- February 10, 2016: Summary
- Part 1
- Part 2
- Part 3
- Abbreviations
- Printable Version (1.2 MB PDF)
Accessible versions of figures in Part 3
Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 10, 2016, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2015-18 and over the longer run
Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for years 2015 through 2018 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2010 through 2014.
Change in real GDP
Percent
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 9.5 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.7 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
PCE inflation
Percent
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Core PCE inflation
Percent
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | n.a. |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | n.a. |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | n.a. |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | n.a. |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | n.a. |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level
| Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent) |
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | 2 | ||||
| 0.250 | |||||
| 0.375 | 15 | ||||
| 0.500 | |||||
| 0.625 | |||||
| 0.750 | |||||
| 0.875 | 4 | ||||
| 1.000 | |||||
| 1.125 | 3 | ||||
| 1.250 | |||||
| 1.375 | 7 | ||||
| 1.500 | |||||
| 1.625 | 2 | ||||
| 1.750 | |||||
| 1.875 | 5 | ||||
| 2.000 | |||||
| 2.125 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2.250 | |||||
| 2.375 | 4 | ||||
| 2.500 | 1 | ||||
| 2.625 | 2 | ||||
| 2.750 | |||||
| 2.875 | 4 | ||||
| 3.000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 3.125 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3.250 | 1 | 6 | |||
| 3.375 | 1 | 3 | |||
| 3.500 | 2 | 6 | |||
| 3.625 | 2 | ||||
| 3.750 | 2 | ||||
| 3.875 | 1 | ||||
| 4.000 | 1 |
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2015-18 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent range | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 1.6 - 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.8 - 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 2.0 - 2.1 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 2.2 - 2.3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 2.4 - 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.6 - 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2.8 - 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2015-18 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent range | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 4.2 - 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.4 - 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.6 - 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 4.8 - 4.9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 5.2 - 5.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.6 - 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.8 - 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2015-18 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent range | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.3 - 0.4 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.5 - 0.6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2015-18
Histograms, four panels.
Number of participants
| Percent range | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 14 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2015-18 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent range | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
December projections |
September projections |
|
| -0.37 - -0.13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.12 - 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.13 - 0.37 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.38 - 0.62 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.63 - 0.87 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.88 - 1.12 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.13 - 1.37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.38 - 1.62 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.63 - 1.87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.88 - 2.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.13 - 2.37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.38 - 2.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.63 - 2.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.88 - 3.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3.13 - 3.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 3.38 - 3.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 3.63 - 3.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 3.88 - 4.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Note: The midpoints of the target ranges for the federal funds rate and the target levels for the federal funds rate are measured at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections
Histograms, eight panels.
Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 15 | 2 |
| September projections | 0 | 15 | 2 |
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 16 | 1 |
| September projections | 0 | 16 | 1 |
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 15 | 2 |
| September projections | 0 | 14 | 3 |
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 0 | 15 | 2 |
| September projections | 0 | 14 | 3 |
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| September projections | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 2 | 13 | 2 |
| September projections | 1 | 10 | 6 |
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| September projections | 9 | 7 | 1 |
Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to downside | Broadly balanced | Weighted to upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| December projections | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| September projections | 9 | 7 | 1 |
Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
