Accessible Version

Private Credit Growth and Monetary Policy Transmission, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Jumbo Loans ($1 billion or more) by Direct Lenders

Billions of USD

Year Volume
2019 5.77
2020 6.00
2021 47.98
2022 59.22
2023 50.34

Note: Data in 2019 start in May.

Source: KBRA Analytics DLD News.

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Figure 2. Public and Private Credit Markets

Left Panel: Leveraged Loans and Direct Lending Takeouts
Billions of USD

Quarter DL refinanced by LL LL refinanced by DL
2023-Q1 0.33 0.55
2023-Q2 0.38 0.95
2023-Q3 0.85 8.49
2023-Q4 0.43 10.26
2024-Q1 11.84 2.73

Right Panel: Volume of U.S. Debt Outstandings
Billions of USD

Date Leveraged loans High-yield bonds Direct lending AUM
2009-12 528.61 804.54 43.53
2010-01 526.35 815.14  
2010-02 518.50 812.49  
2010-03 510.76 832.64  
2010-04 500.81 856.34  
2010-05 503.64 851.12  
2010-06 501.05 848.18  
2010-07 510.36 854.82  
2010-08 512.65 860.72  
2010-09 512.81 864.80  
2010-10 509.75 878.50  
2010-11 504.84 890.08  
2010-12 497.47 887.12 53.36
2011-01 501.99 892.56  
2011-02 493.52 888.91  
2011-03 492.98 889.43  
2011-04 501.19 889.23  
2011-05 506.70 900.58  
2011-06 518.47 891.69  
2011-07 517.41 895.67  
2011-08 519.13 878.28  
2011-09 512.96 876.62  
2011-10 516.54 882.05  
2011-11 513.94 895.99  
2011-12 516.87 885.01 62.96
2012-01 518.20 899.53  
2012-02 515.63 907.96  
2012-03 510.40 910.43  
2012-04 517.33 915.08  
2012-05 519.04 916.11  
2012-06 528.85 914.54  
2012-07 527.86 921.36  
2012-08 529.19 926.02  
2012-09 524.47 960.39  
2012-10 533.77 970.02  
2012-11 533.22 963.88  
2012-12 550.43 976.23 77.00
2013-01 548.06 977.83  
2013-02 554.50 996.15  
2013-03 561.73 995.41  
2013-04 563.91 1013.33  
2013-05 567.96 1026.18  
2013-06 593.04 1009.92  
2013-07 603.58 1015.52  
2013-08 623.20 1008.22  
2013-09 638.20 1033.43  
2013-10 645.75 1063.92  
2013-11 673.18 1064.67  
2013-12 681.74 1061.95 113.68
2014-01 685.82 1069.09  
2014-02 691.38 1074.46  
2014-03 711.18 1073.14  
2014-04 723.95 1085.07  
2014-05 746.26 1097.78  
2014-06 756.80 1100.85  
2014-07 773.31 1102.45  
2014-08 786.45 1091.89  
2014-09 805.22 1127.46  
2014-10 802.14 1138.56  
2014-11 821.57 1139.21  
2014-12 831.40 1127.60 120.31
2015-01 829.83 1133.25  
2015-02 840.80 1141.95  
2015-03 837.86 1158.43  
2015-04 835.50 1157.91  
2015-05 836.56 1159.92  
2015-06 834.75 1157.96  
2015-07 829.11 1156.44  
2015-08 828.30 1148.46  
2015-09 843.33 1152.74  
2015-10 850.92 1153.48  
2015-11 870.62 1157.37  
2015-12 872.13 1138.14 128.83
2016-01 870.80 1136.66  
2016-02 878.39 1168.95  
2016-03 881.22 1166.88  
2016-04 883.38 1170.18  
2016-05 877.63 1166.49  
2016-06 886.21 1152.56  
2016-07 882.23 1143.34  
2016-08 875.86 1144.57  
2016-09 873.33 1137.96  
2016-10 860.59 1106.46  
2016-11 872.36 1118.72  
2016-12 880.52 1093.10 150.26
2017-01 872.41 1100.82  
2017-02 874.81 1087.40  
2017-03 876.28 1099.31  
2017-04 890.61 1084.04  
2017-05 900.71 1090.75  
2017-06 925.29 1079.11  
2017-07 927.64 1074.74  
2017-08 929.93 1070.43  
2017-09 938.32 1074.83  
2017-10 939.37 1072.55  
2017-11 954.15 1087.15  
2017-12 955.13 1060.94 181.28
2018-01 964.59 1081.33  
2018-02 980.27 1068.50  
2018-03 979.36 1071.75  
2018-04 1005.52 1063.23  
2018-05 1024.10 1064.66  
2018-06 1041.57 1062.21  
2018-07 1060.69 1069.84  
2018-08 1067.68 1065.68  
2018-09 1088.25 1062.24  
2018-10 1119.07 1065.40  
2018-11 1128.56 1055.86  
2018-12 1136.80 1041.71 222.19
2019-01 1162.19 1058.01  
2019-02 1174.72 1064.52  
2019-03 1182.33 1062.91  
2019-04 1182.87 1062.22  
2019-05 1188.76 1058.69  
2019-06 1191.53 1082.89  
2019-07 1189.96 1076.52  
2019-08 1165.19 1093.26  
2019-09 1180.20 1094.35  
2019-10 1181.55 1099.07  
2019-11 1194.60 1119.27  
2019-12 1193.29 1119.77 272.56
2020-01 1184.75 1141.11  
2020-02 1185.61 1176.73  
2020-03 1196.38 1222.36  
2020-04 1188.74 1252.31  
2020-05 1188.82 1287.47  
2020-06 1184.96 1311.63  
2020-07 1189.55 1301.53  
2020-08 1202.42 1326.97  
2020-09 1199.28 1331.16  
2020-10 1191.92 1319.56  
2020-11 1193.08 1324.77  
2020-12 1193.11 1328.56 340.12
2021-01 1188.75 1336.09  
2021-02 1185.43 1345.10  
2021-03 1206.76 1346.75  
2021-04 1211.51 1350.82  
2021-05 1247.21 1375.89  
2021-06 1258.10 1384.40  
2021-07 1261.41 1385.09  
2021-08 1286.64 1399.75  
2021-09 1299.34 1399.90  
2021-10 1299.44 1398.35  
2021-11 1327.22 1406.23  
2021-12 1341.15 1393.43 492.47
2022-01 1352.85 1389.58  
2022-02 1377.26 1387.28  
2022-03 1390.45 1362.55  
2022-04 1422.96 1369.26  
2022-05 1426.04 1352.34  
2022-06 1414.46 1336.76  
2022-07 1418.83 1307.28  
2022-08 1425.35 1302.31  
2022-09 1430.50 1294.93  
2022-10 1424.30 1286.05  
2022-11 1420.92 1272.61  
2022-12 1413.24 1270.46 658.23
2023-01 1405.88 1288.90  
2023-02 1400.89 1279.37  
2023-03 1398.71 1259.20  
2023-04 1399.85 1249.24  
2023-05 1394.48 1236.68  
2023-06 1393.94 1227.06 751.13
2023-07 1399.91 1220.90  
2023-08 1397.95 1223.39  
2023-09 1408.04 1217.55  
2023-10 1404.43 1195.49  
2023-11 1400.42 1198.95  
2023-12 1397.26 1195.98  

Note: Direct Lending assets under management (AUM) includes direct lending funds AUM and BDC AUM. For direct lending AUM, the data is as of June 2023.

Source: Pitchbook LCD, Mergent’s FISD, Thomson Reuters LPC, Preqin, S&P Capital IQ.

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Figure 3. Leveraged Buyouts

Left Panel: Private Equity and Direct Lending Buyout Activity
Billions of USD

Date PE Invested Capital DL Invested Capital
2008-12 325.20 24.04
2009-12 392.90 31.33
2010-12 466.20 38.66
2011-12 482.70 47.66
2012-12 542.40 59.60
2013-12 560.30 73.18
2014-12 551.30 89.61
2015-12 542.50 101.03
2016-12 575.50 119.16
2017-12 616.70 134.48
2018-12 669.20 166.69
2019-12 832.60 221.66
2020-12 1030.90 261.92
2021-12 1327.60 388.17
2022-12 1523.20 556.13
2023-06 1699.80 614.03

Right Panel: Share of Middle-market LBO Loan Issuance
Percent

Year Direct Lending Syndicated Debt
2014 36 64
2015 51 49
2016 56 44
2017 49 51
2018 63 37
2019 58 42
2020 66 34
2021 75 25
2022 80 20
2023 84 16

Note: Invested capital figures are as of June 2023. Only the capital invested by funds with a focus on buyout strategy in North America is included. Direct lending figure includes invested capital by direct lending funds and BDC assets under management. Middle market is defined as total loans under $500 million and issuer revenues less than $500 million.

Source: Preqin, Bain Annual PE Report, S&P Capital IQ.

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Figure 4. Annual Total Returns

Percent

Year Direct Lending Leveraged Loans
2012 14.03 9.66
2013 12.68 5.29
2014 9.57 1.60
2015 5.54 -0.69
2016 11.24 10.16
2017 8.63 4.12
2018 8.07 0.44
2019 9.00 8.64
2020 5.46 3.12
2021 12.79 5.20
2022 6.30 -0.77

Source: Bloomberg, Pitchbook LCD.

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Figure 5. Average Annual Credit Losses (2005-2023)

Bps

Asset class Bps
High-yield Bonds 149
Direct Loans 141
Leveraged Loans 94

Note: Loss given default reported for high-yield and leveraged loans; realized losses from BDC balance sheets reported for direct loans.

Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg.

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Figure 6. Monetary Policy Stance and Credit Index Returns

Percent

Index Tightening monetary policy Easing monetary policy
Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) Return 2.22 2.33
Leveraged Loan Index (LLI) Return 1.14 1.36
BofA High Yield Index Return -1.26 2.48
Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index Return -0.23 1.24

Note: The chart reports mean quarterly returns for each index during periods of tightening and easing monetary policy. The sample period is 2004Q4-2023Q2.

Source: Bloomberg, ICE Fixed Income Indices, Pitchbook LCD.

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Figure 7. Direct Lending Fundraising

Billions of USD

Year Volume
2012 5650.50
2013 15679.07
2014 15325.40
2015 16769.55
2016 34024.50
2017 39834.37
2018 35505.13
2019 46880.67
2020 39127.94
2021 93381.40
2022 77432.03
2023 70436.90

Note: The primary region focus is North America.

Source: Preqin.

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Figure 8. Strategies of Newly Incepted Funds

Percent of Funds

Strategy Policy tightening: N Policy tightening: Y
Credit Opportunities 23.08 20.41
Direct Lending 33.93 40.16
Distressed Credit 15.85 11.98
General Private Credit 14.83 13.67
Mezzanine 10.56 12.01
Other 1.74 1.77

Note: Key identifies in order from left to right.

Source: SEC Form PF, staff calculations.

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Figure 9. Estimated Dry Powder by Investor Type

$ Billion

Date Pensions Sovereign Wealth Funds Insurance Private Funds Other
12/31/2012 19.71 4.18 5.01 10.63 27.13
12/31/2013 21.74 4.84 6.42 19.65 29.14
12/31/2014 18.95 5.99 6.39 10.09 23.75
12/31/2015 21.92 5.68 7.34 13.12 27.41
12/31/2016 40.84 7.09 13.03 15.12 40.39
12/31/2017 43.06 9.28 12.28 16.07 45.31
12/31/2018 49.48 11.39 15.97 22.28 56.27
12/31/2019 51.00 12.51 17.13 27.72 61.84
12/31/2020 72.09 15.89 22.88 29.05 79.73
12/31/2021 74.59 24.52 24.54 33.32 86.95
12/31/2022 73.07 23.30 21.84 31.60 85.09

Note: Other includes individuals, endowments, funds of funds, the manager’s stake, and other types of investors. Key identifies in order from bottom to top.

Source: SEC Form PF, staff calculations.

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Last Update: August 02, 2024