Accessible Version
Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Ensemble ULI estimate and core PCE inflation, 2005:Q1-2024:Q4
Notes: The black line in this figure graphs the evolution of the ensemble (equal-weighted) average of the seven different individual ULI estimates. The red colored polygon denotes an approximated 70 percent confidence interval around this estimate. The dashed blue line is the four-quarter percent change in the core PCE price index. The black circles denote the point estimates from each of the models in the final quarter (2024:Q4). See text for details.
Notes: The black line in this figure graphs the evolution of the ensemble (equal-weighted) average of the seven different individual ULI estimates. The red colored polygon denotes the 70 percent confidence interval around this estimate. The blue line is the four-quarter percent change in the core PCE price index. See text for details.
Figure 2. Pandemic-era ULI estimates, 2019:Q1-2024:Q4
Notes: The black line is the equally-weighted average of the individual ULI estimates. The red shaded area denotes an approximated 70 percent confidence interval around this estimate. The black circles denote the individual ULI estimates in the final quarter of the sample, 2024:Q4. See text for details.
Notes: The black line is the equally-weighted average of the individual ULI estimates. The red shaded area denotes an approximated 70 percent confidence interval around this estimate. The black circles denote the individual ULI estimates in the final quarter of the sample, 2024:Q4. See text for details.
Figure 3. Uncertainty about ULI moved higher in the pandemic era
Notes: This figure presents a box-and-whisker plot of the model ULI estimates from 2019:Q4 through 2024:Q4. The orange box covers the interquartile range, the dashed lines that extend out of the orange boxes denote the minimum and maximum of the seven ULI estimates, and the horizontal brown line within the orange box denotes the median of these seven estimates. See text for details.
Notes: This figure presents a box-and-whisker plot of the model ULI estimates from 2019:Q1 through 2024:Q4. The colored box covers the interquartile range, the dashed lines that extend out of the colored boxes denote the minimum and maximum of the seven ULI estimates. See text for details.