 | 21.7212979 |
| 2016-03-16 | 21.40465146 |
| 2016-04-15 | 21.41524813 |
| 2016-05-16 | 21.37431258 |
| 2016-06-15 | 21.326837 |
| 2016-07-16 | 21.36168311 |
| 2016-08-16 | 21.28056902 |
| 2016-09-15 | 21.16505211 |
| 2016-10-16 | 21.17318473 |
| 2016-11-15 | 21.11887262 |
| 2016-12-16 | 21.14380984 |
| 2017-01-16 | 21.14453611 |
| 2017-02-13 | 20.98482053 |
| 2017-03-16 | 21.03300132 |
| 2017-04-15 | 21.12377511 |
| 2017-05-16 | 21.15386082 |
| 2017-06-15 | 21.22882347 |
| 2017-07-16 | 21.31709983 |
| 2017-08-16 | 21.3585759 |
| 2017-09-15 | 21.42661046 |
| 2017-10-16 | 21.44167037 |
| 2017-11-15 | 21.52705084 |
| 2017-12-16 | 21.592023 |
| 2018-01-16 | 21.61722922 |
| 2018-02-13 | 21.71751437 |
| 2018-03-16 | 21.76310517 |
| 2018-04-15 | 21.62204821 |
| 2018-05-16 | 21.569064 |
| 2018-06-15 | 21.54628732 |
| 2018-07-16 | 21.46668459 |
| 2018-08-16 | 21.37190102 |
| 2018-09-15 | 21.40962033 |
| 2018-10-16 | 21.35183651 |
| 2018-11-15 | 21.23233953 |
| 2018-12-16 | 21.23356907 |
| 2019-01-16 | 21.05301177 |
| 2019-02-13 | 20.83168069 |
| 2019-03-16 | 20.55175972 |
| 2019-04-15 | 20.37529498 |
| 2019-05-16 | 20.1513587 |
| 2019-06-15 | 19.96068833 |
| 2019-07-16 | 19.72194327 |
| 2019-08-16 | 19.5036756 |
| 2019-09-15 | 19.14514041 |
| 2019-10-16 | 18.78512008 |
| 2019-11-15 | 18.48691697 |
| 2019-12-16 | 18.02427076 |
| 2020-01-16 | 17.74713804 |
| 2020-02-14 | 17.3764106 |
| 2020-03-16 | 17.00774408 |
| 2020-04-15 | 17.15512886 |
| 2020-05-16 | 17.4523935 |
| 2020-06-15 | 17.5951759 |
| 2020-07-16 | 17.70165371 |
| 2020-08-16 | 17.77936162 |
| 2020-09-15 | 17.82917394 |
| 2020-10-16 | 18.03959467 |
| 2020-11-15 | 18.302525 |
| 2020-12-16 | 18.55253065 |
| 2021-01-16 | 18.73422381 |
| 2021-02-13 | 19.08973887 |
| 2021-03-16 | 19.59407001 |
| 2021-04-15 | 19.37950119 |
| 2021-05-16 | 18.95238121 |
| 2021-06-15 | 18.58640856 |
| 2021-07-16 | 18.31505211 |
| 2021-08-16 | 18.11122212 |
| 2021-09-15 | 18.0889179 |
| 2021-10-16 | 17.99417998 |
| 2021-11-15 | 17.81732112 |
| 2021-12-16 | 17.82638878 |
| 2022-01-16 | 17.87163036 |
| 2022-02-13 | 17.91165583 |
| 2022-03-16 | 17.80323629 |
| 2022-04-15 | 17.67264143 |
| 2022-05-16 | 17.52941707 |
| 2022-06-15 | 17.56282097 |
| 2022-07-16 | 17.57487559 |
| 2022-08-16 | 17.59865136 |
| 2022-09-15 | 17.48888735 |
| 2022-10-16 | 17.22345155 |
| 2022-11-15 | 16.89308397 |
| 2022-12-16 | 16.5397733 |
| 2023-01-16 | 16.21170168 |
| 2023-02-13 | 15.87001157 |
| 2023-03-16 | 15.52023971 |
| 2023-04-15 | 15.35744541 |
| 2023-05-16 | 15.2096793 |
| 2023-06-15 | 14.89514403 |
| 2023-07-16 | 14.63274104 |
| 2023-08-16 | 14.27635737 |
| 2023-09-15 | 14.05125312 |
| 2023-10-16 | 13.97550241 |
| 2023-11-15 | 13.9302223 |
| 2023-12-16 | 13.85278 |
Note: Share is measured over a 12-month rolling window. The data extend through December 2023.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 2: The decline was concentrated in tariffed goods
Tariffed Goods
| Date | China | Rest of the World |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-01 | 85.56931331 | 88.3560378 |
| 2015-02-01 | 78.2567889 | 84.49241126 |
| 2015-03-01 | 82.99067766 | 88.35421763 |
| 2015-04-01 | 82.56291118 | 89.80819795 |
| 2015-05-01 | 83.70029468 | 90.00022994 |
| 2015-06-01 | 84.86782329 | 90.82689 |
| 2015-07-01 | 85.81383501 | 91.29912286 |
| 2015-08-01 | 86.99474541 | 91.0487187 |
| 2015-09-01 | 87.52422368 | 90.63575476 |
| 2015-10-01 | 87.43869904 | 90.6241815 |
| 2015-11-01 | 86.97590517 | 90.09364166 |
| 2015-12-01 | 86.54214671 | 89.77808328 |
| 2016-01-01 | 86.49659252 | 88.99799782 |
| 2016-02-01 | 87.53739943 | 88.94514699 |
| 2016-03-01 | 85.44465265 | 88.3588276 |
| 2016-04-01 | 85.05939156 | 87.69770813 |
| 2016-05-01 | 84.92849968 | 87.60753484 |
| 2016-06-01 | 84.58404615 | 87.26621468 |
| 2016-07-01 | 84.43352184 | 86.8074306 |
| 2016-08-01 | 84.65000704 | 87.15741865 |
| 2016-09-01 | 84.65989649 | 87.43192918 |
| 2016-10-01 | 85.26481887 | 87.68035945 |
| 2016-11-01 | 86.01564495 | 88.30520278 |
| 2016-12-01 | 86.79222638 | 88.66123036 |
| 2017-01-01 | 87.80184849 | 89.6122037 |
| 2017-02-01 | 87.46591515 | 90.08398334 |
| 2017-03-01 | 88.50798795 | 91.07363345 |
| 2017-04-01 | 89.46561268 | 91.68105201 |
| 2017-05-01 | 90.53350141 | 92.50485593 |
| 2017-06-01 | 91.55862057 | 93.10508957 |
| 2017-07-01 | 92.47060655 | 93.55635442 |
| 2017-08-01 | 93.00015318 | 93.96019816 |
| 2017-09-01 | 93.68511834 | 94.21114804 |
| 2017-10-01 | 94.47072941 | 94.91130251 |
| 2017-11-01 | 95.26735462 | 95.58896797 |
| 2017-12-01 | 95.83467312 | 96.12867743 |
| 2018-01-01 | 96.64384477 | 96.7841301 |
| 2018-02-01 | 97.89005358 | 97.38180083 |
| 2018-03-01 | 98.63104923 | 97.75487852 |
| 2018-04-01 | 98.84423752 | 98.67149754 |
| 2018-05-01 | 99.34713911 | 99.42842831 |
| 2018-06-01 | 100 | 100 |
| 2018-07-01 | 100.828746 | 101.0506226 |
| 2018-08-01 | 101.4697843 | 101.9584512 |
| 2018-09-01 | 102.3542257 | 102.6062093 |
| 2018-10-01 | 102.748266 | 103.6012337 |
| 2018-11-01 | 102.6791794 | 103.882044 |
| 2018-12-01 | 103.6383524 | 104.2003851 |
| 2019-01-01 | 102.694181 | 104.3690785 |
| 2019-02-01 | 101.1818475 | 104.4739995 |
| 2019-03-01 | 99.5309744 | 104.7864205 |
| 2019-04-01 | 98.42776647 | 104.9951107 |
| 2019-05-01 | 96.79768559 | 105.3443408 |
| 2019-06-01 | 94.78759658 | 105.2798371 |
| 2019-07-01 | 92.89336621 | 105.5394156 |
| 2019-08-01 | 90.86590969 | 105.3911657 |
| 2019-09-01 | 88.22469844 | 105.425957 |
| 2019-10-01 | 85.3197294 | 105.0668954 |
| 2019-11-01 | 82.53606182 | 104.7958902 |
| 2019-12-01 | 79.08188938 | 105.0200226 |
| 2020-01-01 | 77.23955318 | 104.9811993 |
| 2020-02-01 | 75.23537566 | 105.0414854 |
| 2020-03-01 | 72.78719897 | 104.7674169 |
| 2020-04-01 | 71.65753209 | 102.5131222 |
| 2020-05-01 | 70.911683 | 99.48829363 |
| 2020-06-01 | 70.42560386 | 97.93386158 |
| 2020-07-01 | 70.00560145 | 96.95449909 |
| 2020-08-01 | 69.44032545 | 96.21408766 |
| 2020-09-01 | 69.49634812 | 96.06399076 |
| 2020-10-01 | 69.92512885 | 95.85781429 |
| 2020-11-01 | 70.57561661 | 96.06493998 |
| 2020-12-01 | 71.25433217 | 96.37241846 |
| 2021-01-01 | 71.22682323 | 96.45775619 |
| 2021-02-01 | 72.31320246 | 96.72903567 |
| 2021-03-01 | 75.51412692 | 98.06130254 |
| 2021-04-01 | 76.10538765 | 101.2192402 |
| 2021-05-01 | 75.90436019 | 104.8646399 |
| 2021-06-01 | 75.89550656 | 108.2899481 |
| 2021-07-01 | 75.30101528 | 110.4260092 |
| 2021-08-01 | 75.5315491 | 112.685215 |
| 2021-09-01 | 75.88042722 | 114.4298328 |
| 2021-10-01 | 76.31769318 | 115.9145752 |
| 2021-11-01 | 76.99448923 | 118.0857023 |
| 2021-12-01 | 77.80011244 | 119.8632563 |
| 2022-01-01 | 79.16801114 | 121.8987552 |
| 2022-02-01 | 80.27657555 | 123.6956094 |
| 2022-03-01 | 80.9506452 | 126.5482448 |
| 2022-04-01 | 81.85824475 | 128.9191055 |
| 2022-05-01 | 82.71231224 | 131.6206571 |
| 2022-06-01 | 83.63328438 | 133.5834313 |
| 2022-07-01 | 84.6620141 | 135.2830993 |
| 2022-08-01 | 85.50570192 | 137.1045564 |
| 2022-09-01 | 85.37713776 | 138.9410513 |
| 2022-10-01 | 84.87570366 | 140.8466292 |
| 2022-11-01 | 83.87053517 | 141.484879 |
| 2022-12-01 | 82.49016891 | 142.0404253 |
| 2023-01-01 | 80.98663971 | 142.7657494 |
| 2023-02-01 | 79.51166496 | 143.0707535 |
| 2023-03-01 | 77.18360387 | 141.9905597 |
| 2023-04-01 | 75.81193253 | 141.0729637 |
| 2023-05-01 | 74.5526992 | 140.2521769 |
| 2023-06-01 | 72.74756055 | 139.2856879 |
| 2023-07-01 | 71.04862549 | 138.5824093 |
| 2023-08-01 | 69.02944124 | 138.0883067 |
| 2023-09-01 | 67.85493904 | 137.5287976 |
| 2023-10-01 | 67.10932108 | 137.2536247 |
| 2023-11-01 | 66.41860835 | 137.2150084 |
| 2023-12-01 | 66.14245802 | 136.9757464 |
Non-Tariffed Goods
| Date | China | Rest of the World |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-01 | 93.34700699 | 94.8131406 |
| 2015-02-01 | 83.88823786 | 93.21980029 |
| 2015-03-01 | 88.26130401 | 99.28593919 |
| 2015-04-01 | 87.44364897 | 101.730514 |
| 2015-05-01 | 88.222016 | 101.6658991 |
| 2015-06-01 | 90.63900095 | 103.5291723 |
| 2015-07-01 | 91.90458433 | 103.4682786 |
| 2015-08-01 | 94.42044868 | 103.391764 |
| 2015-09-01 | 98.37591392 | 104.5512818 |
| 2015-10-01 | 101.5917306 | 105.8098012 |
| 2015-11-01 | 103.4959425 | 105.7535863 |
| 2015-12-01 | 102.9388151 | 105.5107096 |
| 2016-01-01 | 102.2018042 | 105.105955 |
| 2016-02-01 | 102.6973308 | 105.6394306 |
| 2016-03-01 | 100.4234177 | 106.0308003 |
| 2016-04-01 | 99.36755743 | 105.3196207 |
| 2016-05-01 | 98.73721828 | 105.3045167 |
| 2016-06-01 | 97.76809934 | 105.2219125 |
| 2016-07-01 | 97.06445221 | 104.3331356 |
| 2016-08-01 | 96.10117256 | 104.0621003 |
| 2016-09-01 | 93.95917351 | 101.8747322 |
| 2016-10-01 | 92.4461626 | 99.52657469 |
| 2016-11-01 | 91.34646616 | 98.8749136 |
| 2016-12-01 | 90.57532081 | 97.76420324 |
| 2017-01-01 | 90.94967197 | 97.79432868 |
| 2017-02-01 | 89.74536172 | 96.70194607 |
| 2017-03-01 | 90.1474991 | 95.06800825 |
| 2017-04-01 | 90.82132911 | 94.26056135 |
| 2017-05-01 | 91.11351858 | 94.06371935 |
| 2017-06-01 | 91.19016565 | 92.76825728 |
| 2017-07-01 | 91.72180293 | 92.31328525 |
| 2017-08-01 | 92.14557421 | 91.85606313 |
| 2017-09-01 | 92.71752643 | 92.31156539 |
| 2017-10-01 | 93.64220856 | 93.34112117 |
| 2017-11-01 | 95.20654897 | 93.35487668 |
| 2017-12-01 | 96.99133161 | 94.27859598 |
| 2018-01-01 | 97.91191214 | 95.21198505 |
| 2018-02-01 | 98.9953869 | 95.98901273 |
| 2018-03-01 | 99.83802663 | 97.28047229 |
| 2018-04-01 | 99.84709705 | 98.4725312 |
| 2018-05-01 | 99.98972261 | 99.0622595 |
| 2018-06-01 | 100 | 100 |
| 2018-07-01 | 100.34261 | 101.4830732 |
| 2018-08-01 | 100.2250727 | 102.8159042 |
| 2018-09-01 | 101.0843155 | 103.5424249 |
| 2018-10-01 | 102.623734 | 105.3748732 |
| 2018-11-01 | 101.8433053 | 106.4942881 |
| 2018-12-01 | 100.7984769 | 106.5325272 |
| 2019-01-01 | 100.2996852 | 107.4214219 |
| 2019-02-01 | 99.97655423 | 108.262929 |
| 2019-03-01 | 99.23931163 | 108.9005659 |
| 2019-04-01 | 99.49340455 | 110.2054891 |
| 2019-05-01 | 100.1796573 | 111.2612503 |
| 2019-06-01 | 101.0182907 | 111.720591 |
| 2019-07-01 | 101.6290638 | 112.9035533 |
| 2019-08-01 | 101.8830327 | 113.7512631 |
| 2019-09-01 | 101.5742996 | 115.1293378 |
| 2019-10-01 | 100.4910929 | 115.4585492 |
| 2019-11-01 | 100.3289855 | 115.4102894 |
| 2019-12-01 | 100.2047719 | 116.775946 |
| 2020-01-01 | 99.14038038 | 117.0329252 |
| 2020-02-01 | 97.22078548 | 117.6652641 |
| 2020-03-01 | 95.62845998 | 118.4379156 |
| 2020-04-01 | 95.76537324 | 117.3394966 |
| 2020-05-01 | 95.73550948 | 115.6024848 |
| 2020-06-01 | 95.9329428 | 115.2344499 |
| 2020-07-01 | 96.2907435 | 114.742081 |
| 2020-08-01 | 97.21726023 | 114.7723708 |
| 2020-09-01 | 97.67159869 | 115.1465182 |
| 2020-10-01 | 99.49515558 | 114.7556105 |
| 2020-11-01 | 102.998253 | 115.3137523 |
| 2020-12-01 | 106.3416298 | 115.279977 |
| 2021-01-01 | 109.7440726 | 115.6948906 |
| 2021-02-01 | 113.9917966 | 115.6488285 |
| 2021-03-01 | 119.2638112 | 115.9312575 |
| 2021-04-01 | 121.8141956 | 117.1550069 |
| 2021-05-01 | 123.4443303 | 119.04313 |
| 2021-06-01 | 124.7861852 | 120.8155258 |
| 2021-07-01 | 125.8185539 | 121.6987984 |
| 2021-08-01 | 126.6058068 | 122.8618244 |
| 2021-09-01 | 129.4648704 | 124.0287211 |
| 2021-10-01 | 130.4228211 | 125.4900468 |
| 2021-11-01 | 131.0846674 | 128.1941358 |
| 2021-12-01 | 133.8572974 | 130.2172932 |
| 2022-01-01 | 136.1147263 | 130.7216689 |
| 2022-02-01 | 138.6060689 | 131.8115112 |
| 2022-03-01 | 141.3486188 | 133.9253785 |
| 2022-04-01 | 141.9200854 | 135.1220801 |
| 2022-05-01 | 143.1447661 | 137.0229996 |
| 2022-06-01 | 146.2706963 | 137.9210584 |
| 2022-07-01 | 147.8112315 | 137.7034857 |
| 2022-08-01 | 150.3306999 | 138.0365578 |
| 2022-09-01 | 151.6425757 | 137.8050204 |
| 2022-10-01 | 150.6669845 | 139.2163927 |
| 2022-11-01 | 146.0867032 | 138.4909816 |
| 2022-12-01 | 141.847255 | 137.9437857 |
| 2023-01-01 | 139.3704959 | 139.3344202 |
| 2023-02-01 | 135.6620712 | 140.3856156 |
| 2023-03-01 | 130.8348532 | 140.3929441 |
| 2023-04-01 | 128.6084551 | 140.8140285 |
| 2023-05-01 | 126.5693521 | 140.8359708 |
| 2023-06-01 | 122.0041685 | 141.5389483 |
| 2023-07-01 | 119.3640882 | 143.8074056 |
| 2023-08-01 | 115.6132681 | 145.163238 |
| 2023-09-01 | 112.8338618 | 146.5278193 |
| 2023-10-01 | 112.6139144 | 147.0746664 |
| 2023-11-01 | 113.2131108 | 147.6987503 |
| 2023-12-01 | 111.926808 | 148.193924 |
Note: The data extend through December 2023. Vertical line signifies the start of the 2018-19 tariff hikes.
Source: United Nations Comtrade database; FRB staff calculations.
Figure 3: Change in China’s share of U.S. imports at 2-digit HS level, 2017-2023
| Harmonized System level | Non-tariffed goods | Tariffed goods |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | -12.95598993 | -5.086999804 |
| 6 | -2.25723221 | -0.384094615 |
| 8 | 6.246934554 | -0.355438904 |
| 15 | -1.266657588 | 4.775826454 |
| 21 | 0 | -1.82397374 |
| 25 | -1.249913293 | -5.975670704 |
| 26 | -1.057581259 | 0.058714455 |
| 27 | -0.023789613 | -0.253370188 |
| 28 | -0.802398822 | -2.194895647 |
| 29 | -6.833788611 | -3.341589281 |
| 33 | 0.161332658 | -5.83598475 |
| 34 | 2.025419624 | -2.939474558 |
| 36 | 0.179167338 | -1.959823693 |
| 38 | 4.448613745 | -3.932308912 |
| 39 | -1.523713345 | -5.769152804 |
| 44 | -5.055336106 | -11.33330936 |
| 49 | -5.350133052 | -12.90626022 |
| 54 | 3.79130738 | -13.96789514 |
| 58 | -1.961010116 | -12.45462309 |
| 61 | -5.257894766 | -11.15850216 |
| 62 | -5.066070397 | -14.78456042 |
| 63 | -3.261268006 | -7.81011264 |
| 66 | -1.302991871 | 0.847914051 |
| 67 | -1.818116245 | -7.125043307 |
| 69 | -14.80402997 | -12.01935806 |
| 70 | 0.760093128 | -12.87505142 |
| 71 | -1.897494829 | -2.95279355 |
| 72 | -0.091263103 | -0.536764158 |
| 73 | 1.796649391 | -10.64889394 |
| 74 | -3.567345532 | -2.292653935 |
| 78 | 1.129104576 | 0.705596738 |
| 79 | -0.493742199 | -7.050877364 |
| 81 | -3.423034069 | -2.249669795 |
| 82 | -0.382951235 | -10.46140517 |
| 83 | -0.367870097 | -11.19431297 |
| 84 | -14.94303738 | -12.11172686 |
| 86 | -1.139460436 | -9.805298035 |
| 87 | 3.473553193 | -0.939128399 |
| 89 | -10.48495688 | -2.31007084 |
| 90 | -1.059463914 | -5.983671301 |
| 91 | -7.562063332 | -7.540088888 |
| 92 | -4.427692281 | -7.471175869 |
| 95 | -6.861361474 | -11.62549841 |
| 96 | 3.925045623 | -4.034227695 |
Note: Tariffed status is determined at the HS 2-digit level. The data shows 2017 through 2023.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure 4: Change in China’s share of U.S. imports relative to 2017
| Year | Total difference | Tariffed goods contribution | Non-tariffed goods contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -7.730584483 | -6.83811636 | -0.892468123 |
| 2022 | -5.049512637 | -5.446478281 | 0.396965644 |
| 2021 | -3.708505236 | -4.725313022 | 1.016807787 |
| 2020 | -2.946999762 | -3.660737345 | 0.713737583 |
| 2019 | -3.48187027 | -3.254183708 | -0.227686562 |
| 2018 | -0.365716087 | -0.056891974 | -0.308824113 |
Note: The data extend through December 2023. Black dots present changes in aggregate imports.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; FRB staff calculations.
Figure 5: Change in China’s share relative to 2017
European Union
| Year | Total difference | Tariffed goods contribution | Non-tariffed goods contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -0.294281378 | -0.094745986 | -0.199535391 |
| 2019 | 0.238987189 | 0.488090593 | -0.249103404 |
| 2020 | 2.428639851 | 2.101957981 | 0.32668187 |
| 2021 | 2.048717578 | 1.84176364 | 0.206953938 |
| 2022 | 0.612406586 | 1.586629251 | -0.974222665 |
ASEAN
| Year | Total difference | Tariffed goods contribution | Non-tariffed goods contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.059051236 | 0.166631469 | -0.107580233 |
| 2019 | 1.763005517 | 1.690181397 | 0.072824119 |
| 2020 | 3.650586527 | 3.319596182 | 0.330990345 |
| 2021 | 3.983092436 | 3.113085051 | 0.870007385 |
| 2022 | 2.999722256 | 2.670913774 | 0.328808482 |
Canada
| Year | Total difference | Tariffed goods contribution | Non-tariffed goods contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.060690922 | 0.092234213 | -0.031543291 |
| 2019 | -0.156310244 | -0.043582562 | -0.112727682 |
| 2020 | 1.478838996 | 1.077026822 | 0.401812174 |
| 2021 | 1.331414331 | 1.07550921 | 0.255905121 |
| 2022 | 0.891072691 | 0.865029518 | 0.026043172 |
Mexico
| Year | Total difference | Tariffed goods contribution | Non-tariffed goods contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.348201291 | 0.174861277 | 0.173340014 |
| 2019 | 0.600846308 | 0.136660945 | 0.464185364 |
| 2020 | 1.554810947 | 0.024370701 | 1.530440247 |
| 2021 | 2.337571481 | 0.518960723 | 1.818610759 |
| 2022 | 1.993038083 | 1.069615644 | 0.923422439 |
Note: Black dots present changes in aggregate imports.
Source: United Nations Comtrade database; FRB staff calculations.
Figure 6: Elasticity Over Time
| Horizon (in years) | Elasticity | Upper bound of CI | Lower bound of CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 1.186151 | 1.451581 | 0.9207215 |
| 2 | 2.435389 | 2.714402 | 2.156377 |
| 3 | 3.057009 | 3.39834 | 2.715678 |
| 4 | 3.990325 | 4.393472 | 3.587178 |
Last Update:
April 12, 2024