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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on January 27-28, 2009.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDP
Percent
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
Actual 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -0.2 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 0.2 4.5 5.5 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - -0.5 3.3 5.0 2.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - -1.3 2.5 3.8 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - -2.5 1.5 2.3 2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
Actual 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.2 9.2 8.0 5.5
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.8 8.3 7.5 5.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.5 8.0 6.7 4.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.0 7.0 5.5 4.5

PCE inflation
Percent
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
Actual 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.7 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - -0.5 0.7 0.2 1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.8
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.5 1.5
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.9 0.8 0.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.6 0.4 0.0


Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections
-2.6 - -2.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2.4 - -2.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2.2 - -2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2.0 - -1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.8 - -1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.6 - -1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.4 - -1.3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.2 - -1.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.0 - -0.9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
-0.8 - -0.7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
-0.6 - -0.5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.4 - -0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.2 - -0.1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
0.0 - 0.1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
0.2 - 0.3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
0.4 - 0.5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
0.6 - 0.7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0.8 - 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.0 - 1.1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
1.2 - 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.4 - 1.5 0 1 2 2 0 0 0
1.6 - 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
2.0 - 2.1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
2.2 - 2.3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
2.4 - 2.5 0 0 1 4 0 1 10
2.6 - 2.7 0 0 1 1 1 1 4
2.8 - 2.9 0 0 1 0 0 2 1
3.0 - 3.1 0 0 5 4 0 2 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 2 1 0 1 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 1 1 4 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 0 2 1 0
4.0 - 4.1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 1 1 2 0 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 2 8
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 1 1 1 3
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 3 2 2 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 1 0 1 1 3 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 4 2 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 3 1 2 2 1 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 4 0 2 3 1 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 5 1 1 3 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 2 0 0 1 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 2 1 4 1 1 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 5 0 1 0 0 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.0 - 9.1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0
9.2 - 9.3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-11 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections
-0.5 - -0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.3 - -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.1 - 0.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.1 - 0.2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
0.3 - 0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.7 - 0.8 4 0 1 0 2 1 0
0.9 - 1.0 3 1 4 0 2 0 0
1.1 - 1.2 1 2 4 1 1 1 0
1.3 - 1.4 0 3 1 3 1 3 0
1.5 - 1.6 1 2 3 6 5 7 3
1.7 - 1.8 0 5 3 5 3 5 2
1.9 - 2.0 0 1 0 2 0 0 11
2.1 - 2.2 0 3 0 0 1 0 0

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2009-11

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2009 2010 2011
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections
-0.1 - 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.3 - 0.4 0 0 1 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 1 0 0 0 1 0
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 4 0 2 1
0.9 - 1.0 11 0 3 0 2 0
1.1 - 1.2 2 0 2 1 1 2
1.3 - 1.4 1 2 2 5 3 3
1.5 - 1.6 1 4 3 6 4 7
1.7 - 1.8 0 4 1 4 2 4
1.9 - 2.0 0 6 0 1 0 0
2.1 - 2.2 0 1 0 0 0 0

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Last update: February 18, 2009