Home > Monetary Policy > Monetary Policy Report to the Congress > Monetary Policy Report, February 29, 2012 - Part 1: Overview: Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook > Monetary Policy Report, February 29, 2012 - Part 4: Summary of Economic Projections

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible versions of figures in Part 4

Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 29, 2012, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2012 through 2014 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2007 through 2011.

Change in real GDP
Percent

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
Actual	2.2	(3.3)	(0.5)	3.1	1.6	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.0	3.8	4.3	3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.7	3.2	4.0	2.6
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.2	2.8	3.3	2.3
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.1	2.4	2.8	2.2

Unemployment rate
Percent

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
Actual	4.8	6.9	9.9	9.6	8.7	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	8.6	8.2	7.7	6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	8.5	8.1	7.6	6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	8.2	7.4	6.7	5.2
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	7.8	7.0	6.3	5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
Actual	3.5	1.7	1.5	1.3	2.5	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.5	2.3	2.1	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.0	2.0	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.4	1.4	1.6	2.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.3	1.4	1.5	2.0

Core PCE inflation
Percent

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
Actual	2.4	2.0	1.7	1.0	1.7	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	2.0	2.0	n.a.
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.0	2.0	n.a.
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.5	1.5	1.6	n.a.
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.3	1.4	1.4	n.a.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2011 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 27, 2012. This information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.

Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Number of Participants	3	3	5	4	2

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year.

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End (Percent)	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
0 - 0.37	14	11	6
0.38 - 0.62	1	1	2
0.63 - 0.87		2	1
0.88 - 1.12	2	1	2
1.13 - 1.37
1.38 - 1.62			1
1.63 - 1.87		1
1.88 - 2.12		1	1
2.13 - 2.37
2.38 - 2.62			3
2.63 - 2.87			1
2.88 - 3.12
3.13 - 3.37
3.38 - 3.62
3.63 - 3.87				1
3.88 - 4.12				7
4.13 - 4.37				3
4.38 - 4.62				6
4.63 - 4.87

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2012		2013		2014		Longer Run
Percent range	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
2 - 2.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.2 - 2.3	4	1	0	0	0	0	4	3
2.4 - 2.5	4	6	1	0	0	0	8	8
2.6 - 2.7	4	5	1	1	0	1	4	4
2.8 - 2.9	1	3	4	1	2	1	0	1
3 - 3.1	2	0	7	7	1	3	1	1
3.2 - 3.3	0	1	2	4	2	1	0	0
3.4 - 3.5	0	1	1	2	5	5	0	0
3.6 - 3.7	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
3.8 - 3.9	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0
4 - 4.1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0
4.2 - 4.3	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0
4.4 - 4.5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2012		2013		2014		Longer Run
Percent range	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
5 - 5.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
5.2 - 5.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7
5.4 - 5.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	3
5.6 - 5.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5.8 - 5.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6 - 6.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5
6.2 - 6.3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
6.4 - 6.5	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0
6.6 - 6.7	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0
6.8 - 6.9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
7 - 7.1	0	0	2	0	4	2	0	0
7.2 - 7.3	0	0	1	0	3	3	0	0
7.4 - 7.5	0	0	1	3	1	2	0	0
7.6 - 7.7	0	0	3	0	5	4	0	0
7.8 - 7.9	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	0
8 - 8.1	1	1	6	5	0	1	0	0
8.2 - 8.3	6	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
8.4 - 8.5	5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
8.6 - 8.7	3	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
8.8 - 8.9	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2012		2013		2014		Longer Run
Percent range	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
1.3 - 1.4	5	4	5	2	0	0	0	0
1.5 - 1.6	5	3	3	5	5	6	0	3
1.7 - 1.8	4	4	3	4	2	3	0	2
1.9 - 2	2	3	4	4	9	6	17	12
2.1 - 2.2	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
2.3 - 2.4	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0
2.5 - 2.6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2.7 - 2.8	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2012-14

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2012		2013		2014
Percent range	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections	January projections	November projections
1.3 - 1.4	1	2	3	4	1	3
1.5 - 1.6	10	6	7	5	5	4
1.7 - 1.8	3	4	1	3	3	4
1.9 - 2	3	3	6	4	8	5
2.1 - 2.2	0	2	0	1	0	1

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2012	2013	2014	Longer Run
Percent range	January projections	January projections	January projections	January projections
0 - 0.37	14	11	6	0
0.38 - 0.62	1	1	2	0
0.63 - 0.87	0	2	1	0
0.88 - 1.12	2	1	2	0
1.13 - 1.37	0	0	0	0
1.38 - 1.62	0	0	1	0
1.63 - 1.87	0	1	0	0
1.88 - 2.12	0	1	1	0
2.13 - 2.37	0	0	0	0
2.38 - 2.62	0	0	3	0
2.63 - 2.87	0	0	1	0
2.88 - 3.12	0	0	0	0
3.13 - 3.37	0	0	0	0
3.38 - 3.62	0	0	0	0
3.63 - 3.87	0	0	0	1
3.88 - 4.12	0	0	0	7
4.13 - 4.37	0	0	0	3
4.38 - 4.62	0	0	0	6
4.63 - 4.87	0	0	0	0

NOTE: The target funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or in the longer run.

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

	Lower	Broadly similar	Higher
January projections	0	1	16
November projections	0	1	16

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

	Lower	Broadly similar	Higher
January projections	0	3	14
November projections	0	3	14

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

	Lower	Broadly similar	Higher
January projections	1	6	10
November projections	1	4	12

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

	Lower	Broadly similar	Higher
January projections	1	7	9
November projections	1	5	11

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

	Weighted to downside	Broadly balanced	Weighted to upside
January projections	11	6	0
November projections	11	6	0

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

	Weighted to downside	Broadly balanced	Weighted to upside
January projections	1	5	11
November projections	0	6	11

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

	Weighted to downside	Broadly balanced	Weighted to upside
January projections	3	11	3
November projections	4	10	3

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

	Weighted to downside	Broadly balanced	Weighted to upside
January projections	3	11	3
November projections	4	10	3

NOTE: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.” Definitions of variables are in the general
note to table 1.

Last update: March 15, 2012

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Accessible versions of figures in Part 4

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP Percent

Unemployment rate Percent

PCE inflation Percent

Core PCE inflation Percent

Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2012-14

Number of Participants

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Uncertainty about GDP growth Number of participants

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate Number of participants

Uncertainty about PCE inflation Number of participants

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation Number of participants

Risks to GDP Growth Number of participants

Risks to Unemployment rate Number of participants

Risks to PCE inflation Number of participants

Risks to Core PCE inflation Number of participants

Change in real GDP
Percent

Unemployment rate
Percent

PCE inflation
Percent

Core PCE inflation
Percent

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants