- February 11, 2014: Summary
- Part 1
- Part 2
- Part 3
- Abbreviations
- Printable Versions (999 KB PDF)
Accessible versions of figures in Part 3
Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 11, 2014, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act
Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2013-16 and over the longer run
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2013 through 2016 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2008 through 2012.
Change in real GDP
Percent
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (2.8) | (0.2) | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 7.8 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
PCE inflation
Percent
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
Core PCE inflation
Percent
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | n.a. |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | n.a. |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | n.a. |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | n.a. |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy
Appropriate timing of policy firming
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of participants | 2 | 12 | 3 |
Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to ¼ percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In September 2013, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 3, 12, and 2.
Appropriate pace of policy firming
Number of participants with projected targets
| Target federal funds rate at year-end (Percent) |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 - 0.37 | 17 | 15 | 3 | ||
| 0.38 - 0.62 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 0.63 - 0.87 | 1 | 4 | |||
| 0.88 - 1.12 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1.13 - 1.37 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 1.38 - 1.62 | 1 | 2 | |||
| 1.63 - 1.87 | 4 | ||||
| 1.88 - 2.12 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 2.13 - 2.37 | |||||
| 2.38 -2.62 | 2 | ||||
| 2.63 - 2.87 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 2.88 - 3.12 | 1 | ||||
| 3.13 - 3.37 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3.38 - 3.62 | 4 | ||||
| 3.63 - 3.87 | 2 | ||||
| 3.88 - 4.12 | 1 | 9 | |||
| 4.13 - 4.37 | 1 | 2 |
Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest ¼ percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2013–16 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of Participants
| Percent range | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 1.8 - 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2.0 - 2.1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2.2 - 2.3 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 |
| 2.4 - 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 2.6 - 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.8 - 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.0 - 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.2 - 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.4 - 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.6 - 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2013-16 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of Participants
| Percent range | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.2 - 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 5.6 - 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.8 - 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 6.0 - 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6.2 - 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6.4 - 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6.6 - 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6.8 - 6.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.0 - 7.1 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.2 - 7.3 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2013-16 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of Participants
| Percent range | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 17 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2013-16
Histograms, four panels.
Number of Participants
| Percent range | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2013-16 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of Participants
| Percent range | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.00 - 0.37 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.38 - 0.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.63 - 0.87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.88 - 1.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.13 - 1.37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.38 - 1.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.63 - 1.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.88 - 2.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.13 - 2.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.38 - 2.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.63 - 2.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.88 - 3.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.13 - 3.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3.38 - 3.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 3.63 - 3.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 3.88 - 4.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| 4.13 - 4.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Note: The target federal funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or in the longer run.
Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections
Histograms, eight panels.
Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| September projections | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| September projections | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 2 | 13 | 2 |
| September projections | 2 | 11 | 4 |
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 2 | 13 | 2 |
| September projections | 2 | 11 | 4 |
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| September projections | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 16 | 1 |
| September projections | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| September projections | 5 | 11 | 1 |
Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| September projections | 5 | 11 | 1 |
Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
