Accessible Version
Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Inflation across Selected Economies since 2008
Headline Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Date | WORLD | CAN | DEU | FRA | GBR | ITA | KOR | MEX | USA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 3.255928135 | 1.7916289 | 2.823722586 | 2.881054151 | 2.515601041 | 2.974050931 | 3.736636939 | 3.786586282 | 4.053751593 |
| 2008.25 | 3.609902392 | 2.305745732 | 2.924753092 | 3.247654159 | 3.306084031 | 3.515692707 | 4.726356647 | 4.803338004 | 4.220109511 |
| 2008.5 | 4.277525839 | 3.379195393 | 3.023484613 | 3.213315176 | 4.382545127 | 3.898769045 | 5.401363474 | 5.352783514 | 5.119210697 |
| 2008.75 | 2.145505337 | 1.854353133 | 1.621656963 | 1.764733237 | 3.618368922 | 2.808756558 | 4.394101134 | 6.019271771 | 1.583199297 |
| 2009 | 0.789805979 | 1.206070522 | 0.808781355 | 0.628722094 | 2.914528615 | 1.545852492 | 3.811060712 | 5.947896189 | -0.184406622 |
| 2009.25 | -0.026372989 | 0.087631723 | 0.268658578 | -0.239765832 | 1.993163139 | 0.84172042 | 2.744996641 | 5.794255667 | -0.946608521 |
| 2009.5 | -0.712497714 | -0.841442327 | -0.1910933 | -0.406333029 | 1.29328403 | 0.145560339 | 1.983429809 | 5.032018395 | -1.620010478 |
| 2009.75 | 0.830744295 | 0.813252099 | 0.420408943 | 0.370585131 | 1.592151956 | 0.617626003 | 2.375017119 | 3.911382304 | 1.476703582 |
| 2010 | 1.690784132 | 1.537826843 | 0.954387203 | 1.270458489 | 2.309395994 | 1.198057252 | 2.885752967 | 4.612312773 | 2.325317866 |
| 2010.25 | 1.571397708 | 1.39173128 | 1.370404703 | 1.624145106 | 2.510912569 | 1.411280483 | 2.66739246 | 3.878624796 | 1.759695537 |
| 2010.5 | 1.340566968 | 1.876232462 | 1.103296827 | 1.55927202 | 2.316134987 | 1.587333892 | 2.8590393 | 3.624172547 | 1.195706537 |
| 2010.75 | 1.570165277 | 2.231211669 | 1.326024066 | 1.626335494 | 2.708380871 | 1.794734818 | 3.166807596 | 4.176067719 | 1.222286243 |
| 2011 | 2.087740406 | 2.502259745 | 1.769955901 | 1.766543743 | 3.493642596 | 2.283365765 | 3.717142877 | 3.372054336 | 2.125475038 |
| 2011.25 | 2.705579082 | 3.341187639 | 1.983976332 | 2.044729823 | 3.66980052 | 2.624262511 | 3.946079121 | 3.244046527 | 3.291347277 |
| 2011.5 | 2.944690702 | 2.98613061 | 2.318728602 | 2.118811826 | 4.017184419 | 2.823050902 | 4.247345822 | 3.330499884 | 3.648573648 |
| 2011.75 | 2.692224564 | 2.624383733 | 2.196254682 | 2.402918833 | 3.947409021 | 3.254882441 | 3.869791024 | 3.441702911 | 3.290002446 |
| 2012 | 2.369196322 | 2.276611902 | 2.105343517 | 2.280709652 | 3.060740176 | 3.22776783 | 2.934805709 | 3.791537042 | 2.790034472 |
| 2012.25 | 1.824257648 | 1.547426017 | 1.763448228 | 2.003757007 | 2.501452358 | 3.203306648 | 2.434068257 | 3.795716274 | 1.870319968 |
| 2012.5 | 1.704317585 | 1.268632345 | 1.904126145 | 1.946643677 | 2.210225204 | 3.150943677 | 1.606726492 | 4.493497794 | 1.6708248 |
| 2012.75 | 1.748721639 | 0.959832 | 1.860350586 | 1.505422958 | 2.39886704 | 2.449100512 | 1.67450578 | 4.0296413 | 1.885675413 |
| 2013 | 1.523463311 | 0.928967904 | 1.523424325 | 1.047239262 | 2.423943554 | 1.827460919 | 1.544514032 | 3.609541212 | 1.725235711 |
| 2013.25 | 1.337264277 | 0.737602388 | 1.66129087 | 0.839422067 | 2.338480857 | 1.179460681 | 1.221768067 | 4.367512313 | 1.404808985 |
| 2013.5 | 1.457447064 | 1.144431371 | 1.61902447 | 0.914143393 | 2.365963368 | 1.073114953 | 1.365685842 | 3.382468677 | 1.493740506 |
| 2013.75 | 1.256543811 | 0.923668107 | 1.328328311 | 0.637349317 | 1.939163426 | 0.636414808 | 1.040083238 | 3.580824625 | 1.200081967 |
| 2014 | 1.359812007 | 1.32380866 | 1.287570266 | 0.779959464 | 1.628805762 | 0.535118014 | 1.130840979 | 4.077922945 | 1.419778227 |
| 2014.25 | 1.820406219 | 2.207358011 | 0.926924895 | 0.605787187 | 1.618378616 | 0.434561282 | 1.603203332 | 3.521115718 | 2.058998757 |
| 2014.5 | 1.579333681 | 2.011596646 | 0.85288781 | 0.367326226 | 1.48001362 | -0.100113022 | 1.371650699 | 4.062419589 | 1.775121937 |
| 2014.75 | 1.137113173 | 1.954810722 | 0.568989403 | 0.273816146 | 1.039060134 | 0.100113022 | 0.959079738 | 4.099515031 | 1.157278495 |
| 2015 | 0.370304277 | 1.094362202 | 0.531635959 | -0.22366167 | 0.40309691 | -0.233758129 | 0.710748103 | 3.017691783 | -0.112957676 |
| 2015.25 | 0.340550961 | 0.874755944 | 0.812870428 | 0.229975538 | 0.367217923 | 0.066688859 | 0.56496276 | 2.903761298 | 0.036999119 |
| 2015.5 | 0.298892229 | 1.161581705 | 0.353229253 | 0.059979948 | 0.333334972 | 0.166801881 | 0.651473805 | 2.571052409 | 0.15847951 |
| 2015.75 | 0.453713851 | 1.317197268 | 0.741925403 | 0.096664347 | 0.366117907 | 0.199933303 | 0.888340597 | 2.249347796 | 0.399671586 |
| 2016 | 0.675868401 | 1.527953886 | 0.24712793 | -0.033423827 | 0.701516927 | -0.100354912 | 0.870287798 | 2.665791604 | 0.986949399 |
| 2016.25 | 0.679792591 | 1.519149213 | 0.210964232 | 0.006656343 | 0.763487912 | -0.367336581 | 0.842910842 | 2.535776206 | 1.103917255 |
| 2016.5 | 0.781561543 | 1.251966283 | 0.49243853 | 0.259500674 | 1.026324619 | -0.033335146 | 0.742367431 | 2.723262198 | 1.150507789 |
| 2016.75 | 1.291153381 | 1.37753652 | 0.876122028 | 0.501780904 | 1.516676694 | 0.166309988 | 1.407203721 | 3.193055652 | 1.79084584 |
| 2017 | 1.978129244 | 1.864857418 | 1.574285162 | 1.259046197 | 2.140705644 | 1.32980604 | 2.188839614 | 4.872943998 | 2.554234786 |
| 2017.25 | 1.662448829 | 1.368297027 | 1.29124259 | 0.861788537 | 2.546659516 | 1.461333619 | 1.912101991 | 5.941920758 | 1.872942966 |
| 2017.5 | 1.7230842 | 1.364422213 | 1.497505655 | 0.850275563 | 2.665091933 | 1.160293704 | 2.212652357 | 6.227855274 | 1.926265257 |
| 2017.75 | 1.778222164 | 1.765428631 | 1.386018286 | 1.143662775 | 2.743431898 | 0.92623826 | 1.393470567 | 6.397336843 | 2.085879197 |
| 2018 | 1.806098141 | 2.057215295 | 1.310367576 | 1.315098403 | 2.446212881 | 0.6911365 | 1.079078856 | 5.209924785 | 2.223708323 |
| 2018.25 | 2.057564786 | 2.281466062 | 1.752924784 | 1.922007612 | 2.263045565 | 0.951602612 | 1.491716774 | 4.466087017 | 2.651328703 |
| 2018.5 | 2.187599522 | 2.674226886 | 1.951116794 | 2.202621678 | 2.282914139 | 1.472301568 | 1.545220645 | 4.733448975 | 2.575466216 |
| 2018.75 | 1.926394174 | 2.008603105 | 2.009947111 | 1.895728777 | 2.079470171 | 1.470850546 | 1.745169919 | 4.724210563 | 2.189376393 |
| 2019 | 1.411790092 | 1.571303539 | 1.462357711 | 1.233687704 | 1.796170071 | 0.914142267 | 0.552046087 | 4.071488367 | 1.616876946 |
| 2019.25 | 1.590136997 | 2.157022707 | 1.622206086 | 1.101140118 | 1.904224361 | 0.813147974 | 0.65107608 | 4.119607772 | 1.805976731 |
| 2019.5 | 1.34148918 | 1.89871069 | 1.34681657 | 0.978120316 | 1.771062018 | 0.453662197 | 0.048620573 | 3.186612971 | 1.734273653 |
| 2019.75 | 1.457567526 | 2.04214364 | 1.173529025 | 1.100076339 | 1.424177041 | 0.226871188 | 0.285755294 | 2.927328672 | 2.027883851 |
| 2020 | 1.556170913 | 1.814660566 | 1.507819222 | 1.177311791 | 1.641668671 | 0.227232174 | 0.97938881 | 3.396874756 | 2.101662806 |
| 2020.25 | 0.332494366 | 0 | 0.834589481 | 0.297345378 | 0.800745297 | -0.129659582 | -0.005018246 | 2.709045701 | 0.421709284 |
| 2020.5 | 0.702390397 | 0.24396113 | -0.066910013 | 0.32816335 | 0.766988952 | -0.421193039 | 0.713798468 | 3.764203215 | 1.223438003 |
| 2020.75 | 0.60591205 | 0.800488377 | -0.066686903 | 0.104891916 | 0.735069829 | -0.291785142 | 0.460170311 | 3.4908817 | 1.21852673 |
| 2021 | 1.281977289 | 1.495447459 | 1.485421335 | 0.716211329 | 0.886989834 | 0.51746528 | 1.425535362 | 3.951740187 | 1.877026458 |
| 2021.25 | 2.990212851 | 3.281353994 | 2.170420801 | 1.379204386 | 2.064430479 | 1.257070127 | 2.443305994 | 5.76139687 | 4.685759582 |
| 2021.5 | 3.484385623 | 3.965174012 | 3.808736089 | 1.699953315 | 2.624190524 | 2.215536789 | 2.489273977 | 5.591065234 | 5.13080605 |
| 2021.75 | 4.71599084 | 4.603667876 | 4.595883007 | 2.717228371 | 4.329678493 | 3.415045402 | 3.503165336 | 6.787389706 | 6.535470263 |
| 2022 | 5.752021426 | 5.677263118 | 4.704117703 | 3.606650089 | 5.365045054 | 5.522109172 | 3.846567936 | 7.043732635 | 7.717890861 |
| 2022.25 | 6.856373185 | 7.276764585 | 6.425388617 | 5.115946259 | 7.633763273 | 6.719753047 | 5.231284906 | 7.462943424 | 8.243994062 |
| 2022.5 | 7.185763687 | 6.877428048 | 7.118117632 | 5.671527894 | 8.390547348 | 8.138531937 | 5.656884956 | 8.154553808 | 7.9630559 |
| 2022.75 | 6.95205038 | 6.455299835 | 8.25147359 | 5.918496312 | 8.992941604 | 11.01185859 | 5.097678481 | 7.718030817 | 6.850684978 |
| 2023 | 5.987094785 | 5.071632472 | 7.900818404 | 5.815796262 | 8.595264702 | 8.482136619 | 4.506137524 | 7.200458503 | 5.590592048 |
| 2023.25 | 4.623179693 | 3.406341909 | 6.324111681 | 5.026358037 | 7.402842164 | 7.192357026 | 3.208157591 | 5.545040334 | 3.95241592 |
| 2023.5 | 3.967843934 | 3.607091967 | 5.430407994 | 4.574207788 | 6.157422647 | 5.44061258 | 3.06375916 | 4.515344138 | 3.499791621 |
| 2023.75 | 3.16981534 | 3.172159094 | 3.487882818 | 3.667878745 | 4.261527948 | 0.951055525 | 3.355916555 | 4.32556093 | 3.184892125 |
| 2024 | 2.994285035 | 2.84038068 | 2.51011698 | 2.72987469 | 4.388924326 | 0.893361052 | 2.970656447 | 4.47259214 | 3.197523888 |
Core Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Date | WORLD | CAN | DEU | FRA | GBR | ITA | KOR | MEX | USA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1.911018293 | 1.093762725 | 1.580713649 | 1.61811048 | 1.658873801 | 2.013502089 | 2.810049039 | 3.372055988 | 2.354778597 |
| 2008.25 | 1.926654468 | 0.887094996 | 1.202723754 | 1.601246323 | 1.823058658 | 2.094550393 | 3.278598282 | 3.895254559 | 2.312606113 |
| 2008.5 | 2.116263362 | 0.72613483 | 1.350636525 | 1.498437426 | 2.205215922 | 2.337412484 | 3.802736298 | 4.475795186 | 2.463642192 |
| 2008.75 | 1.897519458 | 1.51349646 | 1.292018411 | 1.438102332 | 1.93314194 | 2.205889571 | 4.133393573 | 5.056229666 | 1.958623774 |
| 2009 | 1.635462112 | 1.83349281 | 1.24467371 | 1.454409407 | 1.744927134 | 1.788986371 | 3.733578413 | 5.103722608 | 1.753258596 |
| 2009.25 | 1.508897486 | 2.003281155 | 1.327954564 | 1.396242136 | 1.621809764 | 1.737848078 | 3.050792304 | 4.984378757 | 1.826481825 |
| 2009.5 | 1.1779757 | 1.754338976 | 1.129592587 | 1.318041675 | 1.555485372 | 1.305358797 | 2.6287498 | 4.463069352 | 1.471731794 |
| 2009.75 | 1.185496255 | 1.153035644 | 1.04095296 | 1.070430648 | 1.595903831 | 1.418936247 | 2.29378473 | 3.930113376 | 1.720520392 |
| 2010 | 1.145170207 | 1.236542026 | 0.760785192 | 1.077095363 | 1.937020406 | 1.564977317 | 2.059856784 | 4.461035798 | 1.332677946 |
| 2010.25 | 0.930182289 | 1.068126141 | 0.630780036 | 0.790681419 | 1.960629134 | 1.484215333 | 1.806679381 | 4.172177895 | 0.925930893 |
| 2010.5 | 0.905594089 | 1.390264012 | 0.565366229 | 0.862169362 | 1.872523479 | 1.597455493 | 1.817425977 | 4.02064217 | 0.842779845 |
| 2010.75 | 0.923763598 | 1.602977292 | 0.511126258 | 0.892068677 | 2.12902866 | 1.600372613 | 1.642724707 | 4.008872446 | 0.709898348 |
| 2011 | 1.139407568 | 1.5110897 | 0.77622887 | 0.826328009 | 2.648149431 | 1.709444947 | 2.115958207 | 3.250831061 | 1.087246436 |
| 2011.25 | 1.423526872 | 1.420905229 | 0.901817191 | 1.179617276 | 2.795632022 | 1.90341227 | 2.67176799 | 2.990732425 | 1.491526691 |
| 2011.5 | 1.59047419 | 1.328637861 | 0.900090496 | 0.989642528 | 2.814040225 | 2.000703261 | 2.687046716 | 2.879434884 | 1.890303993 |
| 2011.75 | 1.665670335 | 1.482459388 | 1.02500316 | 1.390353056 | 2.766439726 | 2.312178561 | 2.643800159 | 2.689242384 | 2.138953176 |
| 2012 | 1.659791713 | 1.467486962 | 1.263039301 | 1.468330863 | 2.263601683 | 2.063004471 | 2.135844969 | 2.458549781 | 2.207592002 |
| 2012.25 | 1.621342307 | 1.748209618 | 1.238604644 | 1.452660907 | 1.965117208 | 2.104030155 | 1.484670815 | 2.642351138 | 2.225349196 |
| 2012.5 | 1.49579178 | 1.153516724 | 1.246681368 | 1.471448568 | 1.944680244 | 2.002336761 | 1.232489158 | 2.755537683 | 1.970650475 |
| 2012.75 | 1.486657538 | 0.990211803 | 1.471456781 | 1.106684544 | 2.194660905 | 1.396757536 | 1.353938726 | 2.511049805 | 1.922119717 |
| 2013 | 1.392597237 | 0.903748407 | 1.205963407 | 0.899249657 | 1.975707429 | 1.423257008 | 1.444337768 | 2.613891815 | 1.912689843 |
| 2013.25 | 1.28003552 | 0.596889008 | 1.079065909 | 0.672789029 | 1.95819683 | 1.09145544 | 1.504738639 | 2.945813487 | 1.646605712 |
| 2013.5 | 1.350088087 | 0.911235976 | 1.272452701 | 0.834097761 | 1.86649908 | 1.057133188 | 1.43630464 | 2.74487717 | 1.724922764 |
| 2013.75 | 1.361393821 | 0.876645042 | 1.276394625 | 0.832150886 | 1.556175766 | 1.014725204 | 1.636050221 | 3.047423365 | 1.697924391 |
| 2014 | 1.376825575 | 1.051049846 | 1.538173391 | 1.082621216 | 1.52031692 | 0.8806186 | 1.516594024 | 3.399428583 | 1.586738129 |
| 2014.25 | 1.650638003 | 1.286324223 | 1.342858087 | 1.020876292 | 1.758558076 | 0.798263382 | 1.811171204 | 3.067217546 | 1.871848396 |
| 2014.5 | 1.581033086 | 1.70573055 | 1.175223187 | 0.877422798 | 1.650572608 | 0.393567058 | 1.83586676 | 3.183100384 | 1.797802454 |
| 2014.75 | 1.545451339 | 2.138242029 | 1.169367571 | 0.694903196 | 1.451727824 | 0.523605635 | 1.457034258 | 3.12976006 | 1.771285252 |
| 2015 | 1.557848015 | 2.645844992 | 1.113144375 | 0.351599215 | 1.41717318 | 0.502616205 | 2.383736076 | 2.362199239 | 1.773896407 |
| 2015.25 | 1.443670124 | 2.855158244 | 1.806210082 | 0.521569816 | 1.088605959 | 0.562025944 | 2.211269634 | 2.335599569 | 1.819152076 |
| 2015.5 | 1.524686476 | 2.76981419 | 1.842116245 | 0.500797809 | 1.245251934 | 0.762517332 | 2.453055129 | 2.379864303 | 1.902720313 |
| 2015.75 | 1.556249109 | 2.371966909 | 1.435262686 | 0.580407431 | 1.37132148 | 0.720510046 | 2.544512767 | 2.413376825 | 2.048723791 |
| 2016 | 1.593691489 | 1.857826929 | 1.36927081 | 0.569975785 | 1.486535616 | 0.60977943 | 1.855044423 | 2.672407777 | 2.23930826 |
| 2016.25 | 1.541254047 | 2.013062114 | 1.054423729 | 0.389398003 | 1.532065541 | 0.409490885 | 2.016058916 | 2.566409281 | 2.217192761 |
| 2016.5 | 1.534625257 | 1.935289563 | 1.150344763 | 0.368985797 | 1.535060059 | 0.508446913 | 1.867184522 | 2.752013282 | 2.250721249 |
| 2016.75 | 1.472336887 | 1.83058239 | 1.228103507 | 0.368508039 | 1.6856822 | 0.487392598 | 1.703385465 | 2.93464986 | 2.149462771 |
| 2017 | 1.475133482 | 1.901647232 | 1.027068998 | 0.358319568 | 1.902950571 | 0.705109985 | 1.724177974 | 3.75617545 | 2.128597079 |
| 2017.25 | 1.435821037 | 1.471544226 | 1.209751491 | 0.477180025 | 2.409287845 | 0.902914656 | 1.512443902 | 4.495351875 | 1.809355399 |
| 2017.5 | 1.412531707 | 1.359770384 | 1.390413113 | 0.55589377 | 2.475254705 | 0.821989652 | 1.428524407 | 4.52059901 | 1.69480738 |
| 2017.75 | 1.442110536 | 1.673070009 | 1.20347797 | 0.693482217 | 2.376235991 | 0.406003606 | 1.424924119 | 4.637153549 | 1.791407621 |
| 2018 | 1.511923656 | 1.894738546 | 1.366138859 | 0.978794882 | 2.210138987 | 0.464032397 | 1.149160256 | 4.121614548 | 1.937398173 |
| 2018.25 | 1.577440916 | 1.916321246 | 1.204951452 | 1.153691514 | 1.842972195 | 0.54179925 | 1.356245931 | 3.555562035 | 2.225217419 |
| 2018.5 | 1.581534595 | 2.251147769 | 1.217754167 | 1.122167505 | 1.786438107 | 0.648852402 | 1.046222867 | 3.487404137 | 2.215964593 |
| 2018.75 | 1.557318336 | 2.172451618 | 1.381196857 | 0.933529716 | 1.797419093 | 0.738449026 | 1.091235282 | 3.373028211 | 2.186542996 |
| 2019 | 1.484589368 | 1.943645089 | 1.146728331 | 0.676574002 | 1.770955741 | 0.471703086 | 0.96508019 | 3.318282165 | 2.120827203 |
| 2019.25 | 1.545552739 | 2.233571071 | 1.47653685 | 0.644970603 | 1.735259014 | 0.538865139 | 0.657053143 | 3.529361063 | 2.117872109 |
| 2019.5 | 1.62845422 | 2.155434765 | 1.600951514 | 0.702304039 | 1.671769088 | 0.547244353 | 0.73253661 | 3.525484746 | 2.318602519 |
| 2019.75 | 1.685271393 | 1.914738841 | 1.636415704 | 1.079829799 | 1.581279565 | 0.713553243 | 0.579052687 | 3.494452158 | 2.347898222 |
| 2020 | 1.632490581 | 1.869906632 | 1.313550104 | 1.127209544 | 1.65752679 | 0.664454608 | 0.398600304 | 3.449963698 | 2.30029988 |
| 2020.25 | 0.996149529 | 1.070812604 | 0.578886132 | 0.747255056 | 1.366848008 | 0.623424555 | 0.227532887 | 3.046264347 | 1.428891697 |
| 2020.5 | 1.054760413 | 0.625753946 | -0.55932092 | 1.044297269 | 1.388844977 | 0.262784895 | 0.453940635 | 3.162992128 | 1.76599356 |
| 2020.75 | 1.036333808 | 1.153328536 | -0.160549202 | 0.626960672 | 1.39298352 | 0.417942558 | 0.330732955 | 2.978242763 | 1.772437416 |
| 2021 | 1.20162597 | 1.212351667 | 1.39915303 | 0.885048407 | 1.331890569 | 0.920949292 | 0.82064101 | 3.087983566 | 1.624055312 |
| 2021.25 | 2.067165207 | 2.071863617 | 1.586511624 | 0.866390451 | 1.889934302 | 0.368326839 | 1.176759524 | 3.643112308 | 3.585492667 |
| 2021.5 | 2.42742225 | 3.000129957 | 2.978305626 | 0.680628544 | 2.489753052 | 0.745657612 | 1.340290397 | 3.882466866 | 3.955882224 |
| 2021.75 | 3.0958071 | 3.197337183 | 3.272879282 | 1.384603198 | 3.470209845 | 1.147613065 | 2.14660517 | 4.534043794 | 4.879795593 |
| 2022 | 3.846242867 | 4.187607434 | 2.768115484 | 1.746938548 | 4.474723337 | 1.418055666 | 2.733553813 | 5.178756344 | 6.168166575 |
| 2022.25 | 4.401263671 | 4.990732561 | 3.675675408 | 2.667070864 | 5.140128046 | 2.474917272 | 3.386095578 | 5.655602967 | 6.033732201 |
| 2022.5 | 4.893322273 | 5.321882485 | 4.015370418 | 3.261414382 | 5.461103439 | 3.507468391 | 3.970045303 | 6.128268032 | 6.313536892 |
| 2022.75 | 5.060086612 | 5.337570317 | 4.917345584 | 3.283570015 | 5.598081745 | 4.141624381 | 4.053387374 | 6.325676888 | 6.054228691 |
| 2023 | 4.965319171 | 4.80078661 | 5.522659076 | 3.432183239 | 5.405807514 | 4.538197961 | 3.872839481 | 6.299682941 | 5.426452088 |
| 2023.25 | 4.811531683 | 4.172510119 | 5.365611337 | 3.67409315 | 6.183096085 | 4.710335902 | 3.607359512 | 5.855224751 | 5.011715216 |
| 2023.5 | 4.251233338 | 3.630437507 | 5.03886945 | 3.283754973 | 5.872721203 | 3.918489165 | 3.118368195 | 5.200862634 | 4.197236522 |
| 2023.75 | 3.76405288 | 3.594679636 | 3.743384817 | 2.867547653 | 5.198708236 | 3.115633317 | 2.866828236 | 4.733315993 | 3.935584395 |
| 2024 | 3.411076398 | 3.042277631 | 3.009784114 | 2.532236376 | 4.745620809 | 2.265270163 | 2.458107719 | 4.292690073 | 3.830904513 |
Note: Inflation series are 4-quarter percent changes of consumer price indexes, and world inflation is GDP-weighted 4-quarter percent change of consumer price indexes for selected economies. Data extend through 2024:Q1. Shaded area refers to period in which the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a public health emergency. World inflation, the red line, is a GDP-weighted average of the inflation measures for 26 economies.
Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations; World Health Organization.
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Figure 2. Global Components of World Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Date | World_Core | Global_Core | World_Noncore | Global_Noncore | World_Headline | Global_Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1962-10-01 | 2.611812509 | -1.855003814 | 3.122515055 | -0.964229683 | 2.814194352 | -1.596083863 |
| 1963-01-01 | 2.97945519 | -1.565359077 | 3.754194957 | -0.955915776 | 3.237945972 | -1.385226017 |
| 1963-04-01 | 2.786306599 | -1.411684509 | 2.54735219 | -1.124501476 | 2.741826602 | -1.323775763 |
| 1963-07-01 | 2.849915972 | -1.315323638 | 2.921412687 | -1.403170315 | 2.886738322 | -1.331885395 |
| 1963-10-01 | 3.020264514 | -1.298431202 | 3.436339489 | -1.729627159 | 3.157616486 | -1.410734853 |
| 1964-01-01 | 2.758337645 | -1.332912891 | 2.30110197 | -1.957137908 | 2.650317457 | -1.501241844 |
| 1964-04-01 | 2.776584326 | -1.344124114 | 3.034351158 | -2.075409121 | 2.863798309 | -1.540834222 |
| 1964-07-01 | 2.966667188 | -1.34771035 | 2.781827569 | -2.174796359 | 2.930697015 | -1.570081492 |
| 1964-10-01 | 3.110731447 | -1.354068932 | 2.286979144 | -2.245032156 | 2.869153089 | -1.597180648 |
| 1965-01-01 | 3.197341413 | -1.370833339 | 2.226883802 | -2.320939002 | 2.942034481 | -1.632585139 |
| 1965-04-01 | 3.348702669 | -1.394886654 | 2.938548002 | -2.403559353 | 3.257050006 | -1.677088721 |
| 1965-07-01 | 3.265062722 | -1.427190567 | 3.644362687 | -2.411971897 | 3.396823157 | -1.70850291 |
| 1965-10-01 | 3.186621621 | -1.439901028 | 3.909016388 | -2.34454008 | 3.414071473 | -1.701376418 |
| 1966-01-01 | 3.183455013 | -1.423872684 | 4.795655898 | -2.211375973 | 3.611181233 | -1.654906801 |
| 1966-04-01 | 3.44614273 | -1.385158522 | 4.339995156 | -2.051792537 | 3.686713852 | -1.5831953 |
| 1966-07-01 | 3.557453408 | -1.326881061 | 3.645723591 | -1.905848594 | 3.57537294 | -1.500786991 |
| 1966-10-01 | 3.61543356 | -1.262465615 | 3.514830262 | -1.729500053 | 3.589438279 | -1.407205796 |
| 1967-01-01 | 3.718538458 | -1.178667364 | 1.943668793 | -1.507169092 | 3.218328269 | -1.2843645 |
| 1967-04-01 | 3.377937111 | -1.073631597 | 1.649980268 | -1.246902707 | 2.883147748 | -1.135430245 |
| 1967-07-01 | 3.401989526 | -0.946607068 | 2.098309846 | -1.038364052 | 3.014107238 | -0.981693489 |
| 1967-10-01 | 3.616099736 | -0.836080178 | 1.773954005 | -1.00413702 | 3.065979454 | -0.888452691 |
| 1968-01-01 | 3.780621559 | -0.785473413 | 2.817129761 | -1.098322623 | 3.504503393 | -0.878898591 |
| 1968-04-01 | 3.899366561 | -0.780448901 | 3.012602815 | -1.245197669 | 3.638471359 | -0.916164009 |
| 1968-07-01 | 4.074685492 | -0.80454341 | 2.859020948 | -1.315801136 | 3.725166712 | -0.955313387 |
| 1968-10-01 | 4.087951179 | -0.807388231 | 3.250409929 | -1.178313339 | 3.842421812 | -0.920047212 |
| 1969-01-01 | 4.316605634 | -0.749777365 | 3.839192013 | -0.86009016 | 4.180118445 | -0.786965431 |
| 1969-04-01 | 4.677959315 | -0.607471144 | 4.330986417 | -0.444626372 | 4.5879387 | -0.56532367 |
| 1969-07-01 | 4.747117903 | -0.418857867 | 4.380061923 | -0.008415662 | 4.637556903 | -0.306071532 |
| 1969-10-01 | 4.903120975 | -0.210169046 | 4.811665156 | 0.317815678 | 4.881931231 | -0.06152292 |
| 1970-01-01 | 5.254693675 | -0.03497671 | 5.64605264 | 0.469406166 | 5.372766747 | 0.10786721 |
| 1970-04-01 | 5.390868163 | 0.081026067 | 5.115031669 | 0.528119445 | 5.308959395 | 0.205583874 |
| 1970-07-01 | 5.510152635 | 0.152912258 | 5.365515421 | 0.526477812 | 5.50291064 | 0.25778593 |
| 1970-10-01 | 5.957269151 | 0.190324201 | 5.193484217 | 0.521075699 | 5.791362998 | 0.283248952 |
| 1971-01-01 | 5.754422729 | 0.223391879 | 4.136488624 | 0.545652254 | 5.328326042 | 0.315803465 |
| 1971-04-01 | 5.728832143 | 0.259766655 | 4.64810755 | 0.589458255 | 5.449291888 | 0.356900331 |
| 1971-07-01 | 5.763389562 | 0.306208261 | 5.092990161 | 0.644963052 | 5.591869894 | 0.406970349 |
| 1971-10-01 | 5.208267917 | 0.350276528 | 5.162381587 | 0.70343509 | 5.214697521 | 0.456119831 |
| 1972-01-01 | 4.93440789 | 0.395332756 | 4.683882758 | 0.781842473 | 4.87707064 | 0.509931297 |
| 1972-04-01 | 4.684349585 | 0.451247064 | 4.487050739 | 0.939247884 | 4.659298915 | 0.592630572 |
| 1972-07-01 | 4.7686076 | 0.540708256 | 4.599934503 | 1.326862623 | 4.752895558 | 0.761220693 |
| 1972-10-01 | 5.044070148 | 0.734208221 | 5.121316028 | 2.181137434 | 5.066887765 | 1.134565574 |
| 1973-01-01 | 5.27382149 | 1.130740162 | 7.325645969 | 3.667215283 | 5.863040022 | 1.834914443 |
| 1973-04-01 | 6.242565112 | 1.816476301 | 10.24924244 | 5.865884767 | 7.385363415 | 2.946221267 |
| 1973-07-01 | 6.773268537 | 2.829783959 | 11.95844646 | 8.624090651 | 8.232635378 | 4.458497162 |
| 1973-10-01 | 7.760965481 | 4.132671588 | 14.52976893 | 11.51964162 | 9.689211381 | 6.225078986 |
| 1974-01-01 | 9.241913766 | 5.573700696 | 17.97050886 | 13.79086435 | 11.79754449 | 7.928966666 |
| 1974-04-01 | 10.25749302 | 6.800925203 | 17.71921408 | 14.81081773 | 12.49712297 | 9.118176518 |
| 1974-07-01 | 11.58679841 | 7.564685558 | 17.37906318 | 14.38745253 | 13.40082157 | 9.561133488 |
| 1974-10-01 | 12.57244795 | 7.723254385 | 16.36737853 | 12.67061134 | 13.86833237 | 9.199190107 |
| 1975-01-01 | 12.08326374 | 7.305324524 | 13.06065504 | 10.33495774 | 12.57779029 | 8.237209006 |
| 1975-04-01 | 11.52187456 | 6.522475637 | 11.4110483 | 8.099589279 | 11.67599575 | 7.04276238 |
| 1975-07-01 | 10.36105084 | 5.655305181 | 11.1185752 | 6.361774349 | 10.70061639 | 5.932962675 |
| 1975-10-01 | 9.070616044 | 4.899732988 | 10.11381567 | 5.281274706 | 9.451660716 | 5.08698954 |
| 1976-01-01 | 9.05198704 | 4.353337312 | 8.359024236 | 4.676728638 | 8.8976538 | 4.525957982 |
| 1976-04-01 | 8.5577067 | 3.970173414 | 8.270867219 | 4.324161962 | 8.583061883 | 4.144388385 |
| 1976-07-01 | 8.520314791 | 3.695216937 | 6.924682553 | 4.231939127 | 8.194568528 | 3.900262834 |
| 1976-10-01 | 8.829468006 | 3.511096488 | 7.585055092 | 4.351876792 | 8.628759259 | 3.785750289 |
| 1977-01-01 | 9.452863984 | 3.394180792 | 8.102397633 | 4.6422253 | 9.111764205 | 3.765160418 |
| 1977-04-01 | 9.3128434 | 3.351954219 | 9.300344126 | 5.010434556 | 9.298958991 | 3.83063869 |
| 1977-07-01 | 8.911113362 | 3.373855366 | 10.45737688 | 5.04983984 | 9.394298465 | 3.859794516 |
| 1977-10-01 | 8.11000284 | 3.249285669 | 9.299086869 | 4.807740959 | 8.43818349 | 3.690589618 |
| 1978-01-01 | 7.59588284 | 3.071222571 | 7.582162148 | 4.539241589 | 7.545155661 | 3.482167533 |
| 1978-04-01 | 7.287932415 | 2.881431524 | 7.663299034 | 4.279865113 | 7.338925244 | 3.276199691 |
| 1978-07-01 | 7.461327906 | 2.72077874 | 7.879922625 | 4.123265978 | 7.499655483 | 3.117903037 |
| 1978-10-01 | 7.694323674 | 2.600298046 | 8.004968276 | 4.302784954 | 7.696648132 | 3.081750052 |
| 1979-01-01 | 8.22988504 | 2.683469392 | 8.577099771 | 5.099358537 | 8.260601204 | 3.364497243 |
| 1979-04-01 | 8.405601637 | 2.997543921 | 10.2762317 | 6.250844367 | 8.869501059 | 3.934258731 |
| 1979-07-01 | 8.968920235 | 3.512948717 | 12.32119513 | 7.588776602 | 9.864646992 | 4.687622352 |
| 1979-10-01 | 9.915918725 | 4.154678637 | 13.34200443 | 8.96892017 | 10.85986031 | 5.541422939 |
| 1980-01-01 | 10.8870996 | 4.859130787 | 15.72117793 | 9.954745863 | 12.25579073 | 6.350043641 |
| 1980-04-01 | 11.94318813 | 5.41268021 | 14.82317751 | 10.27777672 | 12.7856099 | 6.858878635 |
| 1980-07-01 | 11.5832378 | 5.711156363 | 13.20326947 | 10.07108588 | 12.05506289 | 7.018397445 |
| 1980-10-01 | 11.34800371 | 5.776620032 | 12.98586187 | 9.607039093 | 11.83518947 | 6.925131274 |
| 1981-01-01 | 10.65557094 | 5.738730426 | 12.16865836 | 9.194372716 | 11.10433121 | 6.785984057 |
| 1981-04-01 | 9.876361309 | 5.634784541 | 11.68590806 | 8.858136405 | 10.42933394 | 6.622859846 |
| 1981-07-01 | 10.31867407 | 5.53921852 | 11.34276997 | 8.389880787 | 10.66184217 | 6.428888718 |
| 1981-10-01 | 9.956170381 | 5.373185984 | 10.86053717 | 7.612115957 | 10.2819562 | 6.084492559 |
| 1982-01-01 | 9.730503984 | 5.065354613 | 7.937681044 | 6.518023236 | 9.238567627 | 5.542497694 |
| 1982-04-01 | 9.481703176 | 4.596877357 | 7.511207821 | 5.322645274 | 8.941808181 | 4.851188429 |
| 1982-07-01 | 9.112073505 | 4.040005222 | 7.728324329 | 4.293367123 | 8.729733937 | 4.147483565 |
| 1982-10-01 | 8.513853366 | 3.502582295 | 7.415235808 | 3.529051805 | 8.210201676 | 3.540931548 |
| 1983-01-01 | 8.339883365 | 3.055919726 | 6.885503109 | 3.03101242 | 7.942273509 | 3.074084121 |
| 1983-04-01 | 7.691895693 | 2.684390043 | 7.288578336 | 2.724847617 | 7.588501286 | 2.716458199 |
| 1983-07-01 | 7.403152731 | 2.402257377 | 5.473894808 | 2.544726266 | 6.843875974 | 2.45920624 |
| 1983-10-01 | 7.408514123 | 2.179203739 | 5.77600652 | 2.428194165 | 6.940470605 | 2.261092413 |
| 1984-01-01 | 7.171704101 | 1.959916628 | 6.979018391 | 2.283707913 | 7.114765791 | 2.064205061 |
| 1984-04-01 | 7.035835493 | 1.782903522 | 6.307344638 | 2.077313316 | 6.813370071 | 1.875358647 |
| 1984-07-01 | 6.81187079 | 1.585667311 | 6.082255731 | 1.799078705 | 6.593149735 | 1.648854941 |
| 1984-10-01 | 6.582290314 | 1.369696405 | 5.830705577 | 1.548868486 | 6.347763166 | 1.419014113 |
| 1985-01-01 | 6.488024007 | 1.162352261 | 5.250687663 | 1.31628122 | 6.105087401 | 1.204752194 |
| 1985-04-01 | 6.511957018 | 0.983464766 | 5.270833307 | 1.014891872 | 6.129905806 | 0.990273561 |
| 1985-07-01 | 6.371224072 | 0.789285292 | 4.803854841 | 0.599785204 | 5.87908627 | 0.728443346 |
| 1985-10-01 | 6.139424391 | 0.550231981 | 4.356249019 | 0.09652729 | 5.586636254 | 0.409368506 |
| 1986-01-01 | 5.931833989 | 0.296404086 | 3.149061169 | -0.346505744 | 5.067076117 | 0.096270275 |
| 1986-04-01 | 5.578003882 | 0.047034021 | 0.603803152 | -0.578723485 | 4.044658909 | -0.148501776 |
| 1986-07-01 | 5.598519568 | -0.095780562 | 0.291254667 | -0.637680155 | 3.973010742 | -0.262194591 |
| 1986-10-01 | 5.571713653 | -0.186672363 | 0.120905281 | -0.571904884 | 3.915105229 | -0.30371682 |
| 1987-01-01 | 5.485331764 | -0.203315557 | 0.924093421 | -0.446542352 | 4.098972661 | -0.275977455 |
| 1987-04-01 | 5.749098076 | -0.18247369 | 3.532277261 | -0.232993124 | 5.062425055 | -0.200401042 |
| 1987-07-01 | 5.862944661 | -0.116383495 | 4.621658654 | 0.029839108 | 5.461829461 | -0.076432656 |
| 1987-10-01 | 6.055448995 | -0.02066321 | 4.961230594 | 0.294720414 | 5.697403835 | 0.061972691 |
| 1988-01-01 | 6.18033972 | 0.090318815 | 4.653646019 | 0.588194877 | 5.729166735 | 0.212306601 |
| 1988-04-01 | 5.969488429 | 0.221224296 | 4.318356524 | 0.8751693 | 5.474401407 | 0.388437145 |
| 1988-07-01 | 5.64794402 | 0.359110778 | 4.132056521 | 1.147254104 | 5.19310067 | 0.564126705 |
| 1988-10-01 | 5.295254394 | 0.505631001 | 3.918676373 | 1.42624649 | 4.881852454 | 0.746150425 |
| 1989-01-01 | 4.829005615 | 0.65615687 | 3.861960817 | 1.663061101 | 4.516567941 | 0.924636808 |
| 1989-04-01 | 4.874410232 | 0.800788099 | 5.145628366 | 1.874313597 | 4.884836324 | 1.088844571 |
| 1989-07-01 | 4.804562247 | 0.938843692 | 4.665048413 | 2.058983818 | 4.73197176 | 1.245476071 |
| 1989-10-01 | 4.753742559 | 1.068351848 | 4.956451267 | 2.182545166 | 4.784903004 | 1.375135019 |
| 1990-01-01 | 4.990857743 | 1.170176459 | 6.118272357 | 2.264033275 | 5.277323861 | 1.474335971 |
| 1990-04-01 | 5.105489087 | 1.253883749 | 4.522727826 | 2.305537368 | 4.952670533 | 1.551740725 |
| 1990-07-01 | 5.365188498 | 1.309425007 | 5.663316097 | 2.264068157 | 5.431513534 | 1.584567006 |
| 1990-10-01 | 5.428642144 | 1.329935381 | 7.544000024 | 2.133248371 | 5.975676207 | 1.564269518 |
| 1991-01-01 | 5.481421672 | 1.301708077 | 5.382380778 | 1.948968344 | 5.459243811 | 1.495055226 |
| 1991-04-01 | 5.100386933 | 1.23766356 | 5.28087265 | 1.722867774 | 5.173616207 | 1.387547953 |
| 1991-07-01 | 4.875386566 | 1.153555116 | 4.150209516 | 1.458536956 | 4.722317653 | 1.254601177 |
| 1991-10-01 | 4.810262935 | 1.033220038 | 2.403342966 | 1.169668968 | 4.198698283 | 1.087211733 |
| 1992-01-01 | 4.389850718 | 0.891750951 | 2.497545791 | 0.843545745 | 3.902039435 | 0.896236259 |
| 1992-04-01 | 4.36799815 | 0.727925184 | 2.524682749 | 0.4681477 | 3.870151292 | 0.673940168 |
| 1992-07-01 | 4.049760304 | 0.533781161 | 2.03132199 | 0.129405584 | 3.45460879 | 0.435680508 |
| 1992-10-01 | 3.706919881 | 0.343919972 | 1.629869619 | -0.129965961 | 3.077981583 | 0.225222232 |
| 1993-01-01 | 3.708920031 | 0.184323385 | 2.029155502 | -0.344490683 | 3.214348346 | 0.049499532 |
| 1993-04-01 | 3.488736398 | 0.041446518 | 1.960783956 | -0.50273884 | 3.034102088 | -0.101016745 |
| 1993-07-01 | 3.422747835 | -0.085009041 | 2.100055213 | -0.647418113 | 3.064825773 | -0.233905413 |
| 1993-10-01 | 3.241004376 | -0.194532573 | 1.970002288 | -0.778518327 | 2.890224123 | -0.352399282 |
| 1994-01-01 | 2.849366088 | -0.306036486 | 2.048955587 | -0.846314609 | 2.642229419 | -0.456219187 |
| 1994-04-01 | 2.692316514 | -0.377956324 | 1.588352114 | -0.837117412 | 2.409818981 | -0.508314914 |
| 1994-07-01 | 2.58989062 | -0.415893991 | 2.260865405 | -0.811873038 | 2.495929177 | -0.529047928 |
| 1994-10-01 | 2.569900202 | -0.444201743 | 2.117078569 | -0.845736781 | 2.458188882 | -0.556548832 |
| 1995-01-01 | 2.928221701 | 0.216412604 | 2.357053369 | 0.01226185 | 2.767392312 | 0.149414782 |
| 1995-04-01 | 3.388957698 | 0.284818066 | 3.169452149 | -0.113950602 | 3.319454087 | 0.168671019 |
| 1995-07-01 | 3.554338628 | 0.271768856 | 2.577379472 | -0.679014791 | 3.29269204 | 0.01430597 |
| 1995-10-01 | 3.627349806 | 0.253437816 | 2.479865465 | -0.675058888 | 3.335221776 | 0.00143073 |
| 1996-01-01 | 3.406079133 | 0.199813679 | 2.645164904 | -0.878685193 | 3.190397946 | -0.091709287 |
| 1996-04-01 | 2.957436151 | 0.066860239 | 3.119400094 | -0.429080863 | 2.992595955 | -0.074714862 |
| 1996-07-01 | 2.720098169 | -0.01846689 | 3.179841044 | -0.263420762 | 2.835716274 | -0.092063439 |
| 1996-10-01 | 2.60761768 | -0.112359046 | 3.939029046 | 0.183257214 | 2.934464439 | -0.041275068 |
| 1997-01-01 | 2.442874867 | -0.207500605 | 3.645628143 | -0.063355211 | 2.746207151 | -0.166891583 |
| 1997-04-01 | 2.469542668 | -0.261669794 | 2.13103279 | -1.094781408 | 2.377558796 | -0.46928897 |
| 1997-07-01 | 2.397868095 | -0.333233439 | 2.480500017 | -0.718449166 | 2.420305505 | -0.427822387 |
| 1997-10-01 | 2.373785197 | -0.343050363 | 1.83646837 | -0.819301245 | 2.233138068 | -0.464744024 |
| 1998-01-01 | 2.311359272 | -0.377320424 | 1.04738509 | -1.290723419 | 1.995684604 | -0.613864357 |
| 1998-04-01 | 2.157415396 | -0.417710257 | 1.144066812 | -1.100831616 | 1.911561246 | -0.594521344 |
| 1998-07-01 | 2.084219057 | -0.444602996 | 0.578403044 | -1.886263275 | 1.700057204 | -0.816176939 |
| 1998-10-01 | 1.980010875 | -0.505367705 | 0.813849477 | -2.585789649 | 1.708755571 | -1.039624521 |
| 1999-01-01 | 1.832853118 | -0.576050827 | 0.862830945 | -2.453778642 | 1.599435943 | -1.053741293 |
| 1999-04-01 | 1.735841533 | -0.630769838 | 1.889205229 | -1.979688367 | 1.761880196 | -0.977966172 |
| 1999-07-01 | 1.654540819 | -0.659178048 | 2.622406706 | -1.292563433 | 1.882513137 | -0.824976126 |
| 1999-10-01 | 1.608207885 | -0.658159598 | 2.94942638 | 0.036264512 | 1.912955102 | -0.483608918 |
| 2000-01-01 | 1.670783817 | -0.593307537 | 4.391520311 | 1.272728306 | 2.324903624 | -0.119690123 |
| 2000-04-01 | 1.673314074 | -0.522573313 | 4.151959974 | 1.348558379 | 2.289404918 | -0.031627337 |
| 2000-07-01 | 1.832194195 | -0.40782393 | 4.630692399 | 2.018564458 | 2.546022916 | 0.231106524 |
| 2000-10-01 | 1.841207819 | -0.296456451 | 4.671253935 | 1.963749506 | 2.580232398 | 0.303094 |
| 2001-01-01 | 1.985627596 | -0.186192828 | 4.380828481 | 0.862110786 | 2.579760025 | 0.093772296 |
| 2001-04-01 | 2.11020308 | -0.101422347 | 4.583328242 | 1.720816737 | 2.733728104 | 0.363931938 |
| 2001-07-01 | 2.079911633 | -0.079576196 | 2.756140963 | 0.392112648 | 2.258827746 | 0.050384939 |
| 2001-10-01 | 2.072784044 | -0.099415491 | 0.379935544 | -1.553936023 | 1.660653436 | -0.450064039 |
| 2002-01-01 | 2.001066218 | -0.075083464 | -0.358141088 | -1.176493122 | 1.438704732 | -0.345153858 |
| 2002-04-01 | 1.980626098 | -0.069985546 | -0.384291301 | -2.009003108 | 1.407659004 | -0.555842339 |
| 2002-07-01 | 1.897712809 | -0.078630194 | 0.416544878 | -1.781890709 | 1.548323262 | -0.507533258 |
| 2002-10-01 | 1.8699114 | -0.039255827 | 2.379845637 | -0.485374762 | 2.004019021 | -0.158852629 |
| 2003-01-01 | 1.730222386 | -0.119729069 | 4.68513293 | 0.701661087 | 2.41499989 | 0.063607944 |
| 2003-04-01 | 1.497860423 | -0.156623977 | 2.564925527 | -1.223417874 | 1.744247264 | -0.403240181 |
| 2003-07-01 | 1.363857041 | -0.220342956 | 3.092308623 | -1.135620558 | 1.74859401 | -0.430313477 |
| 2003-10-01 | 1.259924506 | -0.280800381 | 3.107192016 | -1.147077856 | 1.674920854 | -0.481647508 |
| 2004-01-01 | 1.309658948 | -0.294665994 | 2.115946823 | -2.02019724 | 1.489147131 | -0.702959408 |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.50447318 | -0.319167713 | 3.951364683 | 0.001601247 | 2.079364586 | -0.248272303 |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.534646955 | -0.299831369 | 3.855196443 | 0.173714864 | 2.095557966 | -0.187395919 |
| 2004-10-01 | 1.645517461 | -0.321270684 | 4.947296433 | 0.709420701 | 2.445062581 | -0.071274954 |
| 2005-01-01 | 1.709139967 | -0.33309363 | 3.717932996 | 0.099727246 | 2.19397134 | -0.217459038 |
| 2005-04-01 | 1.529579761 | -0.368378715 | 3.865197877 | 0.124118866 | 2.101279543 | -0.237215041 |
| 2005-07-01 | 1.503918109 | -0.374245284 | 5.853654965 | 1.465950856 | 2.546640454 | 0.078731601 |
| 2005-10-01 | 1.504418327 | -0.360262223 | 5.325809679 | 1.45728023 | 2.40786392 | 0.087910021 |
| 2006-01-01 | 1.45323533 | -0.346556328 | 5.842642759 | 2.072511299 | 2.523423989 | 0.24967769 |
| 2006-04-01 | 1.664957408 | -0.256621781 | 5.99774156 | 2.264355241 | 2.732052866 | 0.373899457 |
| 2006-07-01 | 1.797714723 | -0.216445837 | 4.260111856 | 0.970342646 | 2.427611148 | 0.094184748 |
| 2006-10-01 | 1.795101523 | -0.147022046 | 1.579576583 | -0.811793278 | 1.772733653 | -0.298373572 |
| 2007-01-01 | 1.888012883 | -0.05645202 | 2.043754437 | -0.907961865 | 1.935837707 | -0.257977067 |
| 2007-04-01 | 1.824579993 | -0.004033633 | 2.530370253 | -0.904508466 | 1.989357732 | -0.229279416 |
| 2007-07-01 | 1.791785609 | 0.067922785 | 2.097683666 | -0.41748438 | 1.869044549 | -0.057922641 |
| 2007-10-01 | 1.870165006 | 0.133943981 | 6.397548531 | 3.770973425 | 2.982260058 | 1.01000216 |
| 2008-01-01 | 1.911018293 | 0.228034583 | 7.242270045 | 5.505400057 | 3.255928135 | 1.529354668 |
| 2008-04-01 | 1.926654468 | 0.300902245 | 8.374168735 | 6.626947913 | 3.609902392 | 1.910958634 |
| 2008-07-01 | 2.116263362 | 0.401300218 | 10.49328934 | 6.58677553 | 4.277525839 | 1.981551001 |
| 2008-10-01 | 1.897519458 | 0.39448144 | 2.704272232 | 0.080306081 | 2.145505337 | 0.344374669 |
| 2009-01-01 | 1.635462112 | 0.197114312 | -1.830952981 | -4.862881256 | 0.789805979 | -1.064901645 |
| 2009-04-01 | 1.508897486 | 0.004604957 | -4.407060382 | -7.42286613 | -0.026372989 | -1.936499964 |
| 2009-07-01 | 1.1779757 | -0.221095096 | -5.976346628 | -7.396002602 | -0.712497714 | -2.1325694 |
| 2009-10-01 | 1.185496255 | -0.334574894 | -0.140254308 | -3.298450334 | 0.830744295 | -1.118031061 |
| 2010-01-01 | 1.145170207 | -0.320318963 | 3.436958676 | 0.371007907 | 1.690784132 | -0.192573438 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.930182289 | -0.30725617 | 3.487031372 | 1.387047224 | 1.571397708 | 0.100030096 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.905594089 | -0.262103307 | 2.541461881 | 0.488194152 | 1.340566968 | -0.060461065 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.923763598 | -0.218092745 | 3.37889801 | 1.093595984 | 1.570165277 | 0.123219943 |
| 2011-01-01 | 1.139407568 | -0.125072712 | 4.887400966 | 2.616532843 | 2.087740406 | 0.55388548 |
| 2011-04-01 | 1.423526872 | -0.006066773 | 6.599592614 | 3.632906844 | 2.705579082 | 0.889475441 |
| 2011-07-01 | 1.59047419 | 0.063947209 | 7.026706486 | 3.925982313 | 2.944690702 | 1.016588935 |
| 2011-10-01 | 1.665670335 | 0.14206691 | 5.707525532 | 3.225687719 | 2.692224564 | 0.915628866 |
| 2012-01-01 | 1.659791713 | 0.123157606 | 4.253343325 | 1.505010909 | 2.369196322 | 0.495038517 |
| 2012-04-01 | 1.621342307 | 0.122925606 | 2.19411046 | 0.254281052 | 1.824257648 | 0.174047174 |
| 2012-07-01 | 1.49579178 | 0.098362832 | 2.099354239 | 0.753698825 | 1.704317585 | 0.272109778 |
| 2012-10-01 | 1.486657538 | 0.02358838 | 2.352543768 | 0.546307287 | 1.748721639 | 0.155666676 |
| 2013-01-01 | 1.392597237 | -0.001676845 | 1.778527309 | -0.285201928 | 1.523463311 | -0.076709499 |
| 2013-04-01 | 1.28003552 | -0.092982548 | 1.387492406 | -0.974499323 | 1.337264277 | -0.321316416 |
| 2013-07-01 | 1.350088087 | -0.122320553 | 1.629984607 | -1.561497504 | 1.457447064 | -0.493411355 |
| 2013-10-01 | 1.361393821 | -0.149046367 | 0.814183704 | -2.622365673 | 1.256543811 | -0.7851067 |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.376825575 | -0.159245457 | 1.228852485 | -2.628594126 | 1.359812007 | -0.799477269 |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.650638003 | -0.132477833 | 2.225777117 | -2.428991731 | 1.820406219 | -0.733514087 |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.581033086 | -0.164900989 | 1.500304069 | -2.796001933 | 1.579333681 | -0.853063725 |
| 2014-10-01 | 1.545451339 | -0.15898423 | -0.129359293 | -3.583551252 | 1.137113173 | -1.035245623 |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.557848015 | -0.194376646 | -3.307533555 | -5.434795756 | 0.370304277 | -1.518798479 |
| 2015-04-01 | 1.443670124 | -0.241564826 | -3.022629278 | -4.716632546 | 0.340550961 | -1.389364903 |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.524686476 | -0.220662264 | -3.35390127 | -5.187477601 | 0.298892229 | -1.49443097 |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.556249109 | -0.224240594 | -2.963034509 | -4.691809452 | 0.453713851 | -1.355155595 |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.593691489 | -0.213422588 | -2.182392321 | -4.184642653 | 0.675868401 | -1.201324091 |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.541254047 | -0.197816544 | -1.967704197 | -3.851768179 | 0.679792591 | -1.11083136 |
| 2016-07-01 | 1.534625257 | -0.162830286 | -1.578617218 | -3.178645361 | 0.781561543 | -0.916868188 |
| 2016-10-01 | 1.472336887 | -0.144379025 | 0.626865308 | -2.044951105 | 1.291153381 | -0.617811668 |
| 2017-01-01 | 1.475133482 | -0.105097053 | 3.466264443 | 0.372738757 | 1.978129244 | -0.014644221 |
| 2017-04-01 | 1.435821037 | -0.046974486 | 2.243073058 | -1.162016472 | 1.662448829 | -0.310996907 |
| 2017-07-01 | 1.412531707 | -0.061909967 | 2.606274399 | -0.876313382 | 1.7230842 | -0.25363265 |
| 2017-10-01 | 1.442110536 | -0.092544231 | 2.755442349 | -0.016728145 | 1.778222164 | -0.078519153 |
| 2018-01-01 | 1.511923656 | -0.072253516 | 2.658670659 | -0.658198176 | 1.806098141 | -0.208769967 |
| 2018-04-01 | 1.577440916 | -0.078115065 | 3.493631632 | 0.250562368 | 2.057564786 | -0.005243539 |
| 2018-07-01 | 1.581534595 | -0.031703636 | 3.905870204 | 0.124791123 | 2.187599522 | 0.00399512 |
| 2018-10-01 | 1.557318336 | 0.004585641 | 2.893697595 | -0.848556692 | 1.926394174 | -0.190604011 |
| 2019-01-01 | 1.484589368 | 0.022615448 | 0.969576097 | -1.38855092 | 1.411790092 | -0.302826131 |
| 2019-04-01 | 1.545552739 | 0.090907588 | 1.561785941 | -0.295921633 | 1.590136997 | -0.004964824 |
| 2019-07-01 | 1.62845422 | 0.108682585 | 0.353257169 | -1.267461969 | 1.34148918 | -0.217765473 |
| 2019-10-01 | 1.685271393 | 0.149450298 | 0.742805806 | -1.316117194 | 1.457567526 | -0.198075855 |
| 2020-01-01 | 1.632490581 | -0.558566761 | 1.308846123 | -0.71765092 | 1.556170913 | -0.589251133 |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.996149529 | -0.37187317 | -1.839581685 | -0.404058398 | 0.332494366 | -0.39544996 |
| 2020-07-01 | 1.054760413 | -0.219558945 | -0.496924666 | 0.164051233 | 0.702390397 | -0.15381291 |
| 2020-10-01 | 1.036333808 | 0.046250701 | -0.803694047 | 0.949700889 | 0.60591205 | 0.231871086 |
| 2021-01-01 | 1.20162597 | 0.40459896 | 1.631786445 | 1.929522449 | 1.281977289 | 0.733561077 |
| 2021-04-01 | 2.067165207 | 0.851559354 | 5.966229941 | 2.955557309 | 2.990212851 | 1.31841333 |
| 2021-07-01 | 2.42742225 | 1.348983607 | 6.841364585 | 3.964281998 | 3.484385623 | 1.943351033 |
| 2021-10-01 | 3.0958071 | 1.862014929 | 9.758889043 | 4.877258952 | 4.71599084 | 2.55608739 |
| 2022-01-01 | 3.846242867 | 2.356638376 | 11.13153868 | 5.629442871 | 5.752021426 | 3.139962025 |
| 2022-04-01 | 4.401263671 | 2.797422117 | 14.07642009 | 6.130209949 | 6.856373185 | 3.611958643 |
| 2022-07-01 | 4.893322273 | 3.128215169 | 13.68526085 | 6.2372704 | 7.185763687 | 3.905659648 |
| 2022-10-01 | 5.060086612 | 3.288669225 | 12.08188758 | 5.876868331 | 6.95205038 | 3.948069571 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.965319171 | 3.243847468 | 8.747861673 | 5.095575299 | 5.987094785 | 3.728553077 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.811531683 | 3.014224345 | 3.781880154 | 4.036935422 | 4.623179693 | 3.296307461 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.251233338 | 2.642899691 | 3.019586243 | 2.861010309 | 3.967843934 | 2.725129217 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.76405288 | 2.180823292 | 1.349049113 | 1.635610934 | 3.16981534 | 2.080688087 |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.411076398 | 1.659165292 | 1.606470266 | 0.408135173 | 2.994285035 | 1.392188132 |
Note: World inflation is the GDP-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global components are GDP-weighted aggregates of each economy’s common component. Noncore inflation encompasses food and energy categories. Headline inflation is the aggregate of core and noncore inflation using economy-specific weights.
Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.
Return to text
Figure 3. Model-Based Forecast of the Global Components of Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Date | Core_Global | Noncore_Global | Headline_Global |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-01 | -0.078115065 | 0.250562368 | -0.005243539 |
| 2018-07-01 | -0.031703636 | 0.124791123 | 0.00399512 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.004585641 | -0.848556692 | -0.190604011 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.022615448 | -1.38855092 | -0.302826131 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.090907588 | -0.295921633 | -0.004964824 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.108682585 | -1.267461969 | -0.217765473 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.149450298 | -1.316117194 | -0.198075855 |
| 2020-01-01 | -0.558566761 | -0.71765092 | -0.589251133 |
| 2020-04-01 | -0.37187317 | -0.404058398 | -0.39544996 |
| 2020-07-01 | -0.219558945 | 0.164051233 | -0.15381291 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.046250701 | 0.949700889 | 0.231871086 |
| 2021-01-01 | 0.40459896 | 1.929522449 | 0.733561077 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.851559354 | 2.955557309 | 1.31841333 |
| 2021-07-01 | 1.348983607 | 3.964281998 | 1.943351033 |
| 2021-10-01 | 1.862014929 | 4.877258952 | 2.55608739 |
| 2022-01-01 | 2.356638376 | 5.629442871 | 3.139962025 |
| 2022-04-01 | 2.797422117 | 6.130209949 | 3.611958643 |
| 2022-07-01 | 3.128215169 | 6.2372704 | 3.905659648 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.288669225 | 5.876868331 | 3.948069571 |
| 2023-01-01 | 3.243847468 | 5.095575299 | 3.728553077 |
| 2023-04-01 | 3.014224345 | 4.036935422 | 3.296307461 |
| 2023-07-01 | 2.642899691 | 2.861010309 | 2.725129217 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2.180823292 | 1.635610934 | 2.080688087 |
| 2024-01-01 | 1.659165292 | 0.408135173 | 1.392188132 |
| 2024-04-01 | 1.064838063 | -0.668397146 | 0.604123692 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.528437047 | -1.452890265 | 0.001776867 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.066846803 | -1.915111514 | -0.459981104 |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.285623391 | -2.082551773 | -0.763268158 |
| 2025-04-01 | -0.533566644 | -2.021404292 | -0.929051448 |
| 2025-07-01 | -0.687800783 | -1.819087585 | -0.988510164 |
| 2025-10-01 | -0.771923548 | -1.563416944 | -0.982311832 |
| 2026-01-01 | -0.810012795 | -1.326953551 | -0.947421748 |
| 2026-04-01 | -0.824338239 | -1.156755034 | -0.912698546 |
| 2026-07-01 | -0.830704807 | -1.071294959 | -0.894656508 |
| 2026-10-01 | -0.837734413 | -1.063369185 | -0.897710798 |
| 2027-01-01 | -0.84703303 | -1.107458664 | -0.916257237 |
| 2027-04-01 | -0.855094221 | -1.169178367 | -0.938581493 |
| 2027-07-01 | -0.855678811 | -1.214613622 | -0.951087919 |
| 2027-10-01 | -0.842330589 | -1.217721822 | -0.942114008 |
| 2028-01-01 | -0.810376802 | -1.164723176 | -0.904566249 |
Note: Global components are GDP-weighted components estimated through a factor model that isolates co-movement from economy-specific trends and transitory movements. Noncore inflation encompasses food and energy categories. Forecast shown is derived from the factor model and driven by the statistical persistence of the global components. Headline global component is the weighted average of core and noncore global components using economy-specific weights.
Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.
Return to text
Figure 4. Drivers of World Headline Inflation
1970s to Early 1980s
Deviation from 1972:Q4. Percentage point.
| Date | Global activity shocks | Commodity shocks | Idiosyncratic shocks | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1972-10-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1973-01-01 | 0.033827616 | 0.436751456 | 0.325573186 | 0.796152257 |
| 1973-04-01 | 0.105600427 | 1.224683174 | 0.988192049 | 2.318475651 |
| 1973-07-01 | 0.20414304 | 2.37427954 | 0.587325034 | 3.165747614 |
| 1973-10-01 | 0.331025056 | 3.741521754 | 0.549776806 | 4.622323616 |
| 1974-01-01 | 0.466064259 | 5.051899967 | 1.212692499 | 6.730656725 |
| 1974-04-01 | 0.510777337 | 6.021638566 | 0.897819301 | 7.430235204 |
| 1974-07-01 | 0.421113311 | 6.480912013 | 1.431908486 | 8.33393381 |
| 1974-10-01 | 0.201734147 | 6.39327019 | 2.206440265 | 8.801444602 |
| 1975-01-01 | -0.052792869 | 5.876582967 | 1.687112427 | 7.510902525 |
| 1975-04-01 | -0.2824259 | 5.177569085 | 1.7139648 | 6.609107984 |
| 1975-07-01 | -0.45253031 | 4.526669455 | 1.559589481 | 5.633728627 |
| 1975-10-01 | -0.568721251 | 4.054917611 | 0.898576591 | 4.384772951 |
| 1976-01-01 | -0.66628024 | 3.765015549 | 0.732030726 | 3.830766035 |
| 1976-04-01 | -0.763609957 | 3.555628192 | 0.724155883 | 3.516174118 |
| 1976-07-01 | -0.828437579 | 3.372095697 | 0.584022644 | 3.127680763 |
| 1976-10-01 | -0.842181022 | 3.180703917 | 1.223348599 | 3.561871494 |
| 1977-01-01 | -0.798760068 | 2.975052609 | 1.868583899 | 4.04487644 |
| 1977-04-01 | -0.724825478 | 2.794459992 | 2.162436713 | 4.232071226 |
| 1977-07-01 | -0.687501161 | 2.613299873 | 2.401611989 | 4.327410701 |
| 1977-10-01 | -0.800649398 | 2.445880811 | 1.726064312 | 3.371295725 |
| 1978-01-01 | -1.042965868 | 2.434666989 | 1.086566776 | 2.478267896 |
| 1978-04-01 | -1.410923766 | 2.612433138 | 1.070528107 | 2.272037479 |
| 1978-07-01 | -1.818022647 | 2.924871097 | 1.325919269 | 2.432767718 |
| 1978-10-01 | -2.209427147 | 3.371236769 | 1.467950745 | 2.629760367 |
| 1979-01-01 | -2.474067058 | 4.004111499 | 1.663668999 | 3.193713439 |
| 1979-04-01 | -2.628233916 | 4.778380362 | 1.652466848 | 3.802613294 |
| 1979-07-01 | -2.620922287 | 5.582505558 | 1.836175956 | 4.797759227 |
| 1979-10-01 | -2.502491108 | 6.377735004 | 1.917728648 | 5.792972544 |
| 1980-01-01 | -2.298334019 | 7.054063428 | 2.433173559 | 7.188902968 |
| 1980-04-01 | -2.048602668 | 7.420418027 | 2.34690678 | 7.718722139 |
| 1980-07-01 | -1.723575924 | 7.437217615 | 1.274533432 | 6.988175122 |
| 1980-10-01 | -1.334412084 | 7.168272559 | 0.934441225 | 6.7683017 |
| 1981-01-01 | -0.864959786 | 6.778191924 | 0.124211311 | 6.037443449 |
| 1981-04-01 | -0.441861284 | 6.379460183 | -0.575152719 | 5.36244618 |
| 1981-07-01 | -0.125754735 | 5.984254314 | -0.263545172 | 5.594954406 |
| 1981-10-01 | 0.050611813 | 5.517580612 | -0.353123989 | 5.215068435 |
| 1982-01-01 | 0.117194649 | 4.919458316 | -0.864973103 | 4.171679862 |
| 1982-04-01 | 0.108155817 | 4.223876233 | -0.457111633 | 3.874920417 |
| 1982-07-01 | 0.06198909 | 3.564980396 | 0.035876687 | 3.662846172 |
| 1982-10-01 | 0.013752643 | 3.073746527 | 0.055814741 | 3.143313911 |
| 1983-01-01 | -0.040088348 | 2.822295384 | 0.093178708 | 2.875385744 |
| 1983-04-01 | -0.13728099 | 2.815321551 | -0.15642704 | 2.521613521 |
| 1983-07-01 | -0.278970469 | 3.002862959 | -0.946904281 | 1.776988209 |
| 1983-10-01 | -0.473233918 | 3.27461879 | -0.927802031 | 1.873582841 |
2020s
Deviation from 2019:Q4. Percentage point
| Date | Global activity shocks | Commodity shocks | Idiosyncratic shocks | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-01-01 | -0.587594464 | 0.201197713 | 0.485000139 | 0.098603388 |
| 2020-04-01 | -0.580198882 | 0.393054643 | -0.93792892 | -1.125073159 |
| 2020-07-01 | -0.599539416 | 0.618307757 | -0.773945469 | -0.755177128 |
| 2020-10-01 | -0.401075604 | 0.756186751 | -1.206766623 | -0.851655476 |
| 2021-01-01 | -0.015198866 | 0.769700358 | -0.930091729 | -0.175590237 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.531875833 | 0.564437442 | 0.43633205 | 1.532645326 |
| 2021-07-01 | 1.162874306 | 0.478702668 | 0.385241125 | 2.026818098 |
| 2021-10-01 | 1.610596627 | 0.540959829 | 1.106866858 | 3.258423315 |
| 2022-01-01 | 1.909121151 | 0.584016755 | 1.801315996 | 4.294453901 |
| 2022-04-01 | 2.081595956 | 0.656693396 | 2.660516307 | 5.398805659 |
| 2022-07-01 | 2.059670114 | 0.932608857 | 2.73591719 | 5.728196161 |
| 2022-10-01 | 1.808677944 | 1.201722221 | 2.48408269 | 5.494482854 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1.459166732 | 1.445561237 | 1.62479929 | 4.529527259 |
| 2023-04-01 | 1.115838408 | 1.574732135 | 0.475041624 | 3.165612168 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.806652917 | 1.577522311 | 0.12610118 | 2.510276408 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.534906859 | 1.367371351 | -0.190030396 | 1.712247814 |
| 2024-01-01 | 0.265704108 | 1.047626345 | 0.223387056 | 1.536717509 |
Note: Figure 4 illustrates decomposition for selected inflationary periods stemming from vector autoregressive models estimated from 1961:Q1 to 1994:Q4 (left panel) and from 1995:Q1 to 2024:Q1 (right panel). Global component of headline inflation and its decomposition are constructed from economy-specific core inflation weights and aggregated with GDP weights. Global activity shocks combine shocks to the global component of core inflation, to global GDP, and to labor market shortages. Commodity shocks combine shocks to the global component of noncore inflation, to oil prices, and to global commodity prices. Noncore inflation encompasses food and energy categories.
Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.
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Last Update:
June 28, 2024