Appendix A: Supervisory Scenarios
This appendix includes the historical data and scenarios provided by the Federal Reserve.
It is important to note that the severely adverse and alternative severe scenarios are not forecasts but rather are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments.
Table A.1. Historical data: Domestic variables, Q1:2000–Q2:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q1 2000 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 14,296 | 102 | 127 | 27.0 |
| Q2 2000 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 13,619 | 105 | 126 | 33.5 |
| Q3 2000 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 13,613 | 107 | 139 | 21.9 |
| Q4 2000 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 12,176 | 110 | 144 | 31.7 |
| Q1 2001 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10,646 | 112 | 143 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.4 | 4.9 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11,407 | 114 | 142 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9,563 | 116 | 144 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.1 | 2.4 | -5.0 | -4.7 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10,708 | 118 | 139 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10,776 | 120 | 139 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9,384 | 124 | 140 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.8 | 3.7 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7,774 | 127 | 141 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8,343 | 129 | 145 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8,052 | 132 | 152 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9,342 | 135 | 151 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9,650 | 139 | 149 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10,800 | 143 | 147 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11,039 | 148 | 154 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 11,145 | 154 | 164 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10,894 | 159 | 174 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11,952 | 165 | 179 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.5 | 7.9 | -4.6 | -2.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11,637 | 172 | 179 | 14.7 |
| Q2 2005 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11,857 | 179 | 185 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12,283 | 185 | 190 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12,497 | 190 | 198 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13,122 | 193 | 204 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12,809 | 193 | 212 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13,323 | 191 | 220 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14,216 | 191 | 222 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14,354 | 189 | 230 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15,163 | 183 | 239 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15,318 | 178 | 247 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14,754 | 172 | 247 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -2.3 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13,284 | 165 | 234 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13,016 | 157 | 224 | 24.1 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.1 | 0.8 | -8.1 | -4.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11,826 | 150 | 230 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.4 | -7.2 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9,057 | 143 | 219 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -1.7 | -4.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8,044 | 138 | 209 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.6 | -1.2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9,343 | 138 | 180 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -4.4 | -1.8 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 10,813 | 139 | 161 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 4.5 | 5.9 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11,385 | 139 | 159 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12,033 | 139 | 154 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 9.6 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10,646 | 139 | 167 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11,814 | 136 | 167 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13,132 | 135 | 168 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | -1.0 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13,909 | 133 | 171 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.9 | 5.6 | -0.9 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13,844 | 133 | 173 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11,677 | 134 | 169 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13,019 | 134 | 176 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14,628 | 135 | 180 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14,100 | 138 | 178 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -2.8 | -1.7 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14,895 | 141 | 184 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14,835 | 144 | 184 | 22.7 |
| Q1 2013 | 3.6 | 5.3 | -15.1 | -13.9 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16,396 | 148 | 188 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2013 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16,771 | 152 | 197 | 20.5 |
| Q3 2013 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17,718 | 155 | 207 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2013 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19,413 | 158 | 211 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2014 | -1.1 | 0.5 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19,711 | 160 | 209 | 21.4 |
| Q2 2014 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20,569 | 161 | 214 | 17.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20,459 | 164 | 218 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2014 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 21,425 | 166 | 226 | 26.3 |
| Q1 2015 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5.5 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 21,708 | 168 | 240 | 22.4 |
| Q2 2015 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 21,631 | 170 | 243 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2015 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 19,959 | 173 | 245 | 40.7 |
| Q4 2015 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 21,101 | 175 | 246 | 24.4 |
| Q1 2016 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.9 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 21,179 | 177 | 238 | 28.1 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.3 | 4.1 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 21,622 | 179 | 242 | 25.8 |
| Q3 2016 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 22,469 | 182 | 254 | 18.1 |
| Q4 2016 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 23,277 | 185 | 258 | 22.5 |
| Q1 2017 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 24,508 | 187 | 255 | 13.1 |
| Q2 2017 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 25,125 | 190 | 264 | 16.0 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 26,149 | 193 | 268 | 16.0 |
| Q4 2017 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 27,673 | 196 | 277 | 13.1 |
| Q1 2018 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 27,383 | 199 | 272 | 37.3 |
| Q2 2018 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 28,314 | 201 | 286 | 23.6 |
| Q3 2018 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 30,190 | 203 | 278 | 16.1 |
| Q4 2018 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 25,725 | 205 | 280 | 36.1 |
| Q1 2019 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 29,194 | 206 | 288 | 25.5 |
| Q2 2019 | 1.5 | 4.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 30,244 | 208 | 301 | 20.6 |
| Q3 2019 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 30,442 | 210 | 309 | 24.6 |
| Q4 2019 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 33,035 | 213 | 301 | 20.6 |
| Q1 2020 | -5.0 | -3.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 25,985 | 213 | 304 | 82.7 |
| Q2 2020 | -31.7 | -33.3 | 47.0 | 44.4 | 13.0 | -3.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 31,577 | 216 | 305 | 57.1 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.2. Historical data: International variables, Q1:2000–Q2:2020
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2000 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.957 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 100.0 | 7.4 | -0.5 | 102.7 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.592 |
| Q2 2000 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.955 | 6.9 | -0.3 | 100.7 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 106.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 1.513 |
| Q3 2000 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.884 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 101.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 107.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.479 |
| Q4 2000 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.939 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 105.2 | 4.0 | -1.1 | 114.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.496 |
| Q1 2001 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.879 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 106.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 125.5 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.847 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 106.2 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 124.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 106.5 | -4.0 | -0.5 | 119.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 106.9 | -1.2 | -1.9 | 131.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 0.872 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 107.4 | 0.7 | -1.1 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 104.8 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 119.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 105.5 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 121.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.049 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 104.5 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 118.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q1 2003 | -1.4 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 105.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 118.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.150 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 119.9 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.165 | 14.6 | 0.1 | 102.6 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 111.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.260 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 103.4 | 4.5 | -1.0 | 107.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.229 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 104.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.218 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 102.8 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 109.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 110.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -0.8 | 1.9 | 102.7 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.297 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 98.5 | 2.0 | -1.2 | 107.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 2.7 | -1.0 | 110.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.206 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 98.5 | 3.9 | -1.0 | 113.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 11.6 | 1.6 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 117.9 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 96.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 117.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 114.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 96.2 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 118.0 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 94.5 | 5.3 | -0.5 | 119.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.337 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 3.0 | -0.7 | 117.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 91.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 123.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 90.5 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 115.0 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 89.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 99.9 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.4 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 88.7 | -1.5 | 1.8 | 106.2 | -2.2 | 5.7 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.1 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 91.6 | -4.9 | 3.4 | 105.9 | -6.1 | 5.8 | 1.780 |
| Q4 2008 | -6.8 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.6 | -1.1 | 92.3 | -9.4 | -2.1 | 90.8 | -8.0 | 0.5 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -12.0 | -1.0 | 1.326 | 4.2 | -1.4 | 94.3 | -17.8 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -6.8 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.0 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 8.6 | -1.6 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.2 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.4 | 89.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 1.600 |
| Q4 2009 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 90.7 | 5.6 | -1.5 | 93.1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.353 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 89.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 93.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.229 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 91.1 | 5.5 | -1.4 | 88.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 88.4 | 7.4 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 87.4 | -3.2 | 1.3 | 81.7 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.418 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 86.5 | -5.5 | -0.1 | 82.8 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 1.452 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 85.3 | -2.6 | -0.7 | 80.6 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.345 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 87.4 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 77.0 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 1.297 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 87.3 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 77.0 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 1.333 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 86.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 82.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.2 | 2.2 | 1.267 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 88.1 | -2.9 | -1.4 | 79.8 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1.286 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 86.3 | -1.5 | -1.9 | 77.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.6 | 2.5 | 1.319 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 86.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 86.6 | -0.6 | 4.0 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1.6 | 1.3 | 1.282 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 86.3 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 94.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.301 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 87.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 99.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 98.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.378 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 85.8 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 105.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.378 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 86.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 103.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.369 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 86.7 | -7.5 | 8.3 | 101.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 87.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 109.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 1.210 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 88.1 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 119.9 | 2.3 | -0.4 | 1.558 |
| Q1 2015 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 1.074 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 88.1 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 120.0 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 1.485 |
| Q2 2015 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.115 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 88.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 122.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.573 |
| Q3 2015 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.116 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 91.1 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 119.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.512 |
| Q4 2015 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 1.086 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 92.3 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 120.3 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 1.475 |
| Q1 2016 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 1.139 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 91.8 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 112.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.438 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.103 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 94.3 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 102.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.324 |
| Q3 2016 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.124 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 93.7 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 101.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.302 |
| Q4 2016 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.055 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 97.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 116.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.234 |
| Q1 2017 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.070 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 95.2 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 111.4 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 1.254 |
| Q2 2017 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.141 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 94.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 112.4 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.300 |
| Q3 2017 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.181 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 93.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 112.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.340 |
| Q4 2017 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.202 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 91.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 112.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.353 |
| Q1 2018 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.232 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 89.1 | -1.7 | 2.3 | 106.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.403 |
| Q2 2018 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.168 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 93.5 | 1.5 | -1.8 | 110.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.320 |
| Q3 2018 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 1.162 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 97.2 | -3.2 | 2.3 | 113.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.305 |
| Q4 2018 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.146 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 96.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 109.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.276 |
| Q1 2019 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.123 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 94.7 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 110.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.303 |
| Q2 2019 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.137 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 96.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 107.8 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 1.270 |
| Q3 2019 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.091 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 99.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 108.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.231 |
| Q4 2019 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.123 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 98.0 | -7.0 | 0.9 | 108.7 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.327 |
| Q1 2020 | -14.1 | 0.7 | 1.102 | -25.7 | 3.8 | 101.9 | -2.3 | 0.3 | 107.5 | -8.5 | 2.0 | 1.245 |
| Q2 2020 | -39.4 | -1.4 | 1.124 | 34.1 | -2.1 | 97.3 | -28.1 | -1.2 | 107.8 | -59.8 | -1.5 | 1.237 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.3. Supervisory baseline scenario: Domestic variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q3 2020 | 24.0 | 26.7 | -14.4 | -12.7 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 34,528 | 218 | 305 | 33.6 |
| Q4 2020 | 4.9 | 6.4 | -3.3 | -1.6 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 34,805 | 220 | 299 | 28.9 |
| Q1 2021 | 4.6 | 6.4 | -4.8 | -3.0 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 35,090 | 222 | 293 | 26.9 |
| Q2 2021 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 35,385 | 224 | 284 | 26.3 |
| Q3 2021 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 35,683 | 226 | 274 | 26.2 |
| Q4 2021 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 35,986 | 228 | 277 | 26.2 |
| Q1 2022 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 36,295 | 231 | 279 | 26.3 |
| Q2 2022 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 36,610 | 233 | 282 | 26.3 |
| Q3 2022 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 36,930 | 235 | 285 | 26.3 |
| Q4 2022 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 37,256 | 237 | 288 | 26.3 |
| Q1 2023 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 37,588 | 239 | 290 | 26.4 |
| Q2 2023 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 37,924 | 242 | 293 | 26.4 |
| Q3 2023 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 38,266 | 244 | 296 | 26.4 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.4. Supervisory baseline scenario: International variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 | 35.0 | 0.2 | 1.149 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 98.3 | 20.0 | -1.3 | 107.1 | 80.0 | -0.1 | 1.265 |
| Q4 2020 | 18.7 | 1.0 | 1.174 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 99.3 | 4.9 | -1.0 | 106.3 | 16.3 | 2.5 | 1.294 |
| Q1 2021 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.182 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 99.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 106.4 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 1.310 |
| Q2 2021 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.190 | 10.7 | 2.1 | 98.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 106.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.326 |
| Q3 2021 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.198 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 98.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 106.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.343 |
| Q4 2021 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.206 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 98.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 106.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.359 |
| Q1 2022 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.206 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 98.3 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 106.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.359 |
| Q2 2022 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.206 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 98.3 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 106.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.359 |
| Q3 2022 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.206 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 98.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 106.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.359 |
| Q4 2022 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.206 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 98.3 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 106.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.359 |
| Q1 2023 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.206 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 98.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 106.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.359 |
| Q2 2023 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.206 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 98.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 106.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.359 |
| Q3 2023 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.206 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 98.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 106.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.359 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.5. Supervisory severely adverse scenario: Domestic variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q3 2020 | 24.0 | 26.5 | -12.3 | -10.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 35,961 | 220 | 305 | 33.6 |
| Q4 2020 | -5.9 | -5.3 | -14.2 | -13.4 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 25,124 | 208 | 298 | 70.0 |
| Q1 2021 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -12.8 | -11.8 | 11.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 19,841 | 198 | 291 | 68.1 |
| Q2 2021 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -5.6 | -4.6 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 18,009 | 190 | 282 | 64.3 |
| Q3 2021 | -0.2 | 0.4 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 18,530 | 182 | 268 | 53.6 |
| Q4 2021 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -1.2 | 12.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 19,275 | 174 | 255 | 46.8 |
| Q1 2022 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 20,479 | 168 | 241 | 41.8 |
| Q2 2022 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 21,952 | 163 | 227 | 37.8 |
| Q3 2022 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 23,779 | 161 | 218 | 34.3 |
| Q4 2022 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 25,918 | 161 | 213 | 32.1 |
| Q1 2023 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 28,338 | 164 | 213 | 30.4 |
| Q2 2023 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 31,069 | 165 | 214 | 28.1 |
| Q3 2023 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 34,231 | 168 | 215 | 26.5 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.6. Supervisory severely adverse scenario: International variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 | 35.0 | 0.2 | 1.124 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 97.3 | 20.0 | -0.3 | 107.8 | 80.0 | 0.3 | 1.237 |
| Q4 2020 | -3.6 | -0.1 | 1.101 | -1.0 | 0.1 | 98.9 | -6.9 | -1.3 | 107.2 | -2.7 | 0.4 | 1.212 |
| Q1 2021 | -3.0 | -0.2 | 1.074 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 100.9 | -4.5 | -1.6 | 106.7 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 1.182 |
| Q2 2021 | -2.1 | 0.4 | 1.053 | 8.8 | -0.5 | 102.5 | -2.7 | -1.6 | 106.2 | -2.3 | 0.3 | 1.159 |
| Q3 2021 | -1.8 | 0.2 | 1.048 | 7.6 | -1.1 | 102.9 | -2.2 | -1.7 | 105.9 | -2.1 | 0.3 | 1.153 |
| Q4 2021 | -1.6 | 0.2 | 1.045 | 6.3 | -0.7 | 103.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 105.7 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 1.150 |
| Q1 2022 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.043 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 103.4 | 1.0 | -1.9 | 105.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.148 |
| Q2 2022 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 1.048 | 5.2 | -0.7 | 102.9 | 3.5 | -2.1 | 105.9 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 1.153 |
| Q3 2022 | 7.0 | -0.8 | 1.058 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 102.1 | 4.5 | -2.1 | 106.2 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 1.165 |
| Q4 2022 | 8.0 | -0.8 | 1.080 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 100.5 | 5.5 | -1.8 | 106.4 | 8.0 | 0.1 | 1.188 |
| Q1 2023 | 9.0 | -0.5 | 1.090 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 99.7 | 6.0 | -1.3 | 106.7 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 1.200 |
| Q2 2023 | 10.0 | -0.1 | 1.101 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 98.9 | 6.5 | -0.7 | 107.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.212 |
| Q3 2023 | 11.0 | 0.5 | 1.113 | 10.2 | 1.6 | 98.1 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 107.2 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 1.225 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.7. Supervisory alternative severe scenario: Domestic variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Unem- ployment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Level | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index | |||||||||||||
| Q3 2020 | 24.0 | 26.6 | -12.3 | -10.6 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 36,530 | 220 | 305 | 33.6 |
| Q4 2020 | -9.1 | -8.5 | -15.7 | -15.0 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 30,566 | 207 | 298 | 70.0 |
| Q1 2021 | 2.1 | 3.3 | -10.4 | -8.9 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 26,681 | 198 | 291 | 64.2 |
| Q2 2021 | 2.1 | 3.3 | -3.0 | -1.6 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 23,647 | 192 | 282 | 62.6 |
| Q3 2021 | 2.1 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 20,082 | 185 | 268 | 60.6 |
| Q4 2021 | 2.1 | 3.2 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 18,330 | 177 | 255 | 57.6 |
| Q1 2022 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 19,415 | 172 | 241 | 50.2 |
| Q2 2022 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 20,703 | 165 | 227 | 45.1 |
| Q3 2022 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 22,247 | 161 | 218 | 41.0 |
| Q4 2022 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 24,065 | 160 | 213 | 37.4 |
| Q1 2023 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 26,221 | 162 | 213 | 34.1 |
| Q2 2023 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 28,725 | 164 | 214 | 31.0 |
| Q3 2023 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 31,632 | 166 | 215 | 27.9 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Table A.8. Supervisory alternative severe scenario: International variables, Q3:2020–Q3:2023
Percent, unless otherwise indicated.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 | 35.0 | 0.3 | 1.113 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 98.3 | 20.0 | -0.3 | 107.6 | 80.0 | 0.3 | 1.225 |
| Q4 2020 | -4.4 | -0.1 | 1.101 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 99.3 | -6.9 | -1.3 | 107.3 | -4.1 | 0.4 | 1.212 |
| Q1 2021 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.069 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 102.3 | 1.0 | -1.5 | 106.7 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.177 |
| Q2 2021 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.074 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 101.8 | 1.0 | -1.2 | 106.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.182 |
| Q3 2021 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.080 | 7.8 | -0.3 | 101.3 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 106.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.188 |
| Q4 2021 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.085 | 5.9 | 0.3 | 100.8 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 107.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.194 |
| Q1 2022 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.090 | 3.8 | -0.4 | 100.3 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 107.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.200 |
| Q2 2022 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.102 | 4.0 | -0.5 | 100.1 | 0.6 | -1.1 | 107.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.215 |
| Q3 2022 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 1.112 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 99.9 | 0.7 | -1.4 | 107.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.229 |
| Q4 2022 | 1.0 | -1.5 | 1.121 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 99.8 | 0.7 | -1.5 | 107.0 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 1.241 |
| Q1 2023 | 2.0 | -1.6 | 1.129 | 4.7 | -0.4 | 99.6 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 107.0 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 1.253 |
| Q2 2023 | 2.8 | -1.6 | 1.137 | 6.2 | -0.4 | 99.5 | 1.5 | -1.4 | 106.9 | 3.0 | -0.4 | 1.263 |
| Q3 2023 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 1.143 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 99.4 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 106.9 | 3.5 | -0.4 | 1.272 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on the definitions and sources of historical observations of the variables in the table.
Notes Regarding Scenario Variables
Sources for data through 2020:Q2 (as released through September 10, 2020). The 2020:Q2 values of variables marked with an asterisk (*) are projected.
U.S. real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product, chained 2012 dollars, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 1.1.6, line 1).
U.S. nominal GDP growth: Percent change in gross domestic product (current dollars), expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 1.1.5, line 1).
U.S. real disposable income growth: Percent change in disposable personal income (current dollars) divided by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 2.1, line 27, and NIPA table 1.1.4, line 2).
U.S. nominal disposable income growth: Percent change in disposable personal income (current dollars), expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA table 2.1, line 27).
U.S. unemployment rate: Quarterly average of seasonally adjusted monthly data for the unemployment rate of the civilian, non-institutional population of age 16 years and older, Bureau of Labor Statistics (series LNS14000000).
U.S. CPI inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of seasonally adjusted monthly data for the all-items CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U), expressed at an annualized rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUSR0000SA0).
U.S. 3-month Treasury rate: Quarterly average of 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate on a discount basis, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board (series RIFSGFSM03_N.B).
U.S. 5-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes, constructed for the FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see Lars E. O. Svensson (1995), "Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson-Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, no. 3, Sveriges Riksbank, pp. 13–26.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, constructed for the FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see id.
U.S. BBB corporate yield: Quarterly average of ICE BofAML U.S. Corporate 7-10 Year Yield-to-Maturity Index, ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission (C4A4 series).
U.S. mortgage rate: Quarterly average of weekly series for the interest rate of a conventional, conforming, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, obtained from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
U.S. prime rate: Quarterly average of monthly series, H.15 Release (Selected Interest Rates), Federal Reserve Board (series RIFSPBLP_N.M).
U.S. Dow Jones Total Stock Market (Float Cap) Index: End-of-quarter value via Bloomberg Finance L.P.
* U.S. House Price Index: Price Index for Owner-Occupied Real Estate, Z.1 Release (Financial Accounts of the United States), Federal Reserve Board (series FL075035243.Q divided by 1000).
* U.S. Commercial Real Estate Price Index: Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Z.1 Release (Financial Accounts of the United States), Federal Reserve Board (series FL075035503.Q divided by 1000).
U.S. Market Volatility Index (VIX): VIX converted to quarterly frequency using the maximum close-of-day value in any quarter, Chicago Board Options Exchange via Bloomberg Finance LP.
Euro area real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver, extended back using ECB Area Wide Model dataset (ECB Working Paper series no. 42).
Euro area inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the harmonized index of consumer prices at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver.
Developing Asia real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on data from Bank of Korea via Haver; National Bureau of Statistics of China via Haver; Indian Central Statistics Office via Haver; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via Haver; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics via Haver.
Developing Asia inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index, or local equivalent, at an annualized rate, staff calculations based on data from National Bureau of Statistics of China via Haver; Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation via Haver; Labour Bureau of India via Haver; Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) via Haver; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via Haver; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics via Haver.
Japan real GDP growth: Percent change in gross domestic product at an annualized rate from 1980 to present and percent change in gross domestic expenditure at an annualized rate prior to 1980, Cabinet Office of Japan via Haver.
Japan inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index at an annualized rate, based on data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications via Haver.
U.K. real GDP growth: Percent change in gross domestic product at an annualized rate, U.K. Office for National Statistics via Haver.
U.K. inflation: Percent change in the quarterly average of the consumer price index at an annualized rate from 1988 to present and percent change in the quarterly average of the retail prices index prior to 1988, staff calculations based on data from the U.K. Office for National Statistics via Haver.
Exchange rates: End-of-quarter exchange rates, H.10 Release (Foreign Exchange Rates), Federal Reserve Board.