Chart 1: Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2008 through 2010. Actual data for years 2003 through 2007. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.
Real GDP Growth
Percent
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Actual |
3.7 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
- |
- |
- |
| Upper End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.5 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.2 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.3 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
| Lower End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Actual |
5.8 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
- |
- |
- |
| Upper End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
6.0 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
5.7 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
5.5 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
| Lower End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
5.3 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
PCE Inflation
Percent
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Actual |
1.9 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
3.4 |
- |
- |
- |
| Upper End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
| Lower End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
2.8 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
Core PCE Inflation
Percent
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Actual |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
- |
- |
- |
| Upper End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
| Lower End of Range |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
Chart 2(a): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)
Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.
Real GDP Projections
Number of Participants
| Projections |
0.0-0.1 |
0.2-0.3 |
0.4-0.5 |
0.6-0.7 |
0.8-0.9 |
1.0-1.1 |
1.2-1.3 |
1.4-1.5 |
1.6-1.7 |
1.8-1.9 |
2.0-2.1 |
2.2-2.3 |
2.4-2.5 |
2.6-2.7 |
2.8-2.9 |
3.0-3.1 |
3.2-3.3 |
3.4-3.5 |
| 2008 |
| April |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2009 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| 2010 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
Unemployment Rate Projections
Number of Participants
| Projections |
4.7-4.8 |
4.9-5.0 |
5.1-5.2 |
5.3-5.4 |
5.5-5.6 |
5.7-5.8 |
5.9-6.0 |
6.1-6.2 |
6.3-6.4 |
| 2008 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
0 |
1 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2009 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| January |
0 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 |
| April |
1 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
3 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Chart 2(b): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)
Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.
PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
| Projections |
1.5-1.6 |
1.7-1.8 |
1.9-2.0 |
2.1-2.2 |
2.3-2.4 |
2.5-2.6 |
2.7-2.8 |
2.9-3.0 |
3.1-3.2 |
3.3-3.4 |
3.5-3.6 |
3.7-3.8 |
| 2008 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2009 |
| April |
0 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
0 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 |
| April |
1 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
3 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Core PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
| Projections |
1.3-1.4 |
1.5-1.6 |
1.7-1.8 |
1.9-2.0 |
2.1-2.2 |
2.3-2.4 |
2.5-2.6 |
| 2008 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
7 |
2 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
| 2009 |
| April |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
0 |
0 |
5 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 |
| April |
1 |
1 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| January |
1 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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