Accessible Versions of Figures in Part 4

Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on July 15, 2008, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2008-10

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2008 through 2010. Actual data for years 2003 through 2007. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in Real GDP (Percent)

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	3.7	3.1	2.9	2.6	2.5	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	3.0	3.5
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.6	2.8	3.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	2.0	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	0.9	1.9	2.0

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	5.8	5.4	4.9	4.4	4.8	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	5.8	6.1	5.8
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	5.7	5.8	5.6
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	5.5	5.3	5.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	5.5	5.2	5.0

PCE Inflation (Percent)

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	1.9	3.1	3.2	1.9	3.4	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	4.6	3.0	2.1
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	4.2	2.3	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.8	2.0	1.8
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.4	1.7	1.6

Core PCE Inflation (Percent)

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	1.4	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.1	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.5	2.3	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.4	2.2	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.2	2.0	1.8
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	1.8	1.5

Return to text

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP and for the unemployment rate, 2008-10

Histograms, six panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Real GDP Projections (Number of Participants)

Projections	0.0-0.1	0.2-0.3	0.4-0.5	0.6-0.7	0.8-0.9	1.0-1.1	1.2-1.3	1.4-1.5	1.6-1.7	1.8-1.9	2.0-2.1	2.2-2.3	2.4-2.5	2.6-2.7	2.8-2.9	3.0-3.1	3.2-3.3	3.4-3.5
2008
June	0	0	0	0	2	3	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
April	1	3	2	1	5	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2009
June	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	2	3	2	2	0	0
April	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	2	3	3	1	3	0	0
2010
June	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	4	4	3	1	1
April	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	2	5	2	1

Unemployment Rate Projections (Number of Participants)

Projections	4.8-4.9	5.0-5.1	5.2-5.3	5.4-5.5	5.6-5.7	5.8-5.9	6.0-6.1	6.2-6.3
2008
June	0	0	0	6	9	2	0	0
April	0	0	1	6	8	1	1	0
2009
June	0	0	4	4	5	3	1	0
April	0	0	7	3	4	2	0	1
2010
June	0	7	1	4	4	1	0	0
April	4	3	4	4	1	1	0	0

Return to text

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation and for core PCE inflation, 2008-10

Histograms, six panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

PCE Inflation Projections (Number of Participants)

Projections	1.5-1.6	1.7-1.8	1.9-2.0	2.1-2.2	2.3-2.4	2.5-2.6	2.7-2.8	2.9-3.0	3.1-3.2	3.3-3.4	3.5-3.6	3.7-3.8	3.9-4.0	4.1-4.2	4.3-4.4	4.5-4.6
2008
June	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	7	1	1
April	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
2009
June	0	1	5	6	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
April	0	3	7	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2010
June	1	5	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
April	1	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Core PCE Inflation Projections (Number of Participants)

Projections	1.3-1.4	1.5-1.6	1.7-1.8	1.9-2.0	2.1-2.2	2.3-2.4	2.5-2.6
2008
June	0	0	0	1	5	9	2
April	0	0	0	1	7	7	2
2009
June	0	0	1	6	8	2	0
April	0	0	3	9	5	0	0
2010
June	0	2	6	9	0	0	0
April	1	1	10	5	0	0	0

Return to text