Measuring Bank Credit Supply Shocks Using the Senior Loan Officer Survey, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Aggregate Bank Lending Standards and Loan Demand Indices

Net Percent
Quarterly

Date Standards.Index Demand.Index
1991 Q3 12.0 -16.5
1991 Q4 0.7 -13.5
1992 Q1 4.2 17.9
1992 Q2 12.4 3.3
1992 Q3 -2.5 15.2
1992 Q4 2.9 10.3
1993 Q1 -1.0 18.0
1993 Q2 -26.0 30.9
1993 Q3 -20.6 22.5
1993 Q4 -10.0 32.9
1994 Q1 -8.7 27.5
1994 Q2 -5.3 -5.0
1994 Q3 -14.8 -7.3
1994 Q4 -7.9 -17.7
1995 Q1 -14.5 1.3
1995 Q2 -2.1 29.4
1995 Q3 0.7 8.2
1995 Q4 11.3 12.1
1996 Q1 3.3 16.1
1996 Q2 9.2 -0.2
1996 Q3 10.1 -4.8
1996 Q4 3.0 2.1
1997 Q1 -0.9 -1.8
1997 Q2 -4.0 22.4
1997 Q3 0.3 22.5
1997 Q4 0.8 35.7
1998 Q1 -5.7 39.4
1998 Q2 2.8 20.9
1998 Q3 31.5 19.0
1998 Q4 9.0 6.0
1999 Q1 7.6 2.1
1999 Q2 3.6 -11.8
1999 Q3 5.7 -21.6
1999 Q4 5.0 -15.1
2000 Q1 8.4 -11.8
2000 Q2 18.9 -11.2
2000 Q3 32.5 -22.0
2000 Q4 43.2 -39.1
2001 Q1 30.7 -2.9
2001 Q2 24.3 -21.9
2001 Q3 40.5 -31.1
2001 Q4 31.7 -17.2
2002 Q1 16.7 -9.8
2002 Q2 15.9 -18.0
2002 Q3 17.8 -11.8
2002 Q4 20.4 -2.8
2003 Q1 8.7 -7.5
2003 Q2 0.5 11.5
2003 Q3 -3.3 -9.2
2003 Q4 -10.1 -8.1
2004 Q1 -18.9 4.4
2004 Q2 -13.9 15.8
2004 Q3 -16.3 14.2
2004 Q4 -18.2 -3.2
2005 Q1 -18.3 9.4
2005 Q2 -15.1 28.7
2005 Q3 -12.0 5.5
2005 Q4 -7.5 -8.4
2006 Q1 -18.3 -13.4
2006 Q2 -19.7 -28.6
2006 Q3 -0.9 -30.9
2006 Q4 8.7 -10.8
2007 Q1 21.6 -14.9
2007 Q2 32.3 -11.6
2007 Q3 60.1 -46.4
2007 Q4 65.8 -41.1
2008 Q1 77.7 -32.7
2008 Q2 78.9 -26.5
2008 Q3 87.2 -53.5
2008 Q4 70.2 -55.1
2009 Q1 54.9 -30.1
2009 Q2 42.6 -38.4
2009 Q3 31.0 -18.8
2009 Q4 1.4 -26.0
2010 Q1 0.5 -11.4
2010 Q2 -8.2 -14.5
2010 Q3 -4.6 6.1
2010 Q4 -5.3 9.2
2011 Q1 -17.2 12.6
2011 Q2 -18.3 15.9
2011 Q3 -5.3 7.8
2011 Q4 -2.4 11.7
2012 Q1 -5.9 12.4
2012 Q2 -7.2 16.2
2012 Q3 -5.2 20.2
2012 Q4 -7.3 20.1
2013 Q1 -15.2 24.0
2013 Q2 -15.4 20.2
2013 Q3 -23.2 -6.1
2013 Q4 -13.5 -10.6
2014 Q1 -6.1 -1.5
2014 Q2 -12.6 21.3
2014 Q3 -25.4 2.5
2014 Q4 -14.7 17.6
2015 Q1 -13.2 19.9
2015 Q2 -7.8 18.9
2015 Q3 -7.6 10.2
2015 Q4 -3.0 9.2
2016 Q1 -0.8 9.4
2016 Q2 7.0 14.3
2016 Q3 5.6 6.0
2016 Q4 -1.9 -11.4
2017 Q1 5.3 -13.3
2017 Q2 8.4 0.3
2017 Q3 4.7 -16.5
2017 Q4 -1.1 -9.4
2018 Q1 -6.2 -21.0
2018 Q2 -10.7 2.3
2018 Q3 -12.7 -12.2
2018 Q4 -1.8 -17.0
2019 Q1 -0.8 -22.6
2019 Q2 -0.1 14.4
2019 Q3 10.9 12.1
2019 Q4 4.3 -3.2
2020 Q1 45.6 -0.2
2020 Q2 77.2 -39.0
2020 Q3 24.1 -11.1
2020 Q4 -14.1 -7.0
2021 Q1 -37.3 9.7
2021 Q2 -40.1 30.6
2021 Q3 -25.6 4.7
2021 Q4 -16.6 25.1
2022 Q1 -8.7 4.2
2022 Q2 11.5 -15.4
2022 Q3 28.6 -33.4
2022 Q4 31.6 -49.7
2023 Q1 39.0 -32.3
2023 Q2 33.5 -17.9
2023 Q3 25.0 -24.7
2023 Q4 17.6 -29.4

Note: The Bank Lending Standards Index (the black line) and the Bank Loan Demand Index (the purple line) show the net share of banks reporting tighter standards or stronger demand, respectively, aggregated across loan categories by the size of the banks’ portfolios in the Call Reports. Positive (negative) values of the two indexes denote either reported net tightening (easing) of lending standards, which is captured by the black line, or reported net strengthening (weakening) of loan demand, which is captured by the purple line. Gray shaded bars denote periods of recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 2001:Q2–2001:Q4, 2008:Q1–2009:Q2, and 2020:Q1–2020:Q2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Report of Conditions and Income (Call Report); Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 2. Decomposition of Drivers of Predicted Lending Standards

Percent
Quarterly

Date Predicted.Standards.Index Standards.Index Bank.Characteristics Macro.Conditions Demand.Index Lagged.Standards.Index
2015 Q1 -19.7 -13.2 2.6 -14.9 -2.1 -5.4
2015 Q2 -8.4 -7.8 2.7 -4.2 -1.8 -5.0
2015 Q3 -2.4 -7.6 2.7 -1.2 -1.0 -2.9
2015 Q4 -0.5 -3.0 2.7 0.7 -0.9 -2.9
2016 Q1 3.8 -0.8 2.8 3.1 -1.0 -1.1
2016 Q2 -5.9 7.0 2.8 -6.8 -1.6 -0.3
2016 Q3 2.6 5.6 2.9 -2.2 -0.4 2.3
2016 Q4 1.7 -1.9 2.8 -4.5 1.2 2.2
2017 Q1 7.0 5.3 3.0 3.2 1.3 -0.5
2017 Q2 2.3 8.4 2.8 -2.5 -0.1 2.0
2017 Q3 4.6 4.7 2.7 -3.0 1.7 3.1
2017 Q4 3.6 -1.1 2.6 -1.9 1.0 1.8
2018 Q1 -4.1 -6.2 2.5 -8.4 2.2 -0.4
2018 Q2 -3.0 -10.7 2.7 -3.2 -0.2 -2.4
2018 Q3 -2.6 -12.7 2.7 -2.3 1.2 -4.2
2018 Q4 2.2 -1.8 2.6 2.6 1.7 -4.7
2019 Q1 6.7 -0.8 2.7 2.3 2.3 -0.7
2019 Q2 4.3 -0.1 2.7 3.6 -1.7 -0.3
2019 Q3 3.1 10.9 2.5 2.1 -1.3 -0.3
2019 Q4 10.2 4.3 2.7 3.0 0.3 4.2
2020 Q1 14.4 45.6 2.6 10.9 -0.6 1.5
2020 Q2 52.4 77.2 3.4 27.5 3.4 18.1
2020 Q3 39.1 24.1 4.3 5.3 0.6 28.8
2020 Q4 23.0 -14.1 3.9 8.7 0.8 9.5
2021 Q1 -9.4 -37.3 3.5 -6.9 -0.9 -5.1
2021 Q2 -41.5 -40.1 3.2 -27.4 -3.3 -14.0
2021 Q3 -26.9 -25.6 3.0 -14.4 -0.3 -15.2
2021 Q4 -19.9 -16.6 3.0 -10.2 -2.9 -9.8
2022 Q1 -10.9 -8.7 3.3 -7.7 -0.2 -6.2
2022 Q2 3.3 11.5 3.5 1.6 1.5 -3.3
2022 Q3 13.7 28.6 3.7 2.5 2.9 4.6
2022 Q4 27.5 31.6 3.4 9.3 4.4 10.4
2023 Q1 26.5 39.0 2.8 8.5 2.9 12.3
2023 Q2 32.1 33.5 3.0 12.7 1.6 14.7
2023 Q3 20.9 25.0 2.5 4.3 2.1 11.9
2023 Q4 22.4 17.6 2.5 7.4 2.7 9.9

Note: The Bank Lending Standards Index (the black solid line) shows the net share of banks reporting tighter standards aggregated across loan categories weighted by the size of banks’ portfolios in the Call Report. The Predicted Aggregate Lending Standards Index (the black dashed-and-dotted line) shows the weighted net share of banks reporting tighter lending standards predicted by a model that incorporates macroeconomic, financial, demand-side, and bank-specific factors using the estimated coefficients from the regression specification shown in the fourth column of Table 1. “Bank” (the light green bars) refers to the predicted component explained by bank fixed effects, banks’ changes in net interest margins, changes in loan loss provisions, the share of core loans, the share of core deposits, the return on assets, relative size, and Tier 1 capital ratio; “Macro” (the orange hatched bars) refers to the predicted component explained by contemporaneous changes in real GDP, unemployment rate, excess bond premium, real federal funds rate, and VIX index, as well as four-quarter ahead expected changes in real GDP, unemployment rate, 3-month Treasury bill yield, and 10-year Treasury bond yield. “Demand” (the purple bars) refers to the predicted component explained by contemporaneous changes in demand; and “Lagged Standards” (the light blue bars) refers to the predicted component explained by past changes in lending standards.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Report of Conditions and Income (Call Report); Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 3. Aggregate Bank Credit Supply Indicator

Net Percent
Quarterly

Date Standards.Index Credit.Supply.Indicator
1992 Q1 -1.3 4.2
1992 Q2 5.7 12.4
1992 Q3 -10.2 -2.5
1992 Q4 4.8 2.9
1993 Q1 -0.2 -1.0
1993 Q2 -22.1 -26.0
1993 Q3 -12.5 -20.6
1993 Q4 -0.3 -10.0
1994 Q1 3.3 -8.7
1994 Q2 -2.1 -5.3
1994 Q3 -11.5 -14.8
1994 Q4 -1.1 -7.9
1995 Q1 -15.1 -14.5
1995 Q2 1.4 -2.1
1995 Q3 -3.6 0.7
1995 Q4 2.0 11.3
1996 Q1 -3.1 3.3
1996 Q2 1.5 9.2
1996 Q3 2.3 10.1
1996 Q4 -4.9 3.0
1997 Q1 -3.5 -0.9
1997 Q2 -2.2 -4.0
1997 Q3 5.6 0.3
1997 Q4 5.5 0.8
1998 Q1 -2.6 -5.7
1998 Q2 6.3 2.8
1998 Q3 30.0 31.5
1998 Q4 -10.7 9.0
1999 Q1 6.0 7.6
1999 Q2 -1.8 3.6
1999 Q3 -1.8 5.7
1999 Q4 1.2 5.0
2000 Q1 -1.7 8.4
2000 Q2 14.3 18.9
2000 Q3 13.0 32.5
2000 Q4 13.9 43.2
2001 Q1 6.7 30.7
2001 Q2 -7.3 24.3
2001 Q3 12.5 40.5
2001 Q4 2.4 31.7
2002 Q1 -9.1 16.7
2002 Q2 -0.6 15.9
2002 Q3 0.8 17.8
2002 Q4 16.8 20.4
2003 Q1 7.3 8.7
2003 Q2 7.9 0.5
2003 Q3 1.9 -3.3
2003 Q4 -5.7 -10.1
2004 Q1 -4.1 -18.9
2004 Q2 0.7 -13.9
2004 Q3 -1.5 -16.3
2004 Q4 -2.5 -18.2
2005 Q1 1.5 -18.3
2005 Q2 -2.0 -15.1
2005 Q3 1.9 -12.0
2005 Q4 -3.5 -7.5
2006 Q1 -12.7 -18.3
2006 Q2 -18.5 -19.7
2006 Q3 -5.5 -0.9
2006 Q4 3.0 8.7
2007 Q1 7.6 21.6
2007 Q2 15.0 32.3
2007 Q3 27.9 60.1
2007 Q4 22.0 65.8
2008 Q1 24.2 77.7
2008 Q2 34.2 78.9
2008 Q3 23.4 87.2
2008 Q4 -11.5 70.2
2009 Q1 -2.6 54.9
2009 Q2 3.5 42.6
2009 Q3 6.6 31.0
2009 Q4 -24.1 1.4
2010 Q1 -9.9 0.5
2010 Q2 -5.5 -8.2
2010 Q3 3.9 -4.6
2010 Q4 3.8 -5.3
2011 Q1 -14.3 -17.2
2011 Q2 -13.2 -18.3
2011 Q3 -3.0 -5.3
2011 Q4 -5.7 -2.4
2012 Q1 -3.3 -5.9
2012 Q2 -1.6 -7.2
2012 Q3 -0.4 -5.2
2012 Q4 -7.9 -7.3
2013 Q1 -14.4 -15.2
2013 Q2 -6.0 -15.4
2013 Q3 -24.9 -23.2
2013 Q4 -5.2 -13.5
2014 Q1 0.0 -6.1
2014 Q2 -4.9 -12.6
2014 Q3 -14.3 -25.4
2014 Q4 -2.0 -14.7
2015 Q1 6.5 -13.2
2015 Q2 0.5 -7.8
2015 Q3 -5.2 -7.6
2015 Q4 -2.5 -3.0
2016 Q1 -4.6 -0.8
2016 Q2 12.9 7.0
2016 Q3 3.0 5.6
2016 Q4 -3.7 -1.9
2017 Q1 -1.7 5.3
2017 Q2 6.1 8.4
2017 Q3 0.1 4.7
2017 Q4 -4.7 -1.1
2018 Q1 -2.1 -6.2
2018 Q2 -7.7 -10.7
2018 Q3 -10.1 -12.7
2018 Q4 -4.0 -1.8
2019 Q1 -7.5 -0.8
2019 Q2 -4.4 -0.1
2019 Q3 7.9 10.9
2019 Q4 -5.9 4.3
2020 Q1 31.2 45.6
2020 Q2 24.8 77.2
2020 Q3 -15.0 24.1
2020 Q4 -37.1 -14.1
2021 Q1 -27.9 -37.3
2021 Q2 1.4 -40.1
2021 Q3 1.2 -25.6
2021 Q4 3.3 -16.6
2022 Q1 2.2 -8.7
2022 Q2 8.2 11.5
2022 Q3 14.8 28.6
2022 Q4 4.1 31.6
2023 Q1 12.5 39.0
2023 Q2 1.4 33.5
2023 Q3 4.1 25.0
2023 Q4 -4.8 17.6

*On May 30, 2024, this table was updated to include data from 1992:Q1 through the 2023:Q4. Previously, only data from 2015:Q1 through 2023:Q4 were included in the table.

Note: The Bank Lending Standards Index (the black line) shows the net share of banks reporting tighter standards aggregated across loan categories weighted by the size of banks’ portfolios in the Call Report. The Bank Credit Supply Indicator (the red line) shows the weighted net share of banks reporting tighter standards, after adjusting for macroeconomic, financial, demand-side, and bank-specific factors using the estimated coefficients from the regression specification shown in the fourth column of Table 1. Gray shaded bars denote periods of recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 2001:Q2–2001:Q4, 2008:Q1–2009:Q2, and 2020:Q1–2020:Q2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Report of Conditions and Income (Call Report); Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 4. Bank Credit Supply Indicators

Panel A. C&I Loans
Net Percent
Quarterly

Date C.I.Standards.Index C.I.Credit.Supply.Indicator
1992 Q1 1.2 -1.0
1992 Q2 -1.1 -4.1
1992 Q3 1.3 3.2
1992 Q4 0.0 3.1
1993 Q1 -15.8 -14.0
1993 Q2 -23.8 -15.9
1993 Q3 -25.1 -19.4
1993 Q4 -15.5 -6.7
1994 Q1 -12.9 1.3
1994 Q2 1.2 8.0
1994 Q3 -23.4 -18.6
1994 Q4 -11.8 0.4
1995 Q1 -9.3 -8.3
1995 Q2 -6.5 -6.3
1995 Q3 -7.3 -10.5
1995 Q4 8.6 -0.6
1996 Q1 -2.2 -8.0
1996 Q2 0.8 -2.2
1996 Q3 4.3 1.7
1996 Q4 -7.0 -10.3
1997 Q1 -2.3 1.1
1997 Q2 -4.9 -3.9
1997 Q3 -3.7 1.6
1997 Q4 -0.6 3.8
1998 Q1 -4.2 -1.2
1998 Q2 4.4 7.0
1998 Q3 57.0 52.9
1998 Q4 13.4 -11.9
1999 Q1 8.6 7.9
1999 Q2 5.1 1.4
1999 Q3 13.3 6.0
1999 Q4 8.8 3.6
2000 Q1 15.9 0.9
2000 Q2 34.1 25.6
2000 Q3 67.3 40.3
2000 Q4 75.5 31.5
2001 Q1 45.4 10.0
2001 Q2 41.7 3.4
2001 Q3 64.1 29.3
2001 Q4 56.4 21.1
2002 Q1 24.7 -11.7
2002 Q2 35.9 14.8
2002 Q3 36.1 9.9
2002 Q4 36.2 29.2
2003 Q1 14.1 9.5
2003 Q2 -5.4 2.2
2003 Q3 -7.0 1.4
2003 Q4 -31.9 -23.5
2004 Q1 -39.1 -14.6
2004 Q2 -24.0 -3.1
2004 Q3 -32.0 -10.9
2004 Q4 -45.8 -21.4
2005 Q1 -27.3 6.7
2005 Q2 -25.6 -6.4
2005 Q3 -15.7 3.4
2005 Q4 -6.5 1.8
2006 Q1 -37.8 -29.4
2006 Q2 -12.3 -1.5
2006 Q3 -14.2 -18.6
2006 Q4 -10.6 -8.6
2007 Q1 -21.0 -27.4
2007 Q2 10.5 10.2
2007 Q3 33.5 13.9
2007 Q4 35.8 10.1
2008 Q1 58.6 22.0
2008 Q2 57.7 28.7
2008 Q3 86.1 38.0
2008 Q4 59.7 -21.1
2009 Q1 15.0 -33.3
2009 Q2 8.9 -10.0
2009 Q3 6.3 -1.9
2009 Q4 -15.8 -27.6
2010 Q1 -13.7 -14.9
2010 Q2 -16.8 -5.3
2010 Q3 -7.9 8.5
2010 Q4 -15.6 1.7
2011 Q1 -20.6 -11.6
2011 Q2 -19.0 -11.0
2011 Q3 -0.5 2.7
2011 Q4 3.2 1.9
2012 Q1 -13.0 -6.7
2012 Q2 -7.9 2.8
2012 Q3 -2.8 6.5
2012 Q4 -5.3 -4.6
2013 Q1 -19.7 -20.4
2013 Q2 -20.9 -10.2
2013 Q3 -9.8 -8.3
2013 Q4 -10.6 -3.3
2014 Q1 -6.1 1.6
2014 Q2 -9.4 -0.3
2014 Q3 -6.3 6.9
2014 Q4 -2.8 3.5
2015 Q1 -1.6 16.4
2015 Q2 1.9 7.1
2015 Q3 4.3 3.3
2015 Q4 10.4 6.8
2016 Q1 8.3 -1.2
2016 Q2 9.1 14.0
2016 Q3 1.6 1.5
2016 Q4 -5.6 -0.9
2017 Q1 -0.5 -5.0
2017 Q2 -0.4 0.1
2017 Q3 -5.7 -4.6
2017 Q4 -16.8 -14.9
2018 Q1 -19.3 -7.1
2018 Q2 -14.5 -6.3
2018 Q3 -15.2 -11.3
2018 Q4 -7.1 -9.4
2019 Q1 -7.5 -11.2
2019 Q2 -13.1 -16.4
2019 Q3 0.9 1.6
2019 Q4 -7.7 -11.8
2020 Q1 42.0 32.5
2020 Q2 64.8 18.3
2020 Q3 24.7 -7.4
2020 Q4 -21.2 -44.0
2021 Q1 -37.6 -28.9
2021 Q2 -49.8 -7.8
2021 Q3 -24.4 5.4
2021 Q4 -11.4 8.5
2022 Q1 -4.4 5.1
2022 Q2 13.4 9.5
2022 Q3 36.2 25.1
2022 Q4 24.3 -2.2
2023 Q1 36.4 15.1
2023 Q2 25.4 -4.2
2023 Q3 15.8 0.5
2023 Q4 1.7 -15.4

Panel B. CRE Loans
Net Percent
Quarterly

Date CRE.Standards.Index CRE.Credit.Supply.Indicator
1996 Q2 2.4 -16.1
1996 Q3 -0.1 -8.5
1996 Q4 1.1 -4.9
1997 Q1 -16.7 -21.4
1997 Q2 -7.8 -1.4
1997 Q3 -11.7 -0.4
1997 Q4 -12.8 0.4
1998 Q1 -11.6 -4.9
1998 Q2 -6.3 2.1
1998 Q3 35.1 34.1
1998 Q4 9.9 -6.7
1999 Q1 10.0 8.7
1999 Q2 8.4 3.0
1999 Q3 1.1 -9.7
1999 Q4 -2.5 -4.1
2000 Q1 8.7 -4.8
2000 Q2 27.4 19.1
2000 Q3 34.5 7.4
2000 Q4 46.9 12.8
2001 Q1 41.5 11.0
2001 Q2 30.6 -12.1
2001 Q3 41.6 -0.4
2001 Q4 33.3 -4.8
2002 Q1 20.8 -16.4
2002 Q2 16.2 -9.4
2002 Q3 12.3 -9.5
2002 Q4 7.6 5.8
2003 Q1 8.5 12.1
2003 Q2 5.5 11.3
2003 Q3 -1.7 -0.7
2003 Q4 -1.6 1.7
2004 Q1 -20.5 -7.1
2004 Q2 -11.5 1.2
2004 Q3 -18.4 -6.8
2004 Q4 -22.2 -6.8
2005 Q1 -23.5 0.7
2005 Q2 -16.0 -4.7
2005 Q3 11.0 23.3
2005 Q4 -1.5 -8.5
2006 Q1 7.9 11.4
2006 Q2 6.4 -4.7
2006 Q3 28.9 6.0
2006 Q4 19.9 -5.0
2007 Q1 17.9 -8.8
2007 Q2 22.1 0.9
2007 Q3 65.2 33.7
2007 Q4 80.0 31.7
2008 Q1 82.6 20.8
2008 Q2 74.7 24.3
2008 Q3 83.9 15.2
2008 Q4 79.3 -13.3
2009 Q1 65.7 -3.4
2009 Q2 41.7 -13.0
2009 Q3 31.4 -1.5
2009 Q4 25.6 -5.4
2010 Q1 6.5 -14.5
2010 Q2 1.7 1.8
2010 Q3 -0.4 6.3
2010 Q4 -2.3 9.1
2011 Q1 -16.1 -15.1
2011 Q2 -9.2 -6.5
2011 Q3 -12.3 -13.3
2011 Q4 -5.6 -5.3
2012 Q1 -14.1 -10.2
2012 Q2 -20.4 -12.6
2012 Q3 -7.1 3.8
2012 Q4 -12.6 -12.2
2013 Q1 -23.8 -21.3
2013 Q2 -13.3 2.2
2013 Q3 -11.8 -16.6
2013 Q4 -11.4 -6.0
2014 Q1 -10.8 -6.8
2014 Q2 -21.9 -15.0
2014 Q3 -22.5 -6.4
2014 Q4 -21.8 -13.2
2015 Q1 -21.5 0.5
2015 Q2 -1.7 5.8
2015 Q3 -0.6 -2.6
2015 Q4 5.7 0.5
2016 Q1 28.0 17.1
2016 Q2 23.1 15.0
2016 Q3 17.0 6.6
2016 Q4 8.8 2.3
2017 Q1 12.5 -4.8
2017 Q2 8.8 -1.7
2017 Q3 2.2 -4.7
2017 Q4 0.9 -4.1
2018 Q1 -16.3 -13.2
2018 Q2 0.1 1.4
2018 Q3 -14.1 -20.2
2018 Q4 3.1 -3.2
2019 Q1 4.1 -8.2
2019 Q2 5.0 -8.2
2019 Q3 13.0 5.2
2019 Q4 1.8 -11.0
2020 Q1 70.5 46.4
2020 Q2 60.3 -5.7
2020 Q3 51.0 12.5
2020 Q4 19.0 -18.6
2021 Q1 -3.6 -8.6
2021 Q2 -17.0 6.8
2021 Q3 -17.6 -3.0
2021 Q4 -13.7 -7.3
2022 Q1 -5.5 -4.1
2022 Q2 41.3 22.6
2022 Q3 53.6 16.5
2022 Q4 55.9 10.0
2023 Q1 50.8 6.6
2023 Q2 56.7 13.6
2023 Q3 41.2 3.7
2023 Q4 32.3 -4.8

Panel C. RRE Loans
Net Percent
Quarterly

Date RRE.Standards.Index RRE.Credit.Supply.Indicator
1992 Q1 5.1 -5.5
1992 Q2 29.3 22.8
1992 Q3 -6.9 -21.6
1992 Q4 5.7 7.8
1993 Q1 13.9 14.6
1993 Q2 -34.0 -37.0
1993 Q3 -15.1 -8.1
1993 Q4 -1.9 4.9
1994 Q1 -3.4 5.6
1994 Q2 -9.1 -3.1
1994 Q3 -3.7 2.1
1994 Q4 -8.5 -1.8
1995 Q1 -29.3 -24.6
1995 Q2 3.1 12.4
1995 Q3 7.3 2.7
1995 Q4 -1.8 -10.8
1996 Q1 0.6 -1.9
1996 Q2 5.5 2.0
1996 Q3 6.3 3.4
1996 Q4 0.7 -4.4
1997 Q1 -1.3 -0.5
1997 Q2 -2.7 3.0
1997 Q3 2.8 11.3
1997 Q4 3.8 9.5
1998 Q1 -11.9 -9.2
1998 Q2 1.9 9.0
1998 Q3 2.1 2.4
1998 Q4 0.0 -8.1
1999 Q1 2.2 5.0
1999 Q2 -3.7 -5.8
1999 Q3 -0.6 -0.7
1999 Q4 2.7 3.2
2000 Q1 -0.5 -0.3
2000 Q2 0.0 4.1
2000 Q3 -2.6 -9.5
2000 Q4 -0.4 -8.4
2001 Q1 1.0 -5.1
2001 Q2 0.3 -14.0
2001 Q3 10.3 -3.4
2001 Q4 0.1 -12.1
2002 Q1 0.5 -5.6
2002 Q2 0.2 -1.8
2002 Q3 5.9 -0.8
2002 Q4 4.8 5.5
2003 Q1 3.4 8.5
2003 Q2 0.3 9.0
2003 Q3 -3.2 2.5
2003 Q4 -2.7 2.1
2004 Q1 1.7 10.5
2004 Q2 -14.4 -4.6
2004 Q3 -5.2 11.5
2004 Q4 -1.9 10.2
2005 Q1 -13.2 -1.6
2005 Q2 -13.3 -3.6
2005 Q3 -22.9 -10.8
2005 Q4 -9.6 -1.5
2006 Q1 -18.2 -10.9
2006 Q2 -40.6 -37.0
2006 Q3 -5.9 0.5
2006 Q4 29.4 28.5
2007 Q1 60.3 46.2
2007 Q2 49.5 28.6
2007 Q3 85.5 57.6
2007 Q4 84.1 41.7
2008 Q1 91.3 37.8
2008 Q2 94.1 50.4
2008 Q3 88.8 35.3
2008 Q4 69.5 7.5
2009 Q1 66.9 19.1
2009 Q2 52.7 17.1
2009 Q3 44.2 19.8
2009 Q4 -13.4 -41.0
2010 Q1 1.8 -4.3
2010 Q2 -5.2 0.1
2010 Q3 -2.1 2.1
2010 Q4 -2.0 0.8
2011 Q1 -16.1 -17.0
2011 Q2 -16.9 -14.7
2011 Q3 1.2 1.3
2011 Q4 2.5 -5.0
2012 Q1 5.2 2.0
2012 Q2 2.4 3.7
2012 Q3 -0.8 -0.8
2012 Q4 -6.7 -9.5
2013 Q1 -13.7 -13.5
2013 Q2 -12.6 -6.1
2013 Q3 -44.6 -46.5
2013 Q4 -18.2 -4.4
2014 Q1 -2.4 4.1
2014 Q2 -19.4 -14.1
2014 Q3 -54.2 -44.2
2014 Q4 -27.3 -6.6
2015 Q1 -26.4 -3.3
2015 Q2 -24.3 -10.4
2015 Q3 -14.9 -3.1
2015 Q4 -18.3 -11.1
2016 Q1 -25.3 -18.3
2016 Q2 -18.6 -0.7
2016 Q3 -10.0 -0.9
2016 Q4 -18.6 -10.6
2017 Q1 -6.5 -0.5
2017 Q2 -3.6 6.3
2017 Q3 -5.2 0.9
2017 Q4 -3.7 2.8
2018 Q1 -1.4 10.4
2018 Q2 -31.4 -23.5
2018 Q3 -22.4 -5.8
2018 Q4 -11.7 -2.9
2019 Q1 -3.8 0.4
2019 Q2 -1.1 3.2
2019 Q3 10.9 13.4
2019 Q4 -0.1 -5.2
2020 Q1 13.0 7.6
2020 Q2 90.7 51.8
2020 Q3 2.0 -33.5
2020 Q4 -26.3 -35.8
2021 Q1 -36.9 -26.0
2021 Q2 -32.5 4.5
2021 Q3 -21.7 0.5
2021 Q4 -27.5 -10.9
2022 Q1 -13.3 5.4
2022 Q2 -10.0 0.7
2022 Q3 8.0 14.8
2022 Q4 8.6 4.4
2023 Q1 18.5 14.1
2023 Q2 11.8 -0.8
2023 Q3 22.7 20.8
2023 Q4 6.2 -2.1

Panel D. Consumer Loans
Net Percent
Quarterly

Date Consumer.Standards.Index Consumer.Credit.Supply.Indicator
1996 Q1 8.5 -10.5
1996 Q2 33.6 9.6
1996 Q3 27.2 -1.4
1996 Q4 30.3 3.7
1997 Q1 26.8 2.1
1997 Q2 5.5 -13.3
1997 Q3 19.1 4.2
1997 Q4 14.5 -0.7
1998 Q1 7.6 -6.5
1998 Q2 10.2 -0.4
1998 Q3 6.1 -2.7
1998 Q4 14.4 -2.2
1999 Q1 14.7 3.6
1999 Q2 6.9 -5.6
1999 Q3 3.1 -9.0
1999 Q4 1.3 -3.8
2000 Q1 6.4 -3.9
2000 Q2 5.5 1.0
2000 Q3 11.2 1.0
2000 Q4 29.1 16.2
2001 Q1 17.7 1.9
2001 Q2 15.1 -9.9
2001 Q3 35.6 15.2
2001 Q4 19.3 -10.9
2002 Q1 20.2 -0.4
2002 Q2 8.5 -11.7
2002 Q3 10.2 -3.4
2002 Q4 29.1 23.0
2003 Q1 13.5 4.5
2003 Q2 4.0 3.5
2003 Q3 1.8 1.9
2003 Q4 2.2 1.3
2004 Q1 -9.7 -6.1
2004 Q2 0.2 4.5
2004 Q3 -9.4 -8.1
2004 Q4 -1.7 2.8
2005 Q1 -8.7 -3.9
2005 Q2 -0.8 2.0
2005 Q3 -17.2 -14.1
2005 Q4 -6.3 -3.3
2006 Q1 -14.8 -12.7
2006 Q2 -20.5 -20.6
2006 Q3 -7.7 -12.1
2006 Q4 -24.3 -26.2
2007 Q1 -4.0 -4.0
2007 Q2 23.0 18.0
2007 Q3 25.8 3.6
2007 Q4 39.2 13.2
2008 Q1 62.4 27.7
2008 Q2 91.3 51.9
2008 Q3 91.9 31.6
2008 Q4 75.3 4.8
2009 Q1 81.0 28.9
2009 Q2 55.4 12.5
2009 Q3 43.3 14.5
2009 Q4 17.4 -9.8
2010 Q1 5.8 -12.6
2010 Q2 -19.2 -26.1
2010 Q3 -12.0 -7.2
2010 Q4 -4.4 1.5
2011 Q1 -19.6 -18.9
2011 Q2 -37.5 -36.6
2011 Q3 -20.0 -13.9
2011 Q4 -15.9 -16.7
2012 Q1 -8.4 -5.8
2012 Q2 -10.7 -8.6
2012 Q3 -16.3 -16.8
2012 Q4 -8.7 -8.4
2013 Q1 -5.0 -5.2
2013 Q2 -13.0 -9.1
2013 Q3 -14.6 -15.5
2013 Q4 -9.8 -5.9
2014 Q1 -8.5 -3.8
2014 Q2 1.7 8.2
2014 Q3 -6.1 -1.2
2014 Q4 -3.9 -0.2
2015 Q1 -0.9 6.9
2015 Q2 -3.9 -5.7
2015 Q3 -21.1 -23.7
2015 Q4 -11.0 -9.7
2016 Q1 -9.6 -14.2
2016 Q2 25.6 25.7
2016 Q3 24.2 9.9
2016 Q4 18.2 4.9
2017 Q1 23.2 7.6
2017 Q2 41.7 29.5
2017 Q3 40.0 22.4
2017 Q4 24.4 5.2
2018 Q1 18.6 9.7
2018 Q2 13.9 3.7
2018 Q3 5.5 -4.5
2018 Q4 12.4 2.6
2019 Q1 8.2 -4.8
2019 Q2 14.7 3.4
2019 Q3 23.0 11.1
2019 Q4 29.5 12.5
2020 Q1 66.9 43.0
2020 Q2 98.6 40.3
2020 Q3 23.2 -18.8
2020 Q4 -24.6 -45.0
2021 Q1 -77.9 -62.9
2021 Q2 -64.2 -15.6
2021 Q3 -41.1 -9.0
2021 Q4 -11.4 8.2
2022 Q1 -12.2 -6.5
2022 Q2 0.2 -4.2
2022 Q3 15.5 5.4
2022 Q4 47.1 25.3
2023 Q1 54.6 24.9
2023 Q2 41.4 14.0
2023 Q3 18.6 -4.9
2023 Q4 37.6 19.2

Note: The C&I, CRE, RRE, and Consumer Lending Standards Indexes (the black solid lines in Panels A through D) show the net share of banks reporting tighter standards aggregated across the respective loan categories weighted by the size of banks’ corresponding loan portfolios in the Call Report. The C&I, CRE, RRE, and Consumer Bank Credit Supply Indicators (the red solid lines in Panels A through D) show the weighted net share of banks reporting tighter standards for loan in the respective categories, after adjusting for macroeconomic, financial, demand-side, and bank-specific factors using the estimated coefficients from the regression specification shown in the fourth column of Table 1. Gray shaded bars denote periods of recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 2001:Q2–2001:Q4, 2008:Q1–2009:Q2, and 2020:Q1–2020:Q2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Report of Conditions and Income (Call Report); Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 5. Bank Credit Supply Indicator and Cross-Category Aggregation CSI

Net Percent
Quarterly

Date Credit.Supply.Indicator Cross.Sectorial.Aggregation
1996 Q2 1.5 -1.3
1996 Q3 2.3 -0.2
1996 Q4 -4.9 -5.4
1997 Q1 -3.5 -2.8
1997 Q2 -2.2 -3.2
1997 Q3 5.6 4.4
1997 Q4 5.5 4.0
1998 Q1 -2.6 -5.0
1998 Q2 6.3 5.5
1998 Q3 30.0 27.5
1998 Q4 -10.7 -8.4
1999 Q1 6.0 6.6
1999 Q2 -1.8 -1.2
1999 Q3 -1.8 -0.8
1999 Q4 1.2 1.1
2000 Q1 -1.7 -1.2
2000 Q2 14.3 15.0
2000 Q3 13.0 14.5
2000 Q4 13.9 14.5
2001 Q1 6.7 4.8
2001 Q2 -7.3 -6.7
2001 Q3 12.5 11.7
2001 Q4 2.4 1.7
2002 Q1 -9.1 -9.3
2002 Q2 -0.6 0.4
2002 Q3 0.8 0.3
2002 Q4 16.8 15.5
2003 Q1 7.3 9.0
2003 Q2 7.9 6.7
2003 Q3 1.9 1.4
2003 Q4 -5.7 -5.3
2004 Q1 -4.1 -2.8
2004 Q2 0.7 -1.3
2004 Q3 -1.5 -1.9
2004 Q4 -2.5 -2.6
2005 Q1 1.5 0.6
2005 Q2 -2.0 -3.6
2005 Q3 1.9 -0.1
2005 Q4 -3.5 -2.5
2006 Q1 -12.7 -11.0
2006 Q2 -18.5 -17.7
2006 Q3 -5.5 -5.1
2006 Q4 3.0 3.5
2007 Q1 7.6 8.0
2007 Q2 15.0 16.1
2007 Q3 27.9 32.7
2007 Q4 22.0 27.1
2008 Q1 24.2 28.3
2008 Q2 34.2 38.9
2008 Q3 23.4 30.6
2008 Q4 -11.5 -5.6
2009 Q1 -2.6 1.6
2009 Q2 3.5 2.4
2009 Q3 6.6 8.3
2009 Q4 -24.1 -23.9
2010 Q1 -9.9 -10.6
2010 Q2 -5.5 -5.2
2010 Q3 3.9 3.0
2010 Q4 3.8 3.1
2011 Q1 -14.3 -15.6
2011 Q2 -13.2 -15.3
2011 Q3 -3.0 -4.3
2011 Q4 -5.7 -5.5
2012 Q1 -3.3 -4.2
2012 Q2 -1.6 -2.2
2012 Q3 -0.4 -0.7
2012 Q4 -7.9 -8.6
2013 Q1 -14.4 -15.5
2013 Q2 -6.0 -6.0
2013 Q3 -24.9 -24.3
2013 Q4 -5.2 -4.7
2014 Q1 0.0 -0.3
2014 Q2 -4.9 -6.4
2014 Q3 -14.3 -13.8
2014 Q4 -2.0 -3.8
2015 Q1 6.5 5.2
2015 Q2 0.5 -1.0
2015 Q3 -5.2 -5.1
2015 Q4 -2.5 -3.0
2016 Q1 -4.6 -4.8
2016 Q2 12.9 12.0
2016 Q3 3.0 3.4
2016 Q4 -3.7 -1.9
2017 Q1 -1.7 -1.3
2017 Q2 6.1 7.0
2017 Q3 0.1 2.0
2017 Q4 -4.7 -3.5
2018 Q1 -2.1 -0.3
2018 Q2 -7.7 -7.7
2018 Q3 -10.1 -10.4
2018 Q4 -4.0 -3.9
2019 Q1 -7.5 -6.1
2019 Q2 -4.4 -5.2
2019 Q3 7.9 7.6
2019 Q4 -5.9 -4.7
2020 Q1 31.2 30.9
2020 Q2 24.8 26.2
2020 Q3 -15.0 -12.5
2020 Q4 -37.1 -36.3
2021 Q1 -27.9 -30.1
2021 Q2 1.4 -2.7
2021 Q3 1.2 -0.8
2021 Q4 3.3 -0.3
2022 Q1 2.2 0.8
2022 Q2 8.2 7.3
2022 Q3 14.8 16.4
2022 Q4 4.1 8.2
2023 Q1 12.5 15.2
2023 Q2 1.4 4.5
2023 Q3 4.1 5.6
2023 Q4 -4.8 -1.9

Note: The Bank Credit Supply Indicator (the red solid line) shows the weighted net share of banks reporting tighter standards, after adjusting for macroeconomic, financial, demand-side, and bank-specific factors using the estimated coefficients from the regression specification shown in the fourth column of Table 1. The Cross-Category Aggregation CSI (the black dashed-and-dotted line) shows the aggregation across lending categories of category-weighted net share of banks reporting tighter standards, after adjusting for macroeconomic, financial, demand-side, and bank-specific factors using the estimated coefficients from the regression specification shown in the fourth column of Table 1. Gray shaded bars denote periods of recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 2001:Q2–2001:Q4, 2008:Q1–2009:Q2, and 2020:Q1–2020:Q2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Report of Conditions and Income (Call Report); Authors’ calculations.

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Last Update: May 30, 2024