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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on June 24-25, 2008.



Chart 1: Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Actual data for years 2003 through 2007. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Growth
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.8 3.0 3.5
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.6 2.8 3.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 2.0 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.9 1.9 2.0

Unemployment Rate
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 5.8 6.1 5.8
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 5.7 5.8 5.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 5.5 5.3 5.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 5.5 5.2 5.0

PCE Inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.9 3.4 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.6 3.0 2.1
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.2 2.3 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.8 2.0 1.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - 3.4 1.7 1.6

Core PCE Inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.5 2.3 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.4 2.2 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.2 2.0 1.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.0 1.8 1.5


Chart 2(a): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 0.0-0.1 0.2-0.3 0.4-0.5 0.6-0.7 0.8-0.9 1.0-1.1 1.2-1.3 1.4-1.5 1.6-1.7 1.8-1.9 2.0-2.1 2.2-2.3 2.4-2.5 2.6-2.7 2.8-2.9 3.0-3.1 3.2-3.3 3.4-3.5
2008
   June 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
   April 1 3 2 1 5 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009
   June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 2 3 2 2 0 0
   April 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 3 3 1 3 0 0
2010
   June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 4 4 3 1 1
   April 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 2 5 2 1

Unemployment Rate Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3 5.4-5.5 5.6-5.7 5.8-5.9 6.0-6.1 6.2-6.3
2008
   June 0 0 0 6 9 2 0 0
   April 0 0 1 6 8 1 1 0
2009
   June 0 0 4 4 5 3 1 0
   April 0 0 7 3 4 2 0 1
2010
   June 0 7 1 4 4 1 0 0
   April 4 3 4 4 1 1 0 0

Chart 2(b): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.


PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 2.5-2.6 2.7-2.8 2.9-3.0 3.1-3.2 3.3-3.4 3.5-3.6 3.7-3.8 3.9-4.0 4.1-4.2 4.3-4.4 4.5-4.6
2008
   June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 7 1 1
   April 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 5 6 2 1 0 0 0 0
2009
   June 0 1 5 6 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
   April 0 3 7 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010
   June 1 5 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
   April 1 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Core PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.3-1.4 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 2.5-2.6
2008
   June 0 0 0 1 5 9 2
   April 0 0 0 1 7 7 2
2009
   June 0 0 1 6 8 2 0
   April 0 0 3 9 5 0 0
2010
   June 0 2 6 9 0 0 0
   April 1 1 10 5 0 0 0

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Last update: July 16, 2008