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Photo of Travis J. Berge

Travis J. Berge

Chief Current Macroeconomic Conditions Section Research and Statistics
202.452.7843
[email protected]

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, University of California - Davis, 2011
  • M.A., Economics, University of California Davis, 2007
  • B.A., Economics, University of Colorado Boulder, 2004
  • Principal Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2017 - present
  • Senior Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2015 - 2017
  • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2014 - 2015
  • Economist

    Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

    2011 - 2014
  • The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates
    Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, and Andrea Stella
    Journal of Applied Econometrics (2024)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3062
  • Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate
    Travis J. Berge
    Review of Economics and Statistics (2023)
    https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01102
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2021)
  • When Is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
    Travis Berge, Maarten De Ridder, and Damjan Pfajfar
    European Economic Review (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103852
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2020)
  • Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
    Travis J. Berge
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.012r1
  • Corrigendum to "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts"
    Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang, and Nitish R. Sinha
    International Journal of Forecasting (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.006
  • Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
    Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, Han Chen, and Andrea Stella
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.102
  • Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
    Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang, and Nitish R. Sinha
    International Journal of Forecasting (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.026
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2019)
  • Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
    Travis J. Berge and Damjan Pfajfar
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.020
  • Understanding Survey-Based Inflation Expectations
    Travis J. Berge
    International Journal of Forecasting (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.003
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2017)
  • Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
    Travis Berge, Nitish Sinha, and Michael Smolyansky
    FEDS Notes (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1805
  • Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
    Travis J. Berge
    Journal of Forecasting (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2345
  • Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates
    Travis J. Berge
    Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2350
  • Global Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy: Is Unconventional Policy Different?
    Travis J. Berge and Guangye Cao
    Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2014)
  • A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011
    Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
    SERIEs (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6
  • Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?
    Travis J. Berge
    Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2012)
  • Currency Carry Trades
    Travis Berge, Oscar Jorda, and Alan M. Taylor
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 (2011)
  • Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2011)
    https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.2.246
Referee
  • Canadian Journal of Economics
  • Empirical Economics
  • International Journal of Central Banking
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics
  • Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
  • Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
  • Journal of Empirical Finance
  • Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of International Economics
  • Journal of Macroeconomics
  • Journal of Money, Credit & Banking
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
  • Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Professional Affiliation
  • American Economic Association
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Last Update: October 15, 2024