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Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2009 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 29, 2010; this information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.

                    Change in real GDP
Percent

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	2.7	2.4	2.5	-1.9	0.0	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	4.0	4.7	5.0	3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.5	4.5	4.5	2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.8	3.4	3.5	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.3	2.7	3.0	2.4

                    Unemployment rate
Percent

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	5.0	4.5	4.8	6.9	10.0	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	10.0	8.8	7.6	6.3
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	9.7	8.5	7.5	5.2
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	9.5	8.2	6.6	5.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	8.6	7.2	6.1	4.9

                    PCE inflation
Percent

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	3.3	1.9	3.6	1.7	1.3	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	2.4	2.0	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.7	2.0	2.0	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.4	1.1	1.3	1.7
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.2	1.0	0.8	1.5

                    Core PCE inflation
Percent

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Actual	2.3	2.3	2.5	2.0	1.5	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	2.4	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.7	1.9	1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.1	1.0	1.2
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	0.9	0.8

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants

Percent range	2010		2011		2012		Longer Run
	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
2.0 - 2.1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.2 - 2.3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.4 - 2.5	2	3	0	1	0	0	8	8
2.6 - 2.7	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	3
2.8 - 2.9	1	1	0	0	0	1	5	5
3.0 - 3.1	3	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
3.2 - 3.3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
3.4 - 3.5	7	4	1	1	3	3	0	0
3.6 - 3.7	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0
3.8 - 3.9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
4.0 - 4.1	1	1	2	3	3	2	0	0
4.2 - 4.3	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	0
4.4 - 4.5	0	0	6	7	5	4	0	0
4.6 - 4.7	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
4.8 - 4.9	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0
5.0 - 5.1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants

Percent range	2010		2011		2012		Longer Run
	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
4.8 - 4.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
5.0 - 5.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	11
5.2 - 5.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	4
5.4 - 5.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5.6 - 5.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5.8 - 5.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6.0 - 6.1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
6.2 - 6.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
6.4 - 6.5	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0
6.6 - 6.7	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
6.8 - 6.9	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0
7.0 - 7.1	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0
7.2 - 7.3	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	0
7.4 - 7.5	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0
7.6 - 7.7	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0
7.8 - 7.9	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8.0 - 8.1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8.2 - 8.3	0	0	6	6	0	0	0	0
8.4 - 8.5	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	0
8.6 - 8.7	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0
8.8 - 8.9	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9.0 - 9.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9.2 - 9.3	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
9.4 - 9.5	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	0
9.6 - 9.7	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
9.8 - 9.9	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
10.0 - 10.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10.2 - 10.3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants

Percent range	2010		2011		2012		Longer Run
	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
0.1 - 0.2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
0.3 - 0.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
0.5 - 0.6	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
0.7 - 0.8	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
0.9 - 1.0	0	0	1	3	1	2	0	0
1.1 - 1.2	2	3	4	1	0	1	0	0
1.3 - 1.4	7	7	2	2	2	2	0	0
1.5 - 1.6	2	4	3	4	6	5	3	3
1.7 - 1.8	4	1	3	1	2	1	2	2
1.9 - 2.0	2	2	3	4	5	4	12	12
2.1 - 2.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.3 - 2.4	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2010-12

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants

Percent range	2010		2011		2012
	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
0.1 - 0.2	0	0	0	0	0	1
0.3 - 0.4	0	0	0	0	0	0
0.5 - 0.6	0	0	0	1	0	0
0.7 - 0.8	0	0	0	0	1	0
0.9 - 1.0	1	4	5	6	1	3
1.1 - 1.2	9	7	2	1	5	2
1.3 - 1.4	3	2	3	1	1	1
1.5 - 1.6	0	2	3	5	3	4
1.7 - 1.8	2	0	0	0	2	3
1.9 - 2.0	2	2	3	2	4	2
2.1 - 2.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.3 - 2.4	0	0	1	1	0	1

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