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Using Generative AI Models to Understand FOMC Monetary Policy Discussions, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Average F1-scores by Model Release Date

A scatter plot showing the average F1 scores across all categories for various language models, plotted against their release dates. The top-performing models cluster around 0.92-0.95 average F1 scores, with newer releases generally outperforming older ones. However, some older models also perform well, demonstrating the importance of model architecture and training beyond just size. The scattered nature of the data points indicates varying performance across different categories for each model.

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Figure 2. Percent of FOMC Meeting Minutes Sentences by Topic Category, 2010-2024

Panel A. Financial Developments, Financial Stability

"A dual-line graph showing the percentage of FOMC meeting discussions devoted to financial developments (red line) and financial stability (turquoise line) from 2010 to 2024. Financial developments consistently commanded more attention, typically 20-35% of discussion, while financial stability generally received 5-10% attention except during crisis periods. The March 2020 COVID-19 onset marked a significant shift in attention to both topics, with financial stability gaining more prominence afterward."

Panel B. Labor Market, Real Activity

"A dual-line graph showing the percentage of FOMC meeting discussions devoted to real activity (turquoise line) and labor market (red line) from 2010 to 2024. Real activity initially dominated discussions at 25-30% but declined after 2020, while labor market discussions remained more stable at 10-15% throughout the period. The two topics show more similar levels of coverage in recent years. A vertical marker indicates the significant shift during the March 2020 COVID-19 onset."

Panel C. Inflation

"A line graph tracking the percentage of FOMC meeting discussions devoted to inflation from 2010 to 2024. The red line shows significant variation over time, starting at moderate levels around 10%, experiencing occasional spikes, dropping sharply during COVID-19, and then rising to sustained higher levels in recent years. The trend suggests increasing focus on inflation in FOMC discussions over the past decade."

Panel D. Balance Sheet, Fed Funds Rate

"A dual-line graph showing the percentage of FOMC meeting discussions devoted to balance sheet (red line) and federal funds rate (turquoise line) from 2010 to 2024. Both topics show significant volatility, with balance sheet discussions showing larger swings and the fed funds rate maintaining more consistent levels after 2015. The March 2020 COVID-19 onset is marked by a vertical line, after which both topics show distinct pattern changes."

Meeting Date Financial Developments % Financial Stability % Labor Market % Real Activity % Inflation % Balance Sheet % Fed Funds %
1/27/2010 0.184738956 0.072289157 0.116465863 0.305220884 0.116465863 0.100401606 0.068273092
3/16/2010 0.349753695 0.049261084 0.088669951 0.285714286 0.098522167 0.068965517 0.019704433
4/28/2010 0.251028807 0.049382716 0.102880658 0.296296296 0.115226337 0.148148148 0.020576132
6/23/2010 0.270916335 0.06374502 0.111553785 0.302788845 0.143426295 0.075697211 0.007968127
8/10/2010 0.333333333 0.039215686 0.107843137 0.382352941 0.088235294 0.034313725 0.009803922
9/21/2010 0.284313725 0.044117647 0.102941176 0.333333333 0.107843137 0.049019608 0.049019608
11/3/2010 0.24789916 0.037815126 0.12605042 0.340336134 0.147058824 0.071428571 0.004201681
12/14/2010 0.315068493 0.105022831 0.077625571 0.347031963 0.109589041 0.03652968 0.00913242
1/26/2011 0.22310757 0.067729084 0.12749004 0.35059761 0.151394422 0.059760956 0.011952191
3/15/2011 0.32195122 0.009756098 0.107317073 0.326829268 0.16097561 0.048780488 0.019512195
4/27/2011 0.191836735 0.053061224 0.093877551 0.265306122 0.146938776 0.12244898 0.081632653
6/22/2011 0.261261261 0.063063063 0.09009009 0.256756757 0.144144144 0.040540541 0.045045045
8/9/2011 0.256684492 0.053475936 0.112299465 0.406417112 0.122994652 0.016042781 0.016042781
9/21/2011 0.263157895 0.08097166 0.089068826 0.315789474 0.109311741 0.052631579 0.04048583
11/2/2011 0.255411255 0.0995671 0.108225108 0.294372294 0.134199134 0.017316017 0.051948052
12/13/2011 0.341836735 0.06122449 0.096938776 0.239795918 0.12755102 0.015306122 0.056122449
1/25/2012 0.279661017 0.050847458 0.122881356 0.288135593 0.088983051 0.016949153 0.046610169
3/13/2012 0.263736264 0.065934066 0.137362637 0.318681319 0.137362637 0.005494505 0.005494505
4/25/2012 0.237373737 0.085858586 0.136363636 0.313131313 0.126262626 0.01010101 0.070707071
6/20/2012 0.267942584 0.057416268 0.129186603 0.325358852 0.129186603 0.009569378 0.009569378
8/1/2012 0.232673267 0.059405941 0.064356436 0.331683168 0.113861386 0.064356436 0.074257426
9/13/2012 0.229787234 0.055319149 0.119148936 0.327659574 0.093617021 0.089361702 0.068085106
10/24/2012 0.272727273 0.018181818 0.109090909 0.304545455 0.136363636 0.031818182 0.077272727
12/12/2012 0.263829787 0.076595745 0.136170213 0.268085106 0.085106383 0.080851064 0.05106383
1/30/2013 0.241025641 0.041025641 0.117948718 0.353846154 0.092307692 0.087179487 0.046153846
3/20/2013 0.1875 0.125 0.104166667 0.308333333 0.083333333 0.145833333 0.029166667
5/1/2013 0.252688172 0.064516129 0.102150538 0.301075269 0.107526882 0.107526882 0.02688172
6/19/2013 0.1875 0.066666667 0.129166667 0.325 0.116666667 0.1125 0.0375
7/31/2013 0.310526316 0.015789474 0.073684211 0.336842105 0.094736842 0.042105263 0.089473684
9/18/2013 0.246696035 0.061674009 0.136563877 0.295154185 0.079295154 0.083700441 0.066079295
10/30/2013 0.222222222 0.084656085 0.126984127 0.248677249 0.079365079 0.105820106 0.111111111
12/18/2013 0.259541985 0.064885496 0.141221374 0.232824427 0.125954198 0.08778626 0.076335878
1/29/2014 0.246073298 0.047120419 0.136125654 0.282722513 0.094240838 0.141361257 0.047120419
3/19/2014 0.232673267 0.024752475 0.138613861 0.321782178 0.118811881 0.034653465 0.103960396
4/30/2014 0.228723404 0.079787234 0.10106383 0.281914894 0.122340426 0.026595745 0.063829787
6/18/2014 0.1875 0.054166667 0.1375 0.2875 0.1125 0.095833333 0.058333333
7/30/2014 0.20952381 0.061904762 0.161904762 0.29047619 0.128571429 0.042857143 0.09047619
9/17/2014 0.175824176 0.036630037 0.139194139 0.249084249 0.113553114 0.058608059 0.157509158
10/29/2014 0.351694915 0.084745763 0.072033898 0.233050847 0.127118644 0.012711864 0.050847458
12/17/2014 0.208530806 0.014218009 0.113744076 0.308056872 0.161137441 0.009478673 0.151658768
1/28/2015 0.192982456 0.063157895 0.094736842 0.231578947 0.161403509 0.066666667 0.10877193
3/18/2015 0.217573222 0.016736402 0.133891213 0.230125523 0.129707113 0.071129707 0.112970711
4/29/2015 0.232142857 0.080357143 0.111607143 0.290178571 0.138392857 0.013392857 0.102678571
6/17/2015 0.234513274 0.026548673 0.168141593 0.296460177 0.137168142 0.008849558 0.097345133
7/29/2015 0.232 0.044 0.104 0.272 0.132 0.064 0.096
9/17/2015 0.238297872 0.012765957 0.14893617 0.285106383 0.191489362 0.046808511 0.068085106
10/28/2015 0.181034483 0.073275862 0.125 0.271551724 0.146551724 0.017241379 0.120689655
12/16/2015 0.194570136 0.049773756 0.153846154 0.280542986 0.190045249 0.009049774 0.099547511
1/27/2016 0.25095057 0.045627376 0.098859316 0.311787072 0.136882129 0.038022814 0.064638783
3/16/2016 0.232067511 0.037974684 0.126582278 0.341772152 0.147679325 0.008438819 0.097046414
4/27/2016 0.220149254 0.115671642 0.111940299 0.298507463 0.119402985 0 0.089552239
6/15/2016 0.22745098 0.062745098 0.184313725 0.28627451 0.137254902 0 0.094117647
7/27/2016 0.323333333 0.083333333 0.126666667 0.246666667 0.123333333 0.01 0.056666667
9/21/2016 0.307692308 0.064615385 0.132307692 0.227692308 0.092307692 0 0.058461538
11/2/2016 0.212686567 0.123134328 0.123134328 0.197761194 0.126865672 0.063432836 0.115671642
12/14/2016 0.247191011 0.02247191 0.157303371 0.232209738 0.157303371 0.011235955 0.097378277
2/1/2017 0.212 0.056 0.116 0.312 0.156 0.012 0.092
3/15/2017 0.235074627 0.007462687 0.141791045 0.25 0.160447761 0.085820896 0.097014925
5/3/2017 0.227091633 0.047808765 0.12749004 0.294820717 0.155378486 0.067729084 0.071713147
6/14/2017 0.1875 0.055147059 0.121323529 0.198529412 0.172794118 0.106617647 0.084558824
7/26/2017 0.246031746 0.091269841 0.134920635 0.257936508 0.182539683 0.027777778 0.043650794
9/20/2017 0.226923077 0.026923077 0.15 0.265384615 0.203846154 0.019230769 0.057692308
11/1/2017 0.228813559 0.050847458 0.152542373 0.228813559 0.203389831 0.025423729 0.093220339
12/13/2017 0.20657277 0.051643192 0.150234742 0.272300469 0.197183099 0.009389671 0.079812207
1/31/2018 0.183673469 0.065306122 0.134693878 0.232653061 0.281632653 0.012244898 0.081632653
3/21/2018 0.21719457 0.036199095 0.126696833 0.285067873 0.180995475 0.009049774 0.108597285
5/2/2018 0.220532319 0.064638783 0.136882129 0.243346008 0.174904943 0.022813688 0.117870722
6/13/2018 0.213636364 0.036363636 0.163636364 0.277272727 0.177272727 0.036363636 0.072727273
8/1/2018 0.225165563 0.056291391 0.102649007 0.268211921 0.11589404 0.059602649 0.135761589
9/26/2018 0.266666667 0.057142857 0.114285714 0.29047619 0.138095238 0.014285714 0.095238095
11/8/2018 0.206642066 0.077490775 0.114391144 0.217712177 0.118081181 0.073800738 0.077490775
12/19/2018 0.237037037 0.040740741 0.103703704 0.240740741 0.118518519 0.107407407 0.133333333
1/30/2019 0.222910217 0.080495356 0.07120743 0.232198142 0.114551084 0.139318885 0.095975232
3/20/2019 0.205787781 0.01607717 0.106109325 0.24437299 0.125401929 0.189710611 0.080385852
5/1/2019 0.176870748 0.095238095 0.091836735 0.24829932 0.095238095 0.142857143 0.085034014
6/19/2019 0.218867925 0.045283019 0.098113208 0.264150943 0.169811321 0.018867925 0.139622642
7/31/2019 0.204081633 0.081632653 0.102040816 0.244897959 0.16909621 0.064139942 0.096209913
9/18/2019 0.211956522 0.038043478 0.089673913 0.25 0.179347826 0.027173913 0.171195652
10/30/2019 0.185915493 0.084507042 0.084507042 0.230985915 0.101408451 0.087323944 0.16056338
12/11/2019 0.194805195 0.042207792 0.12987013 0.233766234 0.142857143 0.035714286 0.045454545
1/29/2020 0.14527027 0.158783784 0.108108108 0.239864865 0.185810811 0.067567568 0.054054054
3/15/2020 0.233676976 0.175257732 0.068728522 0.295532646 0.065292096 0.051546392 0.072164948
4/29/2020 0.241935484 0.183870968 0.070967742 0.3 0.080645161 0.032258065 0.061290323
6/10/2020 0.288135593 0.096045198 0.081920904 0.262711864 0.107344633 0.079096045 0.079096045
7/29/2020 0.295681063 0.122923588 0.086378738 0.252491694 0.099667774 0.03986711 0.07641196
9/16/2020 0.239130435 0.112318841 0.101449275 0.289855072 0.115942029 0.025362319 0.079710145
11/5/2020 0.248427673 0.106918239 0.08490566 0.235849057 0.081761006 0.147798742 0.047169811
12/16/2020 0.233576642 0.094890511 0.135036496 0.306569343 0.124087591 0.051094891 0.040145985
1/27/2021 0.266666667 0.101754386 0.112280702 0.287719298 0.098245614 0.035087719 0.052631579
3/17/2021 0.29787234 0.039007092 0.134751773 0.287234043 0.124113475 0.039007092 0.063829787
4/28/2021 0.304511278 0.139097744 0.105263158 0.214285714 0.109022556 0.063909774 0.033834586
6/16/2021 0.295819936 0.054662379 0.112540193 0.21221865 0.180064309 0.054662379 0.080385852
7/28/2021 0.267692308 0.092307692 0.123076923 0.172307692 0.132307692 0.16 0.033846154
9/22/2021 0.20754717 0.064150943 0.173584906 0.226415094 0.154716981 0.083018868 0.067924528
11/3/2021 0.250996016 0.111553785 0.123505976 0.215139442 0.175298805 0.055776892 0.051792829
12/15/2021 0.226415094 0.044025157 0.132075472 0.191823899 0.144654088 0.116352201 0.113207547
1/26/2022 0.225092251 0.081180812 0.125461255 0.180811808 0.136531365 0.136531365 0.095940959
3/16/2022 0.253571429 0.078571429 0.089285714 0.164285714 0.182142857 0.146428571 0.071428571
5/4/2022 0.325203252 0.077235772 0.093495935 0.18699187 0.150406504 0.06504065 0.069105691
6/15/2022 0.288461538 0.034615385 0.119230769 0.215384615 0.2 0.030769231 0.092307692
7/27/2022 0.28057554 0.079136691 0.104316547 0.179856115 0.248201439 0.032374101 0.061151079
9/21/2022 0.276264591 0.031128405 0.120622568 0.210116732 0.225680934 0.035019455 0.085603113
11/2/2022 0.346007605 0.087452471 0.079847909 0.163498099 0.19391635 0.007604563 0.102661597
12/14/2022 0.293877551 0.044897959 0.118367347 0.204081633 0.220408163 0.020408163 0.081632653
2/1/2023 0.337349398 0.084337349 0.108433735 0.180722892 0.212851406 0.012048193 0.048192771
3/22/2023 0.253378378 0.111486486 0.125 0.175675676 0.219594595 0.006756757 0.087837838
5/3/2023 0.255892256 0.198653199 0.097643098 0.168350168 0.171717172 0.006734007 0.060606061
6/14/2023 0.248962656 0.045643154 0.145228216 0.211618257 0.203319502 0.01659751 0.099585062
7/26/2023 0.28 0.106666667 0.097777778 0.235555556 0.186666667 0.013333333 0.066666667
9/20/2023 0.325358852 0.009569378 0.124401914 0.162679426 0.205741627 0.014354067 0.076555024
11/1/2023 0.305785124 0.107438017 0.099173554 0.165289256 0.165289256 0.045454545 0.045454545
12/13/2023 0.259090909 0.018181818 0.15 0.218181818 0.222727273 0.022727273 0.081818182
1/31/2024 0.310344828 0.086206897 0.099137931 0.159482759 0.206896552 0.047413793 0.073275862
3/20/2024 0.270588235 0.031372549 0.109803922 0.2 0.17254902 0.117647059 0.08627451
5/1/2024 0.239316239 0.14957265 0.094017094 0.196581197 0.192307692 0.05982906 0.055555556
6/12/2024 0.25462963 0.060185185 0.171296296 0.162037037 0.217592593 0.027777778 0.074074074

Note: Vertical dashed lines refer to the date of the unscheduled FOMC meeting held on March 15, 2020, near the onset of the global pandemic recession.

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Last Update: December 06, 2024