Accessible Version

Inflation Perceptions During the Covid Pandemic and Recovery, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Short-term Median Inflation Perceptions and Actual Inflation

Quarterly - Percent

Date Perceived inflation over past 12 months
2016q1 1.7
2016q2 1.6
2016q3 1.7
2016q4 1.9
2017q1 1.6
2017q2 1.6
2017q3 1.8
2017q4 2
2018q1 1.9
2018q2 2.4
2018q3 2.1
2018q4 2.3
2019q1 2
2019q2 2.3
2019q3 2.1
2019q4 2.2
2020q1 2
2020q2 1.7
2020q3 2.6
2020q4 2.1
2021q1 2.1
2021q2 4.7
2021q3 5.3
2021q4 6.5
2022q1 7.3
2022q2 9.5
2022q3 9.6
2022q4 10
2023q1 9.3
2023q2 7.3
2023q3 6.4
2023q4 6.4

Monthly - Percent

Date CPI: 12-month change
14-Jan 1.56
14-Feb 1.12
14-Mar 1.61
14-Apr 2.02
14-May 2.17
14-Jun 2.06
14-Jul 1.97
14-Aug 1.72
14-Sep 1.68
14-Oct 1.61
14-Nov 1.23
14-Dec 0.65
15-Jan -0.23
15-Feb -0.09
15-Mar -0.02
15-Apr -0.1
15-May 0.04
15-Jun 0.18
15-Jul 0.23
15-Aug 0.24
15-Sep 0.01
15-Oct 0.13
15-Nov 0.44
15-Dec 0.64
16-Jan 1.24
16-Feb 0.85
16-Mar 0.89
16-Apr 1.17
16-May 1.08
16-Jun 1.08
16-Jul 0.87
16-Aug 1.06
16-Sep 1.55
16-Oct 1.69
16-Nov 1.68
16-Dec 2.05
17-Jan 2.51
17-Feb 2.81
17-Mar 2.44
17-Apr 2.18
17-May 1.86
17-Jun 1.64
17-Jul 1.73
17-Aug 1.93
17-Sep 2.18
17-Oct 2.02
17-Nov 2.17
17-Dec 2.13
18-Jan 2.15
18-Feb 2.26
18-Mar 2.33
18-Apr 2.47
18-May 2.78
18-Jun 2.81
18-Jul 2.85
18-Aug 2.64
18-Sep 2.33
18-Oct 2.49
18-Nov 2.15
18-Dec 2
19-Jan 1.55
19-Feb 1.52
19-Mar 1.85
19-Apr 1.99
19-May 1.79
19-Jun 1.65
19-Jul 1.78
19-Aug 1.75
19-Sep 1.72
19-Oct 1.77
19-Nov 2.06
19-Dec 2.31
20-Jan 2.5
20-Feb 2.34
20-Mar 1.54
20-Apr 0.35
20-May 0.23
20-Jun 0.72
20-Jul 1.01
20-Aug 1.31
20-Sep 1.37
20-Oct 1.18
20-Nov 1.17
20-Dec 1.32
21-Jan 1.39
21-Feb 1.69
21-Mar 2.63
21-Apr 4.13
21-May 4.92
21-Jun 5.28
21-Jul 5.22
21-Aug 5.19
21-Sep 5.38
21-Oct 6.24
21-Nov 6.86
21-Dec 7.19
22-Jan 7.6
22-Feb 7.95
22-Mar 8.52
22-Apr 8.23
22-May 8.5
22-Jun 8.93
22-Jul 8.41
22-Aug 8.23
22-Sep 8.21
22-Oct 7.76
22-Nov 7.14
22-Dec 6.44
23-Jan 6.35
23-Feb 5.99
23-Mar 4.99
23-Apr 4.96
23-May 4.13
23-Jun 3.09
23-Jul 3.3
23-Aug 3.71
23-Sep 3.69
23-Oct 3.23
23-Nov 3.12
23-Dec 3.3

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 2: News Heard about Prices

Quarterly - Percent

Date Perceived inflation over past 12 months
2016q1 2.5
2016q2 2.6
2016q3 2.7
2016q4 2.7
2017q1 2.4
2017q2 2.4
2017q3 2.4
2017q4 2.5
2018q1 2.5
2018q2 2.4
2018q3 2.6
2018q4 2.5
2019q1 2.4
2019q2 2.6
2019q3 2.5
2019q4 2.6
2020q1 2.4
2020q2 2.5
2020q3 2.7
2020q4 2.5
2021q1 2.4
2021q2 2.8
2021q3 2.8
2021q4 2.9
2022q1 3
2022q2 3.2
2022q3 3.4
2022q4 3.5
2023q1 3.6
2023q2 4.4
2023q3 4.1
2023q4 4.6

Monthly - Percent

Date Lower Prices (Good) Higher prices (Bad)
2016m1 8 1
2016m2 8 1
2016m3 3 2
2016m4 4 2
2016m5 4 2
2016m6 2 2
2016m7 1 2
2016m8 2 1
2016m9 1 1
2016m10 1 1
2016m11 1 2
2016m12 1 2
2017m1 1 1
2017m2 0 2
2017m3 0 1
2017m4 1 1
2017m5 0 1
2017m6 0 2
2017m7 2 0
2017m8 0 1
2017m9 0 1
2017m10 0 1
2017m11 0 1
2017m12 0 2
20184m1 0 2
20184m2 0 2
20184m3 0 1
20184m4 0 3
20184m5 0 4
20184m6 0 4
20184m7 0 3
20184m8 0 4
20184m9 0 2
20184m10 0 3
20184m11 0 3
20184m12 1 2
2019m1 0 3
2019m2 0 2
2019m3 0 3
2019m4 0 2
2019m5 1 4
2019m6 1 3
2019m7 0 2
2019m8 0 3
2019m9 0 5
2019m10 0 2
2019m11 1 2
2019m12 0 2
2020m1 1 2
2020m2 0 1
2020m3 1 1
2020m4 1 0
2020m5 1 1
2020m6 0 1
2020m7 0 1
2020m8 0 1
2020m9 0 1
2020m10 0 0
2020m11 0 0
2020m12 0 1
2021m1 0 2
2021m2 0 3
2021m3 0 6
2021m4 0 6
2021m5 0 9
2021m6 0 17
2021m7 1 17
2021m8 0 14
2021m9 1 11
2021m10 0 15
2021m11 0 24
2021m12 0 25
2022m1 0 24
2022m2 0 30
2022m3 0 33
2022m4 0 31
2022m5 0 32
2022m6 0 38
2022m7 1 37
2022m8 3 29
2022m9 5 28
2022m10 2 27
2022m11 1 32
2022m12 3 25
2023m1 6 21
2023m2 5 22
2023m3 4 19
2023m4 3 18
2023m5 3 19
2023m6 3 16
2023m7 6 14
2023m8 5 12
2023m9 4 14
2023m10 3 16
2023m11 4 17

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 3: Median Inflation Perceptions and Expectations

Quarterly - Percent

Date Perceived inflation over past 12 months
2016q1 1.7
2016q2 1.6
2016q3 1.7
2016q4 1.9
2017q1 1.6
2017q2 1.6
2017q3 1.8
2017q4 2
2018q1 1.9
2018q2 2.4
2018q3 2.1
2018q4 2.3
2019q1 2
2019q2 2.3
2019q3 2.1
2019q4 2.2
2020q1 2
2020q2 1.7
2020q3 2.6
2020q4 2.1
2021q1 2.1
2021q2 4.7
2021q3 5.3
2021q4 6.5
2022q1 7.3
2022q2 9.5
2022q3 9.6
2022q4 10
2023q1 9.3
2023q2 7.3
2023q3 6.4
2023q4 6.4

Monthly - Percent

Date Expected inflation over next 5 to 10 years Expected inflation over next 12 months
14-Jan 2.9 3.1
14-Feb 2.9 3.2
14-Mar 2.9 3.2
14-Apr 2.9 3.2
14-May 2.8 3.3
14-Jun 2.9 3.1
14-Jul 2.7 3.3
14-Aug 2.9 3.2
14-Sep 2.8 3
14-Oct 2.8 2.9
14-Nov 2.6 2.8
14-Dec 2.8 2.8
15-Jan 2.8 2.5
15-Feb 2.7 2.8
15-Mar 2.8 3
15-Apr 2.6 2.6
15-May 2.8 2.8
15-Jun 2.6 2.7
15-Jul 2.8 2.8
15-Aug 2.7 2.8
15-Sep 2.7 2.8
15-Oct 2.5 2.7
15-Nov 2.6 2.7
15-Dec 2.6 2.6
16-Jan 2.7 2.5
16-Feb 2.5 2.5
16-Mar 2.7 2.7
16-Apr 2.5 2.8
16-May 2.5 2.4
16-Jun 2.6 2.6
16-Jul 2.6 2.7
16-Aug 2.5 2.5
16-Sep 2.6 2.4
16-Oct 2.4 2.4
16-Nov 2.6 2.4
16-Dec 2.3 2.2
17-Jan 2.6 2.6
17-Feb 2.5 2.7
17-Mar 2.4 2.5
17-Apr 2.4 2.5
17-May 2.4 2.6
17-Jun 2.5 2.6
17-Jul 2.6 2.6
17-Aug 2.5 2.6
17-Sep 2.5 2.7
17-Oct 2.5 2.4
17-Nov 2.4 2.5
17-Dec 2.4 2.7
18-Jan 2.5 2.7
18-Feb 2.5 2.7
18-Mar 2.5 2.8
18-Apr 2.5 2.7
18-May 2.5 2.8
18-Jun 2.6 3
18-Jul 2.4 2.9
18-Aug 2.6 3
18-Sep 2.5 2.7
18-Oct 2.4 2.9
18-Nov 2.6 2.8
18-Dec 2.5 2.7
19-Jan 2.6 2.7
19-Feb 2.3 2.6
19-Mar 2.5 2.5
19-Apr 2.3 2.5
19-May 2.6 2.9
19-Jun 2.3 2.7
19-Jul 2.5 2.6
19-Aug 2.6 2.7
19-Sep 2.4 2.8
19-Oct 2.3 2.5
19-Nov 2.5 2.5
19-Dec 2.2 2.3
20-Jan 2.5 2.5
20-Feb 2.3 2.4
20-Mar 2.3 2.2
20-Apr 2.5 2.1
20-May 2.7 3.2
20-Jun 2.5 3
20-Jul 2.6 3
20-Aug 2.7 3.1
20-Sep 2.7 2.6
20-Oct 2.4 2.6
20-Nov 2.5 2.8
20-Dec 2.5 2.5
21-Jan 2.7 3
21-Feb 2.7 3.3
21-Mar 2.8 3.1
21-Apr 2.7 3.4
21-May 3 4.6
21-Jun 2.8 4.2
21-Jul 2.8 4.7
21-Aug 2.9 4.6
21-Sep 3 4.6
21-Oct 2.9 4.8
21-Nov 3 4.9
21-Dec 2.9 4.8
22-Jan 3.1 4.9
22-Feb 3 4.9
22-Mar 3 5.4
22-Apr 3 5.4
22-May 3 5.3
22-Jun 3.1 5.3
22-Jul 2.9 5.2
22-Aug 2.9 4.8
22-Sep 2.7 4.7
22-Oct 2.9 5
22-Nov 3 5
22-Dec 3 4.3
23-Jan 2.9 3.9
23-Feb 2.9 4.2
23-Mar 2.9 3.6
23-Apr 3 4.7
23-May 3.1 4.2
23-Jun 3 3.3
23-Jul 3 3.4
23-Aug 3 3.5
23-Sep 2.8 3.2
23-Oct 3 4.2
23-Nov 3.2 4.5
23-Dec 2.9 3.1

Note: The end observation for perceived inflation is November 2023. The end observation for expected inflation is from the December 2023 survey.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 4: Median Short- and Long-term Inflation Perceptions

Percent

Date Perceived inflation over past 5-10 years Perceived inflation over past 12 months
2016q1 2.5 1.7
2016q2 2.6 1.6
2016q3 2.7 1.7
2016q4 2.7 1.9
2017q1 2.4 1.6
2017q2 2.4 1.6
2017q3 2.4 1.8
2017q4 2.5 2
2018q1 2.5 1.9
2018q2 2.4 2.4
2018q3 2.6 2.1
2018q4 2.5 2.3
2019q1 2.4 2
2019q2 2.6 2.3
2019q3 2.5 2.1
2019q4 2.6 2.2
2020q1 2.4 2
2020q2 2.5 1.7
2020q3 2.7 2.6
2020q4 2.5 2.1
2021q1 2.4 2.1
2021q2 2.8 4.7
2021q3 2.8 5.3
2021q4 2.9 6.5
2022q1 3 7.3
2022q2 3.2 9.5
2022q3 3.4 9.6
2022q4 3.5 10
2023q1 3.6 9.3
2023q2 4.4 7.3
2023q3 4.1 6.4
2023q4 4.6 6.4

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 5: Median 12-month Inflation Perceptions for Selected Demographic Groups

Percent

Date Panel A: By political affiliation Panel B: By gender Panel C: By income group Panel D: By race Panel E: By age group
Republican Democrat Independent Male Female Bottom third Middle third Top third White Nonwhite Age 18 to 44 Age 45 to 64 Age 65 plus
2016q1       1.2 2.2 2 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.4
2016q2       1.4 2 2.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.1 2 2.4
2016q3       1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 2.1
2016q4       1.6 2.4 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.4
2017q1 1.9 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 2 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.2
2017q2 1.5 2 1.5 1.5 1.9 2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 2.4
2017q3 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.4 2 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.2
2017q4 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.2 2.1
2018q1 1.4 2.1 2 1.8 2.1 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.4
2018q2 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4
2018q3 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.1 2 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.2
2018q4 1.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.7 2 2.6 2.2
2019q1 1.3 2.5 2 1.7 2.3 2.3 2 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.7 2 2.2
2019q2 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2 2.5 2.6
2019q3 1.5 2.4 2.3 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.8 2.1 2.7
2019q4 1.4 2.7 2.2 2 2.4 2.9 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.2
2020q1 1.3 2.4 2 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.6 1.9 2.1 2
2020q2 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.2 2 1.9
2020q3 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.8 1.9 2.6 2.8 2 2.9 3.1
2020q4 1.8 2.4 2.2 2 2.4 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.4 2.4 2.9
2021q1 2 1.7 2.3 2.1 2 2.8 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.6
2021q2 5.1 3.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 3.9 4.8 3.6 3.8 5.1 4.7
2021q3 7.2 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.4 5 5.3 5.2 4.9 5.5 5.7
2021q4 12.9 5.4 5.5 6.3 7.3 7.2 5.5 7 7.1 5.4 5.4 9.8 6.1
2022q1 9.9 6.1 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.1 7.3 7.3 6.9 8 7.3
2022q2 10.6 7.6 9.6 9.2 9.6 8.3 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.6 8.6 9.8 9.5
2022q3 9.9 8.6 9.9 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.7 9.1 9 10.2 9.4
2022q4 10.3 9 10.3 9.7 10.4 10.2 10 9.9 9.9 10.2 9.8 10.3 10.2
2023q1 10.2 7.2 9.2 8.5 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.4 9.5 8.2 8.3 9.7 9.1
2023q2 9.6 5.6 7.2 7.1 7.9 7 7.3 7.2 7.4 6.5 6.7 8.1 8.4
2023q3 7.9 5 6.9 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.8 5.6 6.6 5.3 6 6.9 6.1
2023q4 7 4.9 7.2 5.5 7.6 7 6.7 5.4 6.4 6.5 5.8 7 6

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 6. Relationship between sentiment and inflation/inflation perceptions, 2016-2023

Left panel: Sentiment and Short-term Inflation Perceptions

The figure is a scatter plot of consumer sentiment and the median inflation perceptions, with fitted linear values for two periods. A line, fitted using observations from February 2016 through February 2020 shows a lack of strong relationship and a line fitting observations from May 2020 through November 2023 shows a negtaive relationship with a slope of -0.29.

Right panel: Sentiment and Actual Inflation

The figure is a scatter plot of consumer sentiment and the the 12-month chnage in total CPI, with fitted linear values for two periods. A line, fitted using observations from Janaury 2016 through February 2020 shows a lack of strong relationship and a line fitting observations from March 2020 through November 2023 shows a negtaive relationship with a slope of -0.18.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 7. Relationship between sentiment and inflation, 1980-2019

The figure is a scatter plot of consumer sentiment and the the 12-month change in total CPI, with fitted linear values for two periods. A line, fitted using observations from 2000 through 2019 shows a slightly negative relationship and a line fitting observations from 1980 through 1999 shows a stronger negtaive relationship with a slope of -0.16.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure A1: Distribution of perceived price changes during the past year
YYYYMM Down Same 1-2 percent 3-4 percent 5 percent 6-9 percent 10-14 percent 15 percent and up
Feb 16 12% 20% 27% 16% 10% 3% 4% 4%
May 16 7% 22% 32% 17% 8% 2% 4% 5%
Aug 16 8% 21% 32% 16% 9% 3% 3% 3%
Nov 16 6% 19% 32% 19% 11% 2% 5% 4%
Feb 17 5% 24% 33% 17% 9% 2% 4% 3%
May 17 4% 23% 34% 19% 8% 3% 3% 3%
Aug 17 5% 20% 36% 17% 9% 2% 4% 3%
Nov 17 3% 17% 40% 20% 8% 2% 4% 4%
Feb 18 2% 21% 35% 21% 7% 2% 5% 4%
May 18 3% 15% 33% 26% 10% 4% 3% 4%
Aug 18 3% 19% 33% 22% 8% 2% 5% 5%
Nov 18 2% 17% 33% 22% 11% 3% 5% 3%
Feb 19 4% 17% 38% 18% 10% 4% 3% 3%
May 19 2% 15% 35% 21% 11% 3% 5% 4%
Aug 19 3% 18% 35% 17% 12% 4% 4% 3%
Nov 19 3% 17% 33% 23% 10% 3% 5% 3%
Feb 20 2% 19% 37% 21% 8% 2% 3% 4%
May 20 14% 22% 25% 16% 8% 2% 4% 6%
Aug 20 8% 16% 23% 18% 14% 4% 8% 6%
Nov 20 9% 17% 26% 13% 13% 4% 8% 5%
Feb 21 9% 21% 24% 14% 10% 6% 5% 8%
May 21 3% 8% 18% 16% 16% 7% 12% 17%
Aug 21 0% 4% 11% 16% 20% 10% 14% 19%
Nov 21 1% 1% 10% 14% 16% 14% 16% 26%
Feb 22 0% 1% 8% 10% 13% 26% 17% 23%
May 22 0% 1% 4% 7% 12% 24% 17% 31%
Aug 22 1% 1% 4% 7% 9% 25% 20% 30%
Nov 22 0% 1% 4% 8% 7% 21% 21% 36%
Feb 23 2% 1% 6% 8% 10% 22% 19% 29%
May 23 3% 3% 9% 12% 11% 20% 15% 24%
Aug 23 4% 4% 9% 13% 15% 15% 13% 22%
Nov 23 3% 4% 7% 18% 13% 16% 13% 23%

Note: Key identifies in order from left to right, bottom to top.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure A2: Distribution of perceived average price changes over the past 5 to 10 years
Down Same 1-2 percent 3-4 percent 5 percent 6-9 percent 10-14 percent 15 percent and up
5% 4% 39% 25% 11% 3% 5% 3%
3% 3% 40% 31% 8% 3% 4% 3%
5% 2% 36% 28% 14% 3% 4% 1%
3% 3% 38% 27% 13% 5% 4% 3%
7% 2% 41% 26% 10% 3% 5% 2%
5% 3% 43% 26% 8% 3% 4% 4%
5% 4% 41% 28% 9% 2% 4% 3%
5% 3% 39% 30% 9% 3% 4% 3%
4% 3% 43% 28% 9% 3% 4% 3%
3% 4% 43% 26% 12% 3% 4% 1%
4% 3% 38% 27% 11% 3% 3% 4%
3% 2% 42% 28% 11% 3% 3% 3%
4% 2% 44% 27% 10% 2% 4% 3%
3% 2% 40% 30% 10% 2% 5% 3%
3% 2% 42% 25% 14% 2% 4% 3%
4% 2% 40% 30% 10% 2% 4% 3%
3% 3% 44% 28% 9% 2% 3% 3%
4% 3% 40% 27% 12% 1% 4% 3%
3% 3% 38% 29% 13% 2% 5% 3%
4% 2% 43% 27% 11% 3% 3% 3%
6% 2% 41% 24% 11% 2% 5% 4%
2% 4% 37% 26% 13% 4% 5% 4%
2% 2% 36% 28% 12% 3% 4% 6%
1% 1% 35% 28% 11% 3% 8% 6%
1% 1% 32% 32% 10% 6% 6% 5%
0% 0% 27% 34% 13% 5% 8% 6%
1% 0% 25% 29% 14% 6% 9% 7%
1% 0% 21% 31% 15% 6% 8% 9%
1% 1% 22% 31% 13% 11% 7% 8%
1% 1% 19% 27% 15% 9% 11% 10%
1% 0% 20% 30% 14% 10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 16% 29% 17% 11% 11% 11%

Note: Key identifies in order from left to right, bottom to top.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Last Update: January 19, 2024