- June 21, 2016: Summary
- Part 1
- Part 2
- Part 3
- Abbreviations
- Printable Version (2.74 MB PDF)
Accessible versions of figures in Part 3
Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on June 21, 2016, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016-18 and over the longer run
Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for years 2016 through 2018 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2011 through 2015.
Change in real GDP
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8.7 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
PCE inflation
Percent
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level
| Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent) |
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | ||||
| 0.250 | ||||
| 0.375 | ||||
| 0.500 | ||||
| 0.625 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0.750 | ||||
| 0.875 | 9 | |||
| 1.000 | ||||
| 1.125 | 1 | |||
| 1.250 | ||||
| 1.375 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 1.500 | ||||
| 1.625 | 4 | |||
| 1.750 | ||||
| 1.875 | 3 | |||
| 2.000 | ||||
| 2.125 | 1 | 4 | ||
| 2.250 | 1 | |||
| 2.375 | 1 | 5 | ||
| 2.500 | ||||
| 2.625 | 1 | |||
| 2.750 | 3 | |||
| 2.875 | 3 | |||
| 3.000 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 3.125 | ||||
| 3.250 | 1 | 4 | ||
| 3.375 | 1 | |||
| 3.500 | 1 | |||
| 3.625 | ||||
| 3.750 | 2 |
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections.
