Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Figure 1. Inflation

12-month percent change

Month Total PCE Core PCE
1/31/2019 1.50 1.85
2/28/2019 1.43 1.74
3/31/2019 1.51 1.61
4/30/2019 1.58 1.65
5/31/2019 1.46 1.57
6/30/2019 1.41 1.68
7/31/2019 1.44 1.67
8/31/2019 1.42 1.76
9/30/2019 1.30 1.65
10/31/2019 1.33 1.64
11/30/2019 1.33 1.47
12/31/2019 1.54 1.50
1/31/2020 1.70 1.55
2/29/2020 1.64 1.66
3/31/2020 1.15 1.49
4/30/2020 0.41 0.93
5/31/2020 0.45 0.95
6/30/2020 0.71 0.91
7/31/2020 0.90 1.16
8/31/2020 1.17 1.37
9/30/2020 1.25 1.44
10/31/2020 1.12 1.37
11/30/2020 1.15 1.43
12/31/2020 1.37 1.55
1/31/2021 1.62 1.72
2/28/2021 1.89 1.75
3/31/2021 2.71 2.26
4/30/2021 3.72 3.22
5/31/2021 4.16 3.64
6/30/2021 4.37 3.95
7/31/2021 4.53 4.01
8/31/2021 4.64 4.02
9/30/2021 4.81 4.07
10/31/2021 5.41 4.50
11/30/2021 5.99 4.95
12/31/2021 6.18 5.24
1/31/2022 6.30 5.37
2/28/2022 6.55 5.57
3/31/2022 6.89 5.55
4/30/2022 6.62 5.25
5/31/2022 6.69 5.07
6/30/2022 7.12 5.19
7/31/2022 6.62 4.96
8/31/2022 6.52 5.21
9/30/2022 6.56 5.47
10/31/2022 6.35 5.33
11/30/2022 5.93 5.09
12/31/2022 5.44 4.87
1/31/2023 5.48 4.90
2/28/2023 5.19 4.84
3/31/2023 4.44 4.78
4/30/2023 4.45 4.76
5/31/2023 3.96 4.69
6/30/2023 3.20 4.28
7/31/2023 3.40 4.29
8/31/2023 3.45 3.84
9/30/2023 3.44 3.68

Note: The data are monthly and extend through September 2023. PCE is personal consumption expenditures. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE, via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2. Monthly Core PCE Inflation in 2021

Percent

Month Monthly Core PCE Inflation
Jan. 0.35
Feb. 0.22
Mar. 0.42
Apr. 0.61
May 0.53
June 0.45
July 0.43
Aug. 0.31
Sept. 0.21
Oct. 0.49
Nov. 0.51
Dec. 0.60

Note: The data are monthly percent changes in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index during 2021.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE, via Haver Analytics.

Figure 3. Wage Growth

12-month percent change

Month AHE ECI Atl. Wage Growth Tracker Indeed
1/1/2019 3.22 NA 3.80 3.22
2/1/2019 3.55 NA 3.40 3.45
3/1/2019 3.46 2.81 3.50 3.70
4/1/2019 3.12 NA 3.60 3.42
5/1/2019 3.26 NA 3.70 3.33
6/1/2019 3.37 2.63 3.90 3.30
7/1/2019 3.43 NA 3.90 2.94
8/1/2019 3.42 NA 3.70 3.45
9/1/2019 3.11 2.69 3.60 2.67
10/1/2019 3.22 NA 3.50 2.75
11/1/2019 3.32 NA 3.70 2.70
12/1/2019 2.94 2.68 3.70 2.17
1/1/2020 3.04 NA 3.80 2.35
2/1/2020 3.07 NA 3.70 2.53
3/1/2020 3.63 2.80 3.50 3.09
4/1/2020 8.11 NA 3.30 3.23
5/1/2020 6.68 NA 3.50 1.90
6/1/2020 5.12 2.71 3.80 1.80
7/1/2020 4.89 NA 3.90 2.38
8/1/2020 4.80 NA 3.50 2.56
9/1/2020 4.79 2.40 3.50 2.94
10/1/2020 4.60 NA 3.50 3.33
11/1/2020 4.55 NA 3.70 3.23
12/1/2020 5.46 2.61 3.40 3.57
1/1/2021 5.24 NA 3.40 4.00
2/1/2021 5.25 NA 3.40 4.55
3/1/2021 4.34 2.80 3.40 4.35
4/1/2021 0.63 NA 3.20 5.00
5/1/2021 2.22 NA 3.00 7.69
6/1/2021 3.95 3.07 3.20 7.69
7/1/2021 4.32 NA 3.70 8.00
8/1/2021 4.41 NA 3.90 8.33
9/1/2021 4.88 4.05 4.20 8.57
10/1/2021 5.42 NA 4.10 9.09
11/1/2021 5.40 NA 4.30 9.49
12/1/2021 5.01 4.38 4.50 9.09
1/1/2022 5.72 NA 5.10 9.27
2/1/2022 5.26 NA 5.80 9.00
3/1/2022 5.92 4.82 6.00 9.13
4/1/2022 5.76 NA 6.00 9.03
5/1/2022 5.53 NA 6.10 8.33
6/1/2022 5.40 5.54 6.70 8.00
7/1/2022 5.45 NA 6.70 7.69
8/1/2022 5.36 NA 6.70 7.55
9/1/2022 5.07 5.19 6.30 6.92
10/1/2022 4.88 NA 6.40 6.59
11/1/2022 4.99 NA 6.40 6.25
12/1/2022 4.77 5.07 6.10 6.25
1/1/2023 4.39 NA 6.10 6.17
2/1/2023 4.68 NA 6.10 6.25
3/1/2023 4.30 4.79 6.40 5.84
4/1/2023 4.38 NA 6.10 5.27
5/1/2023 4.34 NA 6.00 5.26
6/1/2023 4.41 4.46 5.60 4.90
7/1/2023 4.33 NA 5.70 4.29
8/1/2023 4.29 NA 5.30 4.23
9/1/2023 4.30 4.29 5.20 4.41
10/1/2023 4.10 NA NA NA

Note: The data for average hourly earnings (AHE) is monthly and extends through October 2023. The data for Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and Indeed are monthly and extend through September 2023. Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker data are shown as a 3-month moving average of the 12-month percent change. Employment cost index (ECI) change is over the 12 months ending in the last month of each quarter and starts in 2019:Q1 and extends through 2023:Q3. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker; Indeed; all via Haver Analytics.

Figure 4. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Percent

Month 10-Year Treasury Yield
1/15/1980 10.44
2/15/1980 11.86
3/15/1980 11.93
4/15/1980 11.01
5/15/1980 10.08
6/15/1980 9.58
7/15/1980 9.98
8/15/1980 10.79
9/15/1980 11.17
10/15/1980 11.41
11/15/1980 12.08
12/15/1980 12.12
1/15/1981 11.92
2/15/1981 12.54
3/15/1981 12.66
4/15/1981 13.04
5/15/1981 13.25
6/15/1981 12.65
7/15/1981 13.33
8/15/1981 13.87
9/15/1981 14.41
10/15/1981 14.37
11/15/1981 12.86
12/15/1981 13.15
1/15/1982 14.01
2/15/1982 13.79
3/15/1982 13.15
4/15/1982 13.04
5/15/1982 12.91
6/15/1982 13.55
7/15/1982 13.25
8/15/1982 12.50
9/15/1982 11.86
10/15/1982 10.89
11/15/1982 10.55
12/15/1982 10.57
1/15/1983 10.57
2/15/1983 10.76
3/15/1983 10.53
4/15/1983 10.42
5/15/1983 10.42
6/15/1983 10.80
7/15/1983 11.33
8/15/1983 11.70
9/15/1983 11.53
10/15/1983 11.46
11/15/1983 11.55
12/15/1983 11.66
1/15/1984 11.51
2/15/1984 11.63
3/15/1984 12.11
4/15/1984 12.39
5/15/1984 13.09
6/15/1984 13.22
7/15/1984 13.03
8/15/1984 12.37
9/15/1984 12.12
10/15/1984 11.80
11/15/1984 11.39
12/15/1984 11.40
1/15/1985 11.33
2/15/1985 11.39
3/15/1985 11.74
4/15/1985 11.41
5/15/1985 10.91
6/15/1985 10.24
7/15/1985 10.40
8/15/1985 10.45
9/15/1985 10.51
10/15/1985 10.38
11/15/1985 9.95
12/15/1985 9.47
1/15/1986 9.37
2/15/1986 8.92
3/15/1986 7.97
4/15/1986 7.48
5/15/1986 7.95
6/15/1986 8.14
7/15/1986 7.74
8/15/1986 7.58
9/15/1986 7.91
10/15/1986 7.86
11/15/1986 7.65
12/15/1986 7.46
1/15/1987 7.39
2/15/1987 7.48
3/15/1987 7.43
4/15/1987 8.16
5/15/1987 8.68
6/15/1987 8.50
7/15/1987 8.57
8/15/1987 8.82
9/15/1987 9.45
10/15/1987 9.52
11/15/1987 8.91
12/15/1987 9.09
1/15/1988 8.84
2/15/1988 8.45
3/15/1988 8.61
4/15/1988 8.93
5/15/1988 9.23
6/15/1988 8.98
7/15/1988 9.16
8/15/1988 9.30
9/15/1988 8.99
10/15/1988 8.83
11/15/1988 8.92
12/15/1988 8.99
1/15/1989 8.96
2/15/1989 9.01
3/15/1989 9.14
4/15/1989 9.00
5/15/1989 8.76
6/15/1989 8.23
7/15/1989 8.00
8/15/1989 8.06
9/15/1989 8.14
10/15/1989 8.01
11/15/1989 7.86
12/15/1989 7.80
1/15/1990 8.16
2/15/1990 8.41
3/15/1990 8.51
4/15/1990 8.69
5/15/1990 8.68
6/15/1990 8.43
7/15/1990 8.45
8/15/1990 8.75
9/15/1990 8.94
10/15/1990 8.75
11/15/1990 8.42
12/15/1990 8.13
1/15/1991 8.21
2/15/1991 7.99
3/15/1991 8.23
4/15/1991 8.18
5/15/1991 8.26
6/15/1991 8.44
7/15/1991 8.39
8/15/1991 8.11
9/15/1991 7.88
10/15/1991 7.76
11/15/1991 7.75
12/15/1991 7.50
1/15/1992 7.48
2/15/1992 7.70
3/15/1992 7.76
4/15/1992 7.76
5/15/1992 7.69
6/15/1992 7.60
7/15/1992 7.33
8/15/1992 7.11
9/15/1992 7.01
10/15/1992 7.13
11/15/1992 7.26
12/15/1992 7.15
1/15/1993 7.01
2/15/1993 6.68
3/15/1993 6.45
4/15/1993 6.43
5/15/1993 6.43
6/15/1993 6.25
7/15/1993 6.07
8/15/1993 5.97
9/15/1993 5.65
10/15/1993 5.61
11/15/1993 5.98
12/15/1993 6.00
1/15/1994 5.97
2/15/1994 6.20
3/15/1994 6.70
4/15/1994 7.15
5/15/1994 7.30
6/15/1994 7.21
7/15/1994 7.41
8/15/1994 7.33
9/15/1994 7.56
10/15/1994 7.79
11/15/1994 7.94
12/15/1994 7.76
1/15/1995 7.77
2/15/1995 7.47
3/15/1995 7.26
4/15/1995 7.12
5/15/1995 6.68
6/15/1995 6.27
7/15/1995 6.38
8/15/1995 6.58
9/15/1995 6.31
10/15/1995 6.11
11/15/1995 6.00
12/15/1995 5.80
1/15/1996 5.76
2/15/1996 5.94
3/15/1996 6.41
4/15/1996 6.65
5/15/1996 6.82
6/15/1996 6.95
7/15/1996 6.87
8/15/1996 6.64
9/15/1996 6.87
10/15/1996 6.58
11/15/1996 6.25
12/15/1996 6.33
1/15/1997 6.59
2/15/1997 6.45
3/15/1997 6.74
4/15/1997 6.92
5/15/1997 6.74
6/15/1997 6.55
7/15/1997 6.28
8/15/1997 6.38
9/15/1997 6.31
10/15/1997 6.13
11/15/1997 5.94
12/15/1997 5.84
1/15/1998 5.63
2/15/1998 5.69
3/15/1998 5.76
4/15/1998 5.75
5/15/1998 5.77
6/15/1998 5.61
7/15/1998 5.56
8/15/1998 5.42
9/15/1998 5.00
10/15/1998 4.85
11/15/1998 5.07
12/15/1998 4.93
1/15/1999 5.07
2/15/1999 5.34
3/15/1999 5.58
4/15/1999 5.50
5/15/1999 5.81
6/15/1999 6.16
7/15/1999 6.08
8/15/1999 6.26
9/15/1999 6.30
10/15/1999 6.49
11/15/1999 6.31
12/15/1999 6.54
1/15/2000 6.77
2/15/2000 6.60
3/15/2000 6.40
4/15/2000 6.16
5/15/2000 6.55
6/15/2000 6.22
7/15/2000 6.14
8/15/2000 5.96
9/15/2000 5.99
10/15/2000 5.89
11/15/2000 5.83
12/15/2000 5.41
1/15/2001 5.38
2/15/2001 5.35
3/15/2001 5.20
4/15/2001 5.44
5/15/2001 5.65
6/15/2001 5.56
7/15/2001 5.50
8/15/2001 5.30
9/15/2001 5.15
10/15/2001 4.97
11/15/2001 5.05
12/15/2001 5.53
1/15/2002 5.45
2/15/2002 5.36
3/15/2002 5.71
4/15/2002 5.60
5/15/2002 5.52
6/15/2002 5.28
7/15/2002 5.04
8/15/2002 4.69
9/15/2002 4.30
10/15/2002 4.40
11/15/2002 4.48
12/15/2002 4.46
1/15/2003 4.46
2/15/2003 4.29
3/15/2003 4.18
4/15/2003 4.31
5/15/2003 3.88
6/15/2003 3.63
7/15/2003 4.30
8/15/2003 4.82
9/15/2003 4.62
10/15/2003 4.62
11/15/2003 4.61
12/15/2003 4.56
1/15/2004 4.43
2/15/2004 4.36
3/15/2004 4.10
4/15/2004 4.64
5/15/2004 5.01
6/15/2004 5.01
7/15/2004 4.76
8/15/2004 4.55
9/15/2004 4.36
10/15/2004 4.33
11/15/2004 4.40
12/15/2004 4.42
1/15/2005 4.37
2/15/2005 4.28
3/15/2005 4.61
4/15/2005 4.45
5/15/2005 4.24
6/15/2005 4.08
7/15/2005 4.24
8/15/2005 4.32
9/15/2005 4.28
10/15/2005 4.54
11/15/2005 4.64
12/15/2005 4.55
1/15/2006 4.47
2/15/2006 4.61
3/15/2006 4.78
4/15/2006 5.04
5/15/2006 5.16
6/15/2006 5.14
7/15/2006 5.10
8/15/2006 4.91
9/15/2006 4.76
10/15/2006 4.76
11/15/2006 4.62
12/15/2006 4.60
1/15/2007 4.79
2/15/2007 4.76
3/15/2007 4.62
4/15/2007 4.75
5/15/2007 4.78
6/15/2007 5.14
7/15/2007 5.06
8/15/2007 4.80
9/15/2007 4.65
10/15/2007 4.65
11/15/2007 4.35
12/15/2007 4.34
1/15/2008 4.01
2/15/2008 4.07
3/15/2008 3.87
4/15/2008 4.00
5/15/2008 4.18
6/15/2008 4.39
7/15/2008 4.28
8/15/2008 4.16
9/15/2008 4.00
10/15/2008 4.44
11/15/2008 4.24
12/15/2008 3.06
1/15/2009 3.19
2/15/2009 3.53
3/15/2009 3.37
4/15/2009 3.38
5/15/2009 3.78
6/15/2009 4.23
7/15/2009 4.04
8/15/2009 4.03
9/15/2009 3.83
10/15/2009 3.78
11/15/2009 3.80
12/15/2009 3.95
1/15/2010 4.07
2/15/2010 4.03
3/15/2010 4.02
4/15/2010 4.10
5/15/2010 3.70
6/15/2010 3.49
7/15/2010 3.27
8/15/2010 2.90
9/15/2010 2.87
10/15/2010 2.75
11/15/2010 2.96
12/15/2010 3.54
1/15/2011 3.63
2/15/2011 3.80
3/15/2011 3.64
4/15/2011 3.69
5/15/2011 3.39
6/15/2011 3.22
7/15/2011 3.23
8/15/2011 2.47
9/15/2011 2.11
10/15/2011 2.29
11/15/2011 2.12
12/15/2011 2.08
1/15/2012 2.06
2/15/2012 2.05
3/15/2012 2.28
4/15/2012 2.14
5/15/2012 1.85
6/15/2012 1.66
7/15/2012 1.56
8/15/2012 1.74
9/15/2012 1.76
10/15/2012 1.78
11/15/2012 1.68
12/15/2012 1.75
1/15/2013 1.97
2/15/2013 2.05
3/15/2013 2.02
4/15/2013 1.79
5/15/2013 1.99
6/15/2013 2.41
7/15/2013 2.71
8/15/2013 2.90
9/15/2013 2.95
10/15/2013 2.75
11/15/2013 2.88
12/15/2013 3.07
1/15/2014 3.01
2/15/2014 2.85
3/15/2014 2.85
4/15/2014 2.83
5/15/2014 2.66
6/15/2014 2.71
7/15/2014 2.64
8/15/2014 2.52
9/15/2014 2.63
10/15/2014 2.40
11/15/2014 2.43
12/15/2014 2.28
1/15/2015 1.95
2/15/2015 2.07
3/15/2015 2.13
4/15/2015 2.02
5/15/2015 2.31
6/15/2015 2.47
7/15/2015 2.41
8/15/2015 2.24
9/15/2015 2.26
10/15/2015 2.15
11/15/2015 2.36
12/15/2015 2.34
1/15/2016 2.17
2/15/2016 1.87
3/15/2016 1.98
4/15/2016 1.87
5/15/2016 1.87
6/15/2016 1.70
7/15/2016 1.54
8/15/2016 1.60
9/15/2016 1.68
10/15/2016 1.81
11/15/2016 2.22
12/15/2016 2.59
1/15/2017 2.51
2/15/2017 2.50
3/15/2017 2.55
4/15/2017 2.36
5/15/2017 2.37
6/15/2017 2.23
7/15/2017 2.37
8/15/2017 2.26
9/15/2017 2.24
10/15/2017 2.39
11/15/2017 2.38
12/15/2017 2.43
1/15/2018 2.60
2/15/2018 2.89
3/15/2018 2.86
4/15/2018 2.86
5/15/2018 2.98
6/15/2018 2.92
7/15/2018 2.89
8/15/2018 2.89
9/15/2018 3.00
10/15/2018 3.15
11/15/2018 3.12
12/15/2018 2.82
1/15/2019 2.70
2/15/2019 2.67
3/15/2019 2.57
4/15/2019 2.54
5/15/2019 2.41
6/15/2019 2.09
7/15/2019 2.06
8/15/2019 1.64
9/15/2019 1.71
10/15/2019 1.71
11/15/2019 1.83
12/15/2019 1.89
1/15/2020 1.78
2/15/2020 1.52
3/15/2020 0.95
4/15/2020 0.72
5/15/2020 0.71
6/15/2020 0.75
7/15/2020 0.63
8/15/2020 0.65
9/15/2020 0.68
10/15/2020 0.79
11/15/2020 0.88
12/15/2020 0.94
1/15/2021 1.10
2/15/2021 1.30
3/15/2021 1.71
4/15/2021 1.73
5/15/2021 1.72
6/15/2021 1.61
7/15/2021 1.38
8/15/2021 1.34
9/15/2021 1.42
10/15/2021 1.64
11/15/2021 1.62
12/15/2021 1.54
1/15/2022 1.85
2/15/2022 2.01
3/15/2022 2.18
4/15/2022 2.80
5/15/2022 2.97
6/15/2022 3.22
7/15/2022 2.97
8/15/2022 2.93
9/15/2022 3.56
10/15/2022 4.04
11/15/2022 3.94
12/15/2022 3.61
1/15/2023 3.52
2/15/2023 3.73
3/15/2023 3.69
4/15/2023 3.49
5/15/2023 3.61
6/15/2023 3.75
7/15/2023 3.89
8/15/2023 4.16
9/15/2023 4.40
10/15/2023 4.87
11/3/2023 4.73

Note: Zero-coupon yields are estimated from a smoothed yield curve fitted to the prices of off-the-run Treasury securities. Series shows monthly average of daily data through November 3, 2023. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Board staff calculations.

Last Update: November 09, 2023