Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Research and Statistics

The Division of Research and Statistics is responsible for developing and presenting economic and financial data and analysis for the use of the Board, the Federal Open Market Committee, and other Federal Reserve System officials. This information serves as background for the formulation and conduct of monetary, regulatory, and supervisory policies. In addition, the division fosters a broader understanding of issues relating to economic policy by providing leadership in economic and statistical research and by supplying data and analyses for public release.

Current Macroeconomic Conditions

Current Macroeconomic Conditions (CMC) develops and maintains a suite of modern and innovative forecasting models that can be used to conduct real-time inference about current and future U.S. macroeconomic conditions along dimensions that are particularly relevant for monetary policy. In particular, the section aims to conduct timely and reliable inference about the cyclical state of the U.S. economy by jointly modelling actual and potential output. The section uses multiple models and explores ways to optimally combine those models in order to reflect model uncertainty. The models allow researchers and analysts to incorporate, in real time, the most recent data releases. In addition, the section explores the usefulness of innovative sources of information, and it addresses the statistical, modelling, and reporting issues that arise when using these new data sources in a policy-oriented macroeconomic forecasting environment. The section has a strong research focus and aims to maximize the external visibility of its work--both within the Federal Reserve System and in the global research community--by encouraging and motivating CMC staff to actively pursue research projects in areas related to the section's remit.