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High tech business entry in the pandemic era, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Net establishment gains, high tech vs. non-tech

Log change; 2019 = 0

Year High tech Non-tech
2013 -1.3 -1.0
2014 -1.0 -0.6
2015 -1.2 -0.3
2016 -0.6 -0.6
2017 -2.9 -1.1
2018 0.7 0.5
2019 0.0 0.0
2020 0.0 0.2
2021 3.2 0.4
2022 8.3 2.8
2023 4.4 1.8

Note: Annual (log) gains versus 2019; average gains weighted by industry average 2013-2019 establishments. High tech defined as in Business Dynamics Statistics.

Source: QCEW.

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Figure 2. Year interaction effects, high tech vs. non-tech growth

Unweighted

Year Coefficient Upper bound, 95% interval Lower bound, 95% interval
2013 -0.8 2.0 -3.7
2014 -1.7 0.0 -3.5
2015 -0.8 0.8 -2.3
2016 0.1 1.7 -1.4
2017 -1.9 1.4 -5.1
2018 0.0 1.8 -1.8
2019 0.0 0.0 0.0
2020 -0.1 1.4 -1.6
2021 2.2 4.5 -0.1
2022 5.4 8.7 2.1
2023 2.6 4.3 0.9

Weighted

Year Coefficient Upper bound, 95% interval Lower bound, 95% interval
2013 -0.2 2.1 -2.6
2014 -0.5 1.1 -2.0
2015 -0.9 0.4 -2.2
2016 0.0 1.3 -1.3
2017 -1.8 0.6 0.0
2018 0.2 2.6 -2.1
2019 0.0 0.0 0.0
2020 -0.3 1.4 -2.0
2021 2.7 4.4 1.1
2022 5.5 8.4 2.6
2023 2.5 3.8 1.2

Note: Dashed lines are 95% confidence intervals. Year effect*high tech interaction coefficients.

Source: QCEW and author calculations.

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Figure 3. Establishment births at new and incumbent firms

Estab. births (thousands)

Year New firms Incumbent firms
1994 404 166
1995 421 183
1996 414 195
1997 427 212
1998 413 230
1999 408 242
2000 417 257
2001 406 265
2002 393 266
2003 405 258
2004 406 248
2005 431 249
2006 457 259
2007 437 266
2008 402 275
2009 342 267
2010 326 235
2011 347 236
2012 366 265
2013 365 263
2014 371 282
2015 396 282
2016 413 320
2017 413 321
2018 411 323
2019 421 350
2020 416 352
2021 438 401
2022 510 555
2023 501 553
Year Incumbents' share (%)
1994 29
1995 30
1996 32
1997 33
1998 36
1999 37
2000 38
2001 40
2002 40
2003 39
2004 38
2005 37
2006 36
2007 38
2008 41
2009 44
2010 42
2011 40
2012 42
2013 42
2014 43
2015 42
2016 44
2017 44
2018 44
2019 45
2020 46
2021 48
2022 52
2023 53

Note: Y axes may not start at zero.

Source: Business Employment Dynamics (BED).

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Figure 4. Incumbent and new firm establishment births by sector

Diff. vs. 2013-19 pace (1000s)

Sector Incumbent firms (estabs) New firms (estabs)
Con 1 8
Ed/Health 29 20
FIRE 14 7
Info 17 2
L&H 2 2
Mfg 4 0
Nat Res 0 0
Prof & Biz 65 13
Ret 0 0
T&W 2 6
Who 2 -1

Diff. vs. 2013-19 pace (logs)

Sector Incumbent firms (estabs) New firms (estabs)
Con 0.05 0.20
Ed/Health 0.33 0.29
FIRE 0.41 0.21
Info 0.97 0.35
L&H 0.15 0.04
Mfg 0.44 0.04
Nat Res 0.08 -0.02
Prof & Biz 0.59 0.17
Ret 0.00 0.00
T&W 0.32 0.37
Who 0.06 -0.11

Note: 2020-2023. Establishment births. Solid line is 45-degree line. Years end in March.

Source: Business Employment Dynamics (BED).

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Figure 5. Predicted firm births from business applications

Log predicted births; 2019 = 0

Year Month Professional, sci. and tech. services Information Manufacturing
2013 1 0.05 -0.12 0.16
2013 2 0.05 -0.13 0.17
2013 3 -0.04 -0.22 0.07
2013 4 -0.02 -0.22 0.09
2013 5 -0.01 -0.20 0.09
2013 6 0.00 -0.19 0.09
2013 7 0.00 -0.18 0.08
2013 8 0.01 -0.17 0.09
2013 9 -0.01 -0.19 0.07
2013 10 0.00 -0.20 0.07
2013 11 -0.01 -0.22 0.09
2013 12 0.01 -0.18 0.13
2014 1 -0.03 -0.19 0.09
2014 2 -0.04 -0.20 0.07
2014 3 -0.05 -0.23 0.02
2014 4 -0.02 -0.22 0.04
2014 5 -0.01 -0.22 0.05
2014 6 -0.02 -0.22 0.07
2014 7 -0.02 -0.23 0.07
2014 8 0.00 -0.25 0.07
2014 9 0.00 -0.23 0.05
2014 10 0.00 -0.22 0.06
2014 11 -0.02 -0.21 0.05
2014 12 -0.04 -0.25 0.05
2015 1 0.01 -0.17 0.10
2015 2 0.01 -0.15 0.11
2015 3 0.03 -0.10 0.12
2015 4 0.00 -0.19 0.06
2015 5 -0.01 -0.23 0.06
2015 6 -0.02 -0.24 0.05
2015 7 -0.01 -0.18 0.05
2015 8 -0.02 -0.08 0.06
2015 9 -0.01 -0.03 0.07
2015 10 -0.01 -0.03 0.08
2015 11 0.00 -0.05 0.08
2015 12 -0.02 -0.09 0.05
2016 1 0.00 -0.08 0.07
2016 2 0.00 -0.09 0.07
2016 3 0.01 -0.08 0.08
2016 4 -0.02 -0.12 0.05
2016 5 -0.01 -0.11 0.03
2016 6 -0.04 -0.13 0.00
2016 7 -0.02 -0.11 0.00
2016 8 -0.05 -0.12 0.02
2016 9 0.01 -0.09 0.06
2016 10 -0.02 -0.13 0.05
2016 11 -0.02 -0.13 0.05
2016 12 -0.01 -0.14 0.05
2017 1 0.00 -0.07 0.07
2017 2 0.01 0.00 0.07
2017 3 0.00 0.07 0.06
2017 4 -0.01 0.07 0.05
2017 5 -0.02 0.05 0.02
2017 6 -0.01 0.05 0.01
2017 7 -0.02 0.06 0.02
2017 8 -0.02 0.08 0.04
2017 9 -0.04 0.08 0.02
2017 10 -0.04 0.06 0.00
2017 11 -0.03 0.06 -0.01
2017 12 -0.03 0.06 0.00
2018 1 0.03 0.10 0.03
2018 2 0.05 0.10 0.03
2018 3 0.08 0.13 0.04
2018 4 0.05 0.11 0.02
2018 5 0.04 0.11 0.04
2018 6 0.05 0.11 0.04
2018 7 0.05 0.08 0.03
2018 8 0.05 0.06 0.00
2018 9 0.05 0.06 0.00
2018 10 0.06 0.09 0.01
2018 11 0.04 0.10 -0.02
2018 12 0.03 0.09 -0.01
2019 1 -0.01 0.01 -0.04
2019 2 0.00 0.00 -0.01
2019 3 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02
2019 4 0.03 0.03 0.00
2019 5 0.03 0.02 0.01
2019 6 0.02 0.02 0.01
2019 7 0.00 0.02 0.00
2019 8 0.00 0.01 0.00
2019 9 -0.01 -0.01 0.00
2019 10 -0.01 -0.01 0.01
2019 11 -0.02 -0.01 0.00
2019 12 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 1 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06
2020 2 -0.02 -0.06 -0.09
2020 3 -0.04 -0.10 -0.16
2020 4 -0.06 -0.12 -0.17
2020 5 -0.08 -0.14 -0.16
2020 6 -0.04 -0.06 -0.09
2020 7 0.13 0.10 0.07
2020 8 0.23 0.22 0.17
2020 9 0.28 0.27 0.25
2020 10 0.22 0.24 0.24
2020 11 0.18 0.20 0.21
2020 12 0.10 0.12 0.12
2021 1 0.14 0.17 0.14
2021 2 0.17 0.17 0.13
2021 3 0.25 0.24 0.21
2021 4 0.24 0.21 0.19
2021 5 0.24 0.24 0.18
2021 6 0.23 0.23 0.17
2021 7 0.22 0.21 0.14
2021 8 0.19 0.19 0.13
2021 9 0.19 0.17 0.12
2021 10 0.20 0.17 0.12
2021 11 0.23 0.17 0.13
2021 12 0.23 0.18 0.14
2022 1 0.22 0.19 0.14
2022 2 0.19 0.19 0.12
2022 3 0.18 0.16 0.11
2022 4 0.16 0.13 0.08
2022 5 0.17 0.11 0.09
2022 6 0.19 0.12 0.07
2022 7 0.21 0.13 0.07
2022 8 0.20 0.11 0.03
2022 9 0.21 0.11 0.04
2022 10 0.21 0.09 0.07
2022 11 0.21 0.09 0.10
2022 12 0.21 0.08 0.07
2023 1 0.20 0.07 0.00
2023 2 0.22 0.08 -0.01
2023 3 0.26 0.11 0.04
2023 4 0.29 0.13 0.07
2023 5 0.29 0.10 0.02
2023 6 0.26 0.07 -0.01
2023 7 0.26 0.07 -0.01
2023 8 0.29 0.12 0.03
2023 9 0.31 0.14 0.02
2023 10 0.30 0.15 0.01
2023 11 0.29 0.14 -0.01
2023 12 0.28 0.15 0.04
2024 1 0.29 0.14 0.06
2024 2 0.28 0.12 0.06

Note: Log 8-quarter predicted firm births (PBF8Q) relative to 2019 average. Seasonally adjusted. 3-month moving average.

Source: Business Formation Statistics.

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Last Update: April 19, 2024