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Overview of financial system vulnerabilities

Asset valuations

  • Equity price-to-earnings ratios moved to the upper end of their historical distributions.
  • Corporate bond spreads fell to levels that are low relative to their historical averages.
  • Prices of residential real estate remained high relative to fundamentals.
  • Prices of commercial real estate declined amid deteriorating fundamentals.

Borrowing by businesses and households

  • The ratio of total private debt to gross domestic product (GDP) declined further, approaching its historical average.
  • The business debt-to-GDP ratio remained high, but business debt continued to decline in real terms amid subdued risky debt issuance. Firms' ability to service their debt remained robust.
  • Household debt was at modest levels relative to GDP and concentrated among prime-rated borrowers.

Leverage in the financial sector

  • The banking system remained sound and resilient, with risk-based capital ratios well above regulatory requirements.
  • Nonetheless, some banks continued to face sizable fair value losses on some fixed-rate assets held on their balance sheets.
  • Leverage increased from already elevated levels at the largest hedge funds.
  • Broker-dealer leverage remained near historically low levels.

Funding risks

  • Most domestic banks maintained high levels of liquid assets and stable funding.
  • However, concerns over uninsured deposits and other factors continued to generate funding pressures for a subset of banks.
  • Structural vulnerabilities persisted at money market funds, some other mutual funds, and stablecoins.
  • Life insurers continued to hold a high share of illiquid and risky assets.
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Survey of salient risks to the financial system

Survey respondents cited several emerging and existing events or conditions as presenting risks to the U.S. financial system and the broader global economy. For more information, see the box Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability.

  Persistent inflation; monetary tightening Policy uncertainty Commercial and residential real estate Banking-sector stress Fiscal debt sustainability
April 2024 72% of contacts surveyed 60% of contacts surveyed 56% of contacts surveyed 44% of contacts surveyed 40% of contacts surveyed
October 2023 72% of contacts surveyed 24% of contacts surveyed 72% of contacts surveyed 56% of contacts surveyed 44% of contacts surveyed
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Figure 1.1. Nominal Treasury yields remained close to the highest levels in the past 15 years

Percent, annual rate

Date 2-year 10-year
1997-01-01 6.01 6.58
1997-02-01 5.9 6.42
1997-03-01 6.22 6.69
1997-04-01 6.45 6.89
1997-05-01 6.28 6.71
1997-06-01 6.09 6.49
1997-07-01 5.89 6.22
1997-08-01 5.94 6.3
1997-09-01 5.88 6.21
1997-10-01 5.77 6.03
1997-11-01 5.71 5.88
1997-12-01 5.72 5.81
1998-01-01 5.36 5.54
1998-02-01 5.42 5.57
1998-03-01 5.56 5.65
1998-04-01 5.56 5.64
1998-05-01 5.59 5.65
1998-06-01 5.52 5.5
1998-07-01 5.46 5.46
1998-08-01 5.27 5.34
1998-09-01 4.67 4.81
1998-10-01 4.09 4.53
1998-11-01 4.54 4.83
1998-12-01 4.51 4.65
1999-01-01 4.62 4.72
1999-02-01 4.88 5
1999-03-01 5.05 5.23
1999-04-01 4.98 5.18
1999-05-01 5.25 5.54
1999-06-01 5.62 5.9
1999-07-01 5.55 5.79
1999-08-01 5.68 5.94
1999-09-01 5.66 5.92
1999-10-01 5.86 6.11
1999-11-01 5.86 6.03
1999-12-01 6.1 6.28
2000-01-01 6.44 6.66
2000-02-01 6.61 6.52
2000-03-01 6.53 6.26
2000-04-01 6.4 5.99
2000-05-01 6.81 6.44
2000-06-01 6.48 6.1
2000-07-01 6.34 6.05
2000-08-01 6.23 5.83
2000-09-01 6.08 5.8
2000-10-01 5.91 5.74
2000-11-01 5.88 5.72
2000-12-01 5.35 5.24
2001-01-01 4.76 5.16
2001-02-01 4.66 5.1
2001-03-01 4.34 4.89
2001-04-01 4.23 5.14
2001-05-01 4.26 5.39
2001-06-01 4.08 5.28
2001-07-01 4.04 5.24
2001-08-01 3.76 4.97
2001-09-01 3.12 4.73
2001-10-01 2.73 4.57
2001-11-01 2.78 4.65
2001-12-01 3.11 5.09
2002-01-01 3.03 5.04
2002-02-01 3.02 4.91
2002-03-01 3.56 5.28
2002-04-01 3.42 5.21
2002-05-01 3.26 5.16
2002-06-01 2.99 4.93
2002-07-01 2.56 4.65
2002-08-01 2.13 4.26
2002-09-01 2 3.87
2002-10-01 1.91 3.94
2002-11-01 1.92 4.05
2002-12-01 1.84 4.03
2003-01-01 1.74 4.05
2003-02-01 1.63 3.9
2003-03-01 1.57 3.81
2003-04-01 1.62 3.96
2003-05-01 1.42 3.57
2003-06-01 1.23 3.33
2003-07-01 1.47 3.98
2003-08-01 1.86 4.45
2003-09-01 1.71 4.27
2003-10-01 1.75 4.29
2003-11-01 1.93 4.3
2003-12-01 1.91 4.27
2004-01-01 1.76 4.15
2004-02-01 1.74 4.08
2004-03-01 1.58 3.83
2004-04-01 2.07 4.35
2004-05-01 2.53 4.72
2004-06-01 2.76 4.73
2004-07-01 2.64 4.5
2004-08-01 2.51 4.28
2004-09-01 2.53 4.13
2004-10-01 2.58 4.1
2004-11-01 2.85 4.19
2004-12-01 3.01 4.23
2005-01-01 3.22 4.22
2005-02-01 3.38 4.17
2005-03-01 3.73 4.5
2005-04-01 3.65 4.34
2005-05-01 3.64 4.14
2005-06-01 3.64 4
2005-07-01 3.87 4.18
2005-08-01 4.04 4.26
2005-09-01 3.95 4.2
2005-10-01 4.27 4.46
2005-11-01 4.42 4.54
2005-12-01 4.4 4.47
2006-01-01 4.4 4.42
2006-02-01 4.67 4.57
2006-03-01 4.73 4.72
2006-04-01 4.89 4.99
2006-05-01 4.97 5.11
2006-06-01 5.12 5.11
2006-07-01 5.12 5.09
2006-08-01 4.9 4.88
2006-09-01 4.77 4.72
2006-10-01 4.8 4.73
2006-11-01 4.74 4.6
2006-12-01 4.67 4.56
2007-01-01 4.88 4.76
2007-02-01 4.85 4.72
2007-03-01 4.57 4.56
2007-04-01 4.67 4.69
2007-05-01 4.77 4.75
2007-06-01 4.98 5.1
2007-07-01 4.82 5
2007-08-01 4.31 4.67
2007-09-01 4.01 4.52
2007-10-01 3.97 4.53
2007-11-01 3.34 4.15
2007-12-01 3.12 4.1
2008-01-01 2.48 3.74
2008-02-01 1.97 3.74
2008-03-01 1.62 3.51
2008-04-01 2.05 3.68
2008-05-01 2.45 3.88
2008-06-01 2.77 4.1
2008-07-01 2.57 4.01
2008-08-01 2.42 3.89
2008-09-01 2.08 3.69
2008-10-01 1.61 3.81
2008-11-01 1.21 3.53
2008-12-01 0.82 2.42
2009-01-01 0.81 2.52
2009-02-01 0.98 2.87
2009-03-01 0.93 2.82
2009-04-01 0.93 2.93
2009-05-01 0.93 3.29
2009-06-01 1.18 3.72
2009-07-01 1.02 3.56
2009-08-01 1.12 3.59
2009-09-01 0.96 3.4
2009-10-01 0.95 3.39
2009-11-01 0.8 3.4
2009-12-01 0.87 3.59
2010-01-01 0.93 3.73
2010-02-01 0.86 3.69
2010-03-01 0.96 3.73
2010-04-01 1.06 3.85
2010-05-01 0.83 3.42
2010-06-01 0.72 3.2
2010-07-01 0.62 3.01
2010-08-01 0.52 2.7
2010-09-01 0.48 2.65
2010-10-01 0.38 2.54
2010-11-01 0.45 2.76
2010-12-01 0.62 3.29
2011-01-01 0.61 3.39
2011-02-01 0.77 3.58
2011-03-01 0.7 3.41
2011-04-01 0.73 3.46
2011-05-01 0.56 3.17
2011-06-01 0.41 3
2011-07-01 0.41 3
2011-08-01 0.23 2.3
2011-09-01 0.21 1.98
2011-10-01 0.28 2.15
2011-11-01 0.25 2.01
2011-12-01 0.26 1.98
2012-01-01 0.24 1.97
2012-02-01 0.28 1.97
2012-03-01 0.34 2.17
2012-04-01 0.29 2.05
2012-05-01 0.29 1.8
2012-06-01 0.29 1.62
2012-07-01 0.25 1.53
2012-08-01 0.27 1.68
2012-09-01 0.26 1.72
2012-10-01 0.28 1.75
2012-11-01 0.27 1.65
2012-12-01 0.26 1.72
2013-01-01 0.27 1.91
2013-02-01 0.27 1.98
2013-03-01 0.26 1.96
2013-04-01 0.23 1.76
2013-05-01 0.25 1.93
2013-06-01 0.33 2.3
2013-07-01 0.34 2.58
2013-08-01 0.36 2.74
2013-09-01 0.4 2.81
2013-10-01 0.34 2.62
2013-11-01 0.3 2.72
2013-12-01 0.34 2.9
2014-01-01 0.39 2.86
2014-02-01 0.33 2.71
2014-03-01 0.4 2.72
2014-04-01 0.42 2.71
2014-05-01 0.39 2.56
2014-06-01 0.45 2.6
2014-07-01 0.51 2.54
2014-08-01 0.47 2.42
2014-09-01 0.57 2.53
2014-10-01 0.45 2.3
2014-11-01 0.53 2.33
2014-12-01 0.64 2.21
2015-01-01 0.55 1.88
2015-02-01 0.62 1.98
2015-03-01 0.64 2.04
2015-04-01 0.54 1.94
2015-05-01 0.61 2.2
2015-06-01 0.69 2.36
2015-07-01 0.67 2.32
2015-08-01 0.7 2.17
2015-09-01 0.71 2.17
2015-10-01 0.64 2.07
2015-11-01 0.88 2.26
2015-12-01 0.98 2.24
2016-01-01 0.9 2.09
2016-02-01 0.73 1.78
2016-03-01 0.88 1.89
2016-04-01 0.77 1.81
2016-05-01 0.82 1.81
2016-06-01 0.73 1.64
2016-07-01 0.67 1.5
2016-08-01 0.74 1.56
2016-09-01 0.77 1.63
2016-10-01 0.84 1.76
2016-11-01 0.98 2.14
2016-12-01 1.2 2.49
2017-01-01 1.21 2.43
2017-02-01 1.2 2.42
2017-03-01 1.31 2.48
2017-04-01 1.24 2.3
2017-05-01 1.3 2.3
2017-06-01 1.34 2.19
2017-07-01 1.37 2.32
2017-08-01 1.34 2.21
2017-09-01 1.38 2.2
2017-10-01 1.55 2.36
2017-11-01 1.7 2.35
2017-12-01 1.84 2.4
2018-01-01 2.03 2.58
2018-02-01 2.18 2.86
2018-03-01 2.28 2.84
2018-04-01 2.38 2.87
2018-05-01 2.51 2.98
2018-06-01 2.53 2.91
2018-07-01 2.61 2.89
2018-08-01 2.64 2.89
2018-09-01 2.77 3
2018-10-01 2.86 3.15
2018-11-01 2.86 3.12
2018-12-01 2.68 2.83
2019-01-01 2.54 2.71
2019-02-01 2.5 2.68
2019-03-01 2.41 2.57
2019-04-01 2.34 2.53
2019-05-01 2.21 2.4
2019-06-01 1.81 2.07
2019-07-01 1.84 2.06
2019-08-01 1.57 1.63
2019-09-01 1.65 1.7
2019-10-01 1.55 1.71
2019-11-01 1.61 1.81
2019-12-01 1.61 1.86
2020-01-01 1.52 1.76
2020-02-01 1.33 1.5
2020-03-01 0.45 0.87
2020-04-01 0.22 0.66
2020-05-01 0.17 0.67
2020-06-01 0.19 0.73
2020-07-01 0.15 0.62
2020-08-01 0.14 0.65
2020-09-01 0.13 0.68
2020-10-01 0.15 0.79
2020-11-01 0.17 0.87
2020-12-01 0.14 0.93
2021-01-01 0.13 1.08
2021-02-01 0.12 1.26
2021-03-01 0.15 1.61
2021-04-01 0.16 1.64
2021-05-01 0.16 1.62
2021-06-01 0.2 1.52
2021-07-01 0.22 1.32
2021-08-01 0.22 1.28
2021-09-01 0.24 1.37
2021-10-01 0.39 1.58
2021-11-01 0.51 1.56
2021-12-01 0.68 1.47
2022-01-01 0.98 1.76
2022-02-01 1.44 1.93
2022-03-01 1.91 2.13
2022-04-01 2.54 2.75
2022-05-01 2.62 2.9
2022-06-01 3 3.14
2022-07-01 3.04 2.9
2022-08-01 3.25 2.9
2022-09-01 3.86 3.52
2022-10-01 4.38 3.98
2022-11-01 4.5 3.89
2022-12-01 4.29 3.62
2023-01-01 4.21 3.53
2023-02-01 4.53 3.75
2023-03-01 4.3 3.66
2023-04-01 4.02 3.46
2023-05-01 4.13 3.57
2023-06-01 4.64 3.75
2023-07-01 4.83 3.9
2023-08-01 4.9 4.17
2023-09-01 5.02 4.38
2023-10-01 5.07 4.8
2023-11-01 4.88 4.5
2023-12-01 4.46 4.02
2024-01-01 4.32 4.06
2024-02-01 4.54 4.21
2024-03-01 4.59 4.21

Note: The 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates are the monthly average of the constant-maturity yields based on the most actively traded securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates."

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Figure 1.2. An estimate of the nominal Treasury term premium remained relatively low

Percentage points

Date Term Premium
1997-01-01 1.49387619608925
1997-02-01 1.42193889617920
1997-03-01 1.56349500417709
1997-04-01 1.66056819395585
1997-05-01 1.56349525565193
1997-06-01 1.48142857210977
1997-07-01 1.30218181826852
1997-08-01 1.33278094586872
1997-09-01 1.32660953203837
1997-10-01 1.21571363644166
1997-11-01 1.06898887952169
1997-12-01 0.99405455589294
1998-01-01 0.88231999874115
1998-02-01 0.91603158335937
1998-03-01 0.97421817616983
1998-04-01 0.97309047551382
1998-05-01 0.97581499814987
1998-06-01 0.88629545948722
1998-07-01 0.86406818303195
1998-08-01 0.79535714217595
1998-09-01 0.57252856805211
1998-10-01 0.61351904982612
1998-11-01 0.68882631314428
1998-12-01 0.59713182124225
1999-01-01 0.69821579205362
1999-02-01 0.84375788977272
1999-03-01 0.99568260234335
1999-04-01 0.97580000332424
1999-05-01 1.13935790563885
1999-06-01 1.32467727227644
1999-07-01 1.28947368421053
1999-08-01 1.35223636843941
1999-09-01 1.34805713381086
1999-10-01 1.44446498751640
1999-11-01 1.27639001011848
1999-12-01 1.35427726398815
2000-01-01 1.50946500301361
2000-02-01 1.38115000724792
2000-03-01 1.21349130506101
2000-04-01 1.04713683693033
2000-05-01 1.23775907538154
2000-06-01 1.05134545673024
2000-07-01 0.96387999653816
2000-08-01 0.82335217880166
2000-09-01 0.83604500293732
2000-10-01 0.74754286380041
2000-11-01 0.70152380920592
2000-12-01 0.52973000407219
2001-01-01 0.69438095887502
2001-02-01 0.77411052114085
2001-03-01 0.78375909274275
2001-04-01 1.06420498788357
2001-05-01 1.29313182288950
2001-06-01 1.29323333785647
2001-07-01 1.25510475749061
2001-08-01 1.17007391867430
2001-09-01 1.21610587484696
2001-10-01 1.27206818623976
2001-11-01 1.41033499240875
2001-12-01 1.78161498904228
2002-01-01 1.75319523470742
2002-02-01 1.65985790051912
2002-03-01 1.84941499829292
2002-04-01 1.80147726969285
2002-05-01 1.74901364066384
2002-06-01 1.59664998650551
2002-07-01 1.44536362452941
2002-08-01 1.20719091458754
2002-09-01 0.93414999544621
2002-10-01 0.98709090460431
2002-11-01 1.14546315920980
2002-12-01 1.15573809260414
2003-01-01 1.16111426694053
2003-02-01 1.06583157652303
2003-03-01 0.99284285874594
2003-04-01 1.08824284871419
2003-05-01 0.81813333148048
2003-06-01 0.67740952684766
2003-07-01 1.10343636436896
2003-08-01 1.45625713893345
2003-09-01 1.33401905354999
2003-10-01 1.32285455682061
2003-11-01 1.33156110843023
2003-12-01 1.31312273849141
2004-01-01 1.23159999251366
2004-02-01 1.18363158326400
2004-03-01 1.00030000572619
2004-04-01 1.34154762540545
2004-05-01 1.56125501394272
2004-06-01 1.48352380593618
2004-07-01 1.29254761763981
2004-08-01 1.12465454773469
2004-09-01 0.95767620347795
2004-10-01 0.89669500589371
2004-11-01 0.86949499249458
2004-12-01 0.83374090628191
2005-01-01 0.78052999973297
2005-02-01 0.68346842025456
2005-03-01 0.84596363251860
2005-04-01 0.72042381479627
2005-05-01 0.57196665803591
2005-06-01 0.44920908862894
2005-07-01 0.48403000086546
2005-08-01 0.47995217209277
2005-09-01 0.43298571308454
2005-10-01 0.52736499905586
2005-11-01 0.54386499524117
2005-12-01 0.48192857418742
2006-01-01 0.37166000157595
2006-02-01 0.42411578799549
2006-03-01 0.49160434759182
2006-04-01 0.61374210056506
2006-05-01 0.65898635983467
2006-06-01 0.61802272905003
2006-07-01 0.56058999896050
2006-08-01 0.44322173491768
2006-09-01 0.38348499685526
2006-10-01 0.36910476287206
2006-11-01 0.27474285733132
2006-12-01 0.27258000001311
2007-01-01 0.37589047494389
2007-02-01 0.35075789533163
2007-03-01 0.26522727039727
2007-04-01 0.35528571548916
2007-05-01 0.40774545479905
2007-06-01 0.66799999134881
2007-07-01 0.57876666670754
2007-08-01 0.53292173924653
2007-09-01 0.51194210428941
2007-10-01 0.53239091418006
2007-11-01 0.47749000191689
2007-12-01 0.52769000083208
2008-01-01 0.39703809931165
2008-02-01 0.63179000020027
2008-03-01 0.67179000675678
2008-04-01 0.77650454640389
2008-05-01 0.83594761575971
2008-06-01 0.92182857649667
2008-07-01 0.88442273031582
2008-08-01 0.79169048014141
2008-09-01 0.77657619828270
2008-10-01 1.10844090310010
2008-11-01 1.11563889516724
2008-12-01 0.50679544698108
2009-01-01 0.54770000129938
2009-02-01 0.74051052959342
2009-03-01 0.66835454377261
2009-04-01 0.67949048110417
2009-05-01 0.93476000130177
2009-06-01 1.27825456315821
2009-07-01 1.15004090829329
2009-08-01 1.17922379857018
2009-09-01 1.05722857656933
2009-10-01 1.02750476201375
2009-11-01 1.02790525712465
2009-12-01 1.10391820018942
2010-01-01 1.20727894180699
2010-02-01 1.15732631557866
2010-03-01 1.15418260512145
2010-04-01 1.22110000523654
2010-05-01 0.96019001007080
2010-06-01 0.82520454309203
2010-07-01 0.65829047134944
2010-08-01 0.42437727207487
2010-09-01 0.38724761775562
2010-10-01 0.27883500158787
2010-11-01 0.40001000016928
2010-12-01 0.80807272683490
2011-01-01 0.87370000183582
2011-02-01 1.01930526369496
2011-03-01 0.92058260803637
2011-04-01 0.96702499985695
2011-05-01 0.76268571331388
2011-06-01 0.60678636214950
2011-07-01 0.61241499632597
2011-08-01 0.15002608720375
2011-09-01 -0.04311904777396
2011-10-01 0.06628000047058
2011-11-01 -0.03269000025139
2011-12-01 -0.06211428488383
2012-01-01 -0.08969999980181
2012-02-01 -0.11923000067473
2012-03-01 0.02389545535499
2012-04-01 -0.05748571455479
2012-05-01 -0.22107272425836
2012-06-01 -0.33160952443168
2012-07-01 -0.39998094666572
2012-08-01 -0.29730869440929
2012-09-01 -0.29425789258982
2012-10-01 -0.28263809354532
2012-11-01 -0.33052000105381
2012-12-01 -0.29237999692559
2013-01-01 -0.16697142769893
2013-02-01 -0.11623157835320
2013-03-01 -0.13496499992907
2013-04-01 -0.25820454413241
2013-05-01 -0.14679090899881
2013-06-01 0.13666999959969
2013-07-01 0.34681364216588
2013-08-01 0.46296817606146
2013-09-01 0.52462500482798
2013-10-01 0.36396363513036
2013-11-01 0.41019473577801
2013-12-01 0.55254285959970
2014-01-01 0.56326666190511
2014-02-01 0.45349474015989
2014-03-01 0.48433333493414
2014-04-01 0.50188095229013
2014-05-01 0.40066666830154
2014-06-01 0.43160476003374
2014-07-01 0.40733181752942
2014-08-01 0.34238095084826
2014-09-01 0.42512856778644
2014-10-01 0.27208181809295
2014-11-01 0.29303888811006
2014-12-01 0.21479091115973
2015-01-01 0.00559999986363
2015-02-01 0.06802105374242
2015-03-01 0.10264545540452
2015-04-01 0.01210454556514
2015-05-01 0.19097499921918
2015-06-01 0.29705454476855
2015-07-01 0.25926363400438
2015-08-01 0.13421904668212
2015-09-01 0.13599523724545
2015-10-01 0.07142857125118
2015-11-01 0.18211579009106
2015-12-01 0.12458181804554
2016-01-01 0.01171578942357
2016-02-01 -0.19744000062347
2016-03-01 -0.12342272766612
2016-04-01 -0.17547619129930
2016-05-01 -0.17419047511759
2016-06-01 -0.28134545751593
2016-07-01 -0.37813000231981
2016-08-01 -0.34600869339445
2016-09-01 -0.30391904711723
2016-10-01 -0.23313999921084
2016-11-01 -0.00042999796569
2016-12-01 0.23997142839999
2017-01-01 0.19487999975681
2017-02-01 0.18231052787680
2017-03-01 0.16156956618247
2017-04-01 0.00816315786429
2017-05-01 -0.01639090893282
2017-06-01 -0.12879090857777
2017-07-01 -0.05971999955364
2017-08-01 -0.12134782613620
2017-09-01 -0.14099499881268
2017-10-01 -0.05683333351321
2017-11-01 -0.09271428627627
2017-12-01 -0.08237500060350
2018-01-01 -0.00222857172290
2018-02-01 0.13901052741628
2018-03-01 0.09334285637098
2018-04-01 0.08341904707430
2018-05-01 0.13237727264112
2018-06-01 0.07739047599690
2018-07-01 0.04093333315991
2018-08-01 0.01441304338084
2018-09-01 0.05396842076688
2018-10-01 0.11274999972772
2018-11-01 0.06526500037871
2018-12-01 -0.13053157827572
2019-01-01 -0.21357142783347
2019-02-01 -0.23472631761902
2019-03-01 -0.29969047719524
2019-04-01 -0.31558571401097
2019-05-01 -0.38693636384877
2019-06-01 -0.53797999769449
2019-07-01 -0.52849090912125
2019-08-01 -0.74349545619705
2019-09-01 -0.69248999655247
2019-10-01 -0.62907726927237
2019-11-01 -0.52113684855009
2019-12-01 -0.48552857410340
2020-01-01 -0.54832381010056
2020-02-01 -0.70858420510041
2020-03-01 -0.74760454893112
2020-04-01 -0.83640476067861
2020-05-01 -0.84864999651909
2020-06-01 -0.83839544924823
2020-07-01 -0.89669545130296
2020-08-01 -0.88822380701701
2020-09-01 -0.87314762104125
2020-10-01 -0.80891904944465
2020-11-01 -0.74806841737346
2020-12-01 -0.71791363304312
2021-01-01 -0.63408946677258
2021-02-01 -0.51284210776028
2021-03-01 -0.24336086796678
2021-04-01 -0.21143181825226
2021-05-01 -0.22790000140667
2021-06-01 -0.27697727016427
2021-07-01 -0.40305714096342
2021-08-01 -0.42706363309513
2021-09-01 -0.36504762158507
2021-10-01 -0.20738499909639
2021-11-01 -0.19846500083804
2021-12-01 -0.26228181882338
2022-01-01 -0.10475999936461
2022-02-01 -0.07133157943424
2022-03-01 -0.00709130355845
2022-04-01 0.28324999660254
2022-05-01 0.32105714082718
2022-06-01 0.32132857257412
2022-07-01 -0.05631500021555
2022-08-01 -0.17081304542396
2022-09-01 0.08192857081026
2022-10-01 0.21792500056326
2022-11-01 0.03666000082158
2022-12-01 -0.21677619130129
2023-01-01 -0.33284500129521
2023-02-01 -0.23357368613544
2023-03-01 -0.25125652081941
2023-04-01 -0.42671999782324
2023-05-01 -0.43282727084377
2023-06-01 -0.35511428543500
2023-07-01 -0.28868999704719
2023-08-01 -0.13306956602584
2023-09-01 0.00368500044569
2023-10-01 0.29071428307465
2023-11-01 0.13320476246909
2023-12-01 -0.16031499789096
2024-01-01 -0.13113809483392
2024-02-01 -0.03578000004636
2024-03-01 -0.05266999976011

Note: Term premiums are estimated from a 3-factor term structure model using Treasury yields and Blue Chip interest rate forecasts.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.3. Interest rate volatility fell slightly but continued to be elevated by historical norms

Basis points

Date Implied Volatility of 10-Year Swap Rate
2005-04-01 93.1407611818182
2005-05-01 87.2053020454545
2005-06-01 87.5994123636364
2005-07-01 89.3425940000000
2005-08-01 84.2202744347826
2005-09-01 83.8325441363636
2005-10-01 86.0325223333333
2005-11-01 87.1229912727273
2005-12-01 77.7070317272727
2006-01-01 75.8552282272727
2006-02-01 72.5708299500000
2006-03-01 72.1180623913043
2006-04-01 76.5682459500000
2006-05-01 74.3080899130435
2006-06-01 70.7608532727273
2006-07-01 69.4930483333333
2006-08-01 62.8133045217391
2006-09-01 62.7310715238095
2006-10-01 64.0431154545455
2006-11-01 67.6373596363636
2006-12-01 66.2340620000000
2007-01-01 66.4426889130435
2007-02-01 66.7878776000000
2007-03-01 70.8117155454545
2007-04-01 62.8650858095238
2007-05-01 58.1989928695652
2007-06-01 79.0500360952381
2007-07-01 82.6708996818182
2007-08-01 84.3294735217391
2007-09-01 97.0252322000000
2007-10-01 91.0426627826087
2007-11-01 97.0015865454545
2007-12-01 117.9762051904760
2008-01-01 133.4064236521740
2008-02-01 150.9233060952380
2008-03-01 163.9723355238100
2008-04-01 139.6435753636360
2008-05-01 126.3531985909090
2008-06-01 140.4754497619050
2008-07-01 127.8022199565220
2008-08-01 111.5671815714290
2008-09-01 141.1032905000000
2008-10-01 188.8759711304350
2008-11-01 205.8338857500000
2008-12-01 232.0306616956520
2009-01-01 169.8269715909090
2009-02-01 187.7330855000000
2009-03-01 157.2753674090910
2009-04-01 129.7365514545450
2009-05-01 153.2816031904760
2009-06-01 223.6558794090910
2009-07-01 197.7553324090910
2009-08-01 180.7456841904760
2009-09-01 147.8076396818180
2009-10-01 134.6450406363640
2009-11-01 112.4428005714290
2009-12-01 110.1041495000000
2010-01-01 109.9095010000000
2010-02-01 100.7843527000000
2010-03-01 90.5415333043478
2010-04-01 95.7845809090909
2010-05-01 108.3768390476190
2010-06-01 108.3489289545450
2010-07-01 91.2602745454545
2010-08-01 100.9084886818180
2010-09-01 110.9901589090910
2010-10-01 102.9314067142860
2010-11-01 109.1785347272730
2010-12-01 125.3473072272730
2011-01-01 113.2357514761900
2011-02-01 111.2275581500000
2011-03-01 110.3348527826090
2011-04-01 92.0810600500000
2011-05-01 89.4274393636364
2011-06-01 94.3602630909091
2011-07-01 101.4077653333330
2011-08-01 117.1096775217390
2011-09-01 121.0058491818180
2011-10-01 124.6392852380950
2011-11-01 125.2365083636360
2011-12-01 105.1092095909090
2012-01-01 86.8961869090909
2012-02-01 87.9287980476190
2012-03-01 92.8956355454546
2012-04-01 86.3847064761905
2012-05-01 78.4844144782609
2012-06-01 89.6806648095238
2012-07-01 72.8232575909091
2012-08-01 78.5166424347826
2012-09-01 75.8383667000000
2012-10-01 75.6908457391304
2012-11-01 67.6227298181818
2012-12-01 61.8341229047619
2013-01-01 67.3589163478261
2013-02-01 68.8840089000000
2013-03-01 64.7794116190476
2013-04-01 60.4505235000000
2013-05-01 69.0075274782609
2013-06-01 100.3947363000000
2013-07-01 104.7759794782610
2013-08-01 100.2640195000000
2013-09-01 101.2118931428570
2013-10-01 81.6170621739130
2013-11-01 74.5137228571429
2013-12-01 75.8982773636364
2014-01-01 70.3636708260870
2014-02-01 69.2855606000000
2014-03-01 65.5307374285714
2014-04-01 62.8501716666667
2014-05-01 61.4742948181818
2014-06-01 61.9679537142857
2014-07-01 59.6560042608696
2014-08-01 62.2641432380952
2014-09-01 65.4064466363636
2014-10-01 76.7030626956522
2014-11-01 67.4089236500000
2014-12-01 70.2256455652174
2015-01-01 87.0186313636364
2015-02-01 91.1326394500000
2015-03-01 84.3177593181818
2015-04-01 77.4148326818182
2015-05-01 86.7601392380952
2015-06-01 88.9114960000000
2015-07-01 82.9971814347826
2015-08-01 80.3195948500000
2015-09-01 79.7947395000000
2015-10-01 75.1609395454545
2015-11-01 72.1120120952381
2015-12-01 70.3005218260870
2016-01-01 76.2914845238095
2016-02-01 89.1231934761905
2016-03-01 78.9347058181818
2016-04-01 72.0117337619048
2016-05-01 69.0779673636364
2016-06-01 77.2490590000000
2016-07-01 76.8601374285714
2016-08-01 68.1436731739130
2016-09-01 67.2750649090909
2016-10-01 65.2515483809524
2016-11-01 83.5448066818182
2016-12-01 81.1593321363636
2017-01-01 81.1271510909091
2017-02-01 75.6451058000000
2017-03-01 69.9332405652174
2017-04-01 75.8273615000000
2017-05-01 62.2952567826087
2017-06-01 58.9056952272727
2017-07-01 59.5746184761905
2017-08-01 57.3938232608696
2017-09-01 58.1155528095238
2017-10-01 59.6366519545455
2017-11-01 52.3190709090909
2017-12-01 50.8717691904762
2018-01-01 55.5877003043478
2018-02-01 72.0271280000000
2018-03-01 63.4433651363636
2018-04-01 58.5823622857143
2018-05-01 58.5377230000000
2018-06-01 57.8168248095238
2018-07-01 53.9075479545455
2018-08-01 52.7038092608696
2018-09-01 51.7013490000000
2018-10-01 58.2089809130435
2018-11-01 57.7368546363636
2018-12-01 59.4768278095238
2019-01-01 56.8872852608696
2019-02-01 50.9286239500000
2019-03-01 52.1450475238095
2019-04-01 51.7224289090909
2019-05-01 57.2293738260870
2019-06-01 68.6766383000000
2019-07-01 62.1373200000000
2019-08-01 81.9997485454546
2019-09-01 82.1033849523809
2019-10-01 78.1486783478261
2019-11-01 66.9196303809524
2019-12-01 64.9177692272727
2020-01-01 63.7826934782609
2020-02-01 76.3504349000000
2020-03-01 128.1982829090910
2020-04-01 79.1194908181818
2020-05-01 62.0802865714286
2020-06-01 68.1176147272727
2020-07-01 56.0211723913043
2020-08-01 54.0961076666667
2020-09-01 49.9714252727273
2020-10-01 68.7694889545455
2020-11-01 57.2393500952381
2020-12-01 58.7475827391304
2021-01-01 58.6661465714286
2021-02-01 68.8616019500000
2021-03-01 82.8590066956522
2021-04-01 76.9544033181818
2021-05-01 69.6327573333333
2021-06-01 66.3641393636364
2021-07-01 73.0951925454546
2021-08-01 75.2578712727273
2021-09-01 69.0911080000000
2021-10-01 73.5020376666667
2021-11-01 79.6158680454545
2021-12-01 80.1248898695652
2022-01-01 81.8231407142857
2022-02-01 88.6890586500000
2022-03-01 108.6102514782610
2022-04-01 119.3662450000000
2022-05-01 114.9301181818180
2022-06-01 119.7093215909090
2022-07-01 122.7566329523810
2022-08-01 111.6782608695650
2022-09-01 127.0818181818180
2022-10-01 138.3523809523810
2022-11-01 126.5545454545450
2022-12-01 125.8590909090910
2023-01-01 111.9090909090910
2023-02-01 105.9850000000000
2023-03-01 120.6956521739130
2023-04-01 112.9050000000000
2023-05-01 115.9173913043480
2023-06-01 106.7772727272730
2023-07-01 108.0095238095240
2023-08-01 115.3739130434780
2023-09-01 112.3571428571430
2023-10-01 129.3863636363640
2023-11-01 117.2909090909090
2023-12-01 112.5857142857140
2024-01-01 107.9869565217390
2024-02-01 108.1476190476190
2024-03-01 101.3190476190480

Note: The data begin in April 2005. Implied volatility on the 10-year swap rate, 1 month ahead, is derived from swaptions.

Source: For data through July 13, 2022, Barclays and S&P Global; for data from July 14, 2022, onward, ICAP, Swaptions and Interest Rate Caps and Floors Data.

Return to text
Figure 1.4. The price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 firms increased to levels further above its historical median

Ratio

Date Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
1989-01-01 10.0642041004352
1989-02-01 10.1351785277036
1989-03-01 10.1118922462201
1989-04-01 10.4207590726509
1989-05-01 10.7228446891080
1989-06-01 10.8504116333394
1989-07-01 11.2392594036221
1989-08-01 11.5544806266731
1989-09-01 11.5054534466439
1989-10-01 11.4766417155518
1989-11-01 11.5116562988962
1989-12-01 11.8812905010920
1990-01-01 11.5253301676757
1990-02-01 11.2996436482706
1990-03-01 11.4928153778434
1990-04-01 11.6485959646005
1990-05-01 12.0714446710221
1990-06-01 12.3791505291935
1990-07-01 12.3891135597196
1990-08-01 11.5099674895943
1990-09-01 10.7870645246304
1990-10-01 10.3021545599654
1990-11-01 11.1825864275695
1990-12-01 11.6620618537876
1991-01-01 11.2520631617467
1991-02-01 13.4297373973324
1991-03-01 13.7676511619486
1991-04-01 14.4448937578081
1991-05-01 13.6412911081324
1991-06-01 13.9019610555980
1991-07-01 14.1587352437613
1991-08-01 14.3984685279974
1991-09-01 14.2098281900941
1991-10-01 14.3177036674953
1991-11-01 14.4579694647543
1991-12-01 14.0147931972351
1992-01-01 15.3733240239014
1992-02-01 15.0166156856854
1992-03-01 14.8698923112736
1992-04-01 14.8084722682607
1992-05-01 14.7012566468572
1992-06-01 14.0119323477933
1992-07-01 14.4288994144297
1992-08-01 14.4492792036095
1992-09-01 14.4067638714479
1992-10-01 14.0007456665535
1992-11-01 14.5131946779659
1992-12-01 14.7028563487786
1993-01-01 14.6080305648220
1993-02-01 14.6587228139057
1993-03-01 15.0087911001116
1993-04-01 15.0293979690151
1993-05-01 14.7210841779365
1993-06-01 14.6369471028704
1993-07-01 14.6337185703868
1993-08-01 14.7630294485469
1993-09-01 14.8018281543635
1993-10-01 14.6403330198253
1993-11-01 14.6645709081992
1993-12-01 14.4751595360612
1994-01-01 14.7450744677096
1994-02-01 14.6015699627999
1994-03-01 14.3344033038633
1994-04-01 13.4596920513799
1994-05-01 13.4202863736397
1994-06-01 13.4712142158110
1994-07-01 13.0052681175532
1994-08-01 13.2082079828365
1994-09-01 13.1110084606934
1994-10-01 12.9187629694705
1994-11-01 12.5574041986423
1994-12-01 12.0890353997795
1995-01-01 12.3126519658941
1995-02-01 12.4846693022309
1995-03-01 12.5091571942069
1995-04-01 12.6617743349616
1995-05-01 12.9077616132025
1995-06-01 13.0562649494836
1995-07-01 13.3014044029565
1995-08-01 13.3508512326715
1995-09-01 13.6719030292704
1995-10-01 13.7722621172874
1995-11-01 13.8051714342521
1995-12-01 14.3198703612651
1996-01-01 14.0111990808930
1996-02-01 15.2296363731547
1996-03-01 14.8043570617285
1996-04-01 14.7865508354932
1996-05-01 15.1905957553161
1996-06-01 14.7279453444068
1996-07-01 14.4050285357334
1996-08-01 14.9198407030755
1996-09-01 15.2446849445196
1996-10-01 15.6118248760686
1996-11-01 16.0706498518185
1996-12-01 15.8458912292950
1997-01-01 16.4576680119022
1997-02-01 17.3592229505404
1997-03-01 16.6477699918784
1997-04-01 16.0273439394106
1997-05-01 17.3853457016968
1997-06-01 18.3931881211402
1997-07-01 19.2280005865275
1997-08-01 18.6788110161274
1997-09-01 18.9185335938964
1997-10-01 19.1994215237027
1997-11-01 18.6019105974642
1997-12-01 18.8729138031310
1998-01-01 18.6650034687728
1998-02-01 20.3669601330907
1998-03-01 21.4253585433257
1998-04-01 21.9020057955050
1998-05-01 21.6885495932345
1998-06-01 21.4202767974114
1998-07-01 22.7745506545565
1998-08-01 21.1679008585543
1998-09-01 20.0165228950352
1998-10-01 19.2754072745377
1998-11-01 22.0211043312729
1998-12-01 22.3010226324535
1999-01-01 23.7010191646146
1999-02-01 23.5293776819871
1999-03-01 24.7257169346688
1999-04-01 24.9502254591470
1999-05-01 24.7376864132027
1999-06-01 24.2960595118963
1999-07-01 25.4371035829107
1999-08-01 23.9049826729959
1999-09-01 23.4638389210304
1999-10-01 22.5467256311648
1999-11-01 24.4968203960140
1999-12-01 24.4215149840605
2000-01-01 24.8524227671678
2000-02-01 24.0255889542090
2000-03-01 23.7295651532395
2000-04-01 23.9131148640033
2000-05-01 23.8836044378258
2000-06-01 24.0995670787461
2000-07-01 24.0958175369778
2000-08-01 23.8545838586837
2000-09-01 23.8565753873583
2000-10-01 21.4410420929036
2000-11-01 22.2487933361038
2000-12-01 22.1000443693441
2001-01-01 21.9800191946399
2001-02-01 22.1005594615803
2001-03-01 19.7213721428790
2001-04-01 21.4098817133144
2001-05-01 22.2362968706407
2001-06-01 21.6731573132958
2001-07-01 21.6060912361179
2001-08-01 21.1659295675508
2001-09-01 18.4182139034709
2001-10-01 20.3745288143425
2001-11-01 21.4952535556687
2001-12-01 21.5712908975611
2002-01-01 21.0017915239501
2002-02-01 20.4682927801969
2002-03-01 20.7499019266520
2002-04-01 20.1691207958640
2002-05-01 19.3993497822044
2002-06-01 18.1122606516339
2002-07-01 16.1427558386424
2002-08-01 16.5998982014364
2002-09-01 15.7178472432077
2002-10-01 15.7758124045756
2002-11-01 16.0232602624122
2002-12-01 16.1214994318098
2003-01-01 16.4824698708600
2003-02-01 15.3421065680945
2003-03-01 15.7071724109081
2003-04-01 15.6796728500434
2003-05-01 16.5637852909061
2003-06-01 17.6909926511214
2003-07-01 17.2749947028794
2003-08-01 16.9374674060014
2003-09-01 17.4143520377129
2003-10-01 17.5055024483919
2003-11-01 17.1017666689584
2003-12-01 17.4299196211811
2004-01-01 18.0966656554652
2004-02-01 18.0921393153315
2004-03-01 17.3975908526079
2004-04-01 17.1059407678062
2004-05-01 15.9759396712240
2004-06-01 16.4112064237897
2004-07-01 15.9264261167857
2004-08-01 15.5140446712195
2004-09-01 15.7701948964300
2004-10-01 15.4842476577299
2004-11-01 16.1684935214670
2004-12-01 16.3213956962421
2005-01-01 15.9518142126453
2005-02-01 16.1662969568544
2005-03-01 15.6432295065534
2005-04-01 15.3024404778722
2005-05-01 15.2772492971762
2005-06-01 15.4143339294562
2005-07-01 15.4071892725404
2005-08-01 15.1376219514918
2005-09-01 14.9539231921628
2005-10-01 14.3352217875791
2005-11-01 14.6103020109322
2005-12-01 14.9788317527463
2006-01-01 14.9036136488607
2006-02-01 14.9322906372015
2006-03-01 15.0622206343863
2006-04-01 14.9922158568980
2006-05-01 14.2956520270790
2006-06-01 13.6920412774534
2006-07-01 13.9018656622377
2006-08-01 14.1250561969898
2006-09-01 14.2612911445694
2006-10-01 14.6542040923097
2006-11-01 14.8070524198371
2006-12-01 14.8246715656549
2007-01-01 15.0136351345782
2007-02-01 15.3892947314649
2007-03-01 14.5559652362442
2007-04-01 15.3150548160842
2007-05-01 15.5081074029821
2007-06-01 15.2972075726326
2007-07-01 15.4096842090421
2007-08-01 13.8716348166020
2007-09-01 15.0078786405010
2007-10-01 15.0147178674359
2007-11-01 14.3219244498574
2007-12-01 14.1969321826872
2008-01-01 13.4918915319416
2008-02-01 13.6770449749573
2008-03-01 13.0897547032142
2008-04-01 13.8053644963333
2008-05-01 14.3036525519596
2008-06-01 13.5080907651354
2008-07-01 12.5966395499155
2008-08-01 13.2893321467503
2008-09-01 12.0093578073256
2008-10-01 9.9318329213557
2008-11-01 9.7367465570831
2008-12-01 11.8730480320341
2009-01-01 11.4801309882739
2009-02-01 12.4581659513670
2009-03-01 12.4236915485468
2009-04-01 13.5116428176185
2009-05-01 14.6566754241186
2009-06-01 14.7265105693616
2009-07-01 14.7961580116896
2009-08-01 15.2017579149890
2009-09-01 15.9111503050052
2009-10-01 15.8536049171995
2009-11-01 15.1214375656104
2009-12-01 14.8891212062393
2010-01-01 14.8025979666784
2010-02-01 13.8091414998773
2010-03-01 14.4371052248703
2010-04-01 14.8231570236257
2010-05-01 12.9864828391494
2010-06-01 12.8167461676147
2010-07-01 12.4947046545179
2010-08-01 12.1003667402263
2010-09-01 12.3539276932622
2010-10-01 12.8366964759288
2010-11-01 12.5672398714282
2010-12-01 13.0317030449426
2011-01-01 13.2143960591698
2011-02-01 13.7053872409754
2011-03-01 12.6071998036253
2011-04-01 12.9702091001044
2011-05-01 12.8954180988548
2011-06-01 12.0666989300472
2011-07-01 12.6376440204923
2011-08-01 11.2820672894418
2011-09-01 11.2423592676524
2011-10-01 11.4984973126867
2011-11-01 11.6743764756942
2011-12-01 11.4047421189985
2012-01-01 12.3284610785806
2012-02-01 12.6339190258947
2012-03-01 12.9633528407449
2012-04-01 12.6564970125371
2012-05-01 12.0117862446820
2012-06-01 11.8910142644773
2012-07-01 12.5919771646056
2012-08-01 12.9173911712853
2012-09-01 13.3366589345093
2012-10-01 13.2080657632062
2012-11-01 12.1866166585069
2012-12-01 12.8556281783628
2013-01-01 13.1194077811375
2013-02-01 13.5304859215612
2013-03-01 13.7170526639079
2013-04-01 13.5910511828577
2013-05-01 14.4775023979513
2013-06-01 14.1017245235448
2013-07-01 14.5078041217903
2013-08-01 14.5798854005687
2013-09-01 14.8364575387916
2013-10-01 14.7113422962906
2013-11-01 15.0316866360930
2013-12-01 15.1988757168877
2014-01-01 15.4248175864551
2014-02-01 15.4338393754973
2014-03-01 15.6027065746791
2014-04-01 15.4957603050171
2014-05-01 15.4501929377274
2014-06-01 15.8287425554734
2014-07-01 15.9659101689999
2014-08-01 15.5474166716045
2014-09-01 15.8920957223448
2014-10-01 14.7599887576360
2014-11-01 16.1899130221622
2014-12-01 16.1131035842842
2015-01-01 16.2283076849354
2015-02-01 17.3507177718087
2015-03-01 17.2720142982500
2015-04-01 17.2856618571758
2015-05-01 17.0892184592933
2015-06-01 16.9590785982327
2015-07-01 16.9774450741791
2015-08-01 16.7533674541663
2015-09-01 16.0927541868382
2015-10-01 16.1399198814842
2015-11-01 16.7966149570643
2015-12-01 16.6871911987418
2016-01-01 15.2963724320877
2016-02-01 15.9109375981050
2016-03-01 16.7096594993403
2016-04-01 17.0917911605184
2016-05-01 16.6743988424736
2016-06-01 16.7458135049560
2016-07-01 17.3983444287421
2016-08-01 17.5193242795995
2016-09-01 16.9184989610450
2016-10-01 16.8904141860746
2016-11-01 16.9469515309043
2016-12-01 17.3279856476856
2017-01-01 17.2756616617434
2017-02-01 17.9103480024804
2017-03-01 18.0366846463876
2017-04-01 17.5409558534353
2017-05-01 17.4949360001073
2017-06-01 17.9097418837352
2017-07-01 18.2286600460627
2017-08-01 18.0945478475706
2017-09-01 18.1818373629954
2017-10-01 18.4437240185425
2017-11-01 18.1457879102924
2017-12-01 18.6376692915424
2018-01-01 18.7262484885268
2018-02-01 17.2803988036018
2018-03-01 17.3747047772781
2018-04-01 16.9213576865824
2018-05-01 16.6826816938149
2018-06-01 16.8409652987132
2018-07-01 17.0294750151743
2018-08-01 16.8204268095450
2018-09-01 17.2089760095866
2018-10-01 16.4932581451517
2018-11-01 15.7182948940772
2018-12-01 14.6494181498620
2019-01-01 15.4545056397489
2019-02-01 16.3429455334446
2019-03-01 16.6014790238239
2019-04-01 17.0782994682097
2019-05-01 16.6613495040966
2019-06-01 17.0282970780038
2019-07-01 17.4493702847224
2019-08-01 16.5422933240280
2019-09-01 17.4027941522372
2019-10-01 17.3126802778573
2019-11-01 17.8327729256194
2019-12-01 18.2514893671885
2020-01-01 18.7318433855344
2020-02-01 19.2709514596588
2020-03-01 14.1255861110428
2020-04-01 18.9302812691237
2020-05-01 20.5186351556240
2020-06-01 22.3998783273015
2020-07-01 23.0964175619734
2020-08-01 23.0978354058033
2020-09-01 22.6400443011802
2020-10-01 22.8106531500594
2020-11-01 22.2430885768087
2020-12-01 22.5579907811605
2021-01-01 23.0474493328223
2021-02-01 22.7579449513680
2021-03-01 22.4526301518681
2021-04-01 22.6454310611863
2021-05-01 21.3305491808641
2021-06-01 21.5963588323736
2021-07-01 22.1795072897431
2021-08-01 21.4373170710150
2021-09-01 21.6306098396725
2021-10-01 20.8064613602203
2021-11-01 21.8409008986592
2021-12-01 21.6016861564222
2022-01-01 20.5507579015692
2022-02-01 19.9604191188382
2022-03-01 19.1290110516015
2022-04-01 19.3246377044504
2022-05-01 16.8647924579843
2022-06-01 16.1620783346285
2022-07-01 16.3363668462096
2022-08-01 18.6068020769167
2022-09-01 17.1123905624570
2022-10-01 16.1646032750192
2022-11-01 17.5808992672092
2022-12-01 17.6433402431891
2023-01-01 17.4916138057654
2023-02-01 18.6618155856315
2023-03-01 17.4155807384435
2023-04-01 18.5735193903040
2023-05-01 18.4147376085252
2023-06-01 19.1935698596523
2023-07-01 20.1600647215234
2023-08-01 19.1070901189196
2023-09-01 19.1319115027220
2023-10-01 18.3089857899012
2023-11-01 18.8824473217250
2023-12-01 19.4746505860349
2024-01-01 19.5766519421527
2024-02-01 20.4711457297532
2024-03-01 20.8097539359783

Note: The figure shows the aggregate forward price-to-earnings ratio of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 firms, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. The median value is 15.64 ratio.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes

Return to text
Figure 1.5. An estimate of the equity premium fell further below its historical median

Percentage points

Date Spread
1991-10-01 3.31273360602933
1991-11-01 3.29699872273821
1991-12-01 3.80530647491709
1992-01-01 2.88087560859424
1992-02-01 2.79500613189168
1992-03-01 2.73271320411514
1992-04-01 3.00402419565771
1992-05-01 3.14273499083780
1992-06-01 3.59381579580855
1992-07-01 3.57441077942668
1992-08-01 3.78322211639405
1992-09-01 3.92844126543843
1992-10-01 3.83837994024281
1992-11-01 3.38410059432048
1992-12-01 3.38594812094295
1993-01-01 3.48979985098156
1993-02-01 3.80604430773826
1993-03-01 3.87431938653222
1993-04-01 4.09323900090521
1993-05-01 4.22507816087965
1993-06-01 4.40833920366495
1993-07-01 4.33092569202072
1993-08-01 4.35459239050371
1993-09-01 4.64893768153862
1993-10-01 4.76786197487311
1993-11-01 4.38570124549905
1993-12-01 4.44619951245064
1994-01-01 4.35771664620068
1994-02-01 4.18053157149611
1994-03-01 3.79520399479644
1994-04-01 3.82661108131632
1994-05-01 3.67645808628890
1994-06-01 3.73637364017627
1994-07-01 3.79914900236774
1994-08-01 3.75039104536865
1994-09-01 3.58191503577891
1994-10-01 3.43766115105621
1994-11-01 3.46549945388495
1994-12-01 3.88647761941905
1995-01-01 3.54204716950000
1995-02-01 3.76072369490000
1995-03-01 3.98380191687977
1995-04-01 4.09008593725384
1995-05-01 4.38150648807950
1995-06-01 4.72173706003636
1995-07-01 4.32248373797545
1995-08-01 4.08471670689548
1995-09-01 4.18051167854780
1995-10-01 4.11660466303124
1995-11-01 4.21786811235324
1995-12-01 4.15822487614570
1996-01-01 4.36917718179476
1996-02-01 3.64650168723885
1996-03-01 3.34520172741229
1996-04-01 3.09553806956768
1996-05-01 2.74435208651186
1996-06-01 2.80571915039495
1996-07-01 3.03367549670268
1996-08-01 3.03045505118195
1996-09-01 2.65485765170050
1996-10-01 2.80366510454795
1996-11-01 2.94408770344958
1996-12-01 2.95249485862662
1997-01-01 2.45611642345990
1997-02-01 2.28068148909389
1997-03-01 2.22102337752530
1997-04-01 2.11242439348368
1997-05-01 1.81476541447943
1997-06-01 1.69470305149229
1997-07-01 1.87930506209582
1997-08-01 1.93189680568010
1997-09-01 1.93814937699938
1997-10-01 1.68115369847904
1997-11-01 2.02955669837511
1997-12-01 2.04433911512786
1998-01-01 2.29398570628390
1998-02-01 1.77877660623000
1998-03-01 1.46024535242118
1998-04-01 1.26821891956067
1998-05-01 1.28896554521285
1998-06-01 1.50267497322118
1998-07-01 1.27850512820859
1998-08-01 1.75729744847876
1998-09-01 2.48073621404038
1998-10-01 2.85911502572590
1998-11-01 1.96121045955216
1998-12-01 2.04259786059159
1999-01-01 1.44202973797905
1999-02-01 1.20167970179689
1999-03-01 0.75735862587665
1999-04-01 1.00753148545467
1999-05-01 0.71484515676079
1999-06-01 0.43059349997514
1999-07-01 0.32929105701205
1999-08-01 0.39672714054723
1999-09-01 0.45658272396905
1999-10-01 0.42676889711270
1999-11-01 0.24395845486010
1999-12-01 0.02639119425673
2000-01-01 -0.30365587786610
2000-02-01 -0.04289460642380
2000-03-01 0.21041464355735
2000-04-01 0.41997468193579
2000-05-01 0.01550278834496
2000-06-01 0.31904592154787
2000-07-01 0.41285312029425
2000-08-01 0.63447538642230
2000-09-01 0.63178292466575
2000-10-01 1.21193596870590
2000-11-01 1.10180791880762
2000-12-01 1.56976264679645
2001-01-01 1.66629199654638
2001-02-01 1.67381288985751
2001-03-01 2.39242353105568
2001-04-01 1.77586336655280
2001-05-01 1.39938811234650
2001-06-01 1.60688214797500
2001-07-01 1.68443782222390
2001-08-01 1.98408114613557
2001-09-01 2.88100811330000
2001-10-01 2.60128896300000
2001-11-01 2.26148483070000
2001-12-01 1.78245617610000
2002-01-01 1.93744617434762
2002-02-01 2.14866320993684
2002-03-01 1.71980988650000
2002-04-01 1.96894705347273
2002-05-01 2.25562103680909
2002-06-01 2.86237195840000
2002-07-01 3.79321550403636
2002-08-01 3.98911060092727
2002-09-01 4.69808941840000
2002-10-01 4.53639958778182
2002-11-01 4.36581136032632
2002-12-01 4.34362078092381
2003-01-01 4.26649474824286
2003-02-01 4.88012026351579
2003-03-01 4.82859445257619
2003-04-01 4.71403170444762
2003-05-01 4.79375781839048
2003-06-01 4.64612739473333
2003-07-01 4.15316378660000
2003-08-01 3.76121325934286
2003-09-01 3.79658041889048
2003-10-01 3.76668047029091
2003-11-01 3.89548243683333
2003-12-01 3.82561565585454
2004-01-01 3.74574984460000
2004-02-01 3.80820442936316
2004-03-01 4.28611792757391
2004-04-01 3.84932702700476
2004-05-01 3.88405272050000
2004-06-01 3.70944962535238
2004-07-01 4.13812018384762
2004-08-01 4.51225415668182
2004-09-01 4.57717572270000
2004-10-01 4.72090621950000
2004-11-01 4.36300811200000
2004-12-01 4.28526336553637
2005-01-01 4.40372443070000
2005-02-01 4.38938215331053
2005-03-01 4.25562825903636
2005-04-01 4.61229105468571
2005-05-01 4.82372858914762
2005-06-01 4.91668630451818
2005-07-01 4.74499150620000
2005-08-01 4.77060525838696
2005-09-01 4.90644644283810
2005-10-01 4.91905010280000
2005-11-01 4.68444048190000
2005-12-01 4.60452616743809
2006-01-01 4.70720209420000
2006-02-01 4.53774353992105
2006-03-01 4.31580989459565
2006-04-01 4.09687018736316
2006-05-01 4.30864298270909
2006-06-01 4.62194016562727
2006-07-01 4.54361912020000
2006-08-01 4.63647002501304
2006-09-01 4.71392283380000
2006-10-01 4.52458505930476
2006-11-01 4.59220050006190
2006-12-01 4.61155200390000
2007-01-01 4.18094068192857
2007-02-01 4.04898673499474
2007-03-01 4.57073109814545
2007-04-01 4.15512282580000
2007-05-01 4.03262646163636
2007-06-01 3.76252653068571
2007-07-01 3.80620660468095
2007-08-01 4.81124259312174
2007-09-01 4.43419846584737
2007-10-01 4.42785453147273
2007-11-01 5.08239187920000
2007-12-01 5.17052028280000
2008-01-01 5.99203536257619
2008-02-01 5.86504588650000
2008-03-01 6.40619756380000
2008-04-01 5.85831101896573
2008-05-01 5.40139743522908
2008-06-01 5.59578018003047
2008-07-01 6.25073877530653
2008-08-01 5.96281355298711
2008-09-01 6.93233993659366
2008-10-01 8.31130310569268
2008-11-01 8.73694325922563
2008-12-01 7.98793706866921
2009-01-01 8.05026199962808
2009-02-01 7.03955844934376
2009-03-01 7.20330101039335
2009-04-01 6.64692929843963
2009-05-01 5.70115467102508
2009-06-01 5.23573854134012
2009-07-01 5.38615213281467
2009-08-01 5.19760561578080
2009-09-01 5.10493879971545
2009-10-01 4.93635649371990
2009-11-01 5.23603313324910
2009-12-01 5.19793131028101
2010-01-01 5.25126037081086
2010-02-01 5.78222714141631
2010-03-01 5.46137893077852
2010-04-01 5.20976942213204
2010-05-01 6.54470934320297
2010-06-01 6.84807414724505
2010-07-01 7.15986189376431
2010-08-01 7.77083502709029
2010-09-01 7.63594879885532
2010-10-01 7.35420624684428
2010-11-01 7.32815170766603
2010-12-01 6.48256687530822
2011-01-01 6.39738437486077
2011-02-01 5.95791145490971
2011-03-01 6.74344074118824
2011-04-01 6.57630094126917
2011-05-01 6.91056378722141
2011-06-01 7.61427520271775
2011-07-01 7.23227729143923
2011-08-01 8.89604554062920
2011-09-01 9.25269677158387
2011-10-01 8.97853856346270
2011-11-01 9.01086796618091
2011-12-01 9.25563482344572
2012-01-01 8.41924748064734
2012-02-01 8.23245532886021
2012-03-01 7.81317644954052
2012-04-01 8.31424229074018
2012-05-01 9.00772920285453
2012-06-01 9.27444963755412
2012-07-01 8.77469315152172
2012-08-01 8.40111865133512
2012-09-01 8.13491928953440
2012-10-01 8.14225987218375
2012-11-01 8.87002795169727
2012-12-01 8.37785417060164
2013-01-01 8.01845717861252
2013-02-01 7.70915969025980
2013-03-01 7.63470082061444
2013-04-01 7.92010987135572
2013-05-01 7.28370057919307
2013-06-01 7.06434128018767
2013-07-01 6.48589645108104
2013-08-01 6.27893719082149
2013-09-01 6.10433841568176
2013-10-01 6.44603988696323
2013-11-01 6.19134496395419
2013-12-01 5.93052925871541
2014-01-01 5.88723978847488
2014-02-01 6.02883234772136
2014-03-01 5.95024442748786
2014-04-01 5.96211142807208
2014-05-01 6.13959204094832
2014-06-01 5.93624028517505
2014-07-01 5.89167660308481
2014-08-01 6.17461767512176
2014-09-01 5.91837917469010
2014-10-01 6.62722294600448
2014-11-01 6.00232430667366
2014-12-01 6.16300629487464
2015-01-01 6.33914197358748
2015-02-01 5.82575558956909
2015-03-01 5.79430811440289
2015-04-01 5.93152787082074
2015-05-01 5.72107765524613
2015-06-01 5.60465586411566
2015-07-01 5.68055868766695
2015-08-01 5.91608257620709
2015-09-01 6.14822911006009
2015-10-01 6.23911760913792
2015-11-01 5.77897527903824
2015-12-01 5.84004755087105
2016-01-01 6.51901880124640
2016-02-01 6.56592473127415
2016-03-01 6.15596241383602
2016-04-01 6.21064281396073
2016-05-01 6.34820817661512
2016-06-01 6.49516908241596
2016-07-01 6.37344831257276
2016-08-01 6.27256530526429
2016-09-01 6.39658031967359
2016-10-01 6.34837792694142
2016-11-01 5.92836626912045
2016-12-01 5.43307790161085
2017-01-01 5.61319523576650
2017-02-01 5.41908022520846
2017-03-01 5.32074745817305
2017-04-01 5.66908571735205
2017-05-01 5.67304430111075
2017-06-01 5.67325336659448
2017-07-01 5.39381674359457
2017-08-01 5.54217441592142
2017-09-01 5.53032418808696
2017-10-01 5.25440807165882
2017-11-01 5.34309699337217
2017-12-01 5.14398774200060
2018-01-01 4.99719313842924
2018-02-01 5.15465085116546
2018-03-01 5.15180302246192
2018-04-01 5.34330557232825
2018-05-01 5.30707649450116
2018-06-01 5.31191142986694
2018-07-01 5.17199544208200
2018-08-01 5.25015668283996
2018-09-01 5.00432624946363
2018-10-01 5.11552885845841
2018-11-01 5.44700323586154
2018-12-01 6.20369390200553
2019-01-01 5.96509539016428
2019-02-01 5.64522694771343
2019-03-01 5.64826923528041
2019-04-01 5.51559346621167
2019-05-01 5.79232389487430
2019-06-01 5.98600284018227
2019-07-01 5.87016584068618
2019-08-01 6.60857467479441
2019-09-01 6.23046869112807
2019-10-01 6.26245858696093
2019-11-01 5.97654232058493
2019-12-01 5.78986205825025
2020-01-01 5.76310289027919
2020-02-01 5.87197843114315
2020-03-01 8.33935680065579
2020-04-01 6.69399883560881
2020-05-01 6.29921850840407
2020-06-01 5.84818269718432
2020-07-01 5.73113943487897
2020-08-01 5.71124811000923
2020-09-01 5.77364772847924
2020-10-01 5.72074036088723
2020-11-01 5.74858905341579
2020-12-01 5.62543255946364
2021-01-01 5.46223281993684
2021-02-01 5.32179617638947
2021-03-01 4.98259510564348
2021-04-01 5.02729726404545
2021-05-01 5.31122183210000
2021-06-01 5.35597837161818
2021-07-01 5.59175214648571
2021-08-01 5.78854010982727
2021-09-01 5.66051625813810
2021-10-01 5.73854929880000
2021-11-01 5.52435071320000
2021-12-01 5.65468189236364
2022-01-01 5.52833558640000
2022-02-01 5.50530957904210
2022-03-01 5.54276178190000
2022-04-01 5.16357625670000
2022-05-01 5.75143168461905
2022-06-01 5.74772782330476
2022-07-01 5.93168209720000
2022-08-01 5.21508300712609
2022-09-01 5.03559984338095
2022-10-01 5.03882159030000
2022-11-01 4.63836618180000
2022-12-01 4.95573718627619
2023-01-01 4.52171537630000
2023-02-01 3.93121964032632
2023-03-01 4.36121958930870
2023-04-01 4.21641923910000
2023-05-01 4.14293306540000
2023-06-01 3.75179249061429
2023-07-01 3.39880653580000
2023-08-01 3.40953321844348
2023-09-01 3.16524925380000
2023-10-01 2.94532279432381
2023-11-01 3.08605225632857
2023-12-01 3.43509031830000
2024-01-01 3.23239242256667
2024-02-01 2.85228943560000
2024-03-01 2.79369884890000
   
Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of Standard & Poor's 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. The median value is 4.71 percentage points.  
Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes  

Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of Standard & Poor's 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. The median value is 4.71 percentage points.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.refinitiv.com/en/financial-data/company-data/institutional-brokers-estimate-system-ibes

Return to text
Figure 1.6. Volatility in equity markets decreased to levels slightly below the historical median

Percent

Date Option-implied volatility Realized volatility
1996-01-01 13.47363636 11.66238567
1996-02-01 15.033 11.493454
1996-03-01 17.76238095 14.57607113
1996-04-01 16.21222222 12.25491833
1996-05-01 16.14636364 11.31949173
1996-06-01 16.50352941 11.11662373
1996-07-01 17.97863636 15.04312882
1996-08-01 15.76045455 13.43977424
1996-09-01 16.578 11.18767424
1996-10-01 16.28636364 9.865934506
1996-11-01 15.997 10.26790981
1996-12-01 19.26095238 13.43262124
1997-01-01 19.61666667 14.60356121
1997-02-01 20.13947368 14.83327757
1997-03-01 20.17 14.64008525
1997-04-01 19.6955 17.17847815
1997-05-01 19.9247619 16.3777271
1997-06-01 20.19428571 15.00571023
1997-07-01 20.50857143 16.1724627
1997-08-01 23.0847619 18.12811184
1997-09-01 23.79947368 18.78124882
1997-10-01 23.87086957 18.83043988
1997-11-01 31.98421053 24.02649591
1997-12-01 26.27636364 18.53559882
1998-01-01 23.8665 17.91884635
1998-02-01 19.99894737 15.37681766
1998-03-01 20.03238095 12.6826908
1998-04-01 22.16210526 13.01640427
1998-05-01 20.874 13.9546656
1998-06-01 21.66272727 15.60755812
1998-07-01 20.23263158 14.62609381
1998-08-01 31.58809524 22.82230654
1998-09-01 38.132 34.25904836
1998-10-01 36.60818182 33.06170862
1998-11-01 26.223 23.16985669
1998-12-01 25.47909091 18.96371759
1999-01-01 27.96888889 19.52968616
1999-02-01 28.82263158 21.74546356
1999-03-01 25.30956522 20.66849313
1999-04-01 23.47857143 19.87385206
1999-05-01 26.2045 20.97133777
1999-06-01 23.54571429 19.27527892
1999-07-01 21.04904762 16.5598463
1999-08-01 24.32363636 17.7571731
1999-09-01 24.54142857 18.98236303
1999-10-01 24.02142857 20.92429409
1999-11-01 21.81809524 19.26973859
1999-12-01 22.15909091 16.90624646
2000-01-01 23.202 19.26505908
2000-02-01 23.5955 21.87584793
2000-03-01 22.73409091 24.40714366
2000-04-01 27.16421053 32.68535553
2000-05-01 26.37318182 28.67861002
2000-06-01 21.54 22.90813762
2000-07-01 19.893 17.99262622
2000-08-01 18.08869565 16.2227839
2000-09-01 19.6875 15.22018735
2000-10-01 25.2 23.37530335
2000-11-01 26.38285714 24.82952693
2000-12-01 26.5305 25.25826706
2001-01-01 24.91857143 27.37844257
2001-02-01 23.41157895 21.56441621
2001-03-01 28.5355 26.82836952
2001-04-01 28.134 28.26803323
2001-05-01 22.94409091 21.92374673
2001-06-01 20.94047619 18.08082817
2001-07-01 22.31619048 17.41799553
2001-08-01 21.86173913 16.98285386
2001-09-01 35.06533333 25.3550296
2001-10-01 32.61227273 27.43469893
2001-11-01 26.63095238 23.69637418
2001-12-01 23.72 18.80579075
2002-01-01 22.25285714 16.08109824
2002-02-01 22.87578947 19.01884182
2002-03-01 18.985 18.15715124
2002-04-01 19.90045455 16.35346642
2002-05-01 20.08772727 17.46977866
2002-06-01 25.271 21.14378276
2002-07-01 34.04954545 33.80175163
2002-08-01 33.74272727 37.99414927
2002-09-01 37.6475 31.14771787
2002-10-01 35.42954545 35.10444362
2002-11-01 28.175 29.82821716
2002-12-01 28.21047619 23.97816708
2003-01-01 27.50631579 21.46120427
2003-02-01 32.21842105 23.25760586
2003-03-01 30.63428571 24.01998943
2003-04-01 23.99190476 22.7447965
2003-05-01 20.23952381 19.40564122
2003-06-01 20.36238095 17.88553537
2003-07-01 19.16136364 17.95752962
2003-08-01 19.27428571 17.44715697
2003-09-01 19.53238095 14.63375777
2003-10-01 18.02347826 14.40427874
2003-11-01 17.40105263 13.1539275
2003-12-01 16.82636364 11.90607996
2004-01-01 15.95333333 11.13695581
2004-02-01 15.99842105 12.4212298
2004-03-01 17.6873913 13.11371511
2004-04-01 15.69857143 13.22640576
2004-05-01 17.705 15.30051799
2004-06-01 15.35714286 12.47310501
2004-07-01 15.50238095 11.56248462
2004-08-01 16.68409091 12.51448645
2004-09-01 14.08095238 10.51858841
2004-10-01 14.97 10.54510546
2004-11-01 13.57714286 11.21646259
2004-12-01 12.45954545 10.53785301
2005-01-01 13.438 10.68655987
2005-02-01 11.70894737 9.973891732
2005-03-01 13.12636364 10.45593389
2005-04-01 14.45904762 11.95581953
2005-05-01 13.96761905 13.13046261
2005-06-01 11.86863636 10.88098481
2005-07-01 11.049 10.29641372
2005-08-01 12.95130435 9.669158892
2005-09-01 12.62809524 10.33237682
2005-10-01 14.93761905 12.93804291
2005-11-01 12.14761905 11.98919343
2005-12-01 11.26 9.864184007
2006-01-01 12.036 9.747170922
2006-02-01 12.47105263 10.39304463
2006-03-01 11.69391304 9.672960582
2006-04-01 11.84736842 10.17810397
2006-05-01 14.45454545 11.87971029
2006-06-01 16.91863636 15.18586579
2006-07-01 15.326 13.81704596
2006-08-01 13.35173913 12.26214918
2006-09-01 12.1845 9.579982636
2006-10-01 11.30636364 8.872536834
2006-11-01 10.81761905 9.050503995
2006-12-01 10.9645 9.478303191
2007-01-01 11.0425 9.451635177
2007-02-01 11.15526316 9.092884881
2007-03-01 15.16272727 14.33500604
2007-04-01 12.933 11.40986817
2007-05-01 13.29772727 9.915917076
2007-06-01 14.94761905 11.41527857
2007-07-01 17.27333333 13.52112771
2007-08-01 25.02608696 23.43967274
2007-09-01 22.19894737 19.74790468
2007-10-01 19.11565217 15.49916803
2007-11-01 25.58238095 21.5172242
2007-12-01 21.651 21.00090665
2008-01-01 25.81619048 25.15092462
2008-02-01 25.456 27.95554214
2008-03-01 27.1035 26.73760223
2008-04-01 21.56272727 21.38314435
2008-05-01 18.30333333 16.81396978
2008-06-01 22.11047619 17.3942484
2008-07-01 24.32136364 23.06561682
2008-08-01 20.69571429 20.37973963
2008-09-01 30.23857143 30.12265324
2008-10-01 61.1773913 66.41476883
2008-11-01 62.66894737 72.36668294
2008-12-01 52.405 61.64360141
2009-01-01 44.683 43.43711506
2009-02-01 45.57052632 40.50466135
2009-03-01 44.79545455 42.74381681
2009-04-01 38.06380952 35.22168027
2009-05-01 31.978 29.40710016
2009-06-01 29.14045455 25.09971479
2009-07-01 26.16272727 21.5339721
2009-08-01 25.33714286 19.33639954
2009-09-01 24.92666667 17.49738284
2009-10-01 24.25227273 17.58189606
2009-11-01 23.789 19.49749008
2009-12-01 21.23954545 15.27652428
2010-01-01 20.64315789 12.84841613
2010-02-01 22.54 17.93159554
2010-03-01 17.7673913 14.13967574
2010-04-01 17.42428571 12.49505603
2010-05-01 31.9295 27.61427029
2010-06-01 29.91636364 27.00125195
2010-07-01 25.5652381 23.03517119
2010-08-01 24.74590909 18.90467759
2010-09-01 22.51761905 16.84679411
2010-10-01 20.37333333 14.89887056
2010-11-01 20.09571429 13.94727549
2010-12-01 17.56954545 11.84950309
2011-01-01 17.3155 9.743155088
2011-02-01 17.43 10.63515465
2011-03-01 20.72347826 14.31237781
2011-04-01 16.244 12.41946126
2011-05-01 16.91142857 12.36751059
2011-06-01 19.15318182 13.5669977
2011-07-01 19.2275 13.78622192
2011-08-01 35.02913043 31.738725
2011-09-01 36.53 30.9649038
2011-10-01 32.82904762 30.17709197
2011-11-01 31.94190476 25.02953474
2011-12-01 25.04761905 20.63047671
2012-01-01 20.228 15.47977278
2012-02-01 18.4205 12.41739669
2012-03-01 16.16727273 10.90793753
2012-04-01 17.823 11.50375383
2012-05-01 21.00181818 13.72923073
2012-06-01 21.13095238 15.57652701
2012-07-01 17.5652381 14.80977883
2012-08-01 15.68956522 13.14136912
2012-09-01 15.28473684 10.98327091
2012-10-01 16.27619048 11.27449192
2012-11-01 16.70190476 13.81901006
2012-12-01 17.307 12.88750836
2013-01-01 13.5052381 11.75424522
2013-02-01 14.07263158 9.648772095
2013-03-01 13.0315 10.13832124
2013-04-01 13.96727273 11.45569474
2013-05-01 13.49363636 11.61553946
2013-06-01 17.2715 14.50887198
2013-07-01 13.97454545 13.49045667
2013-08-01 14.21 10.40463347
2013-09-01 14.692 10.69828595
2013-10-01 15.40782609 11.21423391
2013-11-01 12.924 9.893396379
2013-12-01 14.19238095 9.503114701
2014-01-01 14.24095238 9.338864052
2014-02-01 15.47 11.77395183
2014-03-01 14.83666667 11.6434045
2014-04-01 14.19809524 12.2070991
2014-05-01 12.4752381 10.98734873
2014-06-01 11.54142857 8.258735318
2014-07-01 12.29636364 7.98397404
2014-08-01 13.49190476 9.824445597
2014-09-01 13.46666667 8.81551279
2014-10-01 18.05869565 15.81532834
2014-11-01 13.41315789 13.39225976
2014-12-01 16.29227273 12.67313385
2015-01-01 19.1195 15.75383522
2015-02-01 15.90421053 15.05512141
2015-03-01 14.81272727 11.90381795
2015-04-01 13.4947619 11.36081023
2015-05-01 13.3385 10.86825684
2015-06-01 14.33954545 10.18163004
2015-07-01 14.35272727 11.1968485
2015-08-01 19.42809524 17.1517167
2015-09-01 24.37714286 26.92039889
2015-10-01 16.78954545 19.55186774
2015-11-01 16.21 14.11959242
2015-12-01 18.02545455 14.75934777
2016-01-01 23.71789474 20.97195789
2016-02-01 22.517 23.78344769
2016-03-01 15.84909091 17.43656587
2016-04-01 14.30047619 12.5645374
2016-05-01 14.85285714 11.45319205
2016-06-01 17.77454545 11.11906531
2016-07-01 13.1585 11.534784
2016-08-01 12.39956522 8.422804092
2016-09-01 14.21952381 9.498799383
2016-10-01 14.5852381 9.8619426
2016-11-01 15.23619048 10.74371613
2016-12-01 12.47238095 9.007377664
2017-01-01 11.6085 8.066059822
2017-02-01 11.53052632 7.166251708
2017-03-01 11.89782609 7.203704107
2017-04-01 13.13631579 8.490547815
2017-05-01 10.86227273 7.244986177
2017-06-01 10.51363636 7.010816564
2017-07-01 10.2645 7.117782499
2017-08-01 11.97565217 6.905470645
2017-09-01 10.438 6.538899662
2017-10-01 10.12545455 5.272001869
2017-11-01 10.54047619 5.842689559
2017-12-01 10.2645 7.232389142
2018-01-01 11.06238095 6.772977813
2018-02-01 22.46473684 20.56510234
2018-03-01 19.02380952 19.25496499
2018-04-01 18.26761905 19.57384007
2018-05-01 14.12454545 14.80530056
2018-06-01 13.67809524 11.04149947
2018-07-01 13.14761905 10.02508051
2018-08-01 12.54695652 8.267995236
2018-09-01 12.91052632 8.195684491
2018-10-01 19.35217391 14.67247947
2018-11-01 19.38904762 20.33367997
2018-12-01 24.95315789 24.22344362
2019-01-01 19.57238095 24.80449517
2019-02-01 15.23473684 16.15479904
2019-03-01 14.4852381 12.53617184
2019-04-01 12.94904762 10.41723909
2019-05-01 16.72181818 11.95670524
2019-06-01 15.836 12.29817202
2019-07-01 13.30590909 9.339660246
2019-08-01 18.97909091 15.50235222
2019-09-01 15.559 13.71700059
2019-10-01 15.46652174 12.93408222
2019-11-01 12.5235 9.150912123
2019-12-01 13.75666667 8.396397103
2020-01-01 13.94095238 7.98081864
2020-02-01 19.62894737 12.23216019
2020-03-01 57.73681818 56.5382721
2020-04-01 41.45380952 53.39105497
2020-05-01 30.897 32.74448108
2020-06-01 31.11954545 25.61551251
2020-07-01 26.84045455 21.49541866
2020-08-01 22.88952381 15.36356757
2020-09-01 27.64761905 20.53446801
2020-10-01 29.43863636 19.58070848
2020-11-01 24.9955 20.03044461
2020-12-01 22.37409091 14.54405218
2021-01-01 24.91 13.95118225
2021-02-01 23.14052632 15.05396
2021-03-01 21.84304348 18.37031421
2021-04-01 17.41619048 13.22659467
2021-05-01 19.7605 12.82061075
2021-06-01 16.95681818 10.59941079
2021-07-01 17.60333333 9.523023623
2021-08-01 17.47272727 8.992107242
2021-09-01 19.8247619 9.902384793
2021-10-01 17.87142857 13.14089044
2021-11-01 18.50047619 10.75320904
2021-12-01 21.35454545 15.78991131
2022-01-01 23.181 17.92177959
2022-02-01 25.74842105 24.05459133
2022-03-01 26.96869565 24.40627562
2022-04-01 24.3735 19.57427917
2022-05-01 29.44571429 27.65705414
2022-06-01 28.1 26.56541939
2022-07-01 24.8685 24.16940944
2022-08-01 22.16956522 18.57859663
2022-09-01 27.40619048 21.36399186
2022-10-01 30.00571429 24.77333285
2022-11-01 23.43619048 23.45804447
2022-12-01 21.78428571 20.06842983
2023-01-01 20.203 18.86650155
2023-02-01 20.06210526 18.01253239
2023-03-01 21.64434783 18.39832428
2023-04-01 17.81789474 14.96340385
2023-05-01 17.64409091 12.84637268
2023-06-01 13.99428571 11.65192445
2023-07-01 13.944 9.794784524
2023-08-01 15.85391304 10.99302718
2023-09-01 15.241 11.22469361
2023-10-01 18.88772727 14.02808809
2023-11-01 14.07714286 12.85109814
2023-12-01 12.7185 10.58824329
2024-01-01 13.3952381 10.14732706
2024-02-01 13.944 10.2334945
2024-03-01 13.7875 10.20468152

Note: Realized volatility is computed from an exponentially weighted moving average of 5-minute daily realized variances with 75 percent of the weight distributed over the past 20 business days. Median refers to the median option-implied volatility.

Source: Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) accessed via Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 1.7. Corporate bond yields fell slightly to levels near their historical medians

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond yields fell slightly to levels near their historical medians." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1997 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 24 percent. The data are monthly and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. It begins at around 9 percent in 1997 and rises gradually to around 13 percent in 2002. It falls to around 8 percent in 2003 and remains there until 2007. The curve rises to 11 in early 2008, before spiking to about 22 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to about 9 percent in 2009 before decreasing more slowly to 7 percent in 2011. The series generally remains around 6 percent through 2020, with local spikes to around 9 in late 2011, early 2016, and early 2020. The series stays around 4 percent in 2021 before rising gradually to about 9 percent by October 2022. The series decreases slightly throughout 2023 before jumping back up to 9 percent and stabilizing at 7 percent for the most recent months. The second line is labeled "Triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. It begins at around 7 percent in 1997, fluctuates between 6 and 9 percent until 2002, and rises to 10 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to around 5 percent in late 2009. It remains between 3 and 5 percent from 2010 to 2019. It has a spike in early 2020 from 2 to 5 percent then decreases back to around 2 percent in October 2020. It hovers at the level through the end of 2021. The series then rises to 6 percent by the end of 2022 and falls back to around 5 percent in early 2023. The series hovers between 5 and 6 percent through the end of the series.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the effective yield of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Return to text
Figure 1.8. Corporate bond spreads narrowed to low levels relative to their historical distributions

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond spreads narrowed to low levels relative to their historical distributions." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are monthly, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 24 percentage points. It begins at around 3 percentage points in 1997 and rises steadily, with local peaks in 1999, late 2000, and mid-2001, to around 10 percentage points by 2002. The series falls to 4 percentage points by the end of 2004 and then declines slowly to around 2 percent until 2007. The series then rises rapidly to its peak in late 2008 of around 20 percentage points. It then falls steeply in 2009 to around 6 percentage points before it falls gradually to 4 percentage points in 2011. In late 2011, the series spikes to 8 percentage points, before falling steadily to around 4 percentage points in 2014. The series rises gradually from 2014 to 2016 to 7 percentage points, then falls to around 4 percentage points again in 2017, remaining there through 2019. In early 2020, the series jumps to almost 9 percentage points then drops to about 5 percentage points in October. It then steadily decreases to about 3 percentage points in April 2021 and remains there until early 2022. The series then begins rising gradually again to around 5 percentage points in October 2022, then decreases slightly to just below 4 percentage points by April 2023. The series shows a slight uptick closer to a value of 4 percentage points in September 2023 and declines to 3 percentage points by the end of the series in March 2024. The second line is labeled "Triple B" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 12 percentage points. It begins at just under 1 percentage point in 1997, rises to around 3.5 percentage points by the end of 2002. The series declines to around 1 percentage point by the start of 2004 and remains there until mid-2007. From there, it rapidly rises to its peak in late 2008 of around 7.7 percentage points. The series then falls steeply in 2009 to around 3 percentage points and declines further to below 2 percentage points in 2011. The series jumps to 3 percentage points in mid-2011 before declining slowly to 1.5 percentage points in 2014. The series then rises gradually to around 3 percentage points in early 2016, then declines to around 1 percentage point by early 2018. The series remains around 1.5 percentage points from 2018 through early 2020 before jumping to almost 4 percentage points in March 2020. The series then decreases to 1 percent by April 2021 and remains there through mid-2022, where it climbs to around 2 percentage points. The value gently declines throughout 2023 and early 2024, ending at 1.1 percentage points in March 2024.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

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Figure 1.9. The excess bond premium fell slightly but remained near the middle of the historical range

Percentage points

Date Excess bond premium
1997-01-01 -0.341378592
1997-02-01 -0.460756757
1997-03-01 -0.486792226
1997-04-01 -0.445170707
1997-05-01 -0.442488534
1997-06-01 -0.544831451
1997-07-01 -0.516571605
1997-08-01 -0.510807348
1997-09-01 -0.562775122
1997-10-01 -0.442270491
1997-11-01 -0.334817257
1997-12-01 -0.402776305
1998-01-01 -0.363434441
1998-02-01 -0.336640585
1998-03-01 -0.385936345
1998-04-01 -0.414648156
1998-05-01 -0.377166149
1998-06-01 -0.340166852
1998-07-01 -0.302268502
1998-08-01 0.094220519
1998-09-01 0.079474952
1998-10-01 0.204564331
1998-11-01 0.188551041
1998-12-01 0.050982652
1999-01-01 0.047250112
1999-02-01 -0.173381439
1999-03-01 -0.163296856
1999-04-01 -0.205292705
1999-05-01 -0.199647096
1999-06-01 -0.139740891
1999-07-01 -0.089152208
1999-08-01 -0.035158469
1999-09-01 0.096426153
1999-10-01 0.110177605
1999-11-01 0.075153326
1999-12-01 -0.153508901
2000-01-01 0.029329571
2000-02-01 0.120434816
2000-03-01 0.387849988
2000-04-01 0.544895095
2000-05-01 0.724647095
2000-06-01 0.762615862
2000-07-01 0.844512228
2000-08-01 0.993876321
2000-09-01 1.105544707
2000-10-01 1.501712004
2000-11-01 1.583742098
2000-12-01 1.579503512
2001-01-01 1.126268676
2001-02-01 1.151416799
2001-03-01 1.086112726
2001-04-01 0.907904999
2001-05-01 0.770532245
2001-06-01 1.004550032
2001-07-01 0.770933709
2001-08-01 0.74446272
2001-09-01 1.212690514
2001-10-01 1.028560618
2001-11-01 -0.069398074
2001-12-01 0.412145841
2002-01-01 0.565986047
2002-02-01 0.767539925
2002-03-01 0.285874074
2002-04-01 0.404525273
2002-05-01 0.496696194
2002-06-01 0.937391263
2002-07-01 1.534052416
2002-08-01 1.431614008
2002-09-01 1.607073755
2002-10-01 1.413196026
2002-11-01 1.027809306
2002-12-01 0.881496888
2003-01-01 0.834158529
2003-02-01 0.628878452
2003-03-01 0.128697183
2003-04-01 0.0309615
2003-05-01 -0.497411447
2003-06-01 -0.406941603
2003-07-01 -1.053190286
2003-08-01 -0.214685268
2003-09-01 -0.556377062
2003-10-01 -0.534010523
2003-11-01 -0.554836891
2003-12-01 -0.532881274
2004-01-01 -0.720377036
2004-02-01 -0.34678349
2004-03-01 -0.530728921
2004-04-01 -0.744727742
2004-05-01 -0.368577262
2004-06-01 -0.386550869
2004-07-01 -0.326583574
2004-08-01 -0.436176339
2004-09-01 -0.5567513
2004-10-01 -0.545452047
2004-11-01 -0.684985694
2004-12-01 -0.732288466
2005-01-01 -0.715548852
2005-02-01 -0.933908363
2005-03-01 -0.638805402
2005-04-01 -0.385857745
2005-05-01 -0.311823826
2005-06-01 -0.459484357
2005-07-01 -0.560881499
2005-08-01 -0.564202533
2005-09-01 -0.473514167
2005-10-01 -0.353162559
2005-11-01 -0.321514038
2005-12-01 -0.291669704
2006-01-01 -0.374242769
2006-02-01 -0.329382151
2006-03-01 -0.413681262
2006-04-01 -0.458258666
2006-05-01 -0.363082849
2006-06-01 -0.377320526
2006-07-01 -0.284106931
2006-08-01 -0.314604491
2006-09-01 -0.36850879
2006-10-01 -0.402633338
2006-11-01 -0.372555231
2006-12-01 -0.498179163
2007-01-01 -0.561538027
2007-02-01 -0.56369032
2007-03-01 -0.380899848
2007-04-01 -0.38062806
2007-05-01 -0.5942433
2007-06-01 -0.381903716
2007-07-01 0.020175065
2007-08-01 0.13658184
2007-09-01 0.070133735
2007-10-01 -0.017461997
2007-11-01 0.331979307
2007-12-01 0.478924971
2008-01-01 0.716753276
2008-02-01 0.921306927
2008-03-01 1.146651272
2008-04-01 0.670229189
2008-05-01 0.674779429
2008-06-01 0.816289856
2008-07-01 1.07668813
2008-08-01 1.223562152
2008-09-01 1.802235749
2008-10-01 3.505405935
2008-11-01 3.287386081
2008-12-01 3.434612917
2009-01-01 2.852747699
2009-02-01 3.219217498
2009-03-01 2.779292553
2009-04-01 2.261261713
2009-05-01 1.392963535
2009-06-01 0.958035234
2009-07-01 0.354484533
2009-08-01 0.084875569
2009-09-01 0.064863195
2009-10-01 -0.139221898
2009-11-01 -0.011603752
2009-12-01 -0.468745152
2010-01-01 -0.202241812
2010-02-01 -0.005845354
2010-03-01 -0.160873465
2010-04-01 -0.273883037
2010-05-01 -0.121926314
2010-06-01 0.043881885
2010-07-01 0.161324108
2010-08-01 -0.286172532
2010-09-01 -0.01773387
2010-10-01 -0.029063606
2010-11-01 -0.149156555
2010-12-01 -0.414755241
2011-01-01 -0.036904031
2011-02-01 -0.280544428
2011-03-01 -0.319143733
2011-04-01 -0.274204309
2011-05-01 -0.15225431
2011-06-01 -0.029390153
2011-07-01 -0.075566246
2011-08-01 -0.103262864
2011-09-01 0.440073132
2011-10-01 -0.091291626
2011-11-01 0.498686125
2011-12-01 0.272085715
2012-01-01 0.169705499
2012-02-01 0.04216011
2012-03-01 -0.348358167
2012-04-01 -0.178299525
2012-05-01 -0.085295994
2012-06-01 0.151386351
2012-07-01 -0.020503108
2012-08-01 -0.219471222
2012-09-01 -0.165862595
2012-10-01 -0.194617768
2012-11-01 -0.063886107
2012-12-01 -0.178168591
2013-01-01 -0.110091977
2013-02-01 -0.049275363
2013-03-01 -0.113697465
2013-04-01 -0.142298829
2013-05-01 -0.504019776
2013-06-01 -0.355288846
2013-07-01 -0.024649505
2013-08-01 -0.129448663
2013-09-01 -0.144525104
2013-10-01 -0.056655139
2013-11-01 -0.017293505
2013-12-01 -0.169109277
2014-01-01 -0.318673738
2014-02-01 -0.225254708
2014-03-01 -0.287614172
2014-04-01 -0.36826282
2014-05-01 -0.381772465
2014-06-01 -0.316255156
2014-07-01 -0.319603615
2014-08-01 -0.314922135
2014-09-01 -0.211969565
2014-10-01 -0.212532602
2014-11-01 0.061323386
2014-12-01 0.09367556
2015-01-01 -0.02741207
2015-02-01 -0.273491809
2015-03-01 -0.119076367
2015-04-01 0.008866754
2015-05-01 0.054106669
2015-06-01 0.149703724
2015-07-01 0.212963921
2015-08-01 0.398904949
2015-09-01 0.537481461
2015-10-01 0.420371708
2015-11-01 0.508315542
2015-12-01 0.686305426
2016-01-01 0.917501575
2016-02-01 0.945779162
2016-03-01 0.569088712
2016-04-01 0.225135907
2016-05-01 0.237191731
2016-06-01 0.050658278
2016-07-01 -0.00144443
2016-08-01 -0.033565096
2016-09-01 -0.083891539
2016-10-01 -0.088238951
2016-11-01 -0.726708697
2016-12-01 -0.250782325
2017-01-01 -0.203477088
2017-02-01 -0.189571273
2017-03-01 -0.179758805
2017-04-01 -0.132423025
2017-05-01 -0.182224344
2017-06-01 -0.140724843
2017-07-01 -0.16665312
2017-08-01 -0.095340333
2017-09-01 -0.27001982
2017-10-01 -0.23054888
2017-11-01 -0.147272841
2017-12-01 -0.209004873
2018-01-01 -0.405258573
2018-02-01 -0.25310053
2018-03-01 -0.11415488
2018-04-01 -0.290513036
2018-05-01 -0.203316288
2018-06-01 0.015889711
2018-07-01 -0.138598593
2018-08-01 -0.107475036
2018-09-01 -0.186615939
2018-10-01 -0.015512904
2018-11-01 0.129521277
2018-12-01 0.321656877
2019-01-01 0.152957621
2019-02-01 0.041425444
2019-03-01 -0.145115221
2019-04-01 -0.030624617
2019-05-01 -0.040561
2019-06-01 -0.019135844
2019-07-01 -0.068967307
2019-08-01 -0.181497578
2019-09-01 -0.259663237
2019-10-01 -0.251696732
2019-11-01 -0.199353661
2019-12-01 -0.313935005
2020-01-01 -0.271218686
2020-02-01 -0.174047697
2020-03-01 1.206990978
2020-04-01 0.647786211
2020-05-01 0.383727145
2020-06-01 0.032821844
2020-07-01 -0.180763875
2020-08-01 -0.306451489
2020-09-01 -0.023538888
2020-10-01 -0.22975045
2020-11-01 -0.488399225
2020-12-01 -0.526215283
2021-01-01 -0.676334023
2021-02-01 -0.957520732
2021-03-01 -0.760997038
2021-04-01 -0.502718027
2021-05-01 -0.439758336
2021-06-01 -0.593708333
2021-07-01 -0.561982207
2021-08-01 -0.488418925
2021-09-01 -0.649450131
2021-10-01 -0.525938419
2021-11-01 -0.444578306
2021-12-01 -0.445657058
2022-01-01 -0.344501003
2022-02-01 -0.209066147
2022-03-01 -0.801658493
2022-04-01 -0.287493295
2022-05-01 -0.119317097
2022-06-01 0.077000835
2022-07-01 -0.010338249
2022-08-01 -0.045164649
2022-09-01 0.026108886
2022-10-01 0.076195563
2022-11-01 -0.249611214
2022-12-01 -0.035978473
2023-01-01 -0.059099958
2023-02-01 -0.172297342
2023-03-01 -0.222744058
2023-04-01 0.133035001
2023-05-01 0.083327686
2023-06-01 0.133954325
2023-07-01 -0.02297682
2023-08-01 0.030761378
2023-09-01 -0.047038266
2023-10-01 0.19178664
2023-11-01 -0.099912552
2023-12-01 -0.252070115
2024-01-01 -0.104989805
2024-02-01 -0.167639507

Note: The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of bond market investors' risk sentiment. It is derived as the residual of a regression that models corporate bond spreads after controlling for expected default losses. By construction, its historical mean is zero. Positive (negative) EBP values indicate that investors' risk appetite is below (above) its historical mean.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Lehman Brothers Fixed Income Database (Warga); Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., ICE Data Services; Center for Research in Security Prices, CRSP/Compustat Merged Database, Wharton Research Data Services; S&P Global, Compustat.

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Figure 1.10. Spreads on leveraged loans declined modestly

Percentage points

Date B (monthly) B (weekly) BB (monthly) BB (weekly)
1997-01-31     2.09188813  
1997-02-28     2.081784102  
1997-03-31     2.082131354  
1997-04-30     2.13128051  
1997-05-31     2.156636783  
1997-06-30     2.167234706  
1997-07-31 2.278659303   1.912117954  
1997-08-31 2.255190912   1.847993503  
1997-09-30 2.282264366   1.890312257  
1997-10-31 2.548701941   1.95239139  
1997-11-30 2.552277198   1.911238578  
1997-12-31 2.577663079   1.885312108  
1998-01-31 2.583286704   2.039621189  
1998-02-28 2.577240454   2.076864347  
1998-03-31 2.614346931   2.014244209  
1998-04-30 2.604711257   2.019649061  
1998-05-31 2.64727726   2.174256136  
1998-06-30 2.638384911   2.280400402  
1998-07-31 2.652981144   2.254612142  
1998-08-31 2.751058603   2.330406251  
1998-09-30 2.94176293   2.503683338  
1998-10-31 3.063245772   2.630212144  
1998-11-30 3.346695816   2.686889488  
1998-12-31 3.23167825   2.557427806  
1999-01-31 3.200453504   2.622222163  
1999-02-28 3.21252047   2.549691079  
1999-03-31 3.570720313   2.484316634  
1999-04-30 3.933362083   2.651588876  
1999-05-31 3.797347759   2.842941804  
1999-06-30 3.856619932   2.843767035  
1999-07-31 4.096399146   2.948887085  
1999-08-31 4.456923697   2.994047716  
1999-09-30 4.745677304   3.962524585  
1999-10-31 4.961565057   4.085427379  
1999-11-30 4.741948663   3.908859837  
1999-12-31 6.075945806   4.015088945  
2000-01-31 6.242112668   4.073318477  
2000-02-29 6.074316532   4.114062447  
2000-03-31 6.054808031   3.434830755  
2000-04-30 5.439305951   3.511192693  
2000-05-31 5.24555979   3.259028298  
2000-06-30 5.671585599   3.116330778  
2000-07-31 6.033401004   3.00189609  
2000-08-31 5.729202064   3.020411462  
2000-09-30 6.652208066   3.19167802  
2000-10-31 6.909706813   3.255724041  
2000-11-30 7.309964117   3.070969307  
2000-12-31 6.688836596   3.046207166  
2001-01-31 6.262165593   2.950594704  
2001-02-28 5.950374107   2.910251425  
2001-03-31 6.8348555   2.94681492  
2001-04-30 6.708736768   2.955077536  
2001-05-31 6.4951938   2.947355151  
2001-06-30 6.623167835   2.989296771  
2001-07-31 6.710761767   3.030494639  
2001-08-31 6.509984259   2.997834632  
2001-09-30 7.418618009   3.34538512  
2001-10-31 8.706155231   3.508112025  
2001-11-30 6.817658163   3.114308784  
2001-12-31 6.210143683   3.089209747  
2002-01-31 5.892862309   3.05192671  
2002-02-28 5.502441683   3.091428669  
2002-03-31 5.223070043   3.06572117  
2002-04-30 4.919820916   2.939460183  
2002-05-31 5.62215769   2.952333944  
2002-06-30 5.903710317   2.993291727  
2002-07-31 6.631473548   3.37911052  
2002-08-31 6.52683651   3.715267406  
2002-09-30 6.638053   3.750186118  
2002-10-31 7.374960799   4.639273938  
2002-11-30 6.718488029   4.137358247  
2002-12-31 6.581381678   3.51504978  
2003-01-31 6.104288712   3.600831789  
2003-02-28 6.296625981   3.55664379  
2003-03-31 6.031704463   3.56692318  
2003-04-30 5.107015923   3.580657336  
2003-05-31 4.659263532   3.351620841  
2003-06-30 4.475665852   3.242489052  
2003-07-31 4.512590154   3.032349549  
2003-08-31 4.724970075   3.006269321  
2003-09-30 4.979679712   2.980814917  
2003-10-31 4.823216865   2.937558894  
2003-11-30 4.776087956   2.853108173  
2003-12-31 4.514679285   2.609684261  
2004-01-31 4.030295882   2.505848458  
2004-02-29 4.20273622   2.450504955  
2004-03-31 3.917407114   2.381952191  
2004-04-30 3.919637007   2.333858047  
2004-05-28 4.062617639   2.40125276  
2004-06-25 3.770043862   2.34405188  
2004-07-30 3.843627933   2.255141151  
2004-08-31 3.690023757   2.201748435  
2004-09-30 3.613219159   2.136299164  
2004-10-29 3.423142673   2.101811115  
2004-11-30 3.258223484   2.072763693  
2004-12-31 3.205977599   2.014210966  
2005-01-31 3.252577924   1.980077793  
2005-02-25 3.142369917   1.937545734  
2005-03-31 3.047039139   1.850718315  
2005-04-29 3.295215816   1.826328866  
2005-05-31 3.124605675   1.860770294  
2005-06-30 3.098929284   1.840825021  
2005-07-29 3.038934267   1.765225638  
2005-08-30 2.977012124   1.684525925  
2005-09-30 2.959684756   1.725819089  
2005-10-28 3.004611488   1.771756347  
2005-11-30 2.893254531   1.783893172  
2005-12-30 2.812631245   1.808442761  
2006-01-31 2.823837991   1.745092629  
2006-02-28 2.78175102   1.681539632  
2006-03-31 2.739771964   1.68006846  
2006-04-28 2.737436009   1.660514413  
2006-05-31 2.673117132   1.727872182  
2006-06-30 2.674438506   1.835263297  
2006-07-28 2.698809064   1.875504449  
2006-08-31 2.740115341   1.86821573  
2006-09-29 2.738626971   1.86028665  
2006-10-31 2.697930732   1.827817963  
2006-11-30 2.702841826   1.966498489  
2006-12-29 2.725997941   1.94127587  
2007-01-31 2.600943861   1.913990437  
2007-02-28 2.527216925   1.740932619  
2007-03-30 2.492788553   1.770728531  
2007-04-27 2.464456807   1.79786483  
2007-05-31 2.411012615   1.785477596  
2007-06-29 2.698014075   2.010311422  
2007-07-31 3.478625362   2.824087826  
2007-08-31 3.593701588   2.997391968  
2007-09-28 3.341144765   2.711721162  
2007-10-26 3.285028147   2.637905571  
2007-11-30 3.85693643   3.062700596  
2007-12-28 4.158829705   2.929114293  
2008-01-31 4.975806018   3.743547176  
2008-02-29 6.073212249   4.376096615  
2008-03-28 7.208623221   4.324824068  
2008-04-30 6.348011313   3.682164953  
2008-05-30 6.379506401   3.587716478  
2008-06-27 6.39477656   3.862890484  
2008-07-31 7.173169589   4.179169073  
2008-08-29 7.65469665   4.233284712  
2008-09-30 10.60797989   5.941421106  
2008-10-31 17.04969574   9.274483593  
2008-11-28 20.89103789   11.0334419  
2008-12-31 24.76122466   11.47030365  
2009-01-30 20.69854071   8.744575104  
2009-02-27 20.75494273   7.85357321  
2009-03-31 20.31940445   7.791746152  
2009-04-30 15.78603819   5.76799071  
2009-05-29 12.39966035   5.560701626  
2009-06-30 10.23361646   4.856091479  
2009-07-31 8.497799368   4.186032619  
2009-08-31 7.807965623   4.133706674  
2009-09-30 6.96202797   4.006873408  
2009-10-30 6.36999189   4.195248107  
2009-11-30 6.704091026   4.526671541  
2009-12-31 6.020436669   3.882098136  
2010-01-29 5.673790358   3.699848283  
2010-02-26 5.782266113   3.813460697  
2010-03-31 5.27419835   3.499254325  
2010-04-30 5.046092783   3.42850474  
2010-05-28 6.10543623   3.988692698  
2010-06-30 6.427051577   4.166631782  
2010-07-30 5.980864621   4.014011967  
2010-08-31 5.981197026   4.006990999  
2010-09-30 5.619694567   3.88035424  
2010-10-29 5.220238996   3.658196956  
2010-11-30 5.614760701   3.709545132  
2010-12-31 5.289997081   3.68691684  
2011-01-31 4.800970166   3.506045183  
2011-02-28 4.819888371   3.521926073  
2011-03-31 4.854444575   3.436375211  
2011-04-29 4.89480425   3.41062736  
2011-05-31 5.041155125   3.571798755  
2011-06-30 5.350327752   3.812068758  
2011-07-29 5.424969659   3.820199304  
2011-08-31 6.751228372   5.110951751  
2011-09-30 6.846344185   4.688318525  
2011-10-31 6.055158395   4.018786804  
2011-11-30 6.539957601   4.244311218  
2011-12-30 6.334345527   4.155591121  
2012-01-31 5.709288282   3.854599736  
2012-02-29 5.334908472   3.801143705  
2012-03-30 5.374036092   3.757435533  
2012-04-30 5.381195508   3.914070372  
2012-05-31 5.861093971   4.262568286  
2012-06-29 5.792673471   4.248600792  
2012-07-31 5.877940539   4.100262473  
2012-08-31 5.694161908   4.167612129  
2012-09-28 5.547691177   3.962440438  
2012-10-31 5.490887841   3.833106587  
2012-11-30 5.604074257   3.83601469  
2012-12-31 5.492338231   3.840471158  
2013-01-31 5.28405064   3.719379441  
2013-02-28 5.320350623   3.861849518  
2013-03-28 5.135984135   3.72611154  
2013-04-30 5.038359816   3.786623846  
2013-05-31 4.869384084   3.62152864  
2013-06-28 4.976929952   3.587007172  
2013-07-31 4.821365022   3.333400388  
2013-08-30 4.921733386   3.409726628  
2013-09-30 4.993291222   3.456238912  
2013-10-31 4.901852852   3.430421305  
2013-11-22   4.916377784   3.499955765
2013-11-29   4.914891458   3.518233972
2013-12-06   4.898171004   3.524592769
2013-12-13   4.876331321   3.519265469
2013-12-20   4.862503347   3.460523049
2013-12-27   4.839803606   3.398370805
2014-01-03   4.839262079   3.369628791
2014-01-10   4.774945019   3.341352033
2014-01-17   4.739750726   3.352491454
2014-01-24   4.736467988   3.338112667
2014-01-31   4.770168272   3.373253137
2014-02-07   4.76437119   3.366453535
2014-02-14   4.738729262   3.423159641
2014-02-21   4.715267423   3.437046942
2014-02-28   4.709790526   3.323524114
2014-03-07   4.704533429   3.318906023
2014-03-14   4.681325461   3.320472077
2014-03-21   4.648603975   3.306092109
2014-03-28   4.652339321   3.318788066
2014-04-04   4.718304465   3.375574896
2014-04-11   4.696981957   3.409174123
2014-04-17   4.718402054   3.402645006
2014-04-25   4.755950876   3.453507459
2014-05-02   4.738825046   3.407384974
2014-05-09   4.732969317   3.372525312
2014-05-16   4.698471116   3.380386391
2014-05-23   4.706252087   3.389482277
2014-05-30   4.717653505   3.389951511
2014-06-06   4.699577443   3.400249916
2014-06-13   4.685820569   3.402507859
2014-06-20   4.690118843   3.389094774
2014-06-27   4.680845234   3.371392398
2014-07-03   4.666334523   3.383072886
2014-07-11   4.658575971   3.417841231
2014-07-18   4.665917099   3.415667513
2014-07-25   4.671093117   3.425566587
2014-08-01   4.74805781   3.498796139
2014-08-08   4.762578882   3.558336507
2014-08-15   4.802610647   3.631927077
2014-08-22   4.794545458   3.60877406
2014-08-29   4.758376975   3.575706016
2014-09-05   4.767268309   3.575215511
2014-09-12   4.819516024   3.628959008
2014-09-19   4.821836488   3.632569381
2014-09-26   4.901986285   3.712759185
2014-10-03   4.973162228   3.755308292
2014-10-10   4.986114632   3.782397376
2014-10-17   5.140122532   3.921464774
2014-10-24   5.085148349   3.837086684
2014-10-31   4.999332346   3.737800657
2014-11-07   5.011006849   3.706677336
2014-11-14   4.995262482   3.694548608
2014-11-21   5.005295081   3.676991038
2014-11-28   5.032323702   3.669957261
2014-12-05   5.139745754   3.690461408
2014-12-12   5.405282994   3.914272538
2014-12-19   5.519807965   3.949508522
2014-12-26   5.448301608   3.89882721
2015-01-02   5.443144343   3.88988542
2015-01-09   5.440880506   3.915570376
2015-01-16   5.451260026   3.893411429
2015-01-23   5.443209503   3.879602844
2015-01-30   5.471747275   3.925043577
2015-02-06   5.413791147   3.856426966
2015-02-13   5.334950359   3.794522836
2015-02-20   5.27347492   3.748249472
2015-02-27   5.22462584   3.728373996
2015-03-06   5.188786002   3.677835
2015-03-13   5.160951961   3.68595866
2015-03-20   5.212122718   3.703929496
2015-03-27   5.21040577   3.669109811
2015-04-02   5.176891929   3.661889197
2015-04-10   5.122567945   3.581800596
2015-04-17   5.136221039   3.563280056
2015-04-24   5.113677401   3.560362804
2015-05-01   5.11800049   3.548952597
2015-05-08   5.094962992   3.567037959
2015-05-15   5.111735564   3.595207081
2015-05-22   5.129718477   3.567322428
2015-05-29   5.138548929   3.56770722
2015-06-05   5.223016717   3.581797787
2015-06-12   5.276865047   3.607936474
2015-06-19   5.308696533   3.640718819
2015-06-26   5.309534447   3.624999743
2015-07-02   5.354256657   3.62705514
2015-07-10   5.340924057   3.593556675
2015-07-17   5.296042792   3.54833725
2015-07-24   5.312473852   3.552946258
2015-07-31   5.362804633   3.582230706
2015-08-07   5.3838736   3.624674017
2015-08-14   5.412196953   3.682274495
2015-08-21   5.483047648   3.708981882
2015-08-28   5.560346207   3.735472023
2015-09-04   5.41201616   3.719743088
2015-09-11   5.423930137   3.694121119
2015-09-18   5.445589999   3.675781383
2015-09-25   5.521814767   3.702046847
2015-10-02   5.747364413   3.781452424
2015-10-09   5.754071527   3.77081726
2015-10-16   5.78555008   3.780684027
2015-10-23   5.76314917   3.781348985
2015-10-30   5.768075991   3.848737724
2015-11-06   5.771258001   3.811053802
2015-11-13   5.899560083   3.899866721
2015-11-20   6.075623026   3.947751217
2015-11-27   6.114545324   3.916660319
2015-12-04   6.207904349   3.874484344
2015-12-11   6.660786963   3.95863275
2015-12-18   7.004504876   4.023014983
2015-12-24   7.076315778   4.049996674
2015-12-31   7.078051368   4.032757065
2016-01-08   7.116764079   4.006440014
2016-01-15   7.22109756   4.033594782
2016-01-22   7.463377685   4.140913827
2016-01-29   7.426786701   4.143736858
2016-02-05   7.459994834   4.112145558
2016-02-12   7.710244428   4.262792756
2016-02-19   7.524063928   4.267073355
2016-02-26   7.507702418   4.240147461
2016-03-04   7.245200099   4.113030235
2016-03-11   6.950796478   3.97372928
2016-03-18   6.563393002   3.763428872
2016-03-24   6.504210223   3.781129591
2016-04-01   6.280890574   3.805153009
2016-04-08   6.202166372   3.730850057
2016-04-15   5.807877417   3.690519535
2016-04-22   5.599083232   3.616925643
2016-04-29   5.521393475   3.603262417
2016-05-06   5.49952765   3.642831502
2016-05-13   5.463222133   3.650158304
2016-05-20   5.416815879   3.621082734
2016-05-27   5.332033623   3.579699503
2016-06-03   5.336304568   3.570474948
2016-06-10   5.289366572   3.608965167
2016-06-17   5.294908361   3.64507633
2016-06-24   5.3449611   3.641041079
2016-07-01   5.379635994   3.651662015
2016-07-08   5.33862199   3.622247218
2016-07-15   5.234737724   3.54090099
2016-07-22   5.147036813   3.483750552
2016-07-29   5.121639252   3.448759909
2016-08-05   5.098302719   3.469556608
2016-08-12   5.072111009   3.439328269
2016-08-19   5.132338019   3.444039376
2016-08-26   5.097572653   3.454411856
2016-09-02   5.042716598   3.426115971
2016-09-09   5.001575128   3.385679649
2016-09-16   5.000550277   3.366985965
2016-09-23   4.885045624   3.349084715
2016-09-30   4.883068377   3.341118431
2016-10-07   4.840306451   3.274930981
2016-10-14   4.860983165   3.27357159
2016-10-21   4.80530747   3.202489596
2016-10-28   4.779817803   3.193053394
2016-11-04   4.797016739   3.2485184
2016-11-10   4.799874378   3.272098817
2016-11-18   4.767751003   3.218538427
2016-11-25   4.74923311   3.20983697
2016-12-02   4.681702351   3.20028216
2016-12-09   4.593162295   3.094430078
2016-12-16   4.543337261   3.06594441
2016-12-23   4.59501723   3.071597498
2016-12-30   4.643367528   3.035776307
2017-01-06   4.567639132   3.019919741
2017-01-13   4.536574233   3.030115858
2017-01-20   4.556134591   3.056400182
2017-01-27   4.535020889   3.086673602
2017-02-03   4.50386572   3.060619592
2017-02-10   4.508648423   3.007438418
2017-02-17   4.448177485   2.951559206
2017-02-24   4.388560878   2.932189279
2017-03-03   4.342299593   2.884096232
2017-03-10   4.344391973   2.869587671
2017-03-17   4.321808281   2.85235147
2017-03-24   4.316396112   2.936968178
2017-03-31   4.250673997   2.909729816
2017-04-07   4.154828147   2.878882118
2017-04-13   4.115613652   2.850450981
2017-04-21   4.129010795   2.832789761
2017-04-28   4.126584476   2.81799605
2017-05-05   4.157895866   2.881186836
2017-05-12   4.130287386   2.882424329
2017-05-19   4.111150613   2.888773689
2017-05-26   4.038568302   2.885903683
2017-06-02   4.054623194   2.865969376
2017-06-09   4.034217058   2.869238168
2017-06-16   4.036661586   2.880127448
2017-06-23   4.070468801   2.864037435
2017-06-30   4.07836583   2.8391982
2017-07-07   4.069280898   2.833183299
2017-07-14   4.09480047   2.832880559
2017-07-21   4.090062724   2.804314364
2017-07-28   4.030225752   2.780963817
2017-08-04   4.032379197   2.752044259
2017-08-11   4.056409571   2.799437965
2017-08-18   4.066051766   2.778864261
2017-08-25   4.071799224   2.820702451
2017-09-01   4.059344133   2.852210068
2017-09-08   4.021957791   2.872634763
2017-09-15   4.017126073   2.890653771
2017-09-22   4.022401819   2.824808444
2017-09-29   4.01261109   2.715818027
2017-10-06   3.980137602   2.668259166
2017-10-13   3.945235935   2.666213575
2017-10-20   3.925018654   2.650542487
2017-10-27   3.944708872   2.651767964
2017-11-03   3.965874722   2.626799792
2017-11-10   3.982528913   2.62230663
2017-11-17   3.961012651   2.646345535
2017-11-24   3.954865118   2.637152497
2017-12-01   3.948242077   2.628638214
2017-12-08   3.943982507   2.607844296
2017-12-15   3.999049602   2.622258174
2017-12-22   3.911517766   2.62741151
2017-12-29   3.886199593   2.59495622
2018-01-05   3.873321913   2.552850627
2018-01-12   3.80788949   2.543632317
2018-01-19   3.77164134   2.524089106
2018-01-26   3.733860015   2.495947616
2018-02-02   3.702337911   2.43815613
2018-02-09   3.741603294   2.481185358
2018-02-16   3.730653859   2.486374253
2018-02-23   3.727767465   2.502382641
2018-03-02   3.722636118   2.513098554
2018-03-09   3.721717182   2.509580728
2018-03-16   3.704618344   2.49426911
2018-03-23   3.72231577   2.490181212
2018-03-30   3.723025195   2.492851524
2018-04-06   3.716121272   2.494986203
2018-04-13   3.683437381   2.488722757
2018-04-20   3.660879698   2.456453005
2018-04-27   3.668937741   2.438894246
2018-05-04   3.684271493   2.439840055
2018-05-11   3.679308511   2.44477163
2018-05-18   3.67525846   2.469683352
2018-05-25   3.691765262   2.49195051
2018-06-01   3.723323407   2.484480391
2018-06-08   3.713825007   2.486143205
2018-06-15   3.725509472   2.49076378
2018-06-22   3.745688643   2.516636858
2018-06-29   3.763646519   2.552103429
2018-07-06   3.750008316   2.531111257
2018-07-13   3.756437166   2.541174862
2018-07-20   3.748096173   2.53204466
2018-07-27   3.757417146   2.51411306
2018-08-03   3.752837791   2.498162198
2018-08-10   3.767166224   2.516157236
2018-08-17   3.774359182   2.533004231
2018-08-24   3.807141695   2.482888336
2018-08-31   3.827432743   2.492706273
2018-09-07   3.819108104   2.494551946
2018-09-14   3.806416089   2.499302742
2018-09-21   3.778142713   2.481231531
2018-09-28   3.734823781   2.480723289
2018-10-05   3.726562452   2.476299857
2018-10-12   3.747295956   2.486551972
2018-10-19   3.748605058   2.489240379
2018-10-26   3.789716385   2.537106073
2018-11-02   3.842712856   2.580854793
2018-11-09   3.855036727   2.614676859
2018-11-16   3.951011524   2.681425685
2018-11-23   4.073746606   2.759605448
2018-11-30   4.179859583   2.884428855
2018-12-07   4.334347961   3.009078764
2018-12-14   4.509545853   3.150633514
2018-12-21   4.832573323   3.373170305
2018-12-28   4.941223292   3.462860074
2019-01-04   4.733754374   3.180905956
2019-01-11   4.48670142   2.911212159
2019-01-18   4.475686724   2.838416032
2019-01-25   4.527344409   2.881502704
2019-02-01   4.542935453   2.887671369
2019-02-08   4.492502678   2.862814776
2019-02-15   4.440734662   2.830785831
2019-02-22   4.331918316   2.760269645
2019-03-01   4.236528326   2.685405228
2019-03-08   4.322832003   2.746646671
2019-03-15   4.314548779   2.7348961
2019-03-22   4.397419899   2.786648998
2019-03-29   4.45584151   2.877071041
2019-04-05   4.315945126   2.792921972
2019-04-12   4.257487168   2.741876114
2019-04-18   4.214028918   2.727858907
2019-04-26   4.180719023   2.69829144
2019-05-03   4.127505294   2.683151973
2019-05-10   4.20079036   2.680938891
2019-05-17   4.163569598   2.681971716
2019-05-24   4.219001725   2.68168054
2019-05-31   4.299644758   2.675874467
2019-06-07   4.304943133   2.66533403
2019-06-14   4.313318409   2.653670331
2019-06-21   4.313879279   2.663369166
2019-06-28   4.364151511   2.699296928
2019-07-05   4.355108589   2.691348572
2019-07-12   4.319070747   2.672797309
2019-07-19   4.302483067   2.654044174
2019-07-26   4.303035446   2.647092077
2019-08-02   4.304487151   2.729913326
2019-08-09   4.409349307   2.770048632
2019-08-16   4.503012079   2.801496638
2019-08-23   4.509996898   2.780838119
2019-08-30   4.464821469   2.8023573
2019-09-06   4.419717035   2.741597679
2019-09-13   4.346780885   2.669649229
2019-09-20   4.340224125   2.680274819
2019-09-27   4.325561512   2.674852563
2019-10-04   4.43294389   2.704410323
2019-10-11   4.586544952   2.74495029
2019-10-18   4.618781189   2.721442143
2019-10-25   4.634629528   2.713635755
2019-11-01   4.683168089   2.745953798
2019-11-08   4.677179004   2.751943743
2019-11-15   4.615034062   2.745132176
2019-11-22   4.669846596   2.753986356
2019-11-29   4.658184116   2.742636745
2019-12-06   4.547712738   2.710778218
2019-12-13   4.363787126   2.656414426
2019-12-20   4.242401827   2.64070995
2019-12-27   4.241301411   2.63801446
2020-01-03   4.23049445   2.621672479
2020-01-10   4.140296269   2.579319377
2020-01-17   4.10710221   2.57207486
2020-01-24   4.11279807   2.601422401
2020-01-31   4.191917713   2.627873805
2020-02-07   4.218113466   2.678684624
2020-02-14   4.21048703   2.69448074
2020-02-21   4.189811382   2.710893395
2020-02-28   4.581385576   3.038800808
2020-03-06   4.854775847   3.243091693
2020-03-13   6.393152114   4.750300126
2020-03-20   9.687392601   7.880604267
2020-03-27   9.030652923   6.14613463
2020-04-03   8.152598017   5.048295921
2020-04-09   7.306575883   4.264384758
2020-04-17   6.736097605   3.9406949
2020-04-24   6.913745649   4.121014051
2020-05-01   6.882484943   4.139171101
2020-05-08   6.558610116   4.051761747
2020-05-15   6.511861575   4.03392646
2020-05-22   6.159296181   3.705107904
2020-05-29   5.770013779   3.434488915
2020-06-05   5.419879122   3.211286026
2020-06-12   5.371023165   3.264167139
2020-06-19   5.216089404   3.138677392
2020-06-26   5.509749313   3.381529098
2020-07-03   5.398062822   3.357940019
2020-07-10   5.374377314   3.300913584
2020-07-17   5.200236801   3.191921366
2020-07-24   5.06954331   3.094751379
2020-07-31   5.092788093   3.129945665
2020-08-07   4.960052904   3.049278952
2020-08-14   4.861085065   3.017505498
2020-08-21   4.881261902   3.088271454
2020-08-28   4.831046734   3.07060158
2020-09-04   4.653959376   2.900115285
2020-09-11   4.578625866   2.866778157
2020-09-18   4.556192958   2.881774653
2020-09-25   4.741110976   3.058410064
2020-10-02   4.749737294   3.097629051
2020-10-09   4.632160271   3.005367616
2020-10-16   4.666338215   3.036300748
2020-10-23   4.825568477   3.066052261
2020-10-30   5.004104862   3.217636768
2020-11-06   4.808465024   3.057059694
2020-11-13   4.673767528   2.987008296
2020-11-20   4.669435701   3.020837829
2020-11-27   4.607305087   2.984896174
2020-12-04   4.499880242   2.899996322
2020-12-11   4.461261695   2.86494858
2020-12-18   4.393624919   2.80638031
2020-12-24   4.409350144   2.812745995
2020-12-31   4.389562553   2.795128995
2021-01-08   4.233295434   2.633972204
2021-01-15   4.155066443   2.646288395
2021-01-22   4.160384095   2.632714117
2021-01-29   4.223160977   2.693175607
2021-02-05   4.202910967   2.683015084
2021-02-12   4.130036486   2.704471062
2021-02-19   4.11652962   2.708917555
2021-02-26   4.133478535   2.692784752
2021-03-05   4.140896663   2.753765878
2021-03-12   4.15029676   2.770494246
2021-03-19   4.207701663   2.814910654
2021-03-26   4.233783652   2.840583716
2021-04-02   4.242169768   2.842340603
2021-04-09   4.166703584   2.791289321
2021-04-16   4.159516434   2.809300991
2021-04-23   4.188169454   2.771439806
2021-04-30   4.182422238   2.803546376
2021-05-07   4.186015167   2.813823733
2021-05-14   4.189507423   2.839720377
2021-05-21   4.162665279   2.815530351
2021-05-28   4.151023931   2.789107922
2021-06-04   4.13752527   2.818051684
2021-06-11   4.118869664   2.801147259
2021-06-18   4.147247387   2.857268469
2021-06-25   4.167449714   2.884636112
2021-07-02   4.16808501   2.895677266
2021-07-09   4.162528117   2.910820624
2021-07-16   4.152421941   2.858111782
2021-07-23   4.165367422   2.895482153
2021-07-30   4.214504276   2.920575298
2021-08-06   4.229902602   2.926476014
2021-08-13   4.2282632   3.088344559
2021-08-20   4.252212643   3.142292087
2021-08-27   4.235844894   3.117211558
2021-09-03   4.214371648   3.094625117
2021-09-10   4.184917606   3.071907489
2021-09-17   4.176513462   3.065419697
2021-09-24   4.178544949   3.060116647
2021-10-01   4.169831729   3.048551965
2021-10-08   4.183369366   3.046718806
2021-10-15   4.196000152   3.046699697
2021-10-22   4.189198809   3.054536077
2021-10-29   4.196742642   3.058988632
2021-11-05   4.179190915   3.053364043
2021-11-12   4.165704061   3.00451615
2021-11-19   4.168709723   3.008438757
2021-11-26   4.210727949   3.038421654
2021-12-03   4.285602253   3.083825581
2021-12-10   4.239507783   3.030513594
2021-12-17   4.226753013   3.071087529
2021-12-24   4.219803493   3.060229853
2021-12-31   4.280376332   3.080799937
2022-01-07   4.206427635   3.024832103
2022-01-14   4.175881376   2.992310027
2022-01-21   4.1572083   2.985139631
2022-01-28   4.236650264   3.031279612
2022-02-04   4.244349761   3.027858635
2022-02-11   4.295861193   3.059315004
2022-02-18   4.384179186   3.159829792
2022-02-25   4.461715199   3.229838462
2022-03-04   4.453774687   3.24193604
2022-03-11   4.773297859   3.500537716
2022-03-18   4.721740898   3.453609815
2022-03-25   4.58234696   3.338562161
2022-04-01   4.433104838   3.175361271
2022-04-08   4.198682806   3.010871779
2022-04-15   4.199813108   3.048717945
2022-04-22   4.214554676   3.019629533
2022-04-29   4.32392627   3.102746585
2022-05-06   4.453704988   3.235162249
2022-05-13   4.942924014   3.633495242
2022-05-20   5.094648654   3.724783819
2022-05-27   5.16713692   3.718416761
2022-06-03   4.961909022   3.485450364
2022-06-10   4.990382554   3.505355674
2022-06-17   5.389730781   3.833247969
2022-06-24   5.499729194   3.889322357
2022-07-01   5.870248436   4.166976213
2022-07-08   5.911972359   4.193191706
2022-07-15   5.843413006   4.138839423
2022-07-22   5.413868166   3.72025581
2022-07-29   5.365784892   3.683711044
2022-08-05   5.184972588   3.495140185
2022-08-12   4.898934992   3.297494714
2022-08-19   4.988872418   3.330274625
2022-08-26   5.076946736   3.415900909
2022-09-02   5.230128908   3.477416436
2022-09-09   5.208139161   3.457064767
2022-09-16   5.292604144   3.495188283
2022-09-23   5.580698957   3.595145832
2022-09-30   5.954246277   3.804468941
2022-10-07   5.74787332   3.642476257
2022-10-14   5.919739928   3.663220418
2022-10-21   5.915558306   3.571456859
2022-10-28   5.939316035   3.55280822
2022-11-04   5.777449991   3.468429057
2022-11-11   5.654634902   3.435845348
2022-11-18   5.51877625   3.403426378
2022-11-25   5.533385121   3.410095291
2022-12-02   5.481879753   3.399057813
2022-12-09   5.495472005   3.393809859
2022-12-16   5.504827374   3.366015599
2022-12-23   5.458205222   3.370679281
2022-12-30   5.471317634   3.384627766
2023-01-06   5.325327527   3.240281688
2023-01-13   5.093568126   3.105489729
2023-01-20   5.032282652   3.113980517
2023-01-27   4.915387802   3.08770212
2023-02-03   4.887839816   3.075680371
2023-02-10   4.800355786   3.082517772
2023-02-17   4.878038794   3.264215995
2023-02-24   5.002435521   3.32613083
2023-03-03   4.982201013   3.319083531
2023-03-10   5.020672189   3.41226326
2023-03-17   5.428459228   3.693124592
2023-03-24   5.460158655   3.410769568
2023-03-31   5.161598919   3.29848853
2023-04-07   5.101770388   3.284099922
2023-04-14   5.051503483   3.25970724
2023-04-21   4.97136537   3.272408545
2023-04-28   4.964896419   3.260873045
2023-05-05   5.072782428   3.312353675
2023-05-12   5.121929445   3.37095676
2023-05-19   5.142410913   3.391994458
2023-05-26   5.271471551   3.446215352
2023-06-02   5.250387279   3.442615575
2023-06-09   5.086018392   3.350706983
2023-06-16   4.963604942   3.290294994
2023-06-23   4.976920646   3.303424163
2023-06-30   4.81836912   3.209455622
2023-07-07   4.728011273   3.16413317
2023-07-14   4.589287404   3.107573188
2023-07-21   4.650319366   3.123197386
2023-07-28   4.651308462   3.118443804
2023-08-04   4.724333313   3.139659084
2023-08-11   4.72097852   3.131692966
2023-08-18   4.781499571   3.130329728
2023-08-25   4.771122947   3.120932517
2023-09-01   4.695365585   3.115130119
2023-09-08   4.627747809   3.115566737
2023-09-15   4.499446123   3.074731693
2023-09-22   4.496775665   3.086960703
2023-09-29   4.600998626   3.131280525
2023-10-06   4.733948306   3.22947469
2023-10-13   4.67568455   3.193819494
2023-10-20   4.747057254   3.209050578
2023-10-27   4.849195646   3.24798128
2023-11-03   4.84012544   3.190864429
2023-11-10   4.763692951   3.220545383
2023-11-17   4.727226064   3.180166033
2023-11-24   4.742043873   3.199891096
2023-12-01   4.74406734   3.199542199
2023-12-08   4.676263869   3.175457263
2023-12-15   4.555429987   3.109022731
2023-12-22   4.523722427   3.083005886
2023-12-29   4.463796063   3.044391162
2024-01-05   4.444163938   3.038494465
2024-01-12   4.429988493   3.031755359
2024-01-19   4.46649594   3.022297521
2024-01-26   4.476769596   3.034873273
2024-02-02   4.44661255   3.087743745
2024-02-09   4.428573415   3.09455673
2024-02-16   4.401040415   3.073163408
2024-02-23   4.381699927   3.058544114
2024-03-01   4.363600458   3.011757418
2024-03-08   4.314119759   3.02985455
2024-03-15   4.252894879   3.008196675
2024-03-22   4.267491246   3.027814476
2024-03-29   4.271575033   2.968548512

Note: The data show secondary-market discounted spreads to maturity. Spreads are the constant spread used to equate discounted loan cash flows to the current market price. B-rated spreads begin in July 1997. The black dashed line represents the data transitioning from monthly to weekly in November 2013.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 1.11. Treasury market depth increased but remained below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "Treasury market depth increased but remained below historical norms." The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2019 to March 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are three variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "5-year" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 160 million in 2019 and rises steadily, with local peaks in February of 2019 and October 2020. The peaks are between 260 and 285 million. In March of 2020, the series reaches its lowest value at 15 million. By the end of 2020, the value has risen again to about 260 million but declines to 40 million in March 2022, with much volatility in that decline. Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a slight uptick in the series, reaching about 80 million in December and climbing to 90 million by March 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year" and is designated by a red line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at just over 100 million dollars in 2019, climbs to 240 million in April 2019, then declines to around 75 million by August of 2019. It then upticks to 140 million in early 2020. There is a sharp decrease down to around 12 million in March of 2020. Following this sharp decline is an overall increase until June 2021 at a value of around 175 million. From this point there is a decreasing trend in the series with fluctuations between about 60 and 80 million throughout 2022 and 2023. In 2024, the series increases slightly to end at about 90 million by the end of March. The third series is labeled "30-year" and is designated by a blue line. The line corresponds to values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 35 in millions of dollars. The line starts around 15 million in January 2019 before a quick increase to around 28 million in the middle of 2019. There is a sharp decline to about 7 million in October of 2019 before a rise back to about 15 million and then an even sharper decline to under 5 million in March 2020. From there, the series rises to over 20 million in June 2021, before gradually declining to around 7 million in March 2022. The series hovers between 7 and 11 million until the end of 2022, when it declines again to about 5 million. It rises again to about 15 million by end the of 2023, drops to 10 million in the beginning of 2024, then ends at around 16 million in March 2024.

Note: Market depth is defined as the average top 3 bid and ask quote sizes for on-the-run Treasury securities.

Source: Inter Dealer Broker Community.

Return to text
Figure 1.12. On-the-run market depth improved in recent months but remained below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "On-the-run market depth improved in recent months but remained below historical norms." The x-axis measures time and ranges from September 2019 to March 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "2-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 300 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 50 million in October 2019 and rises steadily before there is a sharp decrease in March 2020 to a low of about 9 million. Then, there is a quick rebound back to around 285 million in February of 2021, a sharp drop down to about 110 million in March 2021, and an increase back to about 275 million in July 2021.The series has two quick decreases to around 50 million in January of 2022. Since then, there is a gradual decrease to around 10 million in early 2023 The series remains between 5 and 12 million for most of 2023, ending with a slight increase toward the end of the series to a final value of almost 29 million in March 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 60 in millions of dollars. It begins at about 35 million dollars in 2019, rises to around 50 million by February of 2020 before steeply dropping to 5 million in March 2020. The series increases back up to 55 million in late 2020. The series wavers between 30 and 50 million in 2021 and then declines throughout 2022 from about 30 million dollars to about 10 million dollars. March 2023 shows a further decline to about 8 million dollars before the series takes on an increasing trend reaches about 31 million in March 2024.

Note: The data show the time-weighted average market depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, for 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. OTR is on-the-run.

Source: BrokerTec; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.13. A measure of liquidity in equity markets remained below average

Market depth (number of contracts)

Date Market Depth (number of contracts)
2019-09-03 90.27037037
2019-09-04 101.6765432
2019-09-05 109.5950617
2019-09-06 112.1271605
2019-09-09 123.9246914
2019-09-10 132.4024691
2019-09-11 141.145679
2019-09-12 134.882716
2019-09-13 129.5617284
2019-09-16 115.0283951
2019-09-17 112.6395062
2019-09-18 102.1580247
2019-09-19 110.8839506
2019-09-20 117.5469136
2019-09-23 124.9444444
2019-09-24 120.3098765
2019-09-25 115.1790123
2019-09-26 107.7901235
2019-09-27 100.8987654
2019-09-30 101.4419753
2019-10-01 102.645679
2019-10-02 100.8592593
2019-10-03 94.48888889
2019-10-04 99.45925926
2019-10-07 91.3654321
2019-10-08 87.61234568
2019-10-09 86.09876543
2019-10-10 86.31728395
2019-10-11 76.01728395
2019-10-14 76.39506173
2019-10-15 88.46419753
2019-10-16 96.76049383
2019-10-17 105.0753086
2019-10-18 115.9728395
2019-10-21 129.0740741
2019-10-22 129.4271605
2019-10-23 133.4802469
2019-10-24 135.8925926
2019-10-25 145.4530864
2019-10-28 148.3654321
2019-10-29 153.345679
2019-10-30 149.0925926
2019-10-31 150.1864198
2019-11-01 150.5432099
2019-11-04 155.6962963
2019-11-05 157.0518519
2019-11-06 159.5530864
2019-11-07 165.6864198
2019-11-08 165.9481481
2019-11-11 166.3864198
2019-11-12 166.3518519
2019-11-13 172.2925926
2019-11-14 175.8469136
2019-11-15 191.1296296
2019-11-18 192.0395062
2019-11-19 192.8074074
2019-11-20 187.6666667
2019-11-21 182.4604938
2019-11-22 165.2283951
2019-11-25 174.9802469
2019-11-26 181.5641975
2019-11-27 195.0925926
2019-11-29 201.571927
2019-12-02 199.4608159
2019-12-03 178.4163714
2019-12-04 174.5583468
2019-12-05 164.9645196
2019-12-06 177.8802469
2019-12-09 193.5925926
2019-12-10 202.9012346
2019-12-11 202.9864198
2019-12-12 194.0938272
2019-12-13 161.1222222
2019-12-16 161.4246914
2019-12-17 166.1407407
2019-12-18 169.7296296
2019-12-19 195.3938272
2019-12-20 222.8160494
2019-12-23 219.7691358
2019-12-24 208.2800322
2019-12-26 207.8133655
2019-12-27 193.4170692
2019-12-30 181.3343532
2019-12-31 171.0504026
2020-01-02 178.8950617
2020-01-03 165.2345679
2020-01-06 163.4271605
2020-01-07 160.9987654
2020-01-08 156.9160494
2020-01-09 151.5432099
2020-01-10 159.7555556
2020-01-13 160.4160494
2020-01-14 162.7716049
2020-01-15 166.5333333
2020-01-16 177.1444444
2020-01-17 183.6617284
2020-01-21 188.0024691
2020-01-22 196.2604938
2020-01-23 199.6679012
2020-01-24 183.4074074
2020-01-27 165.3160494
2020-01-28 158.837037
2020-01-29 147.2740741
2020-01-30 131.8975309
2020-01-31 128.9111111
2020-02-03 130.4197531
2020-02-04 130.4975309
2020-02-05 126.5148148
2020-02-06 134.9333333
2020-02-07 134.6
2020-02-10 141.9246914
2020-02-11 142.5481481
2020-02-12 152.1567901
2020-02-13 152.7679012
2020-02-14 160.2049383
2020-02-18 162.3444444
2020-02-19 170.1864198
2020-02-20 161.2753086
2020-02-21 153
2020-02-24 135.2580247
2020-02-25 108.7382716
2020-02-26 75.7037037
2020-02-27 54.20617284
2020-02-28 35.28148148
2020-03-02 24.81111111
2020-03-03 19.4037037
2020-03-04 18.3691358
2020-03-05 18.40740741
2020-03-06 18.72592593
2020-03-09 22.00384615
2020-03-10 21.68409307
2020-03-11 18.92730294
2020-03-12 16.25731244
2020-03-13 14.76595442
2020-03-16 9.218518519
2020-03-17 8.313580247
2020-03-18 7.483075481
2020-03-19 7.265411663
2020-03-20 7.114794379
2020-03-23 7.49542116
2020-03-24 8.605297703
2020-03-25 11.31358025
2020-03-26 11.56419753
2020-03-27 12.32469136
2020-03-30 12.99382716
2020-03-31 13.9037037
2020-04-01 13.52716049
2020-04-02 14.64691358
2020-04-03 16.58641975
2020-04-06 20.1345679
2020-04-07 20.22345679
2020-04-08 20.82962963
2020-04-09 22.36419753
2020-04-13 22.71975309
2020-04-14 23.2382716
2020-04-15 26.09135802
2020-04-16 27.19753086
2020-04-17 30.25555556
2020-04-20 32.41851852
2020-04-21 31.2
2020-04-22 32.10617284
2020-04-23 32.80864198
2020-04-24 33.00123457
2020-04-27 37.20617284
2020-04-28 39.86419753
2020-04-29 41.49876543
2020-04-30 42.43333333
2020-05-01 43.78518519
2020-05-04 42.18888889
2020-05-05 46.53580247
2020-05-06 46.49135802
2020-05-07 50.27283951
2020-05-08 55.87777778
2020-05-11 60.78888889
2020-05-12 60.9
2020-05-13 60.74074074
2020-05-14 57.74567901
2020-05-15 50.36049383
2020-05-18 50.50246914
2020-05-19 47.77160494
2020-05-20 52.17530864
2020-05-21 55.4345679
2020-05-22 60.95802469
2020-05-26 62.49012346
2020-05-27 63.76419753
2020-05-28 63.0617284
2020-05-29 59.52839506
2020-06-01 61.59012346
2020-06-02 62.48518519
2020-06-03 71.10493827
2020-06-04 74.23703704
2020-06-05 82.03950617
2020-06-08 84.05679012
2020-06-09 82.11975309
2020-06-10 71.65308642
2020-06-11 63.08518519
2020-06-12 51.02222222
2020-06-15 39.18641975
2020-06-16 28.31234568
2020-06-17 26.95061728
2020-06-18 28.0382716
2020-06-19 32.67654321
2020-06-22 39.03333333
2020-06-23 46.53950617
2020-06-24 46.53703704
2020-06-25 46.31975309
2020-06-26 44.93209877
2020-06-29 42.5962963
2020-06-30 41.8617284
2020-07-01 43.96419753
2020-07-02 47.56296296
2020-07-06 53.05802469
2020-07-07 57.79259259
2020-07-08 59.42098765
2020-07-09 59.43580247
2020-07-10 57.9345679
2020-07-13 59.05925926
2020-07-14 51.35308642
2020-07-15 47.65925926
2020-07-16 48.4382716
2020-07-17 54.64691358
2020-07-20 59.9037037
2020-07-21 67.26419753
2020-07-22 74.46666667
2020-07-23 74.17037037
2020-07-24 70.9654321
2020-07-27 73.34320988
2020-07-28 75.99012346
2020-07-29 81.31728395
2020-07-30 84.27407407
2020-07-31 87.77407407
2020-08-03 83.08641975
2020-08-04 82.98765432
2020-08-05 82.12222222
2020-08-06 89.70123457
2020-08-07 89.3037037
2020-08-10 89.56049383
2020-08-11 91.67654321
2020-08-12 89.47654321
2020-08-13 86.58765432
2020-08-14 85.69382716
2020-08-17 90.74320988
2020-08-18 93.61604938
2020-08-19 99.82098765
2020-08-20 102.037037
2020-08-21 104.1987654
2020-08-24 102.4641975
2020-08-25 98.71481481
2020-08-26 102.7308642
2020-08-27 96.01234568
2020-08-28 98.38765432
2020-08-31 96.54938272
2020-09-01 98.44074074
2020-09-02 86.74814815
2020-09-03 79.72716049
2020-09-04 65.24567901
2020-09-08 51.50493827
2020-09-09 41.96049383
2020-09-10 31.49259259
2020-09-11 28.84444444
2020-09-14 34.85185185
2020-09-15 46.95679012
2020-09-16 49.55185185
2020-09-17 54.25925926
2020-09-18 63.69012346
2020-09-21 65.45185185
2020-09-22 59.07777778
2020-09-23 58.75679012
2020-09-24 55.47777778
2020-09-25 51.33209877
2020-09-28 53.6037037
2020-09-29 57.47654321
2020-09-30 57.21851852
2020-10-01 57.79382716
2020-10-02 56.0617284
2020-10-05 55.84074074
2020-10-06 52.05555556
2020-10-07 53.98765432
2020-10-08 58.34444444
2020-10-09 64.36790123
2020-10-12 63.92345679
2020-10-13 64.58395062
2020-10-14 62.75802469
2020-10-15 60.0691358
2020-10-16 59.2037037
2020-10-19 55.90617284
2020-10-20 56.46296296
2020-10-21 55.19506173
2020-10-22 56.78395062
2020-10-23 56.82469136
2020-10-26 55.98271605
2020-10-27 55.72592593
2020-10-28 56.16296296
2020-10-29 53.40987654
2020-10-30 45.9037037
2020-11-02 42.62098765
2020-11-03 41.71234568
2020-11-04 36.38271605
2020-11-05 33.98024691
2020-11-06 36.74197531
2020-11-09 35.10493827
2020-11-10 32.67777778
2020-11-11 39.13580247
2020-11-12 41.63580247
2020-11-13 48.37530864
2020-11-16 56.82345679
2020-11-17 64.27777778
2020-11-18 68.69135802
2020-11-19 72.38888889
2020-11-20 69.30864198
2020-11-23 65.74320988
2020-11-24 66.07407407
2020-11-25 63.27777778
2020-11-27 65.98639291
2020-11-30 68.35429415
2020-12-01 70.65305958
2020-12-02 69.79256575
2020-12-03 71.8407139
2020-12-04 76.11111111
2020-12-07 80.01234568
2020-12-08 87.0654321
2020-12-09 86.95185185
2020-12-10 84.75185185
2020-12-11 77.13950617
2020-12-14 74.11604938
2020-12-15 74.29382716
2020-12-16 77.97530864
2020-12-17 87.9691358
2020-12-18 90.75802469
2020-12-21 84.84444444
2020-12-22 76.27037037
2020-12-23 76.02222222
2020-12-24 66.36596887
2020-12-28 75.15115405
2020-12-29 80.32769726
2020-12-30 86.10424047
2020-12-31 86.05362319
2021-01-04 82.4962963
2021-01-05 71.04938272
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2021-01-07 62.79135802
2021-01-08 55.98518519
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2021-01-14 61.64814815
2021-01-15 62.86049383
2021-01-19 69.09506173
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2021-01-21 85.20246914
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2021-01-25 82.78395062
2021-01-26 79.5345679
2021-01-27 66.88024691
2021-01-28 54.19012346
2021-01-29 41.30987654
2021-02-01 40.83703704
2021-02-02 43.68271605
2021-02-03 49.55925926
2021-02-04 62.85802469
2021-02-05 76.23950617
2021-02-08 87.45925926
2021-02-09 93.11234568
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2021-02-11 86.8617284
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2021-02-16 80.03703704
2021-02-17 70.47901235
2021-02-18 71.87037037
2021-02-19 71.70123457
2021-02-22 66.88765432
2021-02-23 61.86296296
2021-02-24 61.79876543
2021-02-25 55.88148148
2021-02-26 47.47037037
2021-03-01 48.29876543
2021-03-02 49.20617284
2021-03-03 43.62345679
2021-03-04 41.69135802
2021-03-05 40.65555556
2021-03-08 32.63950617
2021-03-09 34.83950617
2021-03-10 35.59382716
2021-03-11 41.84814815
2021-03-12 44.24197531
2021-03-15 53.18641975
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2021-03-17 62.09876543
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2021-03-22 70.32098765
2021-03-23 69.86666667
2021-03-24 73.79876543
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2021-03-29 75.25925926
2021-03-30 73.13580247
2021-03-31 80.34444444
2021-04-01 89.00246914
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2021-04-06 102.2259259
2021-04-07 108.0839506
2021-04-08 107.5111111
2021-04-09 111.1024691
2021-04-12 111.4802469
2021-04-13 109
2021-04-14 109.3691358
2021-04-15 112.5901235
2021-04-16 111.7061728
2021-04-19 108.5580247
2021-04-20 103.3209877
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2021-04-22 99.05308642
2021-04-23 99.73209877
2021-04-26 102.2111111
2021-04-27 102.3123457
2021-04-28 100.2444444
2021-04-29 98.3
2021-04-30 91.65308642
2021-05-03 87.71111111
2021-05-04 85.33580247
2021-05-05 81.55185185
2021-05-06 81.96666667
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2021-05-11 84.52222222
2021-05-12 76.95802469
2021-05-13 74.08395062
2021-05-14 68.38641975
2021-05-17 62.22716049
2021-05-18 67.58395062
2021-05-19 68.4
2021-05-20 72.34197531
2021-05-21 73.87407407
2021-05-24 83.22716049
2021-05-25 85.72839506
2021-05-26 98.95555556
2021-05-27 100.5802469
2021-05-28 106.9308642
2021-06-01 102.3814815
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2021-06-03 97.5962963
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2021-07-01 128.0888889
2021-07-02 129.291358
2021-07-06 132.491358
2021-07-07 126.9358025
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2021-10-19 84.77654321
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2021-10-29 80.30246914
2021-11-01 76.00493827
2021-11-02 81.2
2021-11-03 83.68888889
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2021-11-09 78.80493827
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2022-01-03 52.6654321
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2022-12-13 38.27407407
2022-12-14 36.64320988
2022-12-15 33.01728395
2022-12-16 34.85679012
2022-12-19 33.8037037
2022-12-20 38.18518519
2022-12-21 44.0308642
2022-12-22 46.28271605
2022-12-23 45.07654321
2022-12-27 42.39135802
2022-12-28 41.3691358
2022-12-29 40.86790123
2022-12-30 38.77777778
2023-01-03 37.9654321
2023-01-04 38.88518519
2023-01-05 38.98024691
2023-01-06 38.5691358
2023-01-09 42.74691358
2023-01-10 45.30246914
2023-01-11 50.92839506
2023-01-12 50.79506173
2023-01-13 51.74814815
2023-01-17 50.52469136
2023-01-18 53.35802469
2023-01-19 50.99012346
2023-01-20 55.79382716
2023-01-23 56.20493827
2023-01-24 55.57283951
2023-01-25 53.14320988
2023-01-26 52.05061728
2023-01-27 52.51111111
2023-01-30 51.9691358
2023-01-31 55.75802469
2023-02-01 55.05308642
2023-02-02 54.75925926
2023-02-03 49.05061728
2023-02-06 46.98148148
2023-02-07 41.43580247
2023-02-08 43.08518519
2023-02-09 44.2691358
2023-02-10 46.69753086
2023-02-13 50.29506173
2023-02-14 49.58271605
2023-02-15 49.95185185
2023-02-16 49.90740741
2023-02-17 53.35925926
2023-02-21 54.74567901
2023-02-22 58.32345679
2023-02-23 61.22345679
2023-02-24 63.39506173
2023-02-27 63.80864198
2023-02-28 64.19135802
2023-03-01 67.16790123
2023-03-02 69.02839506
2023-03-03 72.08271605
2023-03-06 73.00493827
2023-03-07 70.89259259
2023-03-08 69.30493827
2023-03-09 67.79259259
2023-03-10 56.98148148
2023-03-13 45.10123457
2023-03-14 40.45432099
2023-03-15 32.05185185
2023-03-16 25.61481481
2023-03-17 27.34320988
2023-03-20 31.14814815
2023-03-21 34.5962963
2023-03-22 39.14197531
2023-03-23 41.35061728
2023-03-24 42.25185185
2023-03-27 43.66296296
2023-03-28 44.74814815
2023-03-29 49.52962963
2023-03-30 53.31975309
2023-03-31 64.37530864
2023-04-03 72.07283951
2023-04-04 73.39382716
2023-04-05 76.01851852
2023-04-06 78.7617284
2023-04-10 74.62345679
2023-04-11 76.41604938
2023-04-12 74.25925926
2023-04-13 74.8617284
2023-04-14 73.04938272
2023-04-17 71.4962963
2023-04-18 67.99382716
2023-04-19 72.54074074
2023-04-20 71.5
2023-04-21 72.71851852
2023-04-24 76.96790123
2023-04-25 78.27901235
2023-04-26 77.3308642
2023-04-27 81.41975309
2023-04-28 78.43580247
2023-05-01 75.56296296
2023-05-02 73.54938272
2023-05-03 69.0962963
2023-05-04 59.2691358
2023-05-05 61.60864198
2023-05-08 60.74938272
2023-05-09 61.42469136
2023-05-10 61.23950617
2023-05-11 62.59506173
2023-05-12 61.03950617
2023-05-15 62.30246914
2023-05-16 61.94320988
2023-05-17 66.61481481
2023-05-18 67.17530864
2023-05-19 65.62592593
2023-05-22 62.7691358
2023-05-23 62.86419753
2023-05-24 59.92716049
2023-05-25 58.4382716
2023-05-26 60.14938272
2023-05-30 60.10987654
2023-05-31 60.34074074
2023-06-01 62.73580247
2023-06-02 67.34320988
2023-06-05 67.20246914
2023-06-06 69.09135802
2023-06-07 68.45555556
2023-06-08 70.91481481
2023-06-09 68.28024691
2023-06-12 68.65555556
2023-06-13 67.32592593
2023-06-14 65.50987654
2023-06-15 59.94814815
2023-06-16 58.04320988
2023-06-20 56.17777778
2023-06-21 53.85185185
2023-06-22 53.0382716
2023-06-23 53.82222222
2023-06-26 56.26666667
2023-06-27 61.42592593
2023-06-28 64.8
2023-06-29 69.70740741
2023-06-30 77.17037037
2023-07-03 81.41500268
2023-07-05 80.9298175
2023-07-06 87.45080515
2023-07-07 91.34957059
2023-07-10 86.72734836
2023-07-11 86.65308642
2023-07-12 86.93333333
2023-07-13 85.08518519
2023-07-14 80.32839506
2023-07-17 82.32345679
2023-07-18 83.91975309
2023-07-19 82.45061728
2023-07-20 78.62469136
2023-07-21 78.55061728
2023-07-24 76.80987654
2023-07-25 79.16666667
2023-07-26 77.85061728
2023-07-27 78.15061728
2023-07-28 78.10740741
2023-07-31 77.61975309
2023-08-01 72.59382716
2023-08-02 75.42592593
2023-08-03 76.27283951
2023-08-04 76.63209877
2023-08-07 78.7654321
2023-08-08 77.83580247
2023-08-09 77.22222222
2023-08-10 70.6
2023-08-11 66.4
2023-08-14 61.66790123
2023-08-15 57.38641975
2023-08-16 51.95925926
2023-08-17 55.12962963
2023-08-18 53.8691358
2023-08-21 53.8654321
2023-08-22 53.9345679
2023-08-23 55.60617284
2023-08-24 54.41111111
2023-08-25 52.25432099
2023-08-28 49.59382716
2023-08-29 51.15185185
2023-08-30 51.22469136
2023-08-31 53.80740741
2023-09-01 58.10740741
2023-09-05 64.29259259
2023-09-06 67.70246914
2023-09-07 70.81234568
2023-09-08 70.78641975
2023-09-11 72.04691358
2023-09-12 69.29506173
2023-09-13 68.68518519
2023-09-14 70.02962963
2023-09-15 70.28518519
2023-09-18 72.96049383
2023-09-19 76.21728395
2023-09-20 73.97037037
2023-09-21 70.92716049
2023-09-22 70.67654321
2023-09-25 67.20987654
2023-09-26 64.85061728
2023-09-27 63.45679012
2023-09-28 61.25555556
2023-09-29 57.1382716
2023-10-02 53.05185185
2023-10-03 47.85555556
2023-10-04 45.42222222
2023-10-05 43.00123457
2023-10-06 43.14074074
2023-10-09 45.49382716
2023-10-10 48.67407407
2023-10-11 51.00493827
2023-10-12 52.45308642
2023-10-13 53.24444444
2023-10-16 55.17160494
2023-10-17 53.89876543
2023-10-18 52.25061728
2023-10-19 49.92592593
2023-10-20 49.27283951
2023-10-23 46.45925926
2023-10-24 45.05802469
2023-10-25 44.5
2023-10-26 45.21604938
2023-10-27 44.22222222
2023-10-30 46.42592593
2023-10-31 47.72469136
2023-11-01 47.62592593
2023-11-02 52.88641975
2023-11-03 57.64074074
2023-11-06 60.89259259
2023-11-07 65.80740741
2023-11-08 70.31975309
2023-11-09 69.60123457
2023-11-10 71.19506173
2023-11-13 72.04197531
2023-11-14 72.41481481
2023-11-15 73.14197531
2023-11-16 75.53703704
2023-11-17 77.06296296
2023-11-20 79.34074074
2023-11-21 79.57901235
2023-11-22 80.98148148
2023-11-24 80.32962963
2023-11-27 80.6308642
2023-11-28 80.85185185
2023-11-29 81.98024691
2023-11-30 83.76049383
2023-12-01 83.49506173
2023-12-04 87.10740741
2023-12-05 86.26296296
2023-12-06 89.23580247
2023-12-07 92.33209877
2023-12-08 92.72592593
2023-12-11 91.31851852
2023-12-12 93.58888889
2023-12-13 94.47530864
2023-12-14 89.65925926
2023-12-15 86.61604938
2023-12-18 88.9382716
2023-12-19 91.88518519
2023-12-20 89.71358025
2023-12-21 84.86666667
2023-12-22 86.50987654
2023-12-26 80.29876543
2023-12-27 73.53580247
2023-12-28 70.31728395
2023-12-29 71.43580247
2024-01-02 71.15555556
2024-01-03 67.49259259
2024-01-04 63.25061728
2024-01-05 58.71234568
2024-01-08 62.15802469
2024-01-09 63.72592593
2024-01-10 67.90246914
2024-01-11 66.25679012
2024-01-12 66.7345679
2024-01-16 62.34938272
2024-01-17 60.03209877
2024-01-18 56.74444444
2024-01-19 60.50740741
2024-01-22 60.04938272
2024-01-23 62.63580247
2024-01-24 62.25802469
2024-01-25 60.98641975
2024-01-26 59.56419753
2024-01-29 63.16419753
2024-01-30 62.67160494
2024-01-31 61.87283951
2024-02-01 61.56049383
2024-02-02 60.61728395
2024-02-05 58.47407407
2024-02-06 56.76790123
2024-02-07 58.09382716
2024-02-08 62.90123457
2024-02-09 67.95185185
2024-02-12 71.41358025
2024-02-13 72.86666667
2024-02-14 72.15925926
2024-02-15 70.07901235
2024-02-16 66.04691358
2024-02-20 60.21111111
2024-02-21 58.2691358
2024-02-22 57.94814815
2024-02-23 55.64938272
2024-02-26 55.89382716
2024-02-27 58.0691358
2024-02-28 60.48765432
2024-02-29 62.57654321
2024-03-01 69.81481481
2024-03-04 77.59753086
2024-03-05 78.11728395
2024-03-06 76.54938272
2024-03-07 78.62098765
2024-03-08 68.48271605
2024-03-11 55.20864198
2024-03-12 51.90740741
2024-03-13 53.47160494
2024-03-14 47.74691358
2024-03-15 49.62716049
2024-03-18 53.57283951
2024-03-19 55.10246914
2024-03-20 52.77160494
2024-03-21 54.98024691
2024-03-22 58.12345679
2024-03-25 60.73580247
2024-03-26 66.2308642
2024-03-27 70.11481481
2024-03-28 74.39382716

Note: The data show the depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, defined as the ask size plus the bid size divided by 2, for E-mini Standard & Poor's 500 futures.

Source: Refinitiv, DataScope Tick History; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.14. Commercial real estate prices, adjusted for inflation, continued to decline

Jan. 2001 = 100

Date Jan. 2001 = 100
2000-12-01 99.90788133
2001-01-01 100
2001-02-01 100.2192712
2001-03-01 100.4764044
2001-04-01 100.3952541
2001-05-01 100.0814704
2001-06-01 99.87430125
2001-07-01 99.99135966
2001-08-01 99.75524143
2001-09-01 99.05491309
2001-10-01 99.13889931
2001-11-01 99.04670349
2001-12-01 99.17154908
2002-01-01 98.69589148
2002-02-01 98.1207089
2002-03-01 97.47977099
2002-04-01 96.96367503
2002-05-01 97.14842568
2002-06-01 97.48864045
2002-07-01 97.98841224
2002-08-01 98.44870314
2002-09-01 99.17174387
2002-10-01 99.91686717
2002-11-01 100.8056523
2002-12-01 101.8922739
2003-01-01 102.2710745
2003-02-01 102.233401
2003-03-01 102.2432757
2003-04-01 102.9887833
2003-05-01 103.6279631
2003-06-01 103.9768497
2003-07-01 104.3492254
2003-08-01 104.4884913
2003-09-01 104.7011577
2003-10-01 105.3219055
2003-11-01 106.0095944
2003-12-01 106.4505435
2004-01-01 106.3026533
2004-02-01 106.2747086
2004-03-01 106.3848957
2004-04-01 107.0516632
2004-05-01 107.5594544
2004-06-01 108.4291346
2004-07-01 109.8820255
2004-08-01 111.1611244
2004-09-01 112.271208
2004-10-01 112.9477338
2004-11-01 114.0968252
2004-12-01 115.7067299
2005-01-01 116.6924392
2005-02-01 117.233275
2005-03-01 117.5132921
2005-04-01 117.9622958
2005-05-01 119.439766
2005-06-01 120.8593749
2005-07-01 121.8792266
2005-08-01 122.9210453
2005-09-01 123.0947111
2005-10-01 124.3700478
2005-11-01 126.6264339
2005-12-01 128.149762
2006-01-01 128.0394513
2006-02-01 128.5991155
2006-03-01 128.6012816
2006-04-01 128.0360286
2006-05-01 127.7724757
2006-06-01 127.8256976
2006-07-01 127.7165515
2006-08-01 127.7004076
2006-09-01 128.5790787
2006-10-01 129.6143857
2006-11-01 130.3013355
2006-12-01 130.7436314
2007-01-01 131.1913372
2007-02-01 131.52309
2007-03-01 131.5258552
2007-04-01 131.903688
2007-05-01 132.2730017
2007-06-01 133.0291382
2007-07-01 133.6777962
2007-08-01 133.9216915
2007-09-01 132.8253493
2007-10-01 131.3774707
2007-11-01 129.2764849
2007-12-01 128.1265358
2008-01-01 126.409009
2008-02-01 125.1220234
2008-03-01 123.2019261
2008-04-01 121.5879257
2008-05-01 119.546513
2008-06-01 117.1528136
2008-07-01 115.2007837
2008-08-01 114.2256272
2008-09-01 112.7970618
2008-10-01 112.1111939
2008-11-01 112.1809699
2008-12-01 111.0492694
2009-01-01 108.1816201
2009-02-01 105.2033557
2009-03-01 102.4709523
2009-04-01 99.71137274
2009-05-01 96.95573853
2009-06-01 93.78166174
2009-07-01 91.76863702
2009-08-01 89.67531174
2009-09-01 88.03341599
2009-10-01 86.65569516
2009-11-01 85.54826372
2009-12-01 84.85141826
2010-01-01 83.90196601
2010-02-01 83.3911701
2010-03-01 82.71737914
2010-04-01 82.36299761
2010-05-01 82.22165926
2010-06-01 82.36398851
2010-07-01 82.55902823
2010-08-01 82.78926703
2010-09-01 83.17975845
2010-10-01 83.54307347
2010-11-01 83.91773841
2010-12-01 84.07034092
2011-01-01 83.8391212
2011-02-01 83.49653791
2011-03-01 82.73461581
2011-04-01 82.30608878
2011-05-01 82.15283027
2011-06-01 82.60286717
2011-07-01 83.04421554
2011-08-01 83.42426673
2011-09-01 83.94286072
2011-10-01 84.6858317
2011-11-01 85.19352164
2011-12-01 85.72654803
2012-01-01 85.61225255
2012-02-01 85.47926572
2012-03-01 85.07167107
2012-04-01 85.04985335
2012-05-01 85.40270005
2012-06-01 85.82756728
2012-07-01 86.31659555
2012-08-01 86.26938582
2012-09-01 86.42536582
2012-10-01 87.10971264
2012-11-01 88.21568083
2012-12-01 89.1105982
2013-01-01 89.43896617
2013-02-01 89.25981685
2013-03-01 89.57098403
2013-04-01 90.26274761
2013-05-01 90.79867419
2013-06-01 91.37287861
2013-07-01 92.17854249
2013-08-01 92.93944566
2013-09-01 93.70706208
2013-10-01 94.81692024
2013-11-01 95.83414339
2013-12-01 96.62601295
2014-01-01 97.03444652
2014-02-01 97.43508923
2014-03-01 97.56457018
2014-04-01 98.01801949
2014-05-01 98.48817157
2014-06-01 99.13513912
2014-07-01 99.97862785
2014-08-01 100.9227726
2014-09-01 101.6311647
2014-10-01 102.7356942
2014-11-01 104.2307465
2014-12-01 105.8332877
2015-01-01 107.3395552
2015-02-01 107.7897175
2015-03-01 107.9421267
2015-04-01 108.4249517
2015-05-01 108.5085737
2015-06-01 108.7176028
2015-07-01 109.2687227
2015-08-01 109.996427
2015-09-01 110.7516569
2015-10-01 111.3932502
2015-11-01 112.1792266
2015-12-01 113.0483767
2016-01-01 113.2586358
2016-02-01 113.5521024
2016-03-01 113.5268248
2016-04-01 113.5832684
2016-05-01 113.8415211
2016-06-01 114.2464052
2016-07-01 115.2080919
2016-08-01 115.8205123
2016-09-01 116.1726142
2016-10-01 116.5433655
2016-11-01 117.1323775
2016-12-01 117.3997782
2017-01-01 116.9953312
2017-02-01 116.9270176
2017-03-01 117.2416719
2017-04-01 117.4788786
2017-05-01 118.1041972
2017-06-01 118.7816925
2017-07-01 119.6389983
2017-08-01 120.0346782
2017-09-01 120.1210013
2017-10-01 120.8121255
2017-11-01 121.2882067
2017-12-01 121.7610046
2018-01-01 121.5306845
2018-02-01 121.5303809
2018-03-01 121.9362962
2018-04-01 122.2178869
2018-05-01 122.5045473
2018-06-01 123.1181801
2018-07-01 123.9196772
2018-08-01 124.6071648
2018-09-01 125.0539144
2018-10-01 125.2073297
2018-11-01 125.8452805
2018-12-01 126.4052753
2019-01-01 126.4130105
2019-02-01 126.2911294
2019-03-01 126.2044445
2019-04-01 126.3341938
2019-05-01 126.9857121
2019-06-01 127.9451972
2019-07-01 128.6878962
2019-08-01 129.5264135
2019-09-01 130.0616601
2019-10-01 130.207241
2019-11-01 130.5908816
2019-12-01 131.0096957
2020-01-01 130.8340396
2020-02-01 130.7733132
2020-03-01 131.1500217
2020-04-01 131.8317104
2020-05-01 131.4751282
2020-06-01 130.5424068
2020-07-01 130.1378381
2020-08-01 130.6126776
2020-09-01 131.8584571
2020-10-01 133.4406075
2020-11-01 135.1013607
2020-12-01 136.35646
2021-01-01 137.0340036
2021-02-01 137.4058823
2021-03-01 137.615617
2021-04-01 137.8128089
2021-05-01 138.314667
2021-06-01 138.9964557
2021-07-01 140.7157271
2021-08-01 143.1578887
2021-09-01 145.5907414
2021-10-01 147.1126399
2021-11-01 148.8863346
2021-12-01 150.4424255
2022-01-01 150.3398755
2022-02-01 149.41771
2022-03-01 147.6920177
2022-04-01 147.5623662
2022-05-01 147.083209
2022-06-01 146.1700245
2022-07-01 146.6263521
2022-08-01 146.277511
2022-09-01 144.8185275
2022-10-01 142.5591334
2022-11-01 140.5218923
2022-12-01 138.4559787
2023-01-01 134.8977571
2023-02-01 132.099581
2023-03-01 130.1640688
2023-04-01 128.4637786
2023-05-01 127.4365758
2023-06-01 126.6210883
2023-07-01 126.230755
2023-08-01 125.6405676
2023-09-01 125.2827025
2023-10-01 125.2121657
2023-11-01 125.266913
2023-12-01 125.1009944
2024-01-01 124.0725072
2024-02-01 122.9684575

Note: The data are deflated using the consumer price index.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Return to text
Figure 1.15. Income of commercial properties relative to prices continued to grow but remained well below historical norms

Percent

Date Percent
2001-01-01 8.57989741
2001-02-01 8.574046489
2001-03-01 8.561989697
2001-04-01 8.568342304
2001-05-01 8.591625327
2001-06-01 8.594615923
2001-07-01 8.6101211
2001-08-01 8.641056719
2001-09-01 8.655288755
2001-10-01 8.679044561
2001-11-01 8.725277391
2001-12-01 8.792315534
2002-01-01 8.819822962
2002-02-01 8.860719401
2002-03-01 8.88724549
2002-04-01 8.910460908
2002-05-01 8.905000918
2002-06-01 8.896379856
2002-07-01 8.852049348
2002-08-01 8.79501265
2002-09-01 8.73416556
2002-10-01 8.674044525
2002-11-01 8.61899609
2002-12-01 8.544885816
2003-01-01 8.497136174
2003-02-01 8.4645379
2003-03-01 8.455077922
2003-04-01 8.434485708
2003-05-01 8.395839521
2003-06-01 8.353448802
2003-07-01 8.323366828
2003-08-01 8.272360713
2003-09-01 8.256441706
2003-10-01 8.228072575
2003-11-01 8.198637451
2003-12-01 8.147957011
2004-01-01 8.113645987
2004-02-01 8.051983518
2004-03-01 7.989427051
2004-04-01 7.94373754
2004-05-01 7.912444885
2004-06-01 7.87588976
2004-07-01 7.845330492
2004-08-01 7.818807848
2004-09-01 7.75991065
2004-10-01 7.714431776
2004-11-01 7.657350195
2004-12-01 7.574750757
2005-01-01 7.527501283
2005-02-01 7.500876348
2005-03-01 7.462826849
2005-04-01 7.412860429
2005-05-01 7.352633439
2005-06-01 7.295349367
2005-07-01 7.238369271
2005-08-01 7.188579989
2005-09-01 7.136240466
2005-10-01 7.085665012
2005-11-01 7.054713096
2005-12-01 7.023864306
2006-01-01 6.977383082
2006-02-01 6.946358117
2006-03-01 6.907713383
2006-04-01 6.873758933
2006-05-01 6.847685522
2006-06-01 6.816424251
2006-07-01 6.778093348
2006-08-01 6.763648492
2006-09-01 6.743515793
2006-10-01 6.735970104
2006-11-01 6.725970892
2006-12-01 6.711367583
2007-01-01 6.693994176
2007-02-01 6.682568883
2007-03-01 6.668560158
2007-04-01 6.649227381
2007-05-01 6.62707761
2007-06-01 6.616301495
2007-07-01 6.616757401
2007-08-01 6.606369579
2007-09-01 6.602583644
2007-10-01 6.594944779
2007-11-01 6.586401447
2007-12-01 6.584345714
2008-01-01 6.589050539
2008-02-01 6.599620601
2008-03-01 6.616996498
2008-04-01 6.643872334
2008-05-01 6.684524328
2008-06-01 6.729662154
2008-07-01 6.771604282
2008-08-01 6.825750378
2008-09-01 6.870187222
2008-10-01 6.890966074
2008-11-01 6.93548321
2008-12-01 6.986544317
2009-01-01 7.044987845
2009-02-01 7.053238677
2009-03-01 7.07978514
2009-04-01 7.086916744
2009-05-01 7.12275683
2009-06-01 7.176377444
2009-07-01 7.260869119
2009-08-01 7.338198263
2009-09-01 7.422877786
2009-10-01 7.525061257
2009-11-01 7.568013187
2009-12-01 7.638560078
2010-01-01 7.647795624
2010-02-01 7.678250457
2010-03-01 7.738547174
2010-04-01 7.816543281
2010-05-01 7.830351279
2010-06-01 7.813880179
2010-07-01 7.783874392
2010-08-01 7.799878998
2010-09-01 7.762599704
2010-10-01 7.731650039
2010-11-01 7.706613266
2010-12-01 7.64711485
2011-01-01 7.636477889
2011-02-01 7.609878881
2011-03-01 7.561883288
2011-04-01 7.541582654
2011-05-01 7.509583563
2011-06-01 7.464878233
2011-07-01 7.434328029
2011-08-01 7.384329621
2011-09-01 7.351283236
2011-10-01 7.345766949
2011-11-01 7.316647559
2011-12-01 7.286025663
2012-01-01 7.25146612
2012-02-01 7.252402367
2012-03-01 7.230503615
2012-04-01 7.194750424
2012-05-01 7.164376226
2012-06-01 7.145066967
2012-07-01 7.130808368
2012-08-01 7.121137806
2012-09-01 7.107983061
2012-10-01 7.072796337
2012-11-01 7.049808658
2012-12-01 7.014479061
2013-01-01 7.017863264
2013-02-01 7.000941914
2013-03-01 6.993063575
2013-04-01 6.976457977
2013-05-01 6.979811145
2013-06-01 6.960841242
2013-07-01 6.95503934
2013-08-01 6.927353892
2013-09-01 6.923190302
2013-10-01 6.930920981
2013-11-01 6.942241129
2013-12-01 6.926955252
2014-01-01 6.900869865
2014-02-01 6.884390976
2014-03-01 6.863904125
2014-04-01 6.865491059
2014-05-01 6.845328258
2014-06-01 6.824740107
2014-07-01 6.799563907
2014-08-01 6.784243493
2014-09-01 6.74564139
2014-10-01 6.709267841
2014-11-01 6.686019478
2014-12-01 6.644695563
2015-01-01 6.628753424
2015-02-01 6.617910657
2015-03-01 6.598499039
2015-04-01 6.560480938
2015-05-01 6.534458208
2015-06-01 6.525913443
2015-07-01 6.506781252
2015-08-01 6.485626139
2015-09-01 6.479076116
2015-10-01 6.459788132
2015-11-01 6.435124319
2015-12-01 6.419296509
2016-01-01 6.423306998
2016-02-01 6.409381038
2016-03-01 6.395765863
2016-04-01 6.389512309
2016-05-01 6.378130458
2016-06-01 6.361573153
2016-07-01 6.339554707
2016-08-01 6.333472896
2016-09-01 6.313272606
2016-10-01 6.301493684
2016-11-01 6.307440009
2016-12-01 6.316049636
2017-01-01 6.296047147
2017-02-01 6.297070032
2017-03-01 6.306535582
2017-04-01 6.311614154
2017-05-01 6.303677062
2017-06-01 6.288486122
2017-07-01 6.283363825
2017-08-01 6.278404148
2017-09-01 6.271011886
2017-10-01 6.270512705
2017-11-01 6.263424333
2017-12-01 6.244489961
2018-01-01 6.238659254
2018-02-01 6.228588066
2018-03-01 6.213383239
2018-04-01 6.204013508
2018-05-01 6.196302555
2018-06-01 6.199286231
2018-07-01 6.200976128
2018-08-01 6.192751412
2018-09-01 6.200896785
2018-10-01 6.198805679
2018-11-01 6.190004902
2018-12-01 6.174771812
2019-01-01 6.183340675
2019-02-01 6.177599578
2019-03-01 6.182445717
2019-04-01 6.180072692
2019-05-01 6.202124256
2019-06-01 6.189355221
2019-07-01 6.188487102
2019-08-01 6.172225442
2019-09-01 6.153661292
2019-10-01 6.139307989
2019-11-01 6.122354491
2019-12-01 6.116613587
2020-01-01 6.114246406
2020-02-01 6.11003229
2020-03-01 6.083398772
2020-04-01 6.074728126
2020-05-01 6.030314137
2020-06-01 6.023048395
2020-07-01 5.993409572
2020-08-01 5.98799345
2020-09-01 5.980213475
2020-10-01 5.960279226
2020-11-01 5.948080264
2020-12-01 5.929729593
2021-01-01 5.904052328
2021-02-01 5.896408409
2021-03-01 5.888596998
2021-04-01 5.886520222
2021-05-01 5.882474611
2021-06-01 5.871057546
2021-07-01 5.857865881
2021-08-01 5.841699834
2021-09-01 5.800525939
2021-10-01 5.767301303
2021-11-01 5.747738258
2021-12-01 5.692625421
2022-01-01 5.671666515
2022-02-01 5.651471103
2022-03-01 5.62099125
2022-04-01 5.589316031
2022-05-01 5.563067536
2022-06-01 5.534118007
2022-07-01 5.516636955
2022-08-01 5.502791309
2022-09-01 5.509439274
2022-10-01 5.522909242
2022-11-01 5.529124045
2022-12-01 5.551637797
2023-01-01 5.572600971
2023-02-01 5.580185819
2023-03-01 5.631420664
2023-04-01 5.670707145
2023-05-01 5.732459027
2023-06-01 5.795817966
2023-07-01 5.850909682
2023-08-01 5.902372674
2023-09-01 5.954338286
2023-10-01 6.005229137
2023-11-01 6.0535556
2023-12-01 6.096709272
2024-01-01 6.109000598
2024-02-01 6.139703177

Note: The data are a 12-month moving average of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May–August), pp. 101–18.

Return to text
Figure 1.16. Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans

This is a line chart titled "Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are quarterly. There is one line on the chart. The line shows "Net percentage of banks reporting." There is also a horizonal line marked at zero. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled "Tightening" and data points below zero to -100 are labeled "Easing." The series begins at about -7 in 1997 before a quick rise to around 40 in the middle of 1998. There is a dip and then an increase to 45 in 2000:Q1. There is a steady decrease and the series reaches its minimum of -25 in 2004:Q4. From there the series climbs to over 90 in 2008:Q4. From this peak, there is a decrease to below 0 starting in 2011 until 2015. The series has a small quick spike to around 27 in 2016, and remains roughly steady until another quick peak of 65 in 2020:Q2, before a dramatic decline to -17 in 2021:Q3. The series increased to 60 in mid-2023 before declining again to 20 in the final value for 2024:Q1.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial real estate loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.17. House prices continued to increase in recent months

12-month percent change

Date Zillow CoreLogic Case-Shiller
2003-01-01 7.263325344 9.678970732 9.62727585
2003-02-01 7.348212249 9.623167733 9.758809442
2003-03-01 7.42269462 9.580487463 9.64979225
2003-04-01 7.503365548 9.496493054 9.462293432
2003-05-01 7.58896016 9.260170108 9.148108287
2003-06-01 7.650222201 9.001245789 8.910324532
2003-07-01 7.686484722 8.817260078 8.860861832
2003-08-01 7.720708153 8.961028176 9.011464764
2003-09-01 7.78877467 9.36735388 9.235795681
2003-10-01 7.864245207 9.868415397 9.386396068
2003-11-01 7.917256402 10.30474666 9.57833228
2003-12-01 7.943818691 10.86757998 9.815178923
2004-01-01 8.001816067 11.3589443 10.23110067
2004-02-01 8.129492042 11.76165048 10.67560196
2004-03-01 8.327783303 12.32588625 11.42216379
2004-04-01 8.56356039 12.99239681 12.02390988
2004-05-01 8.841710231 13.4892931 12.50758495
2004-06-01 9.175491721 14.13114973 12.97755761
2004-07-01 9.547996937 14.5069748 13.13776457
2004-08-01 9.885963511 14.57418145 13.1205413
2004-09-01 10.16034558 14.72051251 13.15290341
2004-10-01 10.37821778 14.97593235 13.27728656
2004-11-01 10.58686272 15.1937203 13.49715356
2004-12-01 10.82348894 15.46762967 13.6360381
2005-01-01 11.05863811 15.57258385 13.80143558
2005-02-01 11.26332901 15.82524358 14.00408364
2005-03-01 11.42054722 16.21193679 14.22820655
2005-04-01 11.60176697 16.36076032 14.24271446
2005-05-01 11.73581344 16.20894327 14.29919773
2005-06-01 11.83335718 16.00069832 14.2838161
2005-07-01 11.85643244 15.87198604 14.28383878
2005-08-01 11.87608526 16.020985 14.3748781
2005-09-01 11.89063024 16.24832377 14.50583457
2005-10-01 11.89193234 15.96984592 14.36340371
2005-11-01 11.86637773 15.59444552 14.07619048
2005-12-01 11.76464289 15.1687426 13.51232117
2006-01-01 11.57384325 14.65435426 12.92699682
2006-02-01 11.31665325 13.79734021 12.0923913
2006-03-01 11.03966654 12.50052516 11.0402236
2006-04-01 10.69886656 10.95554709 9.97005988
2006-05-01 10.29101116 9.330695625 8.753096614
2006-06-01 9.75908602 7.486807535 7.28403674
2006-07-01 9.100213215 5.897810058 6.036760482
2006-08-01 8.335084794 4.509524688 4.820372897
2006-09-01 7.481758771 3.318749684 3.710376668
2006-10-01 6.633941826 2.404379631 2.965034965
2006-11-01 5.811384239 1.443279212 2.204040741
2006-12-01 5.055055526 0.360397088 1.732274721
2007-01-01 4.392143898 -0.536970654 1.045180556
2007-02-01 3.786648183 -1.38672525 0.534435262
2007-03-01 3.178519306 -2.688552684 -0.306429549
2007-04-01 2.532389019 -3.563242903 -0.827661312
2007-05-01 1.843834993 -4.210582545 -1.355895433
2007-06-01 1.154644726 -4.529195785 -1.63099431
2007-07-01 0.482553639 -4.866322665 -1.960890526
2007-08-01 -0.128110868 -5.442150213 -2.261388286
2007-09-01 -0.67639621 -6.341676488 -2.757871878
2007-10-01 -1.184629886 -7.471845198 -3.542515621
2007-11-01 -1.691996544 -8.618457275 -4.612536078
2007-12-01 -2.19139619 -9.706142858 -5.397587731
2008-01-01 -2.727560432 -10.8951061 -6.370402802
2008-02-01 -3.317288652 -11.99905354 -7.277908697
2008-03-01 -3.972761625 -12.66020806 -7.843460124
2008-04-01 -4.679349976 -13.24888305 -8.131554384
2008-05-01 -5.358610667 -13.37226804 -8.170222124
2008-06-01 -5.998077059 -13.40659377 -8.262641842
2008-07-01 -6.586098694 -13.71448919 -8.442455384
2008-08-01 -7.225578102 -14.11288273 -8.849803029
2008-09-01 -7.829036688 -14.92313703 -9.608083966
2008-10-01 -8.39175235 -15.72309374 -10.34754689
2008-11-01 -8.872924735 -16.22159071 -10.89860699
2008-12-01 -9.328513319 -16.99799061 -11.99953848
2009-01-01 -9.705025777 -17.48510489 -12.69581482
2009-02-01 -9.909142227 -17.08440865 -12.74898044
2009-03-01 -9.987654922 -16.30912183 -12.73972603
2009-04-01 -9.97954847 -15.0396562 -12.18025341
2009-05-01 -9.952173446 -13.31814617 -11.28607352
2009-06-01 -9.850003934 -11.57833764 -10.05163925
2009-07-01 -9.639454539 -10.04742217 -9.027819685
2009-08-01 -9.295522257 -8.680094264 -8.284635987
2009-09-01 -8.890489138 -7.466196547 -7.584460503
2009-10-01 -8.4077657 -5.847382046 -6.641115858
2009-11-01 -7.755346502 -3.876084719 -5.209201
2009-12-01 -6.968555147 -2.226234546 -3.854726629
2010-01-01 -6.117010041 -1.407978976 -2.919121585
2010-02-01 -5.386467599 -1.427193033 -3.095786479
2010-03-01 -4.672445547 -0.288322081 -1.986212545
2010-04-01 -3.930030098 0.808339147 -1.048046822
2010-05-01 -3.193602265 1.020375791 -0.762637511
2010-06-01 -2.602275061 0.671182038 -1.395193591
2010-07-01 -2.292499751 -0.181456002 -2.109452736
2010-08-01 -2.1725608 -1.219282802 -2.814097033
2010-09-01 -2.207888805 -2.114657967 -3.354942191
2010-10-01 -2.36049412 -2.776037413 -3.674540682
2010-11-01 -2.713319845 -3.567738381 -4.136812221
2010-12-01 -3.161467984 -3.714601876 -4.111550525
2011-01-01 -3.643022289 -3.627147544 -4.110344828
2011-02-01 -4.083452443 -3.546760699 -3.718979378
2011-03-01 -4.538044299 -4.342528936 -4.045961003
2011-04-01 -5.072604078 -4.543280796 -4.291609354
2011-05-01 -5.608134646 -4.425405327 -4.318552775
2011-06-01 -6.023028203 -3.925763927 -3.899532868
2011-07-01 -6.145359192 -3.094679488 -3.544080775
2011-08-01 -6.060689261 -2.324956103 -3.168749573
2011-09-01 -5.819621183 -1.654795969 -3.070327087
2011-10-01 -5.552168992 -1.404151003 -3.29770139
2011-11-01 -5.227448928 -1.376452419 -3.6313637
2011-12-01 -4.90563433 -1.009920398 -3.882528621
2012-01-01 -4.532842669 -0.412397323 -3.502589183
2012-02-01 -4.066911966 0.510389751 -2.708197197
2012-03-01 -3.480020152 1.876460191 -1.400682198
2012-04-01 -2.775056739 2.665821095 -0.495832136
2012-05-01 -1.986871318 3.35788238 0.255881726
2012-06-01 -1.1473099 3.760847111 0.859457555
2012-07-01 -0.351399448 4.121964249 1.36293382
2012-08-01 0.328961082 4.640626198 2.059383595
2012-09-01 1.004400221 5.27226783 2.989227367
2012-10-01 1.707342291 5.955219274 4.017050791
2012-11-01 2.440298606 6.942970718 5.334016244
2012-12-01 3.161607612 7.793784669 6.436339424
2013-01-01 3.861087743 8.687980462 7.557576209
2013-02-01 4.46483753 9.359647329 8.328358209
2013-03-01 4.942749777 9.907301029 8.906226998
2013-04-01 5.375025507 9.930857572 9.027226114
2013-05-01 5.864492628 9.744641282 9.081885856
2013-06-01 6.37972585 9.391405532 9.26171684
2013-07-01 6.779287684 9.455532894 9.710285556
2013-08-01 7.210934543 9.614120537 10.14442678
2013-09-01 7.527473281 9.921501085 10.60543087
2013-10-01 7.886539762 10.13855308 10.82864486
2013-11-01 8.026396007 10.06384074 10.69741595
2013-12-01 8.09049519 9.920713557 10.71105859
2014-01-01 8.008719438 9.853528536 10.43586723
2014-02-01 7.918312796 9.804422705 10.13364563
2014-03-01 7.807305378 8.937148756 8.941605839
2014-04-01 7.644076162 7.961543413 7.948599059
2014-05-01 7.442070679 7.01542671 7.032367087
2014-06-01 7.08958752 6.314030032 6.251997699
2014-07-01 6.813824271 5.732051151 5.591003854
2014-08-01 6.443613302 5.346467465 5.05677897
2014-09-01 6.119436582 5.062858956 4.741028371
2014-10-01 5.60451726 5.078702799 4.606417649
2014-11-01 5.302323354 5.032153353 4.580823293
2014-12-01 5.122058429 4.971525407 4.507785033
2015-01-01 5.098792388 4.984295682 4.31699818
2015-02-01 5.041746877 5.056735786 4.228435604
2015-03-01 4.987706333 5.166303983 4.280662572
2015-04-01 4.974617441 5.204095702 4.295269068
2015-05-01 4.94061589 5.194394528 4.35389847
2015-06-01 4.950761862 5.200097126 4.355935263
2015-07-01 4.987062762 5.086050159 4.403494077
2015-08-01 5.165451266 5.084856377 4.472977008
2015-09-01 5.425328305 5.294202212 4.663955991
2015-10-01 5.836244988 5.337935439 4.876879756
2015-11-01 6.10778884 5.405790117 5.088203528
2015-12-01 6.306440272 5.511194189 5.19644359
2016-01-01 6.461470271 5.637716351 5.281203008
2016-02-01 6.614430555 5.64137912 5.191142051
2016-03-01 6.603438447 5.605441431 5.062763995
2016-04-01 6.511016019 5.581190506 5.012649291
2016-05-01 6.36988144 5.415935393 4.940354961
2016-06-01 6.341075475 5.195208135 4.877486307
2016-07-01 6.176713943 5.183730026 4.88252149
2016-08-01 5.965353829 5.145134968 4.978849891
2016-09-01 5.731099491 5.16425488 5.084552102
2016-10-01 5.567741328 5.307315553 5.124250214
2016-11-01 5.522778879 5.426733631 5.190133607
2016-12-01 5.51066939 5.451718911 5.305236708
2017-01-01 5.45546327 5.505545613 5.501913958
2017-02-01 5.429424461 5.639874643 5.556823368
2017-03-01 5.574294053 5.692842595 5.622876557
2017-04-01 5.807173005 5.646704384 5.630567539
2017-05-01 5.966078848 5.668548286 5.655983143
2017-06-01 5.999278935 5.757469175 5.695123962
2017-07-01 6.072647459 5.769089383 5.731614031
2017-08-01 6.179090021 5.846891072 5.826300027
2017-09-01 6.269541227 5.915676275 5.914972274
2017-10-01 6.326198273 5.974982573 6.010216281
2017-11-01 6.372457905 6.057013959 6.09021332
2017-12-01 6.41531456 6.028087241 6.209327549
2018-01-01 6.450566535 5.981458963 6.200584859
2018-02-01 6.442340189 6.192765315 6.420927467
2018-03-01 6.506582401 6.35691456 6.454725781
2018-04-01 6.459995113 6.28551407 6.401824547
2018-05-01 6.467467836 6.150830944 6.25065603
2018-06-01 6.352810905 5.894311698 6.121599834
2018-07-01 6.427965243 5.733810987 5.911839181
2018-08-01 6.469837797 5.511926568 5.649601235
2018-09-01 6.498460824 5.348202527 5.415255107
2018-10-01 6.30242026 5.188808101 5.274759073
2018-11-01 6.068344079 4.90142895 4.942440522
2018-12-01 5.833732121 4.616814085 4.51876436
2019-01-01 5.683572576 4.424470223 4.125235837
2019-02-01 5.622545365 4.144110642 3.824276282
2019-03-01 5.502120272 3.841347918 3.630961374
2019-04-01 5.383849533 3.754649802 3.529235831
2019-05-01 5.163668246 3.716830617 3.40824895
2019-06-01 5.0590208 3.665788468 3.210154872
2019-07-01 4.821643317 3.612043809 3.117833618
2019-08-01 4.635536323 3.705029524 3.10232309
2019-09-01 4.408712717 3.807750334 3.169888494
2019-10-01 4.444080771 3.911144132 3.213711837
2019-11-01 4.612568187 4.120408021 3.412802886
2019-12-01 4.845810617 4.377671716 3.683439179
2020-01-01 5.062528433 4.61598388 4.015670911
2020-02-01 5.192411091 4.853411559 4.299760309
2020-03-01 5.317935853 5.214392627 4.577704344
2020-04-01 5.405446885 5.190134717 4.598199239
2020-05-01 5.36796971 4.890210138 4.365894435
2020-06-01 5.236061178 5.098152809 4.382924165
2020-07-01 5.235779638 5.724422752 4.84527302
2020-08-01 5.601313334 6.308479729 5.838450638
2020-09-01 6.48546233 7.06743469 7.046441382
2020-10-01 7.511693532 7.907022848 8.421002972
2020-11-01 8.57408195 8.647552755 9.53278959
2020-12-01 9.492837683 9.393970154 10.43158688
2021-01-01 10.27967191 9.883120337 11.32297552
2021-02-01 11.10481834 10.4195094 12.19866804
2021-03-01 11.95788792 11.42905062 13.48977695
2021-04-01 13.04546797 12.93560032 15.00184128
2021-05-01 14.57005883 14.66306351 16.92068287
2021-06-01 16.37730542 16.06181284 18.81539441
2021-07-01 17.85469313 16.68967951 19.83030959
2021-08-01 18.3645152 16.91312241 19.96786575
2021-09-01 17.8408008 16.94928525 19.68167188
2021-10-01 17.03454594 16.86077063 19.07579845
2021-11-01 16.31123491 16.90796777 18.80945207
2021-12-01 15.8769685 17.13492671 18.86679751
2022-01-01 15.96008831 17.43637497 19.25565659
2022-02-01 16.3243824 18.16189397 20.05601304
2022-03-01 16.94438087 19.05328416 20.79597101
2022-04-01 17.39627596 19.25504081 20.75011007
2022-05-01 17.41643394 18.78412863 19.95615752
2022-06-01 16.98325436 17.09585044 18.01822498
2022-07-01 16.02631719 14.9347524 15.65230491
2022-08-01 14.91074191 12.80182821 12.96130952
2022-09-01 13.74774313 11.10448316 10.68705102
2022-10-01 12.63009623 9.958420431 9.142731857
2022-11-01 11.34942184 8.589821103 7.546281201
2022-12-01 9.905183489 7.019742558 5.653266332
2023-01-01 7.985210382 5.851465985 3.840697922
2023-02-01 5.929141254 4.844554095 2.176108074
2023-03-01 3.891838665 3.589156537 0.782997763
2023-04-01 2.240508963 2.473036755 -0.06629761
2023-05-01 1.042398534 1.84850522 -0.358960971
2023-06-01 0.239676893 1.876590394 0.009732676
2023-07-01 0.038033458 2.673497677 1.002995962
2023-08-01 0.400293362 3.71524129 2.601765248
2023-09-01 1.126230604 4.499230878 3.973906676
2023-10-01 1.753104705 4.721672607 4.717423329
2023-11-01 2.240924078 5.078432458 5.079835613
2023-12-01 2.639846153 5.49344391 5.574995753
2024-01-01 3.12584698 5.770113639 6.027799597
2024-02-01 3.622688591    

Note: The data extend through February 2024 for Zillow and January 2024 for CoreLogic and Case-Shiller.

Source: Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; CoreLogic, Inc., Real Estate Data; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Return to text
Figure 1.18. Model-based measures of house price valuations rose to historically high levels

Percent

Date Owners' equivalent rent Market-based rents
1979 Q1 -2.328561  
1979 Q2 -1.685635  
1979 Q3 -1.503004  
1979 Q4 0.0383059  
1980 Q1 -2.184649  
1980 Q2 -2.550168  
1980 Q3 -2.877757  
1980 Q4 0.5533166  
1981 Q1 4.5848  
1981 Q2 0.0664275  
1981 Q3 -1.289051  
1981 Q4 1.248703  
1982 Q1 -0.3131989  
1982 Q2 1.949455  
1982 Q3 5.461934  
1982 Q4 3.047389  
1983 Q1 5.42987  
1983 Q2 4.274276  
1983 Q3 3.325319  
1983 Q4 -4.246031  
1984 Q1 -3.037798  
1984 Q2 -3.827118  
1984 Q3 -1.166914  
1984 Q4 0.5206347  
1985 Q1 2.437311  
1985 Q2 6.717873  
1985 Q3 8.63956  
1985 Q4 6.543857  
1986 Q1 7.516171  
1986 Q2 5.307324  
1986 Q3 4.33472  
1986 Q4 2.55331  
1987 Q1 0.3982872  
1987 Q2 -3.173941  
1987 Q3 -2.859047  
1987 Q4 -3.333158  
1988 Q1 -4.812042  
1988 Q2 -0.3477333  
1988 Q3 -0.64926  
1988 Q4 2.131853  
1989 Q1 -0.0680562  
1989 Q2 2.401153  
1989 Q3 2.695245  
1989 Q4 2.252002  
1990 Q1 2.551976  
1990 Q2 -0.0284703  
1990 Q3 -1.62042  
1990 Q4 -1.71129  
1991 Q1 0  
1991 Q2 0.1494393  
1991 Q3 -1.156216  
1991 Q4 -2.526549  
1992 Q1 -3.6495  
1992 Q2 -4.330353  
1992 Q3 -3.365326  
1992 Q4 -5.415796  
1993 Q1 -4.728534  
1993 Q2 -4.728434  
1993 Q3 -5.854865  
1993 Q4 -5.247293  
1994 Q1 -6.339446  
1994 Q2 -8.404653  
1994 Q3 -9.460835  
1994 Q4 -8.443079  
1995 Q1 -7.417401  
1995 Q2 -3.512418  
1995 Q3 -2.113634  
1995 Q4 -1.415692  
1996 Q1 -1.665956  
1996 Q2 -5.289855  
1996 Q3 -5.961552  
1996 Q4 -6.567489  
1997 Q1 -6.044544  
1997 Q2 -3.74582  
1997 Q3 -3.192604  
1997 Q4 -4.358187  
1998 Q1 -3.56808  
1998 Q2 -1.55668  
1998 Q3 -3.678106  
1998 Q4 -2.623319  
1999 Q1 -3.133943  
1999 Q2 -2.215113  
1999 Q3 -2.538522  
1999 Q4 -3.133983  
2000 Q1 -0.7522292  
2000 Q2 1.151486  
2000 Q3 4.338196  
2000 Q4 5.943393  
2001 Q1 7.334353  
2001 Q2 7.180398  
2001 Q3 6.158222  
2001 Q4 5.386293  
2002 Q1 4.094385  
2002 Q2 5.230755  
2002 Q3 5.918051  
2002 Q4 6.964344  
2003 Q1 8.492564  
2003 Q2 10.04663  
2003 Q3 8.8229  
2003 Q4 8.492189  
2004 Q1 10.04733 9.799056
2004 Q2 10.57121 9.595713
2004 Q3 14.72161 13.34027
2004 Q4 17.97048 16.82021
2005 Q1 18.41345 17.67251
2005 Q2 23.01278 20.71254
2005 Q3 24.8269 22.20213
2005 Q4 25.54626 22.83175
2006 Q1 27.01651 23.54704
2006 Q2 26.98872 24.49551
2006 Q3 27.02161 25.35833
2006 Q4 27.99141 26.78182
2007 Q1 27.21757 25.74147
2007 Q2 27.96719 25.31334
2007 Q3 26.21082 24.34096
2007 Q4 23.03292 22.01237
2008 Q1 20.85509 19.98795
2008 Q2 18.03287 17.27088
2008 Q3 14.46664 14.95821
2008 Q4 9.865533 12.36903
2009 Q1 4.512146 9.985521
2009 Q2 2.930059 9.649685
2009 Q3 0.0906214 6.986473
2009 Q4 -2.161666 4.308165
2010 Q1 -4.220772 2.12795
2010 Q2 -2.28953 3.364969
2010 Q3 -3.840134 0.9720666
2010 Q4 -6.12351 -2.056795
2011 Q1 -7.283694 -4.629424
2011 Q2 -10.55083 -7.634277
2011 Q3 -13.88537 -10.55994
2011 Q4 -16.08071 -13.17456
2012 Q1 -13.48346 -11.82207
2012 Q2 -15.11064 -13.01868
2012 Q3 -17.46763 -14.65411
2012 Q4 -17.1614 -14.24905
2013 Q1 -17.19753 -14.41889
2013 Q2 -15.87502 -13.21979
2013 Q3 -15.5505 -13.02808
2013 Q4 -13.94538 -11.76813
2014 Q1 -11.66011 -10.14328
2014 Q2 -10.74354 -9.846148
2014 Q3 -6.860609 -7.56479
2014 Q4 -6.837957 -7.586883
2015 Q1 -6.083412 -7.461777
2015 Q2 -6.117486 -7.624549
2015 Q3 -5.789221 -7.754744
2015 Q4 -5.373367 -7.429403
2016 Q1 -5.15113 -7.045554
2016 Q2 -4.675496 -6.239041
2016 Q3 -4.562839 -5.845804
2016 Q4 -4.415582 -5.217679
2017 Q1 -4.181386 -4.982132
2017 Q2 -3.728443 -4.206384
2017 Q3 -3.569429 -3.59534
2017 Q4 -0.7287614 -1.376178
2018 Q1 0.9423797 0.0731082
2018 Q2 1.061313 -0.1438186
2018 Q3 1.907646 0.6559647
2018 Q4 2.551779 0.934967
2019 Q1 4.714018 2.781403
2019 Q2 5.47606 3.05267
2019 Q3 5.272511 2.658322
2019 Q4 6.674325 3.920341
2020 Q1 5.783723 3.535926
2020 Q2 5.486619 4.916675
2020 Q3 4.740018 3.192214
2020 Q4 8.18415 4.265221
2021 Q1 10.29073 5.690253
2021 Q2 11.66831 6.222749
2021 Q3 14.41883 6.91874
2021 Q4 16.06343 6.296105
2022 Q1 21.74296 10.24788
2022 Q2 25.24798 13.1689
2022 Q3 23.35482 13.02584
2022 Q4 21.96592 13.35792
2023 Q1 21.08259 13.48899
2023 Q2 25.27201 16.72712
2023 Q3 25.53063 17.78634
2023 Q4 27.40991 19.42793
2024 Q1 25.94049  

Note: The owners' equivalent rent value for 2024:Q1 is based on monthly data through January 2024. The data for the market-based rents model begin in 2004:Q1 and extend through 2023:Q4. Valuation is measured as the deviation from the long-run relationship between the price-to-rent ratio and the real 10-year Treasury yield.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text
Figure 1.19. House price-to-rent ratios remained elevated across geographic areas

Jan. 2010 = 100

Date Median Bottom Line Middle 80% Top Line Middle 80%
1996-01-01 81.96810181 72.65486457 104.969915
1996-02-01 81.66895602 72.62558324 104.7978863
1996-03-01 81.52527712 72.32167102 104.5615884
1996-04-01 81.73350792 72.2240014 105.019075
1996-05-01 81.8119612 72.09845948 104.5910563
1996-06-01 81.8859586 71.99245662 104.4575761
1996-07-01 81.90950589 71.9352333 104.371261
1996-08-01 81.96941588 71.76502182 104.3818173
1996-09-01 81.99644219 71.63861396 104.1920208
1996-10-01 82.02331059 71.41663218 104.2209231
1996-11-01 82.10493491 71.3795293 103.9959144
1996-12-01 82.16607602 71.45694157 103.9873979
1997-01-01 82.28228954 71.50533687 103.530985
1997-02-01 82.37928268 71.50860409 103.5974158
1997-03-01 82.61138942 71.62387406 103.3559888
1997-04-01 82.96678272 71.75737791 103.0254522
1997-05-01 83.14072796 71.98723125 103.0807722
1997-06-01 83.30840619 71.97115885 102.7812045
1997-07-01 85.65732286 72.03981725 102.1170548
1997-08-01 85.75001345 72.15650021 102.086914
1997-09-01 85.85277152 72.18009132 102.4010252
1997-10-01 85.93123292 72.20917736 102.4772754
1997-11-01 85.93847381 72.39361395 102.7555311
1997-12-01 86.13122756 72.48502265 102.9762552
1998-01-01 84.16007963 73.15267815 102.5562758
1998-02-01 84.23191797 73.64556354 102.7978035
1998-03-01 84.31385189 74.05714613 103.2374384
1998-04-01 84.2593327 74.40531103 102.5015629
1998-05-01 84.22598099 74.54723798 102.727975
1998-06-01 84.18185474 74.4264374 102.4548629
1998-07-01 84.26752247 74.31132373 102.7824344
1998-08-01 84.5248614 74.3209314 103.1154856
1998-09-01 84.88056704 74.12141602 103.3603356
1998-10-01 85.17546471 74.11688879 103.5785176
1998-11-01 85.41911153 74.07218442 103.3690892
1998-12-01 85.62860216 74.03763218 103.7682103
1999-01-01 85.95823335 74.10532969 104.0898239
1999-02-01 86.45782487 74.10129404 104.756906
1999-03-01 87.09532205 74.49161651 105.2748021
1999-04-01 87.91505509 74.86713826 105.7966
1999-05-01 88.67945281 75.29579569 106.5563591
1999-06-01 89.23303695 75.83266846 107.2106688
1999-07-01 89.776677 76.39234786 107.6633984
1999-08-01 90.16399365 76.73733493 107.8698648
1999-09-01 90.41443712 77.21667856 107.8204246
1999-10-01 90.76234468 77.71992605 107.9155225
1999-11-01 90.83468976 78.08721573 108.031365
1999-12-01 91.37959994 78.55423164 108.4906725
2000-01-01 91.71175824 78.80724044 108.5734745
2000-02-01 91.73284799 79.18162894 108.5394832
2000-03-01 91.54537574 79.54760782 108.2945089
2000-04-01 92.14326239 80.02060217 108.3510397
2000-05-01 92.53435856 80.83986035 108.4503425
2000-06-01 92.97222788 81.35680378 108.5752116
2000-07-01 93.64382826 82.06246684 108.7272608
2000-08-01 94.19644236 82.69131006 108.7901506
2000-09-01 95.0527836 83.1002369 108.8479776
2000-10-01 95.55319506 83.75657932 108.8772525
2000-11-01 95.66518291 84.22846978 108.9291958
2000-12-01 96.32525308 84.62213483 108.9412407
2001-01-01 97.06074582 84.72788767 108.8066113
2001-02-01 98.06883863 85.10965948 108.5853939
2001-03-01 98.54694204 85.60732925 108.4910333
2001-04-01 99.04917413 86.15626352 108.6061121
2001-05-01 99.12340247 86.52311897 109.3905674
2001-06-01 98.78664777 87.01056953 110.0546901
2001-07-01 99.02201121 87.62223872 110.884666
2001-08-01 98.8653342 88.03538452 111.8437997
2001-09-01 98.89073573 88.24083124 112.6910206
2001-10-01 98.88572166 88.83514687 113.7389525
2001-11-01 98.71552357 89.02982034 114.5898244
2001-12-01 98.7599837 88.71801778 114.5679413
2002-01-01 98.73820374 88.58070135 114.80089
2002-02-01 98.98161384 88.50221116 115.005748
2002-03-01 99.22886533 88.56819136 115.3551679
2002-04-01 99.84596071 88.77560502 114.6568064
2002-05-01 100.3976558 89.2223808 114.9057828
2002-06-01 101.1747839 89.9592425 115.1236577
2002-07-01 101.9832661 90.65555765 114.8594023
2002-08-01 102.0515726 90.7588075 115.1401704
2002-09-01 102.0898346 90.89996627 115.6797665
2002-10-01 102.3986601 91.13747231 116.6403438
2002-11-01 102.6915074 91.32993579 116.4042321
2002-12-01 103.3847965 91.5058393 116.437568
2003-01-01 103.7649223 91.72724505 116.5977178
2003-02-01 104.5872947 91.87343959 116.830751
2003-03-01 105.0069619 92.14090738 118.6402504
2003-04-01 105.5092823 92.40816026 120.4227252
2003-05-01 106.0058473 92.74913691 122.0736704
2003-06-01 106.9076756 93.02171557 123.4640674
2003-07-01 107.3882382 93.37941636 125.1393925
2003-08-01 107.9376878 93.49743529 126.7430336
2003-09-01 108.4922676 94.04087841 129.2963336
2003-10-01 109.1545122 95.03907803 130.6571127
2003-11-01 109.8543089 96.17060077 132.4129006
2003-12-01 110.6211025 97.17210258 133.6315691
2004-01-01 111.1604193 98.00315276 135.1085337
2004-02-01 111.8378431 98.94296107 137.7100712
2004-03-01 112.4602078 99.95481735 140.1433974
2004-04-01 113.1675164 101.0882888 142.7781431
2004-05-01 114.3109352 102.7525613 145.0483322
2004-06-01 115.6653985 103.6469953 149.2276399
2004-07-01 116.8198407 104.6054871 152.6561131
2004-08-01 118.0159158 105.704818 155.0182567
2004-09-01 119.288362 106.261129 157.3897918
2004-10-01 120.2316733 106.4376294 159.8848497
2004-11-01 121.584737 106.553951 160.8839709
2004-12-01 122.4532022 106.3581206 162.9139175
2005-01-01 122.9610971 107.0103373 164.1625035
2005-02-01 123.5906151 107.1074655 166.044515
2005-03-01 124.0678456 106.8726801 168.1010283
2005-04-01 124.8963 107.6190458 169.9667377
2005-05-01 125.4041327 107.932071 172.9041712
2005-06-01 125.6817514 108.6397626 174.6646597
2005-07-01 126.4506479 108.3332201 174.6530292
2005-08-01 127.3511706 108.7096358 174.2718409
2005-09-01 128.065186 109.521111 173.3999507
2005-10-01 127.9786258 110.9366388 173.8244435
2005-11-01 128.4363428 112.4835566 173.6168511
2005-12-01 128.8590219 112.8698859 174.139296
2006-01-01 129.3692967 112.9222164 174.6077498
2006-02-01 129.8841229 112.9082787 174.5241123
2006-03-01 130.8521646 112.6235234 173.7761588
2006-04-01 131.2360283 112.2896912 174.2504095
2006-05-01 130.9526473 111.9793302 173.8460266
2006-06-01 130.8783449 111.7030141 172.3334671
2006-07-01 130.8040869 111.349222 171.6049164
2006-08-01 130.5661465 111.1939275 170.8032322
2006-09-01 130.4050544 110.9152832 170.1691578
2006-10-01 129.9316244 111.0454759 169.3045998
2006-11-01 129.6195963 111.5081268 168.2106174
2006-12-01 129.3431807 112.5487821 167.2628089
2007-01-01 129.4734275 112.7673308 165.3813781
2007-02-01 129.4725438 112.9217411 164.3238788
2007-03-01 130.2213249 112.6450985 163.5219565
2007-04-01 130.6106183 112.170072 162.5769976
2007-05-01 130.5510478 112.7841908 161.6778519
2007-06-01 130.7549767 112.8192882 161.0305959
2007-07-01 129.8562323 112.47316 159.0488129
2007-08-01 128.841522 112.0988276 156.6200006
2007-09-01 128.5297296 111.7012413 154.1533143
2007-10-01 128.0213876 111.2169832 151.7839718
2007-11-01 127.2819921 110.7316188 149.5801087
2007-12-01 126.3674262 110.1627678 147.2390101
2008-01-01 125.4089002 109.4244107 144.7188747
2008-02-01 124.2391924 109.1286908 142.0266486
2008-03-01 123.2556528 108.5579774 139.2915071
2008-04-01 122.2536745 107.9728973 136.4806756
2008-05-01 121.0420487 107.3078192 133.729195
2008-06-01 119.4188465 106.6249429 131.1569656
2008-07-01 117.5430171 106.1478793 128.6913913
2008-08-01 115.6627861 105.6413769 126.6172983
2008-09-01 112.7716552 105.098058 124.5082428
2008-10-01 111.3430535 104.4577893 122.4258155
2008-11-01 109.7819276 103.8312099 120.1391481
2008-12-01 108.3955832 102.8147959 117.7973959
2009-01-01 107.2363606 101.2074844 115.4556904
2009-02-01 106.0659547 100.0006053 113.4020914
2009-03-01 104.8044508 99.83941193 111.3494044
2009-04-01 103.9216896 99.60674329 109.2336655
2009-05-01 103.0067907 99.36263775 107.3384551
2009-06-01 101.9292629 99.2184274 105.6275819
2009-07-01 101.2594508 98.80574569 104.2652544
2009-08-01 100.4457755 98.19337915 103.0266035
2009-09-01 100.3899818 97.98435091 102.067589
2009-10-01 100.1487474 98.21269205 101.2934624
2009-11-01 100.1617233 98.672572 100.9681761
2009-12-01 100.0575161 99.52161129 100.6022505
2010-01-01 100 100 100
2010-02-01 99.93893143 99.55481675 100.5535928
2010-03-01 100.1046602 99.42436025 100.8151261
2010-04-01 99.93771391 98.96741026 101.1296336
2010-05-01 99.8751165 98.77075964 101.5163017
2010-06-01 99.64187788 98.7144096 101.7001889
2010-07-01 99.32772098 98.03425888 101.6079834
2010-08-01 98.87394516 97.16717946 100.5039592
2010-09-01 98.30373719 96.08059857 100.0169513
2010-10-01 97.71779181 94.88720661 99.70488446
2010-11-01 97.05213279 93.85116961 99.1945389
2010-12-01 96.40975745 93.00559494 98.77195121
2011-01-01 95.77883771 92.34467172 98.32890778
2011-02-01 95.18527739 90.93822834 97.89628726
2011-03-01 94.60056551 90.40067886 97.19770131
2011-04-01 94.12284491 89.40567887 96.87147009
2011-05-01 93.36049532 88.54921033 96.25456064
2011-06-01 92.51660386 86.97753975 95.81932961
2011-07-01 91.85714537 85.935292 94.98286246
2011-08-01 91.12146732 85.18416027 94.53851769
2011-09-01 90.43401595 84.90173025 94.09164764
2011-10-01 89.86103669 84.52095756 93.62536838
2011-11-01 89.33212349 84.10318435 93.33844735
2011-12-01 88.89432775 83.33186588 93.17327674
2012-01-01 88.54061625 82.67517341 92.86856865
2012-02-01 88.17712786 81.99678309 92.69574988
2012-03-01 88.06479602 81.98964347 92.75671609
2012-04-01 87.56822587 82.11986195 92.78943415
2012-05-01 87.45332503 82.22171359 92.90740513
2012-06-01 87.84571129 82.70213821 92.99164112
2012-07-01 88.42403035 83.39748451 93.08248623
2012-08-01 89.33859046 83.56454342 93.413427
2012-09-01 90.19667827 83.78729318 93.33499941
2012-10-01 90.70917882 83.9760534 94.05622591
2012-11-01 90.91961619 84.32675428 94.97064238
2012-12-01 90.87983155 84.91566497 96.07863308
2013-01-01 91.28499474 85.24103618 96.9191932
2013-02-01 91.44599559 85.56350317 98.1666758
2013-03-01 91.86089873 85.54653792 98.94153812
2013-04-01 92.28950158 85.54711677 100.0250462
2013-05-01 92.765959 85.50867675 101.6068354
2013-06-01 93.379331 85.46968866 103.0696056
2013-07-01 94.05752489 85.46116619 104.8347398
2013-08-01 94.7821221 85.61485215 106.4609048
2013-09-01 95.4525965 85.79090846 107.74434
2013-10-01 96.30262693 86.10054126 108.8579158
2013-11-01 96.89869914 86.31303959 109.3491056
2013-12-01 97.71800836 86.83619057 109.8073745
2014-01-01 98.48000709 87.27706901 110.148761
2014-02-01 99.21061387 87.46218861 110.4657841
2014-03-01 99.80067416 87.58398313 110.7451191
2014-04-01 100.1145009 87.95184472 111.0209432
2014-05-01 100.5519598 88.18839791 111.5839569
2014-06-01 100.7196578 88.41805521 112.0237475
2014-07-01 101.0274245 88.77936966 112.4478002
2014-08-01 101.0673487 88.91594162 113.429035
2014-09-01 101.2969969 89.00936156 114.1962791
2014-10-01 101.8291622 88.91603996 114.883323
2014-11-01 102.2395 89.06670202 115.1824603
2014-12-01 102.4292722 89.28014356 115.9338568
2015-01-01 102.375274 89.29016267 116.643628
2015-02-01 102.7073843 88.74152425 117.1281023
2015-03-01 102.6301376 88.68028832 117.4505392
2015-04-01 102.8071149 88.5546257 118.065275
2015-05-01 103.0279521 88.54978919 119.0789028
2015-06-01 103.1348736 88.36347252 119.5881222
2015-07-01 103.6424881 88.52032179 120.2556318
2015-08-01 104.2647267 88.97168044 120.8870935
2015-09-01 104.8397507 89.2588726 121.5378529
2015-10-01 105.2628641 89.73598153 122.3105352
2015-11-01 105.6640037 89.66048103 122.9853237
2015-12-01 106.08538 89.58210006 123.3369653
2016-01-01 106.499655 89.83299527 123.7975488
2016-02-01 106.8839835 89.68747325 124.2611086
2016-03-01 107.2224331 89.62292297 124.611959
2016-04-01 107.5620875 89.61780176 124.6096758
2016-05-01 107.7587706 89.35217521 125.3947151
2016-06-01 108.1680106 89.7551298 126.0844254
2016-07-01 108.2372349 90.01166266 126.5495389
2016-08-01 108.1761533 90.04784898 126.7446068
2016-09-01 108.0166935 90.29942873 127.0817525
2016-10-01 108.105304 90.57056719 127.41296
2016-11-01 108.4208874 90.78099631 127.0776958
2016-12-01 109.1181693 90.96639646 127.0213328
2017-01-01 109.7149696 91.30613261 127.1138194
2017-02-01 110.2732063 90.7157962 127.5926974
2017-03-01 110.7852299 90.62071839 127.9956219
2017-04-01 111.4139912 90.48705357 128.2412925
2017-05-01 111.9033523 90.74572874 128.4884713
2017-06-01 112.0264767 91.19327927 129.1374933
2017-07-01 112.4821325 91.43771246 129.644283
2017-08-01 113.0609135 91.64120661 130.1280259
2017-09-01 113.6025779 91.89683857 130.6020968
2017-10-01 114.0059388 92.15048965 131.0298327
2017-11-01 114.2068412 92.43879428 131.6216449
2017-12-01 114.3021089 92.80338695 132.1791067
2018-01-01 114.5531738 93.04547315 132.7643152
2018-02-01 114.9286374 93.20077077 133.1131727
2018-03-01 115.4885488 93.45269319 133.5596504
2018-04-01 115.961127 93.45352055 133.8378634
2018-05-01 116.4446047 93.52482968 134.3347301
2018-06-01 116.3594308 93.33220422 133.9499004
2018-07-01 116.777281 93.46394933 134.6089142
2018-08-01 116.950095 93.71384988 135.2547548
2018-09-01 116.9258362 93.89482818 135.6146585
2018-10-01 116.7529814 94.01176673 135.4908958
2018-11-01 116.4634188 94.07086313 135.3549974
2018-12-01 115.9613283 93.90874179 135.4654029
2019-01-01 115.9063702 93.99738531 135.3353145
2019-02-01 115.501863 94.05838793 134.8081022
2019-03-01 115.0174707 94.05539132 134.3975819
2019-04-01 114.6087636 94.09115752 133.9573649
2019-05-01 114.2691082 94.2535739 133.5685501
2019-06-01 114.1393298 94.44049966 133.0244513
2019-07-01 113.9376737 94.53541991 132.8775822
2019-08-01 113.7697819 94.59502811 133.369628
2019-09-01 113.6356652 94.71417032 133.5919769
2019-10-01 113.9423206 94.87418491 134.2977386
2019-11-01 113.8752973 94.74366275 135.1794765
2019-12-01 114.0826809 94.96647935 135.7138068
2020-01-01 114.0822613 94.96186635 135.769719
2020-02-01 114.2709567 94.92806034 135.720926
2020-03-01 114.5794846 94.83698902 135.9580295
2020-04-01 114.4989491 94.99386541 136.8804292
2020-05-01 114.2827292 94.52817325 135.9212893
2020-06-01 114.2218181 94.24854834 135.3134033
2020-07-01 114.4860897 94.15353601 134.8489663
2020-08-01 115.1460764 94.06335436 135.3733314
2020-09-01 116.5935314 95.05513533 136.7651872
2020-10-01 118.5280548 95.98135239 138.3268123
2020-11-01 120.6618809 97.1858156 140.3121513
2020-12-01 122.3576687 98.34754989 141.5221747
2021-01-01 124.1555563 99.19725243 142.9418331
2021-02-01 125.7761517 100.0901513 144.5157441
2021-03-01 126.9235844 100.8446126 145.7355496
2021-04-01 128.1761702 101.4213333 147.2707757
2021-05-01 129.828521 102.1573976 149.2906812
2021-06-01 131.9418531 102.8843662 151.3037954
2021-07-01 133.336348 103.4794337 153.8738051
2021-08-01 134.4270017 104.1095203 155.8802618
2021-09-01 134.7633795 104.1143105 156.6770638
2021-10-01 135.1024125 104.4794122 157.6631239
2021-11-01 136.0555273 104.1799816 159.213585
2021-12-01 137.1681878 104.7701031 160.5638395
2022-01-01 138.3608807 105.4614098 161.9677505
2022-02-01 141.2459103 106.092597 164.6256503
2022-03-01 143.7007579 107.0487321 167.8943553
2022-04-01 145.7390424 107.9804272 170.6464581
2022-05-01 147.2122114 108.4100506 171.9912372
2022-06-01 147.4769491 108.3980793 172.8858361
2022-07-01 147.0297834 107.9308226 170.7363588
2022-08-01 145.4512297 107.1794057 167.5741337
2022-09-01 143.5231811 106.4942208 163.878729
2022-10-01 141.8830523 105.2436309 161.5316757
2022-11-01 139.9212928 104.722753 158.6492215
2022-12-01 138.3127793 104.0635458 156.2200462
2023-01-01 135.7336045 103.5679791 153.9500948
2023-02-01 134.1681169 102.8861267 152.0970987
2023-03-01 132.9278497 102.0494399 149.5313834
2023-04-01 132.1970177 101.9710579 147.9385009
2023-05-01 131.7921943 102.0215496 146.4176403
2023-06-01 131.677443 102.231954 146.2066047
2023-07-01 132.2807087 102.7917701 147.301773
2023-08-01 133.0125705 103.2392447 149.029695
2023-09-01 133.8615 103.7894012 150.5706548
2023-10-01 135.0724747 103.8689526 151.8480741
2023-11-01 135.1280792 103.8208419 151.4011311
2023-12-01 135.0149542 103.9608471 150.9860535
2024-01-01 134.8281312 103.7736802 150.3642566
2024-02-01 134.7002002 103.7964542 150.2293231

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted. Percentiles are based on 19 large metropolitan statistical areas.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text
Figure 1.20. Farmland prices increased to near-historical highs

2022 dollars per acre

Year Midwest index U.S.
1967 2905.35469  
1968 3047.404571  
1969 2988.372412  
1970 2858.431564  
1971 2671.737261  
1972 2675.94041  
1973 2877.904687  
1974 3474.605873  
1975 3870.838019  
1976 4547.409767  
1977 5457.355434  
1978 5698.989481  
1979 5783.039843  
1980 5787.503559  
1981 5505.661776  
1982 5017.253022  
1983 4259.517449  
1984 3743.901391  
1985 2669.788496  
1986 2120.424855  
1987 1803.959248  
1988 1976.048887  
1989 2162.131276  
1990 2170.642615  
1991 2123.431927  
1992 2129.840276  
1993 2132.099871  
1994 2585.524755  
1995 2494.933656  
1996 2664.333533  
1997 2451.878237 2315.015574
1998 2591.421515 2405.403098
1999 2616.360107 2459.174587
2000 2581.674163 2481.039055
2001 2563.284034 2495.711226
2002 2601.937381 2586.659794
2003 2636.126427 2639.873641
2004 2755.041967 2710.689708
2005 3183.313825 3086.966968
2006 3433.33306 3469.684748
2007 3804.599164 3570.438643
2008 4245.393009 3751.891078
2009 4034.643108 3641.211702
2010 4249.587084 3622.833995
2011 4932.015016 3876.816733
2012 5775.696571 4269.648494
2013 6613.272705 4785.770551
2014 7114.65293 5055.806033
2015 6831.782164 5062.035407
2016 6510.570247 4925.532583
2017 6309.819243 4810.801094
2018 6157.384777 4719.565849
2019 6042.621988 4692.757398
2020 5912.941136 4634.763556
2021 6181.428783 4773.002503
2022 6741.775849 5050
2023 7076.262464 5248.913365

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1997. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. Values are given in real terms. The median value is 3575.17 2023 dollars per acre.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 1.21. Farmland prices grew faster than rents

Ratio

Year Midwest index U.S.
1967 14.13418315  
1968 14.19879016  
1969 14.19528763  
1970 13.99434936  
1971 13.50686423  
1972 13.4008375  
1973 14.17058401  
1974 14.52808886  
1975 14.60469881  
1976 16.1613832  
1977 18.02016694  
1978 19.56115904  
1979 20.57529648  
1980 21.54630274  
1981 21.24967971  
1982 19.55679439  
1983 17.41888327  
1984 15.94691892  
1985 12.99502491  
1986 11.89889043  
1987 11.72150084  
1988 12.5228119  
1989 13.29508303  
1990 13.40922896  
1991 13.50559036  
1992 13.73775651  
1993 13.88773898  
1994 17.97416274  
1995 17.34956535  
1996 18.36206647  
1997 16.6669417  
1998 17.46987848 20.15037594
1999 18.1991863 20.74074074
2000 17.83993333 20.85714286
2001 17.9534721 21.26760563
2002 18.17789453 22.20670391
2003 18.63356997 22.73972603
2004 19.44520488 22.87581699
2005 22.49879125 26.41025641
2006 24.60507286 30.06289308
2007 25.78446123 32.64516129
2008 26.32248824 32.28070175
2009 24.43030238 26.96969697
2010 25.43891798 26.47058824
2011 27.83627176 26.84684685
2012 28.47719386 26.8
2013 30.44885464 28.01470588
2014 32.18539376 29.0070922
2015 31.64414073 28.47222222
2016 32.1020429 29.70588235
2017 32.28286079 29.63235294
2018 31.88732337 29.34782609
2019 32.04525701 29.28571429
2020 31.89708625 29.49640288
2021 33.8072955 31.34751773
2022 37.07418013 34.12162162
2023 38.31561184 35.22580645

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1998. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. The median value is 18.18 ratio.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Return to text
Figure 2.1. The total debt of businesses and households relative to GDP declined further

Ratio

Date Private Nonfinancial-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio
1980 Q1 0.976904068
1980 Q2 0.98646041
1980 Q3 0.985762212
1980 Q4 0.970645009
1981 Q1 0.945661074
1981 Q2 0.962580932
1981 Q3 0.956740597
1981 Q4 0.971714066
1982 Q1 0.992005624
1982 Q2 0.994518561
1982 Q3 0.998200707
1982 Q4 1.001775133
1983 Q1 0.998792254
1983 Q2 0.992476071
1983 Q3 0.989277018
1983 Q4 0.990527593
1984 Q1 0.994903602
1984 Q2 1.005821277
1984 Q3 1.017384587
1984 Q4 1.037319777
1985 Q1 1.054761655
1985 Q2 1.069232089
1985 Q3 1.078198256
1985 Q4 1.104356028
1986 Q1 1.115051064
1986 Q2 1.133598587
1986 Q3 1.151751352
1986 Q4 1.173860208
1987 Q1 1.178528621
1987 Q2 1.185741007
1987 Q3 1.19426089
1987 Q4 1.189125626
1988 Q1 1.202810675
1988 Q2 1.204993376
1988 Q3 1.209659397
1988 Q4 1.211427002
1989 Q1 1.211025152
1989 Q2 1.215358391
1989 Q3 1.217402923
1989 Q4 1.229449386
1990 Q1 1.2283176
1990 Q2 1.226584506
1990 Q3 1.228327434
1990 Q4 1.242033076
1991 Q1 1.24132246
1991 Q2 1.231897177
1991 Q3 1.21616639
1991 Q4 1.210211444
1992 Q1 1.20013792
1992 Q2 1.184780991
1992 Q3 1.175797946
1992 Q4 1.163609524
1993 Q1 1.164038298
1993 Q2 1.164346898
1993 Q3 1.167696101
1993 Q4 1.162162174
1994 Q1 1.164643802
1994 Q2 1.161260953
1994 Q3 1.165256255
1994 Q4 1.166848417
1995 Q1 1.175580864
1995 Q2 1.187237906
1995 Q3 1.189945237
1995 Q4 1.193935969
1996 Q1 1.200955637
1996 Q2 1.197309793
1996 Q3 1.199612048
1996 Q4 1.195841265
1997 Q1 1.201214925
1997 Q2 1.200485513
1997 Q3 1.206743691
1997 Q4 1.214129696
1998 Q1 1.230457183
1998 Q2 1.249978622
1998 Q3 1.255379808
1998 Q4 1.261801308
1999 Q1 1.278941426
1999 Q2 1.289533613
1999 Q3 1.303705852
1999 Q4 1.303132603
2000 Q1 1.323126291
2000 Q2 1.320472847
2000 Q3 1.337172356
2000 Q4 1.343216737
2001 Q1 1.354573648
2001 Q2 1.367271346
2001 Q3 1.396953865
2001 Q4 1.403711001
2002 Q1 1.410632911
2002 Q2 1.414383612
2002 Q3 1.423455759
2002 Q4 1.438807431
2003 Q1 1.446520798
2003 Q2 1.461687707
2003 Q3 1.455122559
2003 Q4 1.453453779
2004 Q1 1.467307147
2004 Q2 1.474258544
2004 Q3 1.482951299
2004 Q4 1.494436592
2005 Q1 1.49676329
2005 Q2 1.516548765
2005 Q3 1.526075122
2005 Q4 1.542027726
2006 Q1 1.555471441
2006 Q2 1.579646276
2006 Q3 1.59796183
2006 Q4 1.614701173
2007 Q1 1.627087848
2007 Q2 1.648463882
2007 Q3 1.666734344
2007 Q4 1.680610365
2008 Q1 1.706276215
2008 Q2 1.69876207
2008 Q3 1.710256575
2008 Q4 1.726472424
2009 Q1 1.738358143
2009 Q2 1.736508044
2009 Q3 1.715593912
2009 Q4 1.675388358
2010 Q1 1.657222507
2010 Q2 1.624430473
2010 Q3 1.603557535
2010 Q4 1.579593264
2011 Q1 1.576885907
2011 Q2 1.557872103
2011 Q3 1.550428498
2011 Q4 1.536455944
2012 Q1 1.519876182
2012 Q2 1.511757953
2012 Q3 1.510359023
2012 Q4 1.511051149
2013 Q1 1.496914649
2013 Q2 1.500308781
2013 Q3 1.492753381
2013 Q4 1.489572633
2014 Q1 1.503943135
2014 Q2 1.489750497
2014 Q3 1.473249837
2014 Q4 1.481398837
2015 Q1 1.484436402
2015 Q2 1.488060417
2015 Q3 1.492048746
2015 Q4 1.497912871
2016 Q1 1.510865445
2016 Q2 1.509490906
2016 Q3 1.511727134
2016 Q4 1.503756042
2017 Q1 1.510606178
2017 Q2 1.517952616
2017 Q3 1.514003919
2017 Q4 1.510801669
2018 Q1 1.503751841
2018 Q2 1.512450517
2018 Q3 1.512004579
2018 Q4 1.517027142
2019 Q1 1.520145746
2019 Q2 1.515153047
2019 Q3 1.510869731
2019 Q4 1.507230216
2020 Q1 1.565624244
2020 Q2 1.739051741
2020 Q3 1.610144339
2020 Q4 1.59546032
2021 Q1 1.575881481
2021 Q2 1.572259396
2021 Q3 1.559444043
2021 Q4 1.535972694
2022 Q1 1.543151344
2022 Q2 1.539269839
2022 Q3 1.532318414
2022 Q4 1.521901493
2023 Q1 1.512209606
2023 Q2 1.506812693
2023 Q3 1.485192282
2023 Q4 1.46944232

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text
Figure 2.2. Both business and household debt-to-GDP ratios decreased

Ratio

Date Nonfinancial business Household
1980 Q1 0.497089082 0.479814986
1980 Q2 0.503135465 0.483324944
1980 Q3 0.502212336 0.483549876
1980 Q4 0.494959232 0.475685777
1981 Q1 0.483995614 0.46166546
1981 Q2 0.496222963 0.466357969
1981 Q3 0.497047944 0.459692653
1981 Q4 0.506418521 0.465295545
1982 Q1 0.520148111 0.471857513
1982 Q2 0.524987605 0.469530956
1982 Q3 0.532621657 0.46557905
1982 Q4 0.532162098 0.469613036
1983 Q1 0.535836654 0.4629556
1983 Q2 0.530769678 0.461706393
1983 Q3 0.528241107 0.461035911
1983 Q4 0.526836335 0.463691258
1984 Q1 0.530954281 0.463949321
1984 Q2 0.539386587 0.46643469
1984 Q3 0.548403012 0.468981576
1984 Q4 0.560616466 0.476703312
1985 Q1 0.563395355 0.4913663
1985 Q2 0.570321175 0.498910914
1985 Q3 0.571316774 0.506881482
1985 Q4 0.580125893 0.524230136
1986 Q1 0.586240493 0.528810571
1986 Q2 0.59760436 0.535994227
1986 Q3 0.606116672 0.54563468
1986 Q4 0.617304907 0.556555302
1987 Q1 0.62231108 0.556217541
1987 Q2 0.622555221 0.563185787
1987 Q3 0.626249065 0.568011825
1987 Q4 0.626274113 0.562851513
1988 Q1 0.632230398 0.570580277
1988 Q2 0.633170753 0.571822623
1988 Q3 0.634549063 0.575110334
1988 Q4 0.636912912 0.57451409
1989 Q1 0.636353838 0.574671313
1989 Q2 0.637711465 0.577646926
1989 Q3 0.635508874 0.581894049
1989 Q4 0.640293414 0.589155972
1990 Q1 0.635767256 0.592550344
1990 Q2 0.632316492 0.594268014
1990 Q3 0.630873952 0.597453482
1990 Q4 0.634807742 0.607225334
1991 Q1 0.627908241 0.613414219
1991 Q2 0.618510422 0.613386755
1991 Q3 0.605622809 0.610543581
1991 Q4 0.594806482 0.615404962
1992 Q1 0.586127018 0.614010902
1992 Q2 0.575229691 0.6095513
1992 Q3 0.567154653 0.608643293
1992 Q4 0.5564855 0.607124024
1993 Q1 0.555042686 0.608995612
1993 Q2 0.553508851 0.610838047
1993 Q3 0.553012904 0.614683197
1993 Q4 0.548289942 0.613872232
1994 Q1 0.549388868 0.615254934
1994 Q2 0.546313467 0.614947486
1994 Q3 0.547564852 0.617691403
1994 Q4 0.54577905 0.621069367
1995 Q1 0.550259635 0.625321229
1995 Q2 0.555906565 0.631331341
1995 Q3 0.554808623 0.635136614
1995 Q4 0.556647041 0.637288928
1996 Q1 0.555910375 0.645045262
1996 Q2 0.554180091 0.643129703
1996 Q3 0.555589389 0.644022659
1996 Q4 0.552173541 0.643667724
1997 Q1 0.554993121 0.646221804
1997 Q2 0.55641899 0.644066523
1997 Q3 0.562073587 0.644670103
1997 Q4 0.567909402 0.646220294
1998 Q1 0.579247683 0.651209499
1998 Q2 0.592469602 0.65750902
1998 Q3 0.59886119 0.656518618
1998 Q4 0.60329217 0.658509138
1999 Q1 0.61364313 0.665298296
1999 Q2 0.617272661 0.672260952
1999 Q3 0.628357387 0.675348465
1999 Q4 0.627213737 0.675918866
2000 Q1 0.637622562 0.685503729
2000 Q2 0.638841323 0.681631524
2000 Q3 0.643998133 0.693174222
2000 Q4 0.647306316 0.695910421
2001 Q1 0.649466282 0.705107366
2001 Q2 0.653510992 0.713760355
2001 Q3 0.660255123 0.736698742
2001 Q4 0.662128434 0.741582567
2002 Q1 0.659673854 0.750959058
2002 Q2 0.656778992 0.75760462
2002 Q3 0.654087021 0.769368739
2002 Q4 0.653769362 0.785038069
2003 Q1 0.648950536 0.797570263
2003 Q2 0.64248213 0.819205577
2003 Q3 0.633244541 0.821878019
2003 Q4 0.623595997 0.829857782
2004 Q1 0.627886466 0.839420681
2004 Q2 0.623834014 0.85042453
2004 Q3 0.62473289 0.858218409
2004 Q4 0.6243385 0.870098092
2005 Q1 0.624188884 0.872574406
2005 Q2 0.629163153 0.887385612
2005 Q3 0.628729368 0.897345754
2005 Q4 0.634523383 0.907504343
2006 Q1 0.63745849 0.918012951
2006 Q2 0.645914065 0.933732211
2006 Q3 0.651236739 0.946725091
2006 Q4 0.661009889 0.953691284
2007 Q1 0.67066911 0.956418739
2007 Q2 0.683334673 0.965129208
2007 Q3 0.69807919 0.968655154
2007 Q4 0.709394893 0.971215472
2008 Q1 0.723961071 0.982315144
2008 Q2 0.729950441 0.968811629
2008 Q3 0.737668886 0.972587689
2008 Q4 0.754372901 0.972099523
2009 Q1 0.758449957 0.979908186
2009 Q2 0.754662673 0.981845371
2009 Q3 0.74167856 0.973915352
2009 Q4 0.717290451 0.958097907
2010 Q1 0.709948045 0.947274462
2010 Q2 0.694980365 0.929450108
2010 Q3 0.690507553 0.913049982
2010 Q4 0.67787182 0.901721444
2011 Q1 0.676494817 0.90039109
2011 Q2 0.672887402 0.884984701
2011 Q3 0.673964 0.876464498
2011 Q4 0.672131923 0.864324021
2012 Q1 0.668044139 0.851832044
2012 Q2 0.669395694 0.842362259
2012 Q3 0.675769006 0.834590017
2012 Q4 0.683867628 0.827183521
2013 Q1 0.678850054 0.818064595
2013 Q2 0.685359586 0.814949195
2013 Q3 0.687926887 0.804826494
2013 Q4 0.686414551 0.803158082
2014 Q1 0.697461085 0.80648205
2014 Q2 0.695076145 0.794674352
2014 Q3 0.694801089 0.778448748
2014 Q4 0.704731539 0.776667298
2015 Q1 0.711336196 0.773100206
2015 Q2 0.718189777 0.76987064
2015 Q3 0.723536061 0.768512685
2015 Q4 0.731177099 0.766735772
2016 Q1 0.742996857 0.767868587
2016 Q2 0.743049029 0.766441877
2016 Q3 0.745828838 0.765898295
2016 Q4 0.741339726 0.762416315
2017 Q1 0.74846759 0.762138588
2017 Q2 0.754992517 0.7629601
2017 Q3 0.75560321 0.758400708
2017 Q4 0.75672458 0.754077089
2018 Q1 0.753971569 0.749780272
2018 Q2 0.766601937 0.74584858
2018 Q3 0.767819333 0.744185246
2018 Q4 0.772115245 0.744911898
2019 Q1 0.776824615 0.743321131
2019 Q2 0.773615855 0.741537192
2019 Q3 0.772844845 0.738024886
2019 Q4 0.769177884 0.738052331
2020 Q1 0.814389073 0.751235171
2020 Q2 0.921508272 0.817543469
2020 Q3 0.847954327 0.762190012
2020 Q4 0.835831339 0.75962898
2021 Q1 0.824443782 0.751437698
2021 Q2 0.813623839 0.758635556
2021 Q3 0.804471557 0.754972487
2021 Q4 0.79196404 0.744008654
2022 Q1 0.799000172 0.744151172
2022 Q2 0.797489011 0.741780829
2022 Q3 0.791764563 0.74055385
2022 Q4 0.786170691 0.735730802
2023 Q1 0.783206478 0.729003128
2023 Q2 0.779591569 0.727221124
2023 Q3 0.766799379 0.718392903
2023 Q4 0.755660711 0.713781608

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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Figure 2.3. Business debt adjusted for inflation continued to decline

Percent change, annual rate

Date Growth of agg debt
1997 Q1 5.524567795
1997 Q2 6.429721511
1997 Q3 10.09240756
1997 Q4 7.692802233
1998 Q1 11.49384245
1998 Q2 12.67026647
1998 Q3 9.716102163
1998 Q4 9.327835671
1999 Q1 10.90264563
1999 Q2 5.87363442
1999 Q3 10.32916379
1999 Q4 6.188077584
2000 Q1 8.731948097
2000 Q2 9.21094499
2000 Q3 4.067373079
2000 Q4 4.658991931
2001 Q1 1.096571513
2001 Q2 5.8943017
2001 Q3 3.061644464
2001 Q4 1.566425207
2002 Q1 1.886750121
2002 Q2 -0.118575601
2002 Q3 -0.234263842
2002 Q4 1.199229492
2003 Q1 -0.137171888
2003 Q2 -0.589876788
2003 Q3 1.266406396
2003 Q4 -1.655629064
2004 Q1 4.417830556
2004 Q2 1.43947391
2004 Q3 5.511730167
2004 Q4 4.786114043
2005 Q1 4.722852495
2005 Q2 6.112791561
2005 Q3 4.972027054
2005 Q4 6.589213911
2006 Q1 7.727122668
2006 Q2 6.715396535
2006 Q3 4.567087595
2006 Q4 9.236053721
2007 Q1 7.904476677
2007 Q2 11.24771652
2007 Q3 11.28163786
2007 Q4 7.959050489
2008 Q1 5.894467991
2008 Q2 6.054877606
2008 Q3 3.34664353
2008 Q4 1.471802414
2009 Q1 -2.976054149
2009 Q2 -4.826099822
2009 Q3 -6.332817995
2009 Q4 -6.60966677
2010 Q1 -3.992235546
2010 Q2 -3.705632191
2010 Q3 1.185162267
2010 Q4 -0.574287767
2011 Q1 -1.401725269
2011 Q2 0.939748076
2011 Q3 1.204075001
2011 Q4 2.512417743
2012 Q1 1.011568111
2012 Q2 2.67154051
2012 Q3 5.522883607
2012 Q4 6.476061467
2013 Q1 1.065371828
2013 Q2 4.705632581
2013 Q3 5.369665388
2013 Q4 3.423054883
2014 Q1 5.341959547
2014 Q2 4.343196012
2014 Q3 4.871036442
2014 Q4 7.112292746
2015 Q1 6.952050791
2015 Q2 6.928767622
2015 Q3 4.391004538
2015 Q4 4.699629649
2016 Q1 6.811589034
2016 Q2 1.859275105
2016 Q3 3.653901625
2016 Q4 0.499189367
2017 Q1 4.202833671
2017 Q2 5.478860875
2017 Q3 4.354468201
2017 Q4 3.87087221
2018 Q1 1.802855937
2018 Q2 1.09109823
2018 Q3 3.606929777
2018 Q4 2.684314395
2019 Q1 4.787679067
2019 Q2 2.203925114
2019 Q3 4.187846927
2019 Q4 0.956816295
2020 Q1 18.02269377
2020 Q2 15.9829245
2020 Q3 -2.937658194
2020 Q4 -0.609393112
2021 Q1 1.343564699
2021 Q2 -3.266660483
2021 Q3 -0.012794562
2021 Q4 1.975571254
2022 Q1 2.085251681
2022 Q2 2.521485423
2022 Q3 -0.763322868
2022 Q4 -1.120731715
2023 Q1 -0.249669921
2023 Q2 -1.742811094
2023 Q3 -0.632325223
2023 Q4 -1.233157066

Note: Nominal debt growth is seasonally adjusted and is translated into real terms after subtracting the growth rate of the price deflator for the core personal consumption expenditures price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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Figure 2.4. Net issuance of risky debt remained subdued

Billions of dollars

Date Institutional leveraged loans High-yield and unrated bonds
2004 Q2 15.56999207 -12.79978
2004 Q3 6.330001831 -4.74447
2004 Q4 20.88000488 -13.25172
2005 Q1 10.5 2.97369
2005 Q2 16.8999939 -6.4107
2005 Q3 7.279998779 -12.99104
2005 Q4 20.61000061 2.72849
2006 Q1 27.1599884 -13.66463
2006 Q2 40.14001465 12.56658
2006 Q3 17.85998535 -5.5888
2006 Q4 66.30001831 30.5088
2007 Q1 40.67999268 0.19438
2007 Q2 54.30999756 23.34618
2007 Q3 25.72000122 -7.043
2007 Q4 36.05999756 -10.42257
2008 Q1 2.210021973 -20.1379
2008 Q2 26.2199707 3.03224
2008 Q3 6.600036621 -0.41136
2008 Q4 4.799987793 -23.87502
2009 Q1 -11.82000732 -25.44025
2009 Q2 -15.5300293 2.31022
2009 Q3 -13.25994873 -9.19092
2009 Q4 -24.9800415 -9.41148
2010 Q1 -17.84997559 3.29614
2010 Q2 -9.710021973 13.21006
2010 Q3 11.76000977 14.20726
2010 Q4 -15.33999634 25.0072
2011 Q1 -4.489990234 0.52511
2011 Q2 25.48995972 16.39558
2011 Q3 -5.50994873 -7.89381
2011 Q4 3.909973145 3.67995
2012 Q1 -6.470001221 23.11511
2012 Q2 18.44998169 -13.41273
2012 Q3 -4.380004883 38.5513
2012 Q4 25.96002197 21.51444
2013 Q1 11.29998779 23.05389
2013 Q2 31.30999756 19.65314
2013 Q3 45.16003418 25.86382
2013 Q4 43.53997803 24.45472
2014 Q1 29.44000244 16.13023
2014 Q2 45.61999512 15.23673
2014 Q3 48.41998291 32.90895
2014 Q4 26.18005371 3.99923
2015 Q1 6.459960938 32.91826
2015 Q2 -3.109985352 4.34897
2015 Q3 8.58001709 -0.70019
2015 Q4 28.79998779 -13.22172
2016 Q1 9.08996582 -0.65118
2016 Q2 4.99005127 2.29577
2016 Q3 -12.88000488 -3.45296
2016 Q4 7.190002441 -44.46959
2017 Q1 -4.239990234 9.04802
2017 Q2 49.00994873 -10.65872
2017 Q3 13.0300293 -2.19108
2017 Q4 16.80999756 -4.0029
2018 Q1 24.22998047 16.27301
2018 Q2 62.20996094 -8.70022
2018 Q3 46.68005371 10.88415
2018 Q4 48.55004883 -20.50815
2019 Q1 45.52990723 13.27412
2019 Q2 9.200073242 19.04002
2019 Q3 -11.33007813 11.01589
2019 Q4 13.09008789 9.09712
2020 Q1 3.08996582 4.84
2020 Q2 -11.42004395 89.89667
2020 Q3 14.32006836 6.66938
2020 Q4 -6.170043945 -9.15942
2021 Q1 13.65002441 21.6375
2021 Q2 51.33996582 32.37538
2021 Q3 41.23999023 14.75297
2021 Q4 41.81005859 2.58813
2022 Q1 49.29992676 -11.67106
2022 Q2 24.01000977 -10.81049
2022 Q3 16.04003906 -20.36269
2022 Q4 -17.26000977 -18.05832
2023 Q1 -14.5300293 3.15098
2023 Q2 -4.770019531 -1.09656
2023 Q3 14.10009766 -0.69521
2023 Q4 -10.7800293 -4.12515
2024 Q1 1.050048828 2.86056

Note: The data begin in 2004:Q2. Institutional leveraged loans generally exclude loan commitments held by banks. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom (except for some bars with at least one negative value). For 2024:Q1, the value corresponds to preliminary data.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 2.5. Gross leverage of large businesses stayed at high levels by historical standards

Percent

Date 75th percentile All firms
2000 Q1 48.22518959 30.36066213
2000 Q2 47.85129103 29.61834315
2000 Q3 47.4916753 29.01812282
2000 Q4 46.98723313 29.1862484
2001 Q1 47.46972372 29.18847959
2001 Q2 47.45663579 29.3780128
2001 Q3 47.33279876 29.3672552
2001 Q4 47.114257 29.99413866
2002 Q1 46.03883344 30.62843183
2002 Q2 44.47899961 29.68146916
2002 Q3 44.10561576 29.45409195
2002 Q4 44.42719318 29.1829845
2003 Q1 42.83049826 28.96385294
2003 Q2 42.23323467 28.14317819
2003 Q3 41.81523398 27.78464941
2003 Q4 41.5829371 26.71295023
2004 Q1 39.47446543 26.30994862
2004 Q2 39.02658073 25.70035022
2004 Q3 38.73209833 25.38418344
2004 Q4 39.17628101 25.13582588
2005 Q1 37.83441632 24.93111088
2005 Q2 37.77656538 24.80433113
2005 Q3 37.49171291 24.12772474
2005 Q4 38.36185456 24.17281003
2006 Q1 37.41706054 24.45331893
2006 Q2 37.74943108 24.34322656
2006 Q3 37.69361474 24.36061456
2006 Q4 38.57435319 24.68816018
2007 Q1 37.98484552 24.92378441
2007 Q2 38.68416088 25.15936756
2007 Q3 38.70551603 25.56110959
2007 Q4 39.00618888 25.83092547
2008 Q1 39.09109941 26.05283406
2008 Q2 39.01722293 26.17186604
2008 Q3 40.03015705 27.16203579
2008 Q4 42.68298453 28.75280943
2009 Q1 41.53609401 28.68569829
2009 Q2 39.94144825 27.93090197
2009 Q3 38.47628311 26.95544694
2009 Q4 38.74114533 26.74283967
2010 Q1 37.12920064 26.32497768
2010 Q2 36.74189215 26.20485765
2010 Q3 36.29314454 26.20494249
2010 Q4 36.97408555 25.98606953
2011 Q1 36.13785912 25.77651004
2011 Q2 35.6217811 25.83900299
2011 Q3 36.37818863 26.16629925
2011 Q4 37.81209717 26.09539502
2012 Q1 36.98532615 26.03436764
2012 Q2 37.40251807 26.59335309
2012 Q3 37.48794432 26.71167472
2012 Q4 38.87539411 27.09074157
2013 Q1 38.06344278 26.93256617
2013 Q2 38.25889993 27.36166699
2013 Q3 38.52848325 27.67393262
2013 Q4 40.12819788 27.90931014
2014 Q1 39.23531313 28.51130681
2014 Q2 40.27670938 28.44480452
2014 Q3 40.8563776 28.60824131
2014 Q4 42.14605379 29.18458831
2015 Q1 42.37653193 30.03572603
2015 Q2 42.08965859 30.56249138
2015 Q3 42.56209346 31.09943564
2015 Q4 43.85831048 32.03751657
2016 Q1 43.81904011 32.64905114
2016 Q2 43.69128876 32.88533639
2016 Q3 42.99261552 32.96539892
2016 Q4 43.20835102 32.83072553
2017 Q1 42.69999152 33.10365622
2017 Q2 42.19813175 33.47085216
2017 Q3 42.11563873 33.29300093
2017 Q4 41.94370416 32.93648501
2018 Q1 41.96083968 33.246877
2018 Q2 42.16942508 33.04128345
2018 Q3 41.66780488 32.76819893
2018 Q4 42.46719644 33.15509428
2019 Q1 46.27003315 35.23866323
2019 Q2 46.54976766 35.41600918
2019 Q3 47.38068075 35.48995904
2019 Q4 47.89091594 35.46096985
2020 Q1 49.87011217 37.47472614
2020 Q2 49.15808351 37.67416586
2020 Q3 47.38240586 36.80827156
2020 Q4 46.7428696 36.11153483
2021 Q1 45.95419927 35.69624116
2021 Q2 45.03069413 35.16016672
2021 Q3 44.3493714 34.61373805
2021 Q4 44.5938928 34.20924955
2022 Q1 44.85074297 34.10775222
2022 Q2 45.64604813 34.04572938
2022 Q3 45.42002844 34.11044189
2022 Q4 45.43752354 34.22139079
2023 Q1 45.85547534 34.29232784
2023 Q2 45.23358045 34.22653965
2023 Q3 45.46540095 34.00512136

Note: Gross leverage is an asset-weighted average of the ratio of firms' book value of total debt to book value of total assets. The 75th percentile is calculated from a sample of the 2,500 largest firms by assets. The dashed sections of the lines in 2019:Q1 reflect the structural break in the series due to the 2019 compliance deadline for Financial Accounting Standards Board rule Accounting Standards Update 2016-02. The accounting standard requires operating leases, previously considered off-balance-sheet activities, to be included in measures of debt and assets.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

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Figure 2.6. Firms' ability to service their debt, as measured by the interest coverage ratio, remained robust

Ratio

Date Median for all firms Median for all non-investment-grade firms
2000 Q1 2.360292563 1.586831964
2000 Q2 2.322737129 1.535478437
2000 Q3 2.265054655 1.513139092
2000 Q4 2.202857032 1.440115266
2001 Q1 2.126165515 1.374845615
2001 Q2 2.078394007 1.35093106
2001 Q3 1.893205111 1.247007292
2001 Q4 1.774992249 1.28086744
2002 Q1 1.777967049 1.267771374
2002 Q2 1.740397477 1.288533928
2002 Q3 1.841853035 1.403771253
2002 Q4 1.999724972 1.525256849
2003 Q1 2.101398159 1.599810651
2003 Q2 2.115168539 1.511046155
2003 Q3 2.173065283 1.669259396
2003 Q4 2.29206215 1.670344906
2004 Q1 2.544724771 1.915573278
2004 Q2 2.86702351 2.06335406
2004 Q3 3.020931839 2.240584847
2004 Q4 2.983762652 2.351190476
2005 Q1 3.012543229 2.279258235
2005 Q2 2.99807699 2.241625616
2005 Q3 3.056107432 2.232316678
2005 Q4 3.030435648 2.281152427
2006 Q1 3.066759634 2.322080804
2006 Q2 3.011325387 2.270520532
2006 Q3 2.973553736 2.294204407
2006 Q4 2.91758181 2.280753949
2007 Q1 2.917037637 2.230363059
2007 Q2 2.83771391 2.208405999
2007 Q3 2.697358952 2.109745313
2007 Q4 2.72808731 2.095252343
2008 Q1 2.791767664 2.165829276
2008 Q2 2.99897471 2.257105171
2008 Q3 2.98272101 2.255587674
2008 Q4 2.626292796 1.9375
2009 Q1 2.691996292 1.971870068
2009 Q2 2.465690108 1.743471954
2009 Q3 2.327915452 1.594690079
2009 Q4 2.281710914 1.677119496
2010 Q1 2.626213592 1.956251737
2010 Q2 2.753257277 2.107586596
2010 Q3 2.940682106 2.19412783
2010 Q4 3.042792793 2.295169347
2011 Q1 3.189139052 2.470581774
2011 Q2 3.37037037 2.563897585
2011 Q3 3.520922855 2.618111059
2011 Q4 3.460091578 2.582900354
2012 Q1 3.397396631 2.517071443
2012 Q2 3.430836115 2.58731721
2012 Q3 3.288819095 2.399715885
2012 Q4 3.094357977 2.377692676
2013 Q1 3.193665503 2.331953642
2013 Q2 3.256355932 2.283515346
2013 Q3 3.258583691 2.241230155
2013 Q4 3.161034017 2.2117195
2014 Q1 3.208108108 2.20770202
2014 Q2 3.427311999 2.391077773
2014 Q3 3.471111111 2.418127994
2014 Q4 3.36816176 2.310932687
2015 Q1 3.35 2.187229379
2015 Q2 3.302869288 2.19087561
2015 Q3 3.314109454 2.2049955
2015 Q4 3.123854957 2.12860618
2016 Q1 2.942279942 2.040986515
2016 Q2 2.925113293 1.994308549
2016 Q3 2.962765957 2.112754557
2016 Q4 2.984521576 2.018129771
2017 Q1 3.041636621 2.125273523
2017 Q2 3.108464709 2.229055515
2017 Q3 3.063028298 2.281995419
2017 Q4 3.082348852 2.289488157
2018 Q1 3.056629878 2.238972095
2018 Q2 3.086165702 2.344155844
2018 Q3 3.170138889 2.368234238
2018 Q4 3.069111263 2.327034884
2019 Q1 2.964207048 2.213307777
2019 Q2 2.895021195 2.043065756
2019 Q3 2.798534259 2.065400787
2019 Q4 2.657608696 2.013216402
2020 Q1 2.482370977 1.789978926
2020 Q2 2.125037116 1.331896552
2020 Q3 2.168613358 1.228216403
2020 Q4 2.061076946 1.238529072
2021 Q1 2.47443034 1.50469039
2021 Q2 2.997844828 1.895191538
2021 Q3 3.28492823 2.226959488
2021 Q4 3.199232586 2.186409847
2022 Q1 3.428070175 2.211100963
2022 Q2 3.400451703 2.04197546
2022 Q3 3.080863607 1.831810961
2022 Q4 2.60205619 1.658145412
2023 Q1 2.488460783 1.574048405
2023 Q2 2.403857661 1.515027269
2023 Q3 2.449599226 1.476692498

Note: The interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest and taxes divided by interest payments. Firms with leverage less than 5 percent and interest payments less than $500,000 are excluded.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

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Figure 2.7. The default rate on leveraged loans remained around its historical median

Percent

Date Default Rate of Leveraged Loans
1998-12-01 1.510000043
1999-01-01 1.400000043
1999-02-01 0.620000018
1999-03-01 0.960000046
1999-04-01 0.910000037
1999-05-01 1.080000028
1999-06-01 1.510000043
1999-07-01 1.470000017
1999-08-01 2.590000071
1999-09-01 2.840000018
1999-10-01 2.800000086
1999-11-01 4.230000079
1999-12-01 4.170000181
2000-01-01 5.319999903
2000-02-01 5.640000105
2000-03-01 5.790000036
2000-04-01 7.389999926
2000-05-01 7.129999995
2000-06-01 7.500000298
2000-07-01 7.389999926
2000-08-01 6.660000235
2000-09-01 6.599999964
2000-10-01 6.740000099
2000-11-01 5.799999833
2000-12-01 6.570000201
2001-01-01 5.889999866
2001-02-01 5.649999902
2001-03-01 5.480000004
2001-04-01 4.780000076
2001-05-01 6.419999897
2001-06-01 6.279999763
2001-07-01 6.819999963
2001-08-01 6.80000037
2001-09-01 6.499999762
2001-10-01 6.71999976
2001-11-01 6.499999762
2001-12-01 6.300000101
2002-01-01 7.249999791
2002-02-01 7.249999791
2002-03-01 6.849999726
2002-04-01 6.949999928
2002-05-01 5.689999834
2002-06-01 7.410000265
2002-07-01 6.840000302
2002-08-01 6.780000031
2002-09-01 6.409999728
2002-10-01 6.589999795
2002-11-01 6.530000269
2002-12-01 6.010000035
2003-01-01 5.13000004
2003-02-01 5.009999871
2003-03-01 5.469999835
2003-04-01 5.260000005
2003-05-01 5.350000039
2003-06-01 2.62000002
2003-07-01 2.639999986
2003-08-01 2.669999935
2003-09-01 2.910000086
2003-10-01 2.300000004
2003-11-01 2.280000038
2003-12-01 2.250000089
2004-01-01 1.889999956
2004-02-01 1.610000059
2004-03-01 1.109999977
2004-04-01 0.939999986
2004-05-01 0.680000009
2004-06-01 0.939999986
2004-07-01 0.910000037
2004-08-01 0.879999995
2004-09-01 1.009999961
2004-10-01 1.020000037
2004-11-01 1.020000037
2004-12-01 1.009999961
2005-01-01 1.03000002
2005-02-01 1.370000001
2005-03-01 1.260000002
2005-04-01 1.48
2005-05-01 1.539999992
2005-06-01 1.290000044
2005-07-01 1.460000034
2005-08-01 1.429999992
2005-09-01 1.649999991
2005-10-01 2.559999935
2005-11-01 2.290000021
2005-12-01 3.020000085
2006-01-01 2.960000001
2006-02-01 2.889999934
2006-03-01 2.789999917
2006-04-01 2.470000088
2006-05-01 2.300000004
2006-06-01 2.280000038
2006-07-01 2.080000006
2006-08-01 2.080000006
2006-09-01 1.559999958
2006-10-01 0.989999995
2006-11-01 1.070000045
2006-12-01 0.480000023
2007-01-01 0.449999981
2007-02-01 0.240000011
2007-03-01 0.230000005
2007-04-01 0.219999999
2007-05-01 0.159999996
2007-06-01 0.150000001
2007-07-01 0.209999993
2007-08-01 0.209999993
2007-09-01 0.419999985
2007-10-01 0.329999998
2007-11-01 0.249999994
2007-12-01 0.240000011
2008-01-01 0.719999988
2008-02-01 0.939999986
2008-03-01 1.070000045
2008-04-01 1.300000027
2008-05-01 1.730000041
2008-06-01 1.700000092
2008-07-01 1.899999939
2008-08-01 2.030000091
2008-09-01 1.909999922
2008-10-01 1.970000006
2008-11-01 1.940000057
2008-12-01 3.750000149
2009-01-01 4.949999973
2009-02-01 5.249999836
2009-03-01 8.02000016
2009-04-01 8.030000329
2009-05-01 8.659999818
2009-06-01 9.149999917
2009-07-01 9.570000321
2009-08-01 9.679999948
2009-09-01 9.749999642
2009-10-01 10.71429029
2009-11-01 10.8148016
2009-12-01 9.610000253
2010-01-01 8.820000291
2010-02-01 8.590000123
2010-03-01 5.820000172
2010-04-01 5.649999902
2010-05-01 4.639999941
2010-06-01 4.019999877
2010-07-01 3.46999988
2010-08-01 3.570000082
2010-09-01 3.550000116
2010-10-01 2.280000038
2010-11-01 2.250000089
2010-12-01 1.86999999
2011-01-01 1.460000034
2011-02-01 1.269999985
2011-03-01 1.109999977
2011-04-01 0.949999969
2011-05-01 0.910000037
2011-06-01 0.910000037
2011-07-01 0.769999996
2011-08-01 0.329999998
2011-09-01 0.319999992
2011-10-01 0.319999992
2011-11-01 0.170000002
2011-12-01 0.170000002
2012-01-01 0.209999993
2012-02-01 0.209999993
2012-03-01 0.209999993
2012-04-01 0.55999998
2012-05-01 1.049999986
2012-06-01 1.040000003
2012-07-01 1.040000003
2012-08-01 1.070000045
2012-09-01 0.999999978
2012-10-01 1.059999969
2012-11-01 1.279999968
2012-12-01 1.269999985
2013-01-01 1.420000009
2013-02-01 1.400000043
2013-03-01 2.209999971
2013-04-01 1.909999922
2013-05-01 1.400000043
2013-06-01 1.370000001
2013-07-01 2.019999921
2013-08-01 2.160000056
2013-09-01 2.410000004
2013-10-01 2.309999987
2013-11-01 2.080000006
2013-12-01 2.109999955
2014-01-01 1.879999973
2014-02-01 1.860000007
2014-03-01 1.209999993
2014-04-01 4.639999941
2014-05-01 4.600000009
2014-06-01 4.410000145
2014-07-01 3.889999911
2014-08-01 3.610000014
2014-09-01 3.339999914
2014-10-01 3.280000016
2014-11-01 3.330000117
2014-12-01 3.240000084
2015-01-01 3.990000114
2015-02-01 3.920000046
2015-03-01 3.790000081
2015-04-01 1.260000002
2015-05-01 1.260000002
2015-06-01 1.240000036
2015-07-01 1.099999994
2015-08-01 1.300000027
2015-09-01 1.269999985
2015-10-01 1.269999985
2015-11-01 1.420000009
2015-12-01 1.499999966
2016-01-01 1.290000044
2016-02-01 1.410000026
2016-03-01 1.750000007
2016-04-01 1.689999923
2016-05-01 1.960000023
2016-06-01 1.970000006
2016-07-01 2.170000039
2016-08-01 1.979999989
2016-09-01 1.95000004
2016-10-01 1.95000004
2016-11-01 1.659999974
2016-12-01 1.579999924
2017-01-01 1.559999958
2017-02-01 1.410000026
2017-03-01 1.489999983
2017-04-01 1.429999992
2017-05-01 1.420000009
2017-06-01 1.539999992
2017-07-01 1.360000018
2017-08-01 1.360000018
2017-09-01 1.530000009
2017-10-01 1.510000043
2017-11-01 1.95000004
2017-12-01 2.050000057
2018-01-01 1.95000004
2018-02-01 1.999999955
2018-03-01 2.419999987
2018-04-01 2.370000072
2018-05-01 2.119999938
2018-06-01 1.979999989
2018-07-01 1.989999972
2018-08-01 1.989999972
2018-09-01 1.810000092
2018-10-01 1.920000091
2018-11-01 1.610000059
2018-12-01 1.630000025
2019-01-01 1.420000009
2019-02-01 1.620000042
2019-03-01 0.930000003
2019-04-01 1.009999961
2019-05-01 0.999999978
2019-06-01 1.339999959
2019-07-01 1.319999993
2019-08-01 1.290000044
2019-09-01 1.290000044
2019-10-01 1.429999992
2019-11-01 1.48
2019-12-01 1.389999967
2020-01-01 1.830000058
2020-02-01 1.830000058
2020-03-01 1.840000041
2020-04-01 2.31999997
2020-05-01 3.139999881
2020-06-01 3.229999915
2020-07-01 3.90000008
2020-08-01 4.080000147
2020-09-01 4.170000181
2020-10-01 4.10999991
2020-11-01 3.889999911
2020-12-01 3.830000013
2021-01-01 3.379999846
2021-02-01 3.249999881
2021-03-01 3.150000051
2021-04-01 2.610000037
2021-05-01 1.730000041
2021-06-01 1.250000019
2021-07-01 0.579999993
2021-08-01 0.469999993
2021-09-01 0.350000011
2021-10-01 0.200000009
2021-11-01 0.289999996
2021-12-01 0.289999996
2022-01-01 0.289999996
2022-02-01 0.190000003
2022-03-01 0.190000003
2022-04-01 0.179999997
2022-05-01 0.209999993
2022-06-01 0.27999999
2022-07-01 0.27999999
2022-08-01 0.600000005
2022-09-01 0.899999961
2022-10-01 0.829999987
2022-11-01 0.730000017
2022-12-01 0.719999988
2023-01-01 0.829999987
2023-02-01 1.020000037
2023-03-01 1.319999993
2023-04-01 1.31000001
2023-05-01 1.579999924
2023-06-01 1.710000075
2023-07-01 1.750000007
2023-08-01 1.549999975
2023-09-01 1.339999959
2023-10-01 1.429999992
2023-11-01 1.48
2023-12-01 1.530000009
2024-01-01 1.470000017
2024-02-01 1.410000026

Note: The data begin in December 1998. The default rate is calculated as the amount in default over the past 12 months divided by the total outstanding volume at the beginning of the 12-month period. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 2.8. New leveraged loans with debt multiples greater than 4 rebounded modestly in early 2024

Percent

Year Debt multiples ≥ 6x Debt multiples 5x-5.99x Debt multiples 4x­4.99x Debt multiples < 4x
2001 2.70000007 10.10000035 26.19999945 61.10000014
2002 5.900000036 12.20000014 27.30000019 54.60000038
2003 6.699999981 11.50000021 29.30000126 52.60000229
2004 8.799999766 17.5999999 28.60000134 44.99999881
2005 8.00000038 25.09999871 25.09999871 41.80000126
2006 16.29999951 21.09999955 26.30000114 36.39999926
2007 27.69999951 17.4999997 23.70000035 31.20000064
2008 10.70000008 12.09999993 14.20000046 63.09999824
2009 17.70000011 11.50000021 17.70000011 53.10000181
2010 5.800000159 17.90000051 22.59999961 53.70000005
2011 14.40000013 19.20000017 22.59999961 43.79999936
2012 15.80000035 21.79999948 26.60000026 35.89999974
2013 16.40000045 23.10000062 28.99999917 31.49999976
2014 27.19999999 21.50000036 22.59999961 28.70000005
2015 18.70000064 26.19999945 24.8999998 30.30000031
2016 21.00000009 24.40000027 32.6000005 21.89999968
2017 22.00000063 27.59999931 27.59999931 22.69999981
2018 29.60000038 26.89999938 24.19999987 19.30000037
2019 32.89999962 23.29999954 23.49999994 20.29999942
2020 28.10000032 23.89999926 25.69999993 22.30000049
2021 35.09999961 20.39999962 23.10000062 21.40000015
2022 36.50000095 20.80000043 19.30000037 23.39999974
2023 16.99999943 18.79999936 26.39999986 37.79999912
2024 Q1 22.99999967 23.00000042 21.99999988 31.99999928

Note: Volumes are for large corporations with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization greater than $50 million and exclude existing tranches of add-ons and amendments as well as restatements with no new money. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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Figure 2.9. Real household debt edged up

This is a line chart titled "Real household debt edged up." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2023. The y-axis measures trillions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 16. The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Prime,' is designated by a black line, and ranges from about 4 to 12 trillion dollars. This variable rises from around 4 to about 11 trillion dollars from 1999 to 2008 and then declines to 8.8 trillion dollars in 2013. After 2013, this variable rises slowly until it reaches 12.1 trillion dollars in 2021:Q3, falls slightly to 11.8 trillion dollars throughout 2022, then rises again to end at 12.3 trillion dollars in 2023:Q4. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime' and is designated by a blue line. It ranges from around 2.6 to around 4.5 trillion dollars. The variable has a slight increase from 3 to around 4.5 trillion dollars from 2002 to 2008 but is otherwise stable around 3 trillion dollars, declining slightly since 2020:Q4 to end at 2.9 trillion dollars in 2023:Q4. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime,' is designated by the red line, and ranges from 1.4 to around 3.5 trillion dollars. There is a slight increase from 1.4 trillion dollars in 1999 to around 3 trillion dollars in 2007, and there is a steeper increase to around 3.5 trillions of dollars between 2007 and 2010. Then, the variable decreases to around 2 trillion dollars from 2014 to 2020:Q2. It shows a slight drop to around 1.4 trillion dollars throughout 2021 and 2022 before a slight increase to around 1.8 trillion dollars in 2023:Q4.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. Student loan balances before 2004 are estimated using average growth from 2004 to 2007, by risk score. The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.10. A model-based estimate of housing leverage increased modestly

This is a line chart titled "A model-based estimate of housing leverage increased modestly." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 60 to 180 and measures indexed ratios of outstanding mortgage debt to home values (with 100 being the ratio in 1999:Q1). The data is quarterly, ending in the fourth quarter of 2023. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Relative to model-implied values' and is designated by the black line. It ranges from 100 to 135. The variable starts at 100 in 1999 and increases to around 135 in 2008 before decreasing to about 103 in 2021:Q2 and then rising to 113 in 2023:Q4. The second line is labeled 'Relative to market value' and is designated by the blue line. The variable also starts at 100 in 1999 and hovers between 93 and 100 until 2006. It then rises to around 136 in the years 2009-2012 before decreasing to around 78 in 2022:Q3 and finally rising again to over 80 at the end of the sample in 2023:Q4. There is also a horizontal dashed line marked at 100.

Note: Housing leverage is estimated as the ratio of the average outstanding mortgage loan balance for owner-occupied homes with a mortgage to (1) current home values using the Zillow national house price index and (2) model-implied house prices estimated by a staff model based on rents, interest rates, and a time trend.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.11. Mortgage delinquency rates ticked up from low levels

This is a line chart titled "Mortgage delinquency rates ticked up from low levels." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2023. The data is quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 10 percent of mortgages. There are two variables plotted. The first variable is "Delinquent", which is shown as a solid black line. It begins around 3.3 percent in 2001 and stays between 2.9 and 3.5 percent until 2007. It then begins to rise and peaks around 7.4 percent in 2010. It then steadily decreases to around 1.1 percent in 2021 before beginning to rise again to 1.9 percent in 2023:Q4. The second variable is "Delinquent/loss mitigation", which is shown as a solid blue line. It begins around 5.1 percent in 2001 and stays between 5 and 6 percent until rising in 2008 to about 9 percent. It then gradually fluctuates while decreasing until 2017 when the series spikes to 8 percent, then falls back to around 5 percent in 2018:Q1 where it stays until the series spikes again to 8 percent in 2020:Q2. The series then falls again to around 5 percent in 2021 and continues decreasing until 3.7 percent at the end of the series in 2023:Q4.

Note: Loss mitigation includes tradelines that have a narrative code of forbearance, natural disaster, payment deferral (including partial), loan modification (including federal government plans), or loans with no scheduled payment and a nonzero balance. Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 2.12. Very few homeowners had negative equity in their homes

Percent of mortgages

Date Negative equity
2011-01-01 25.2801477
2011-02-01 25.14403759
2011-03-01 24.99349439
2011-04-01 24.93152259
2011-05-01 24.86778766
2011-06-01 24.80639321
2011-07-01 24.65477237
2011-08-01 24.50348051
2011-09-01 24.35737809
2011-10-01 24.65101748
2011-11-01 24.93398222
2011-12-01 25.22515278
2012-01-01 24.69410388
2012-02-01 24.19767741
2012-03-01 23.66744432
2012-04-01 23.20889984
2012-05-01 22.73714373
2012-06-01 22.28260234
2012-07-01 22.1736435
2012-08-01 22.06436208
2012-09-01 21.95828597
2012-10-01 21.83856143
2012-11-01 21.72327356
2012-12-01 21.60469997
2013-01-01 21.11141237
2013-02-01 20.66698986
2013-03-01 20.17616238
2013-04-01 18.42961703
2013-05-01 16.62284533
2013-06-01 14.87236255
2013-07-01 14.35028271
2013-08-01 13.83093694
2013-09-01 13.33092231
2013-10-01 13.37002764
2013-11-01 13.40778486
2013-12-01 13.44668947
2014-01-01 13.24991987
2014-02-01 13.07252344
2014-03-01 12.87645744
2014-04-01 12.22984772
2014-05-01 11.56325433
2014-06-01 10.91967054
2014-07-01 10.73988151
2014-08-01 10.56068372
2014-09-01 10.3878061
2014-10-01 10.48872349
2014-11-01 10.58615501
2014-12-01 10.68659407
2015-01-01 10.5436008
2015-02-01 10.41465931
2015-03-01 10.27218916
2015-04-01 9.81089448
2015-05-01 9.33545318
2015-06-01 8.87653133
2015-07-01 8.70285064
2015-08-01 8.52963032
2015-09-01 8.36244321
2015-10-01 8.36120879
2015-11-01 8.36002953
2015-12-01 8.35879671
2016-01-01 8.27798383
2016-02-01 8.20246359
2016-03-01 8.12183901
2016-04-01 7.77224037
2016-05-01 7.41173511
2016-06-01 7.06350915
2016-07-01 6.82049908
2016-08-01 6.57826395
2016-09-01 6.34457424
2016-10-01 6.31636698
2016-11-01 6.2891235
2016-12-01 6.26101007
2017-01-01 6.18906946
2017-02-01 6.12413954
2017-03-01 6.05234088
2017-04-01 5.85246608
2017-05-01 5.64655486
2017-06-01 5.44790211
2017-07-01 5.28244106
2017-08-01 5.11751836
2017-09-01 4.9584182
2017-10-01 4.94112558
2017-11-01 4.92446662
2017-12-01 4.907297
2018-01-01 4.83929693
2018-02-01 4.77808298
2018-03-01 4.71050232
2018-04-01 4.57110609
2018-05-01 4.42716126
2018-06-01 4.28796195
2018-07-01 4.23688035
2018-08-01 4.18590957
2018-09-01 4.13664704
2018-10-01 4.14557884
2018-11-01 4.15418155
2018-12-01 4.16299557
2019-01-01 4.14798702
2019-02-01 4.13446997
2019-03-01 4.11951412
2019-04-01 4.02813579
2019-05-01 3.93386692
2019-06-01 3.84281944
2019-07-01 3.80144488
2019-08-01 3.76017961
2019-09-01 3.72032491
2019-10-01 3.66656557
2019-11-01 3.61460181
2019-12-01 3.56094814
2020-01-01 3.51876695
2020-02-01 3.47933706
2020-03-01 3.43725928
2020-04-01 3.3802395
2020-05-01 3.32143928
2020-06-01 3.26465063
2020-07-01 3.18478851
2020-08-01 3.10515953
2020-09-01 3.02830438
2020-10-01 2.95595441
2020-11-01 2.88609009
2020-12-01 2.81408016
2021-01-01 2.74729514
2021-02-01 2.68697497
2021-03-01 2.62021964
2021-04-01 2.5176659
2021-05-01 2.4120494
2021-06-01 2.3102107
2021-07-01 2.27230463
2021-08-01 2.23455257
2021-09-01 2.19814935
2021-10-01 2.18375723
2021-11-01 2.16986283
2021-12-01 2.15556587
2022-01-01 2.11821552
2022-02-01 2.08459919
2022-03-01 2.047522
2022-04-01 2.00213866
2022-05-01 1.95535125
2022-06-01 1.91017149
2022-07-01 1.94119825
2022-08-01 1.9721538
2022-09-01 2.00201522
2022-10-01 2.04337861
2022-11-01 2.0833178
2022-12-01 2.12448952
2023-01-01 2.12087055
2023-02-01 2.11760861
2023-03-01 2.11399769
2023-04-01 2.07316583
2023-05-01 2.0310291
2023-06-01 1.99027887
2023-07-01 1.9410439
2023-08-01 1.89148523
2023-09-01 1.84320094
2023-10-01 1.83391588
2023-11-01 1.82496395
2023-12-01 1.81571828

Note: NA

Source: CoreLogic, Inc., Real Estate Data.

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Figure 2.13. New mortgage extensions declined across all borrower categories

This is a bar graph titled "New mortgage extensions declined across all borrower categories." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2023. The data is annual. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1800, in billions of dollars (real). There are three variables plotted. The first variable is labeled 'Subprime' and is designated by the orange bar. It ranges from around 90 to around 440 billion dollars. It starts at 287 billion dollars in 2000 and increases to 477 billion dollars between 2001 and 2006. Then it decreases to around 136 billion dollars in 2009 and remains stable between about 100 billion dollars to 150 billion dollars, until falling to 85 billion dollars in 2023. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime' and is designated by the blue bars. It ranges from about 270 to 1100 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 600 billion dollars in 2000 and increases quickly, peaking at just over 1000 billion dollars in 2006 before falling from 2008 through 2012 to around 287 billion dollars. Since then, it increased and stabilized around 490 billion dollars from 2016 to 2022, before a decline and ending at 315 billion dollars in 2023. The third variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by the black bars. It ranges from around 700 to 1600 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 800 billion dollars in 2000 and steeply increases to a peak of around 1620 billions of dollars in 2003. The variable remains between 1200 and 1400 billion dollars from 2004 to 2007 before falling sharply from 2008 to 2012 around 800 billion. The variable then builds back up to 957 billion dollars in 2013. It then climbs to around 1050 billion dollars in 2019, jumping to 1580 billion dollars in 2021, and then declining in the final two observations and ending at 928 billion dollars in 2023.

Note: Year-over-year change in balances for the second quarter of each year among those households whose balance increased over this window. Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores were measured 1 year ago. The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.14. Real consumer credit edged down since late last year

This is a line chart titled "Real consumer credit edged down since late last year." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 200 to 2000 and the units are in billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Student loans' and is represented by a black line. The variable starts at around 550 billion dollars in 2005. There are two small, brief dips in 2008 and 2012 but otherwise balances steadily increase to about 1840 billion dollars by 2020:Q2. The variable falls slightly and ends at 1463 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The second line is labeled 'Auto loans'; is designated by a blue line; and ranges from around 600 to around 1550 billion dollars. It starts around at around 600 in 1999 and increases to around 1280 billion dollars in 2005. Auto loan balances fall slightly to around 980 in 2012 but began increasing again afterwards; the line ends at 1577 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The last variable is labeled 'Credit cards' and is represented by a red line. It ranges from around 800 to 1300 billion dollars. Starting at around 900 billion dollars in 1999, credit cards balances increase to a little under 1000 billion dollars and remain steady for several years with a peak at around 1300 billion in 2008. Balances began to decrease after 2009 to around 870 billion dollars in 2013 and steadily increased to around 1020 billion dollars by the end of 2019. The line then falls until it reaches 883 billion dollars in 2022:Q1, then rises until 2023:Q4 where the series ends at 1111 billion dollars.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index. Student loan data begin in 2005:Q1.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.15. Real auto loans outstanding ticked up for prime and subprime borrowers

This is a line chart labeled "Real auto loans outstanding ticked up for prime and subprime borrowers." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2023, and the y-axis ranges from 100 to 900, and the units are in billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly, ending in 2023:Q4. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 200 to 800 billion dollars. Auto loans to borrowers with prime credit scores started at around 200 billion dollars in 1999 and continued to increase to 530 billion dollars in the end of 2005. The series declines in 2006 until balances reached about 430 billion dollars in 2010. From 2011 onwards, the series increased, reaching 798 billion dollars by 2021:Q2, falling slightly to 763 billion dollars in 2022:Q3, then rising again until the series ends at 800 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The second variable labeled 'Near prime' is represented by a blue line and ranges from about 225 to 450 billion dollars. Starting around 225 billion dollars in 1999, the series increased to around 400 billion dollars in 2005 to 2006. The series decreased to around 270 billion dollars in 2010 before increasing again in 2011. The level was stable around 400 billion dollars since 2016, with a slight increase in 2021 to around 450 billion dollars, followed by a decline until to around 430 billion dollars where the series ends in 2023:Q4. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime,' is designated by a red line, and ranges from just under 200 to 360 billion dollars. It starts at just under 200 billion dollars in 1999 and increases to around 330 billion dollars in 2007. It decreases to around 230 billion of dollars in 2012 before beginning to increase to around 360 billion dollars in 2019. It decreases to around 300 billion dollars in 2022:Q1, then rises slightly to 348 billion dollars at the end of the series in 2023:Q4.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.16. Auto loan delinquencies remained at levels above their historical median

This is a line chart titled "Auto loan delinquencies remained at levels above their historical median." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2023. The data is quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 10 percent. There are two variables plotted. The first series is labeled "Delinquent" and represented by a black line. It begins around 3 percent and fluctuates within 2-4 percent for the next few years. It increases to around 5 percent in 2008:Q4, but then slowly decreases and hovers around 3 percent through 2019:Q1. The data decreases to around 2 percent in 2021:Q2 before rising to around 3.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2023. The second variable is "Delinquent/loss mitigation" shown by a solid blue line and ranges between 3 and 8 percent. It begins around 5 percent, then steadily fluctuates between 3 and 5 percent, until the series spikes to nearly 8 percent in early 2020, then decreases sharply to around 3.2 percent in early 2021, and increases to around 4.4 percent in 2023:Q4 where the data ends.

Note: Loss mitigation includes tradelines that have a narrative code of forbearance, natural disaster, payment deferral (including partial), loan modification (including federal government plans), or loans with no scheduled payment and a nonzero balance. Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due. The data for auto loans are reported semiannually by the Risk Assessment, Data Analysis, and Research Data Warehouse until 2017, after which they are reported quarterly. The data for delinquent/loss mitigation begin in 2001:Q1.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 2.17. Real credit card balances continued to rise in the second half of 2023

This is a line chart labeled "Real credit card balances continued to rise in the second half of 2023." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2023, and the y-axis ranges from 0 to 600 billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly, ending in 2023:Q4. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 250 to 550 billion dollars. The series started at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increased to nearly 550 billion dollars in 2009. There is a slight decline from 2009 until balances were close just under 450 billion in 2012. From 2012 onwards, the series increased with fluctuations, reaching nearly 550 billion dollars at the end of 2019. It dropped to 458 in 2021:Q1 before returning to 576 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime,' is represented by a blue line, and ranges from around 250 to 450 billion dollars. Starting around 400 billion dollars in 1999, the series increased to around 470 billion dollars in 2002 to 2003. Near prime balances decrease to around 410 billion dollars in 2005 and remains mostly flat until 2008 before decreasing to around 290 billion dollars in 2011. The level has risen slowly since then, reaching about 350 billion dollars in 2019. It decreased to around 270 billion dollars in 2021:Q1, then rose to 334 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime', is designated by a red line, and ranges from around 125 to 310 billion dollars. It starts at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increases until reaching a peak at around 310 billion dollars in 2002. It decreases to around 230 billion dollars in 2005 before beginning to increase with fluctuations to around 300 billion dollars in 2008. It decreases to around 140 billion dollars in 2013 before slowly climbing again, reaching around 185 billion dollars in 2019:Q4. It decreased through 2021 and then increases to end at 199 billion dollars in 2023:Q4.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2.18. Credit card delinquencies increased further in the second half of 2023

This is a line chart titled "Credit card delinquencies increased further in the second half of 2023." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 8 percent, measuring delinquency rates on credit cards. The data are quarterly, ending in 2023:Q4. There is one variable plotted, denoted by a black line. It ranges from just under 2 to about 7 percent. The series begins at 4 percent in 2000, rises to 6 percent through 2003, then falls just under 4 percent in 2005:Q4. The series then stays around 4 percent until 2008 when it slowly increases to 5 percent, then jumps to the series maximum of about 7 percent in 2009:Q1. The series then slowly falls to about 2 percent in 2015, then begins increasing in 2016:Q4 and reaches about 3 percent in 2020. Then, the series decreases to just under 2 percent in 2021 before it increases to about 3.9 percent when the series ends in 2023:Q4.

Note: Delinquency measures the fraction of balances that are at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans, which are delinquent and have either been charged off, foreclosed, or repossessed by the lender. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 3.1. Banks' average interest rate on interest-earning assets remained significantly above the average expense rate on liabilities

This is a line chart titled "Banks' average interest rate on interest-earning assets remained significantly above the average expense rate on liabilities." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2014 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from -.5 to 6 percent. The data are quarterly ending in 2023:Q4. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first series is labeled 'Average interest rate on interest-earning assets'. This series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 3 to 6 percent. The variable begins around 3.5 percent and has a gradual increase to about 4.5 percent in the middle of 2019. There is a decline in 2020 and the series falls below 3 percent in 2021 and early 2022 before a sharp increase back to nearly 6 percent in 2023:Q4. The second series, labeled 'Average interest expense rate on liabilities,' is designated by a blue line and ranges from just above 0 to 2.5 percent. This variable begins at about 0.5 and increases slowly to 1.3 percent, where it stays through 2019. Starting in 2020, it decreases to below 0.5 percent through 2021:Q4 before rising to its highest value of around 2.5 percent in 2023:Q4.

Note: Average interest rate on interest-earning assets is total interest income divided by total interest-earning assets. Average interest expense rate on liabilities is total interest expense divided by total liabilities. The shaded bar with a top cap indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.2. Banks' risk-based capital ratio increased to or beyond pre-pandemic levels

Percent of risk-weighted assets

Date G-SIBs Large non-G-SIBs Other BHCs
2001 Q1 7.139956782 7.537611947 9.311116004
2001 Q2 7.220629163 7.507062498 9.471195912
2001 Q3 6.96365322 7.265338587 9.607967567
2001 Q4 7.233203664 7.294288606 8.985693619
2002 Q1 7.288600658 7.497783615 8.994624275
2002 Q2 7.220877484 7.625077582 9.027355038
2002 Q3 7.452291906 7.717881599 8.97191475
2002 Q4 7.238979993 7.599274722 8.986911852
2003 Q1 7.091012115 7.665935368 9.140043367
2003 Q2 7.100394608 7.54636186 9.110395
2003 Q3 7.49834781 7.653162039 9.123476062
2003 Q4 7.398133424 7.888200306 9.126325247
2004 Q1 7.234306285 7.216799818 9.16935124
2004 Q2 6.891791513 7.063712606 9.013860239
2004 Q3 7.167375098 7.146667351 8.850683869
2004 Q4 7.401912641 7.595531924 8.733341205
2005 Q1 7.257996377 7.448331544 8.646862962
2005 Q2 7.076372679 7.467352658 8.600165701
2005 Q3 7.247751801 7.457539922 8.56819174
2005 Q4 7.329790993 7.474270107 8.380358887
2006 Q1 7.279889206 7.566618317 8.373873268
2006 Q2 7.135810429 7.596666066 8.371493138
2006 Q3 7.295633343 7.748200629 8.303544664
2006 Q4 7.394030313 7.454427209 8.463049429
2007 Q1 7.171591412 7.312532714 8.467279232
2007 Q2 6.827749233 7.082988656 8.349022019
2007 Q3 6.595116803 6.856713129 8.213112288
2007 Q4 5.833732654 6.51625678 8.003930529
2008 Q1 5.506544795 6.621301891 7.920018252
2008 Q2 5.45631705 6.504888767 8.02610411
2008 Q3 5.17952986 6.609660151 7.941150945
2008 Q4 4.681981888 6.255121407 7.916374327
2009 Q1 5.039969526 6.590014059 7.921542034
2009 Q2 6.324916954 7.399830978 8.066365458
2009 Q3 7.841966792 7.805477383 8.606650469
2009 Q4 8.325470968 7.914224427 8.856629965
2010 Q1 8.720474656 8.379758693 9.368410915
2010 Q2 9.093814743 8.650272203 9.970065919
2010 Q3 9.501334373 9.008804619 10.28542946
2010 Q4 9.858296896 9.656610294 10.64402904
2011 Q1 10.04402005 9.994476445 10.94589389
2011 Q2 10.13131885 10.21631313 11.18823252
2011 Q3 10.1865667 10.05379361 11.23753593
2011 Q4 10.61085037 10.27845914 11.45341281
2012 Q1 11.08898532 10.55709286 11.89626122
2012 Q2 11.14734076 10.40970767 12.2723623
2012 Q3 11.40972655 10.47821533 12.31611769
2012 Q4 11.67971702 10.60446977 12.15359454
2013 Q1 10.98263822 10.91291964 12.21478629
2013 Q2 11.1240404 11.0618973 12.15136173
2013 Q3 11.41311337 11.1775336 12.37021068
2013 Q4 11.60826488 11.31815627 12.37744774
2014 Q1 12.5344432 11.48349673 12.38458545
2014 Q2 11.51941404 11.42134218 12.26261462
2014 Q3 11.67349226 11.47747168 12.2404982
2014 Q4 11.71485903 11.57498425 12.20490123
2015 Q1 11.54195948 11.44992625 12.02060778
2015 Q2 11.76216021 11.26791248 12.02578733
2015 Q3 12.07827835 11.32791269 11.93405241
2015 Q4 12.01600533 11.31314343 11.88822257
2016 Q1 11.9701969 11.28045594 11.72236676
2016 Q2 12.00714107 11.34366022 11.69859854
2016 Q3 12.18752521 11.25968217 11.80506385
2016 Q4 12.40988799 11.33572069 11.98794899
2017 Q1 12.47443491 11.53200326 12.0555656
2017 Q2 12.54756214 11.42528938 12.09748487
2017 Q3 12.66755633 11.41135989 12.05368497
2017 Q4 12.3527707 11.29518605 12.04443645
2018 Q1 11.9500974 11.00313848 12.11366084
2018 Q2 11.95458845 11.19972354 12.19534242
2018 Q3 12.08694653 11.07003243 12.24488413
2018 Q4 12.17768299 11.16279311 12.20889195
2019 Q1 12.30712014 11.22643651 12.36250798
2019 Q2 12.23396858 11.26236262 12.28835788
2019 Q3 12.12225241 11.1802559 12.25488574
2019 Q4 12.07099926 11.023813 12.36338153
2020 Q1 11.46421553 10.74339956 11.90906608
2020 Q2 11.85429015 11.25404331 12.16716314
2020 Q3 12.47065918 11.63160968 12.24621505
2020 Q4 12.58202129 11.99927772 12.57441095
2021 Q1 12.56420062 12.30079656 12.86570237
2021 Q2 12.41964478 12.07846017 12.977743
2021 Q3 12.33014042 11.90776003 12.89116526
2021 Q4 12.32217733 11.60622111 12.7453039
2022 Q1 11.59660583 11.34402961 12.53193658
2022 Q2 11.62712423 10.99644666 12.23978774
2022 Q3 11.913489 10.8806144 12.11480857
2022 Q4 12.33006844 10.73891125 12.22016811
2023 Q1 12.53230386 10.65857284 12.12020736
2023 Q2 12.47962884 10.90871936 12.26545774
2023 Q3 12.92806298 11.13104882 12.42014294
2023 Q4 13.02823103 11.32402224 12.551466

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Before 2014:Q1 (advanced-approaches BHCs) or before 2015:Q1 (non-advanced-approaches BHCs), the numerator of the common equity Tier 1 ratio is Tier 1 common capital. Afterward, the numerator is common equity Tier 1 capital. The denominator is risk-weighted assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.3. The fair value losses of banks' securities portfolios declined through the end of 2023 but remained sizable

This is a stacked bar chart titled "The fair value losses of banks' securities portfolios declined through the end of 2023 but remained sizable." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2017 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from -800 to 400 billion dollars. The data are quarterly and conclude in 2023:Q4. Two variables are shown on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Available-for-sale securities' (hereafter AFS) and is represented by dark blue bars which range from about -$320 to just under $100 billion. The second variable is labeled 'Held-to-maturity securities' (hereafter HTM) and is represented by beige bars which range in magnitude from about -$390 to just over $40 billion in magnitude. The bars for each series are roughly the same size as the other in each period, with neither ever becoming more than about twice as big as the other. The two series collectively hover within a range of about -100 to 150 billion dollars until 2022:Q1, when both series see a pronounced drop to about a combined -300 billion dollars. They decline further to almost -700 billion in aggregate in 2022:Q3, then recover to about -500 billion in 2023:Q1. They decline again in 2023:Q3 to about -700 billion again and end the year in 2023:Q4 with an increase to about -475 billion, with AFS accounting for about -200 billion and HTM accounting for about -275 billion.

Note: The figure plots the difference between the fair and amortized cost values of the securities. Sample consists of all bank holding companies and commercial banks.

Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure 3.4. The ratio of tangible common equity to tangible assets increased for banks of all categories

Percent of tangible assets

Date G-SIBs Large non-G-SIBs Other BHCs
1985 Q1 4.723708871 4.86664552 6.359159293
1985 Q2 4.591253458 4.662415838 6.347591213
1985 Q3 4.795234516 4.567268942 6.360171645
1985 Q4 4.959676087 4.428526577 6.35798675
1986 Q1 4.931461882 4.536722128 6.426398055
1986 Q2 5.070040723 4.415069321 6.365368217
1986 Q3 5.279672834 4.584896562 6.381216413
1986 Q4 4.990291876 5.148162481 6.183803074
1987 Q1 5.054416022 6.104469784 6.295593891
1987 Q2 4.482015604 4.674775806 5.924820728
1987 Q3 4.305314505 4.87017224 6.013136713
1987 Q4 4.496993578 4.860912939 6.010849234
1988 Q1 4.54001116 5.143958481 5.96352929
1988 Q2 4.753405412 5.132688166 6.017762896
1988 Q3 4.482108955 5.125544798 6.123694067
1988 Q4 5.096562281 5.362511099 6.236009544
1989 Q1 5.086732206 5.341741912 6.299064528
1989 Q2 5.239452303 5.367794524 6.312842854
1989 Q3 4.959274419 5.191942854 6.20659731
1989 Q4 4.840103457 4.640221124 6.20744656
1990 Q1 4.93437274 4.669106858 6.275569364
1990 Q2 4.965348608 4.833683782 6.260115075
1990 Q3 4.825844337 4.893535831 6.252150015
1990 Q4 4.904285141 5.154267737 6.301941828
1991 Q1 5.066677651 5.286797712 6.416459012
1991 Q2 4.853249563 5.293638893 6.471419842
1991 Q3 4.811411782 4.837149838 6.512145026
1991 Q4 5.011369172 4.815914784 6.673899142
1992 Q1 5.47309079 4.787379375 6.783373014
1992 Q2 5.606345511 4.812863669 7.112861327
1992 Q3 5.688631652 5.057007441 7.235493063
1992 Q4 5.793703357 5.82608696 7.392099763
1993 Q1 6.000909306 6.154275501 7.569307115
1993 Q2 6.168939198 6.102716053 7.717836519
1993 Q3 6.333002058 6.229922033 7.738096605
1993 Q4 6.458768835 6.487935041 7.857536089
1994 Q1 5.957215742 5.757513375 7.788066259
1994 Q2 6.05870973 5.851278858 7.699194604
1994 Q3 5.854857011 6.124698621 7.728950831
1994 Q4 5.49608754 6.232098319 7.621878042
1995 Q1 5.307482119 5.892976273 7.741141026
1995 Q2 5.525387274 6.251580885 7.808300135
1995 Q3 5.574039518 6.274462371 7.86966858
1995 Q4 5.654076616 6.256798705 7.945288875
1996 Q1 5.924373564 6.326911535 7.950393556
1996 Q2 5.778755927 6.292611527 7.81561716
1996 Q3 5.97686384 6.199418485 7.759885304
1996 Q4 5.775515403 6.064333788 7.778970871
1997 Q1 5.408075907 6.055971375 7.81649307
1997 Q2 5.320941083 5.914914567 7.726044214
1997 Q3 5.40306157 5.832752125 7.763557522
1997 Q4 5.327831998 5.744818325 7.828162442
1998 Q1 5.414585831 5.640699796 7.834487099
1998 Q2 5.772072434 5.651936472 7.864889235
1998 Q3 5.939293267 5.51852844 7.823070386
1998 Q4 5.685646451 5.457024566 7.781451522
1999 Q1 5.770528127 5.691680105 7.715853699
1999 Q2 5.707909291 5.606600577 7.614531711
1999 Q3 5.770676814 5.558024193 7.519977556
1999 Q4 5.623908414 5.278880484 7.380905987
2000 Q1 5.679131017 5.257035453 7.311174501
2000 Q2 5.427136654 5.129157112 7.372510777
2000 Q3 5.523255371 5.420401959 7.48743695
2000 Q4 5.538873016 5.825614044 7.728270835
2001 Q1 4.886065021 5.721525334 7.56229523
2001 Q2 4.823214924 5.119304546 7.715525029
2001 Q3 4.463183492 5.038292903 7.901570007
2001 Q4 4.625132448 4.729584122 7.776162138
2002 Q1 4.558247545 4.923896197 7.805966776
2002 Q2 4.678258472 5.109039911 7.940272923
2002 Q3 4.843664765 5.349770161 7.956568963
2002 Q4 4.798037142 5.363953063 7.983116514
2003 Q1 4.723983226 5.427035588 7.933653286
2003 Q2 4.772703745 5.344575108 7.761928693
2003 Q3 4.715013032 5.269390104 7.717694501
2003 Q4 4.538257174 5.2254889 7.762206214
2004 Q1 4.505290413 5.377917038 7.97141893
2004 Q2 4.03764036 4.768137964 7.580925807
2004 Q3 4.30482244 4.441457768 7.970976857
2004 Q4 4.415323202 4.18504995 8.168933674
2005 Q1 4.218170292 3.887338992 7.96949349
2005 Q2 4.331699027 4.368945727 8.133171726
2005 Q3 4.295522388 4.009183232 8.06628818
2005 Q4 4.229191324 4.082765115 7.959054113
2006 Q1 4.036554384 3.768275429 7.848497868
2006 Q2 3.880600249 3.698818529 7.812490012
2006 Q3 4.068974027 3.907909154 8.041893915
2006 Q4 4.011696208 4.244282711 8.032413877
2007 Q1 3.804553767 4.228133741 7.978883725
2007 Q2 3.511443485 4.150651819 7.903526116
2007 Q3 3.388240276 4.238627613 7.915018708
2007 Q4 3.135497093 3.914437781 7.933672039
2008 Q1 2.91411269 3.696780923 7.931557613
2008 Q2 2.859278768 3.71935626 7.782938055
2008 Q3 2.243326028 3.506288574 7.603167442
2008 Q4 2.273103159 3.59549942 7.5207921
2009 Q1 2.67933521 4.036259626 7.53036052
2009 Q2 3.361885394 4.642708557 7.590317804
2009 Q3 4.3084317 4.815966145 7.893879978
2009 Q4 4.693365937 4.735868013 8.055344185
2010 Q1 4.763910344 4.821537151 8.309877913
2010 Q2 5.210454901 5.410922576 8.621863867
2010 Q3 5.46843084 5.641808627 8.810196025
2010 Q4 5.596848259 6.363282382 8.76359941
2011 Q1 5.695973386 6.678408691 8.928986538
2011 Q2 5.848113981 6.945861885 9.15900819
2011 Q3 6.053885039 7.23959308 9.288229803
2011 Q4 6.289225452 7.148599038 9.436515481
2012 Q1 6.352083071 7.321265293 9.478576908
2012 Q2 6.571008761 7.429093328 9.644670147
2012 Q3 6.714592399 7.579465446 9.69820452
2012 Q4 6.708523743 7.517298212 9.57070561
2013 Q1 6.78531699 7.848895968 9.709156541
2013 Q2 6.773241437 7.797981659 9.569635287
2013 Q3 6.801796823 7.91966692 9.595562062
2013 Q4 6.92711934 7.978015012 9.699922683
2014 Q1 6.988709747 8.172776904 9.725992266
2014 Q2 7.085307499 8.322943574 9.877155092
2014 Q3 7.184197004 8.340403796 9.69042024
2014 Q4 7.212054402 8.247241963 9.708037858
2015 Q1 7.295722495 8.446128135 9.718904941
2015 Q2 7.456086972 8.343722733 9.725020709
2015 Q3 7.639175749 8.560743565 9.740739121
2015 Q4 7.772781995 8.340958945 9.742256161
2016 Q1 7.743095807 8.511180594 9.78015827
2016 Q2 7.764894251 8.566459685 9.799967467
2016 Q3 7.772725539 8.352666966 9.77592052
2016 Q4 7.717807473 8.182518253 9.580009624
2017 Q1 7.644319624 8.303837317 9.699558748
2017 Q2 7.716920652 8.272623606 9.791540821
2017 Q3 7.686036563 8.396099072 9.784011015
2017 Q4 7.362722232 8.200962582 9.686527923
2018 Q1 7.174753478 8.21540944 9.595527711
2018 Q2 7.293771774 8.286261437 9.629635639
2018 Q3 7.199670629 8.262909112 9.663846545
2018 Q4 7.222332619 8.24279207 9.771254471
2019 Q1 7.208223271 8.461608953 9.99528169
2019 Q2 7.212891425 8.639027924 10.11849621
2019 Q3 7.041445743 8.639887513 10.08353991
2019 Q4 7.001961945 8.41853385 10.08937391
2020 Q1 6.311132178 7.894894611 9.711863015
2020 Q2 6.245893179 7.919667439 9.160595089
2020 Q3 6.431607248 8.12843812 9.233795349
2020 Q4 6.370966207 8.139787444 9.313332058
2021 Q1 6.075640663 7.972499846 8.998420613
2021 Q2 6.158046511 7.983568622 9.164368756
2021 Q3 6.020888446 7.848048269 9.204568429
2021 Q4 6.044080154 7.479268806 9.048489965
2022 Q1 5.621997165 6.886072053 8.329608592
2022 Q2 5.76385838 6.503005083 7.987173683
2022 Q3 5.830751571 6.001476797 7.624472208
2022 Q4 6.055083553 5.885128782 7.824159162
2023 Q1 6.062625934 6.088970074 7.99188089
2023 Q2 6.120059181 6.126431535 8.023618886
2023 Q3 6.191754918 6.107286745 7.951314065
2023 Q4 6.250543389 6.493089594 8.502234865

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs), intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Bank equity is total equity capital net of preferred equity and intangible assets. Bank assets are total assets net of intangible assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: For data through 1996, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report). For data from 1997 onward, Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies; and Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report).

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Figure 3.5. Borrower leverage for bank commercial and industrial loans inched down

This is a line chart titled "Borrower leverage for bank commercial and industrial loans inched down." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2013 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 24 to 36 percent and shows debt as percentage of assets. The data are quarterly and conclude in 2023:Q4. There are two variables plotted. The first line, labeled 'Non-publicly-traded firms,' is designated by a blue line, and ranges from about 30 to 34 percent. This variable begins near 32 percentage points, dips to about 30 percent towards the end of 2013, rises slowly to 34 percentage points through 2019 before decreasing back down to 33 percentage points where it hovered through 2020. It decreased throughout 2021 but leveled off in 2022 at around 31 percentage points. In 2023, it spiked up to 32 in the second quarter before dropping back down to end just above 31 percent. The second line, labeled 'Publicly traded firms,' is designated by a black line and ranges from about 24 to 31 percent. This variable begins at about 25 percentage points and increases steadily to 31 percentage points in 2020. Then, it steadily decreases to below 30 percent through 2023:Q4, ending at 29.3 percent.

Note: The figure shows the weighted median leverage of nonfinancial firms that borrow using commercial and industrial loans from the 24 banks that have filed in every quarter since 2013:Q1. Leverage is measured as the ratio of the book value of total debt to the book value of total assets of the borrower, as reported by the lender, and the median is weighted by committed amounts.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 3.6. The percentage of banks reporting tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans declined in the second half of 2023

This is a line chart titled “The percentage of banks reporting tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans declined in the second half of 2023." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1997 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from -100 to 100 and the units are net percentages of banks reporting tightening lending standards. The quarterly data begin in 1997:Q1 and end in 2023:Q4. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled 'Tightening' and data points below zero to -100 are labeled 'Easing.' There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line. The series begins around zero. In 2000:Q4, the series spikes to almost 80%, and remains elevated during the recession period in 2001. This falls to almost -60% in 2004 and then increases but remains negative until 2007. The series then spikes again during 2008, reaching a maximum of over 80%. The series then bounces between -20% and 20% between 2009 and 2019, before spiking again in early 2020 to roughly 70%. The series then falls to roughly -50% in 2021:Q2 before rising again to roughly 30% through 2023:Q2. The series sharply drops in the end of 2023, ending at about 4% in 2023:Q4. There is also a horizontal line marked at zero.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial and industrial loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. Results are shown for loans to large and medium-sized firms. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 3.7. Leverage at broker-dealers remained near historical lows

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Leverage
1995 Q1 30.59820699
1995 Q2 30.71505341
1995 Q3 31.30751875
1995 Q4 31.84378611
1996 Q1 33.11632997
1996 Q2 33.10133317
1996 Q3 33.34416934
1996 Q4 33.87996537
1997 Q1 35.28285074
1997 Q2 35.28693301
1997 Q3 35.49840821
1997 Q4 32.97368713
1998 Q1 35.5055262
1998 Q2 35.00708187
1998 Q3 35.06603418
1998 Q4 30.42957905
1999 Q1 30.91145678
1999 Q2 29.36615825
1999 Q3 28.4326363
1999 Q4 28.55799784
2000 Q1 29.85982147
2000 Q2 28.88942172
2000 Q3 28.51489968
2000 Q4 28.26480608
2001 Q1 28.56061993
2001 Q2 30.03204626
2001 Q3 31.46619458
2001 Q4 31.33896807
2002 Q1 31.65771014
2002 Q2 31.25994373
2002 Q3 31.788991
2002 Q4 30.62855923
2003 Q1 32.03024531
2003 Q2 34.78783652
2003 Q3 32.97349234
2003 Q4 33.66750977
2004 Q1 35.5833439
2004 Q2 37.77009672
2004 Q3 38.58874033
2004 Q4 39.27773969
2005 Q1 41.07381341
2005 Q2 41.43843926
2005 Q3 41.97496403
2005 Q4 39.88007287
2006 Q1 40.50349701
2006 Q2 40.6512138
2006 Q3 42.28737961
2006 Q4 43.01076291
2007 Q1 45.27781931
2007 Q2 46.89949596
2007 Q3 46.02041765
2007 Q4 46.29830345
2008 Q1 47.89183042
2008 Q2 41.86612486
2008 Q3 43.21227465
2008 Q4 30.70774416
2009 Q1 28.32159725
2009 Q2 24.89986223
2009 Q3 24.96183757
2009 Q4 23.50527227
2010 Q1 24.50696148
2010 Q2 24.04336594
2010 Q3 24.31000665
2010 Q4 23.52474592
2011 Q1 24.29464191
2011 Q2 24.44031307
2011 Q3 24.56571738
2011 Q4 24.63722702
2012 Q1 24.53187497
2012 Q2 24.43079148
2012 Q3 23.85253355
2012 Q4 23.45988554
2013 Q1 22.84284394
2013 Q2 22.14863289
2013 Q3 21.8371631
2013 Q4 21.09768162
2014 Q1 21.1277119
2014 Q2 21.34757371
2014 Q3 20.71800674
2014 Q4 19.81694995
2015 Q1 19.7323567
2015 Q2 19.33483813
2015 Q3 18.82854587
2015 Q4 18.14939259
2016 Q1 18.1237576
2016 Q2 18.30468708
2016 Q3 18.03585463
2016 Q4 17.61360822
2017 Q1 17.76957776
2017 Q2 18.30755415
2017 Q3 17.41003898
2017 Q4 17.15008992
2018 Q1 17.20557638
2018 Q2 18.06417424
2018 Q3 17.90348469
2018 Q4 18.1021874
2019 Q1 17.91414019
2019 Q2 17.81515456
2019 Q3 17.77992232
2019 Q4 16.86513915
2020 Q1 17.26456759
2020 Q2 16.25645237
2020 Q3 16.53850235
2020 Q4 16.61959579
2021 Q1 16.58288205
2021 Q2 16.22453771
2021 Q3 16.25455605
2021 Q4 15.78503157
2022 Q1 17.65597346
2022 Q2 17.21510097
2022 Q3 16.95523192
2022 Q4 15.95216126
2023 Q1 16.98870923
2023 Q2 16.94542599
2023 Q3 16.64310648
2023 Q4 17.0818075

Note: Leverage is calculated by dividing total assets by equity.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, “Financial Accounts of the United States.”

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Figure 3.8. Trading profits in December declined below their average

This is a line chart titled "Trading profits in December declined below their average." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1000, and the units are in millions of dollars. The data is a monthly average and ends in December 2023. There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 125 to nearly 900 million dollars. This variable begins just under 600 million dollars and drops to about 125 million towards the end of 2018. It rises sharply to nearly 900 million dollars in early 2020, then decreases back down to around 375 million at the end of 2020 before spiking back up near 900 million dollars in early 2021. It decreases throughout 2021 to 277 million in December 2021, then spiked to 700 million dollars in January 2022. It declined throughout 2022 to about 270 million in December but saw another beginning-of-year spike to 700 million in January 2023. The series declined throughout 2023, with a particularly sharp decline occurring from a value of about 400 million in November 2023 to a final value of about 200 million in December 2023.

Note: Sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

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Figure 3.9. Equities increased further as a share of trading profits in the most recent data

This is a stacked line chart titled "Equities increased further as a share of trading profits in the most recent data." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2023. The y-axis measures percent and ranges from 0 to 100. The data are a monthly average and end in December 2023. There are 3 variables charted on the plot, which represent the total share of trading profits by trading desks. The first variable, "Equity," is designated by red shading. This variable remains steady at around 35 percent except for a spike at the end of 2018 to about 50 percent and a dip in the beginning of 2020 to about 20 percent. Most recently, the series increases toward the end of 2023 to finish at about 40 percent in December. The second variable, "Fixed income, rates, and credit," is designated by blue shading. This variable remains steady around 40 percent except for decreases at the end of 2018 and in early- to mid-2022. The series drops to about 20 percent in December. The third variable, "Other," is designated by beige shading. This variable increases from about 25 percent in 2018 to its peak in mid-2022 at about 50 percent before declining through June 2023 and finally spiking back up to about 40 percent in December 2023.

Note: Sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement. The "other" category comprises desks trading in municipal securities, foreign exchange, and commodities, as well as any unclassified desks. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

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Figure 3.10. Leverage at life insurance companies rose and remained around its median

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Life Property and casualty
2001 Q1 8.360315929 5.403669991
2001 Q2 8.825850206 5.504125512
2001 Q3 9.446489745 6.221822248
2001 Q4 10.02576131 6.373944981
2002 Q1 9.632679759 6.240769413
2002 Q2 9.832560139 6.322692244
2002 Q3 10.14213546 6.41022916
2002 Q4 10.79484944 6.68349138
2003 Q1 11.04440361 6.783390209
2003 Q2 11.15630355 6.700379951
2003 Q3 11.00039848 6.717200484
2003 Q4 10.93049098 6.703703289
2004 Q1 11.28632142 7.061007766
2004 Q2 11.37445196 6.757486319
2004 Q3 11.47501192 6.816018286
2004 Q4 11.68091636 6.822148806
2005 Q1 11.30446287 6.807496064
2005 Q2 10.67035344 6.600465712
2005 Q3 10.78435755 6.658785004
2005 Q4 10.86652045 6.484946821
2006 Q1 10.19546025 6.497220748
2006 Q2 10.05285582 6.394967111
2006 Q3 9.990700936 6.370420878
2006 Q4 9.942870311 6.298563083
2007 Q1 10.03147799 6.336802042
2007 Q2 9.863830346 6.328847255
2007 Q3 9.956568986 6.329295342
2007 Q4 9.735306652 6.087904989
2008 Q1 10.85573631 6.513339782
2008 Q2 10.73182068 6.424232439
2008 Q3 10.68725491 6.445780501
2008 Q4 10.89029983 5.962321235
2009 Q1 10.90932682 5.939189565
2009 Q2 10.04657884 5.604261304
2009 Q3 10.00248807 5.574954212
2009 Q4 8.944481462 5.201320434
2010 Q1 9.244863211 5.169366996
2010 Q2 9.450056325 5.10355913
2010 Q3 9.733333631 5.181248479
2010 Q4 8.836558828 4.477889087
2011 Q1 9.736770121 4.623750035
2011 Q2 9.398895189 4.575627304
2011 Q3 9.479201809 4.413557952
2011 Q4 8.891800774 4.156316693
2012 Q1 8.854567244 4.146309553
2012 Q2 8.857692011 4.117559347
2012 Q3 9.199881714 4.165875528
2012 Q4 9.442618935 4.178579258
2013 Q1 9.274268451 4.100953384
2013 Q2 8.893093469 3.97245337
2013 Q3 8.670253358 3.923258204
2013 Q4 8.798132172 3.900565463
2014 Q1 8.547166563 3.87545479
2014 Q2 8.41872559 3.694263721
2014 Q3 8.363200493 3.647497267
2014 Q4 8.59546272 3.594395745
2015 Q1 8.428684782 3.551287551
2015 Q2 8.157295502 3.527149965
2015 Q3 8.374381367 3.473736099
2015 Q4 9.038878674 3.469640162
2016 Q1 9.522137033 3.564389235
2016 Q2 9.953703221 3.578756345
2016 Q3 10.07453984 3.563390508
2016 Q4 9.90261698 3.806888836
2017 Q1 10.22183128 3.596155467
2017 Q2 10.1183826 3.604357705
2017 Q3 9.838616996 3.653211818
2017 Q4 10.04515385 3.740926135
2018 Q1 9.970165092 3.302703286
2018 Q2 9.81671602 2.969346997
2018 Q3 9.846612352 2.934720943
2018 Q4 9.936873206 3.038347807
2019 Q1 10.20370771 3.020145479
2019 Q2 10.34069428 3.014511147
2019 Q3 10.54718356 2.986135067
2019 Q4 10.54096472 2.898598585
2020 Q1 10.34685813 3.042360791
2020 Q2 11.53667848 3.139493199
2020 Q3 11.69084219 3.118807437
2020 Q4 11.80069899 3.036641665
2021 Q1 11.12686467 3.012444066
2021 Q2 11.18981547 2.986456596
2021 Q3 11.55590725 3.001931086
2021 Q4 11.32713361 2.847918268
2022 Q1 10.82153347 2.817607057
2022 Q2 9.853146018 2.884219907
2022 Q3 9.906630233 2.886733385
2022 Q4 10.07603079 2.855469911
2023 Q1 10.50902812 2.843667603
2023 Q2 10.39107173 2.787514932
2023 Q3 9.91784836 2.79258154
2023 Q4 10.91318339 2.76413361

Note: Ratio is calculated as (total assets – separate account assets)/(total capital – accumulated other comprehensive income) using generally accepted accounting principles. The largest 10 publicly traded life and property and casualty insurers are represented.

Source: Generally accepted accounting principles data from 10-Q and 10-K filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro.

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Figure 3.11. Leverage at hedge funds reached its highest level since data became available

The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2023. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio and ranges from 0 to 10. Data are quarterly. The chart includes two variables. The first variable is titled 'Mean gross leverage' and is represented with a black line. This series starts around 6.5 and decreases to about 5.7 in 2015:Q4. The series then increases to a ratio of about 8 in 2020:Q1, before decreasing and the hovering between 7 and 8 through 2022. The series increased in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of about 8.5 in 2023:Q3, the last period for which data is available. The second variable is titled "Mean balance sheet leverage" and is represented with a blue line. The series starts slightly below 2 and remains relatively stable throughout the sample, reaching a local peak of about 2.1 in 2020:Q1. The series has increased slightly in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of around 2.2 in 2023:Q3, the last period for which data is available.

Note: Means are weighted by net asset value (NAV). On-balance-sheet leverage is the ratio of gross asset value to NAV. Gross leverage is the ratio of gross notional exposure to NAV. Gross notional exposure includes both on-balance-sheet exposures and off-balance-sheet derivative notional exposures. Options are delta adjusted, and interest rate derivatives are reported at 10-year bond equivalent values. The data are reported on a 2-quarter lag beginning in 2013:Q1.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

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Figure 3.12. Leverage at the largest hedge funds increased

This is a line chart titled "Leverage at the largest hedge funds increased." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2023. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio, measured as gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV), and ranges from 0 to 30. Data are quarterly. The chart includes three variables. The first variable is titled "Top 15, by GAV" and is represented by a black line. The series starts at a ratio of about 11 and fluctuations around this level, on average, through 2017. The series increases through 2018 to a peak ratio of about 23 in 2019:Q2. The series then steadily declines to a ratio of about 12 in 2021:Q1 before increasing sharply to a ratio of about 21 in 2021:Q4. The series then declines to about 14 in 2022:Q3. After this, the series increases steadily to a ratio of about 18 in 2023:Q3, the last period for which data is available. The second variable is titled "16-50, by GAV" and is represented by a blue line. The series begins at a ratio of about 5 and remains around this level, with mild fluctuations, until the end of 2016. The series then increases to a peak ratio of about 11 in 2019:Q2. The series then decreases to a ratio of about 8 near the end of 2019 and fluctuates between about 6 and 9 throughout the sample. The series slightly increases to slightly above 7 in 2023:Q3, the last period for which data is available. The third variable is titled "51+, by GAV" and is represented by a red line. This series begins near a ratio of about 1.5 and remains almost flat throughout the sample. The reading for 2023:Q3, the last period for which we have data, is about 1.5.

Note: Leverage is measured by gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV). Funds are sorted into cohorts based on GAV. Average leverage is computed as the NAV-weighted mean.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

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Figure 3.13. Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged

This is a line chart titled "Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2011 to 2024. The y-axis is net percentage and ranges from -80 to 40 percent. Data are quarterly. The first line, titled "Hedge funds", is designated by a solid black line. This series begins around -50 percent at the start of 2012 but rises to around 20 percent by 2013 and fluctuates between -20 and 20 percent between 2013 and 2022. In 2022, this series briefly dips below -20 percent before rising back to around 0 percent at the end of the year. The series drops to -14 percent in 2023:Q1 and recovers to about 0 percent through the end of 2023 and 2024:Q1. The second line, titled "Trading REITs", is designated by a solid blue line. This series begins around 0 percent at the start of 2012. It remains near this level until mid-2013, when it falls to around -35 percent for three quarters and then returns to roughly 0 percent. This series remains between about -5 and 5 percent until 2020, when it plummets to almost -80 percent. It then returns to around 0 percent by early 2021, where it remains through 2023. The series increases in 2024:Q1 at about 11 percent. The third line, titled "Insurance companies", is designated by a solid red line. This series begins at 0 percent in 2012 and remains between -5 and 5 percent through 2021:Q3 where it increases 10 percent. The series returns to hovering between -5 and 5 percent through the end of 2023, and then jumps back to 10 percent in 2024:Q1. The fourth line, titled "Mutual funds", is designated by a dashed black line. This series begins around 0 percent and remains between 0 and 5 percent until 2020, when it briefly falls to about -20 percent. This series then recovers to around 0 percent by 2021 through 2022:Q2. In 2022:Q3, the series drops to below -10 percent and then bounces between -5 and 0 percent, about where it stands in 2024:Q1.

Note: Net percentage equals the percentage of institutions that reported increased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months minus the percentage of institutions that reported decreased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months. REIT is real estate investment trust.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms.

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Figure 3.14. Issuance of non-agency securitized products increased in early 2024 from the subdued levels of 2023

This is a stacked bar chart with five categories titled, "Issuance of non-agency securitized products increased in early 2024 from the subdued levels of 2023." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2024. The data is annual and bar for 2024 is annualized. The y-axis is in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 3200. The sum of the five categories begins at about 1000 billion in 2001 and peak around 3000 billion in 2006. The total then drops to about 350 billion in 2008 and steadily increases to about 700 billion in 2019 before dropping slightly to about 550 billion in 2020. Then, the sum increases to 930 billion in 2021 before declining to around 500 billion in 2023. The series finishes in 2024 with a jump to about 700 billion. 'Other', represented in light gray, begins at about 260 billion in 2001, peaks at about 330 billion in 2006-2007, then drops to about 165 billion in 2008. The series rises to about 200 billion in 2009 before dipping back to around 115 billion in 2011. It generally rises through 2018, where it hits about 160 billion. The variable decreases to about 125 billion in 2020 before rising to around 160 billion in 2022. The series declines in 2023 to about 117 billion, then rises again in the final value to about 160 billion in 2024. 'Private-label RMBS', represented in black, begins at around 420 billion in 2001, peaks at about 1700 billion in 2005-2006, then drops sharply to 42 billion in 2008 and stays in decline through 2012 to a low of 21 billion. It then increases steadily to just over 125 billion in 2019 before dipping slightly in 2020 and spiking up to around 190 billion in 2021. The variable declines to 70 billion in 2023 and ticks up to 105 billion in 2024. 'Non-agency CMBS', represented in red shading, begins at about 115 billion dollars in 2001, peaks at about 350 billion dollars in 2007, rapidly decreases to about 15 billion dollars in 2008, and reaches a low of about 3 billion dollars in 2009. It then slowly increases to just over 120 billion dollars in 2015. From this point, it alternates back and forth from about 115 billion dollars to around 80 billion, reaching just over 130 billion dollars in 2021 before declining to about 75 billion dollars in 2022 and 40 billion in 2023. For the annualized 2024 data, the series recovers to about 71 billion dollars. 'Auto loan/lease ABS', represented in dark blue, begins at about 140 billion dollars in 2001 and remains around that level until 2008 where it decreases to 50 billion dollars. The bar increases to about 110 billion dollars by 2012 and gradually increases to around 150 billion dollars by 2021. It declines to around 120 billion dollars in 2022 and rises to around 150 billion in 2023 and then 200 billion in 2024. The bar representing 'CDOs (including CLOs and ABS CDOs)', represented in beige, begins at about 95 billion dollars in 2001, increases rapidly and peaks at about 575 billion dollars in 2006. It then drops to about 75 billion dollars by 2008 and then 6 billion dollars in 2010. It increases to about 260 billion dollars in 2021, then decreases to 118 billion dollars in 2023. The series is at about 180 billion for the final bar in 2024.

Note: The data from the first quarter of 2024 are annualized to create the 2024 bar. RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities; CMBS is commercial mortgage-backed securities; CDO is collateralized debt obligation; CLO is collateralized loan obligation. The "other" category consists of other asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by credit card debt, student loans, equipment, floor plans, and miscellaneous receivables; resecuritized real estate mortgage investment conduit (Re-REMIC) RMBS; and Re-REMIC CMBS. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Green Street, Commercial Mortgage Alert's CMBS Database and Asset-Backed Alert's ABS Database; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3.15. Bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions grew

This is a stacked line chart titled "Bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions grew." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2023. The y-axis measures billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 2250. The data are quarterly and end in 2023:Q4. There are 10 variables charted on the plot, which sum up to represent total committed amounts extended to nonbank financials by large banks. The overall trend has been steadily increasing from about 1300 billion in 2018 to just over 2000 billion dollars in 2023:Q4. The first variable, 'Financial transactions processing', is designated by orange shading. This variable increases steadily from about 21 billion in 2018 to about 30 billion in 2023:Q4. The second variable, 'Private equity, BDCs, and credit funds', is designated by turquoise shading. This variable steadily increases from 48 billion in 2018 to 80 billion in 2023:Q4. The third variable, 'Broker-dealers', is designated by light blue shading. This variable steadily increases from 106 billion in 2018 to 195 billion in 2023:Q4. The fourth variable, 'Insurance companies', is designated by medium blue shading. This variable decreases from 139 billion in 2018 to 107 billion in 2019:Q1 before increasing modestly to 115 billion in 2019:Q2 where it hovers between 112 billion and 120 billion through 2021:Q4, then rises to 139 billion by 2023:Q4. The fifth variable, 'REITs', is designated by red shading. It begins around 118 billion in 2018:Q1 and increases to 122 billion in 2018:Q3. It then falls steadily through 2023:Q4 where it ends at 36 billion. The sixth variable, 'Open-end investment funds', is designated by green shading. This variable begins at 103 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to around 205 billion in 2023:Q4. The seventh variable, 'Special purpose entities, CLOs, and ABS', is designated by light gray shading. This variable starts at 124 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to end at 366 billion in 2023:Q4. The eighth variable, 'Other financial vehicles', is designated by black shading. This variable increases steadily from 198 billion in 2018 to end around 427 billion in 2023:Q4. The ninth variable, 'Real estate lenders and lessors', is designated by beige shading. This variable increases steadily from 160 billion in 2018:Q1 to about 360 billion in 2023:Q4. The tenth variable, 'Consumer lenders, other lenders, and lessors', is designated by dark blue shading. This variable starts at 180 billion in 2018 and remains at about that level until 2019:Q2, where it decreases to 163 billion. It then increases steadily throughout the rest of the plotted period, rising to 228 billion in 2023:Q4.

Note: Committed amounts on credit lines and term loans extended to nonbank financial institutions by a balanced panel of 24 bank holding companies that have filed Form FR Y-14Q in every quarter since 2018:Q1. Nonbank financial institutions are identified based on reported North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. In addition to NAICS codes, a name-matching algorithm is applied to identify specific entities such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and asset-backed securities (ABS). BDC is business development company. REITs incorporate both mortgage (trading) REITs and equity REITs. Broker-dealers also include commodity contracts dealers and brokerages and other securities and commodity exchanges. Other financial vehicles include closed-end investment and mutual funds.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 3.16. Aggregate credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions increased in 2023 for most sectors except real estate investment trusts, broker-dealers, and real estate lenders and lessors

This is a bar chart titled "Aggregate credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions increased in 2023 for most sectors except real estate investment trusts, broker-dealers, and real estate lenders and lessors." The x-axis shows the ten different sectors of NBFIs and a total column. The y-axis represents percent growth of loan commitments and utilization rates to NBFIs and ranges from -50 to 80 percent. The data are quarterly. The chart shows the 2023:Q4-over-2022:Q4 growth rate. There are two variables plotted on the chart for each sector. 'Committed amounts' is represented as a red bar and 'utilized amounts' is represented as a light gray bar. From left to right, the first sector is 'REITs'. This sector saw its committed amount shrink by about 16 percent and its utilized amount shrink by about 35 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The second sector is 'Financial transactions processing' which saw its committed amount grow by about 10 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 22 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The third sector is 'Consumer, leasing, & other lenders.' This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 8 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 10 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The fourth sector is 'Insurance companies' which saw their committed amount grow by about 4 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 10 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The fifth sector is 'PE, BDCs & credit funds.' This sector saw both its committed and utilized amounts grow by about 4 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The sixth sector is ‘Broker-dealers’ which saw their committed and utilized amounts decrease by about 1 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The seventh sector is 'Open-end investment funds' which have seen their committed amount grow by about 16 percent and their utilized amount grow by about 3 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The eighth sector is 'SPEs, CLOs, & ABS'. This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 12 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 6 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The ninth sector is 'Real estate lenders & lessors.' This sector saw its committed amount shrink by about 0.5 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 6 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. The tenth sector is 'Other financial vehicles' which saw their committed amount increase by about 4 percent and their utilized amount increases by about 3 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4. Lastly, there are two bars showing the total for all NBFIs, which show their committed amounts grew by about 5 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 4 percent as of 2023:Q4 vs 2022:Q4.

Note: The figure shows 2023:Q4-over-2022:Q4 growth rates as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. REIT is real estate investment trust; PE is private equity; BDC is business development company; SPE is special purpose entity; CLO is collateralized loan obligation; ABS is asset-backed securities. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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Figure 4.1. Ratios of runnable money-like liabilities to GDP remained above their historical medians

Percent of GDP

Date Other Securities lending Commercial paper Domestic money market funds Repurchase agreements Uninsured deposits
2002 Q1 75.3897839 68.15047946 64.47861046 51.43135262 30.2496834 11.2213538
2002 Q2 75.98029863 68.7218788 64.76078043 52.41974772 32.05163339 11.4801712
2002 Q3 75.79953068 68.33046079 65.57932364 53.41672276 33.33899908 12.38150759
2002 Q4 76.69417818 68.93501488 66.26992622 53.88190227 33.57719251 12.88164942
2003 Q1 77.56095922 69.5387552 66.29495872 54.17683327 34.20453804 13.19553592
2003 Q2 78.85848267 70.75554889 67.06147435 55.36076429 36.3793522 14.02211935
2003 Q3 77.01060818 69.17287956 64.65998129 53.4956178 35.14356906 13.50692573
2003 Q4 77.0586072 68.2674464 63.62807192 52.68222217 35.21661624 13.53385069
2004 Q1 78.67178292 69.67223742 65.16944556 54.05719746 37.24032423 14.03742657
2004 Q2 79.25068613 70.15184882 64.74713468 54.01478229 37.91102771 14.41923144
2004 Q3 80.42699676 71.0243647 66.23378942 55.62071859 40.00175489 14.66919895
2004 Q4 80.4201815 71.07004615 65.63857522 54.50254723 39.36484196 15.14410661
2005 Q1 81.62930599 72.3424772 66.32660986 55.08266952 40.43566206 15.04202804
2005 Q2 83.58329847 74.39119775 67.75064346 56.18285147 41.91708469 15.15643072
2005 Q3 84.40853399 75.33336395 69.21182474 57.36574433 42.94032667 15.2811488
2005 Q4 84.16237019 75.10330879 69.49790828 57.1887377 42.3595529 15.77717409
2006 Q1 85.83563838 76.7378648 71.12848172 58.64528434 43.71091584 15.49262021
2006 Q2 87.62634916 78.29535951 72.03850317 59.21095527 44.25177347 15.76425978
2006 Q3 92.16886459 82.2488448 75.21603465 61.77250422 46.15628234 15.46617993
2006 Q4 94.13467613 83.7778453 76.17901712 62.23616553 45.949549 16.26198807
2007 Q1 97.52987456 87.07271409 78.50909626 64.41638274 47.67952301 15.39487663
2007 Q2 98.64408524 88.16324802 79.4386692 64.79223065 47.67478494 15.24456781
2007 Q3 96.97329801 86.42158624 78.88829082 66.13577041 47.4172771 15.21393567
2007 Q4 97.80056156 86.9786552 79.23997043 67.08852637 46.5510162 16.05890309
2008 Q1 101.5154434 90.2292283 83.89399176 71.76204105 48.89666648 16.0681219
2008 Q2 103.7815411 92.1009533 80.05920066 68.30028634 45.3851277 15.50576409
2008 Q3 97.98813771 86.78698431 79.99147401 69.55567909 46.34192315 16.37606903
2008 Q4 87.96350456 76.85126981 70.32228323 59.37433643 33.95197197 12.19275204
2009 Q1 87.14897114 76.24928558 70.85289396 60.98575612 34.19305806 12.12707385
2009 Q2 85.81339709 75.0656653 68.93344567 60.04131046 34.05013789 12.12732653
2009 Q3 79.41225034 69.12741409 63.1409231 55.04833199 30.63200783 8.176508483
2009 Q4 74.5961588 65.27578522 59.47303062 51.71004725 28.98666237 8.666235841
2010 Q1 77.95240658 68.90482892 63.23683637 55.9154237 34.83332535 12.21509893
2010 Q2 75.05193938 66.46952743 60.86171601 53.9990139 35.07041087 12.2369495
2010 Q3 75.70951393 67.10240402 61.87905496 54.94074884 36.3796822 13.66544011
2010 Q4 70.53272252 62.16704306 57.0669464 50.15977227 31.86772536 9.532292697
2011 Q1 71.17191342 62.99112537 57.94135409 50.5725706 32.77808719 9.612796729
2011 Q2 70.70125401 62.96069222 57.76150878 50.8092651 33.3675489 10.09778002
2011 Q3 69.38410207 61.98449457 57.38709084 50.96801802 34.27375877 10.37504822
2011 Q4 68.0484027 61.0653652 56.90377449 50.78575815 34.05027659 10.46072154
2012 Q1 67.551076 60.80079619 56.63005029 50.53470608 34.16835546 10.53836931
2012 Q2 67.04883476 60.2786398 56.08766551 50.24610774 34.55223996 10.59933138
2012 Q3 66.64239631 59.88542531 55.84308113 50.08560904 34.45128902 10.47648555
2012 Q4 67.78293151 61.24277256 57.64247453 51.93046454 35.98030415 11.90148784
2013 Q1 75.07083463 68.46224349 64.75484931 58.80310302 42.92784336 20.06200904
2013 Q2 73.45079386 67.13893893 63.23590682 57.37630178 41.93025054 20.05432462
2013 Q3 73.251482 67.18532596 63.09931297 57.39807305 41.82824514 20.80509274
2013 Q4 72.68184764 65.28413632 61.48732209 56.01201416 40.38680749 21.39200764
2014 Q1 73.79607543 66.16640462 61.89442407 56.18509197 40.68059326 21.46042131
2014 Q2 72.56414605 64.9709653 60.72031778 55.03945714 40.36994704 21.89376062
2014 Q3 71.66837757 64.22581017 60.02326917 54.48646649 40.01752574 22.08448011
2014 Q4 71.03990676 63.96162625 60.02562295 54.88903324 40.01556099 22.62418513
2015 Q1 71.23706708 64.23629755 60.3061686 55.08914822 40.30023847 22.70171547
2015 Q2 69.30899076 62.59309895 58.85946622 53.56149896 39.37123683 22.49692158
2015 Q3 69.68770471 63.02199578 59.41753153 54.08677444 39.58596873 22.42652743
2015 Q4 69.03504458 62.32924447 58.80673198 53.75563837 38.94934302 22.83849643
2016 Q1 69.75760496 63.21667532 59.64314394 54.18690608 39.30916542 22.96580891
2016 Q2 70.16050408 63.52029132 60.02899999 54.65492971 40.1932025 23.13879362
2016 Q3 69.7160328 63.03651581 59.72543794 54.95637411 40.65963328 23.68933233
2016 Q4 68.46323353 61.71034301 58.66058433 54.07922535 39.90804391 23.88738582
2017 Q1 68.44442545 61.7285206 58.55151147 53.74428669 39.86512223 23.67068793
2017 Q2 68.52047383 61.8458383 58.46154864 53.75271179 40.15541353 23.51067034
2017 Q3 68.4873574 61.71008062 58.30951318 53.37342919 39.63974893 23.5406365
2017 Q4 68.43583317 61.7851767 58.51254552 53.74330945 39.79915299 23.66958612
2018 Q1 67.58887868 61.0936731 57.81468906 52.70778815 38.87553982 23.2270787
2018 Q2 66.99565488 60.45792993 57.13509372 52.07600764 38.36753528 22.68542655
2018 Q3 66.76363019 60.19238968 57.03628355 52.05889776 38.33064849 22.75686621
2018 Q4 68.77547856 62.28598409 59.41494568 54.70292608 40.54086947 23.19115156
2019 Q1 70.41002349 63.9713774 60.15184112 55.16649529 40.6110609 22.4966024
2019 Q2 70.23068824 63.7675714 60.73368408 55.72408723 41.02214842 22.57584863
2019 Q3 72.16383283 65.71423016 62.84365809 57.97698383 42.47798767 22.98644698
2019 Q4 72.13624055 65.70477296 63.06382833 58.32219509 42.01371323 23.51243474
2020 Q1 78.33092457 71.60195432 68.88719295 63.9013712 46.09087457 26.87873017
2020 Q2 90.06250774 82.24946353 78.98960639 73.96722487 50.29881619 31.09679922
2020 Q3 82.8934208 75.71878895 72.93474417 68.54432113 47.74736636 29.87809002
2020 Q4 82.99870713 76.03723801 73.14450524 68.94245328 49.21729673 31.07626265
2021 Q1 82.2364734 75.35864832 72.32296517 67.41245644 47.95464345 31.62121732
2021 Q2 81.1848673 74.36901386 71.16410059 66.48451523 46.92086313 31.64349155
2021 Q3 80.89225761 74.28846784 71.00364315 66.48819882 47.47956131 32.38201971
2021 Q4 80.17803649 73.71219101 70.61143136 66.34547338 47.51310132 32.67356246
2022 Q1 78.99670744 72.85759628 69.66239762 65.10928434 46.74304946 32.4115764
2022 Q2 76.41320811 70.25012411 67.02902625 62.47270161 44.7519778 30.89676502
2022 Q3 74.28888076 68.16087563 65.06545283 60.58033191 42.99558787 29.1779138
2022 Q4 73.63044082 67.46139255 64.54781653 59.89911075 42.15712356 28.37950904
2023 Q1 73.96762994 67.67295433 64.66251354 60.25084574 41.71138089 25.61260285
2023 Q2 74.79879946 68.55468991 65.55756872 61.15653604 41.30611806 24.60330185
2023 Q3 74.44658235 68.12666588 65.18893496 60.73185682 40.87894487 23.88230529
2023 Q4 74.67618603 68.1832118 65.2819301 60.8648965 41.25830497 23.93592864

Note: The black striped area denotes the period from 2008:Q4 to 2012:Q4, when insured deposits increased because of the Transaction Account Guarantee program. The “other” category consists of variable-rate demand obligations (VRDOs), federal funds, funding-agreement-backed securities, private liquidity funds, offshore money market funds, short-term investment funds, local government investment pools, and stablecoins. Securities lending includes only lending collateralized by cash. GDP is gross domestic product. Values for VRDOs come from Bloomberg beginning in 2019:Q1. See Jack Bao, Josh David, and Song Han (2015), “The Runnables,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 3), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/the-runnables-20150903.html.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Private Funds Statistics; iMoneyNet, Inc., Offshore Money Fund Analyzer; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: U.S. Municipal Variable-Rate Demand Obligation Update; Risk Management Association, Securities Lending Report; DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation: commercial paper data; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, “Financial Accounts of the United States”; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); gross domestic product, Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics; Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

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Figure 4.2. The amount of high-quality liquid assets held by most banks stabilized in the second half of 2023

This is a line chart titled "The amount of high-quality liquid assets held by most banks stabilized in the second half of 2023." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2023. The y-axis represents liquid assets as a percent of total assets, and ranges from 0 to 32 percent. The data are quarterly. There are three variables in the chart. The first line, labeled "G-SIBs", is designated by a red line and ranges from about 6 to 31 percent. It begins around 10 percent and remains there until 2004. The series then falls to around 6 percent by 2006, staying there until 2008. The series jumps sharply to 13 percent in late 2008, and then increases steadily to 22 percent through 2014. The series remains around 22 percent until early 2019 when it temporarily dips to 20 percent, before rising quickly to about 31 percent by the end of 2021. The series then declines sharply to about 25 percent in 2023:Q2, then rises to 26 percent in 2023:Q4. The second line, labeled "Large non-G-SIBs", is designated by a blue line and ranges from 6 to about 25 percent. This variable falls from about 10 percent to about 6 percent in 2008:Q2 before rising to 14 percent by 2011. The series falls to 12 percent in 2013 before rising slowly to 16 percent in 2017, then declining slightly to around 15 percent by the end of 2019. The series then rises sharply from early 2020 to early 2021 to about 25 percent, before falling to about 18 percent by 2022:Q4 and then rising to about 21 percent as of 2023:Q4. The third line, labeled "Other BHCs" is designated by a black line and ranges from about 5 percent to about 18 percent. The series falls from about 11 percent in 2001 to about 5 percent in 2008:Q1 and then rises steadily to about 12 percent in 2011 where it remains until the end of 2012. The line then declines steadily to around 10 percent at the end of 2019 before sharply increasing to about 19 percent by 2021:Q4. The series then declines to about 12 percent at the end of the series in 2023:Q4.

Note: The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs), intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Liquid assets are cash plus estimates of securities that qualify as high-quality liquid assets as defined by the Liquidity Coverage Ratio requirement. Accordingly, Level 1 assets as well as discounts and restrictions on Level 2 assets are incorporated into the estimate.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies

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Figure 4.3. Banks' reliance on short-term wholesale funding remained low

This is a line chart titled "Banks' reliance on short-term wholesale funding remained low." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2023. The y-axis represents short-term wholesale funding as a percent of assets, and ranges from 5 to 40 percent. The data are quarterly. There is one variable charted on the plot. The variable is designated by a black line and ranges from about 10 to 35 percent. The variable begins near 27 percent in 2000:Q1, declines steadily to about 23 percent in 2003:Q4, increases to about 33 percent by the end of 2006 and remains there until 2008:Q1. It then steadily declines to about 16 percent in 2015:Q1 and remains near that level through 2019:Q3 before steadily declining to about 11 percent in 2021:Q4. The series then increases to 16 percent in 2023:Q3 and ends in a slight decline to 15.6 percent in 2023:Q4.

Note: Short-term wholesale funding is defined as the sum of large time deposits with maturity less than 1 year, federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreements to repurchase, deposits in foreign offices with maturity less than 1 year, trading liabilities (excluding revaluation losses on derivatives), and other borrowed money with maturity less than 1 year. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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Figure A. Outstanding balances of the Bank Term Funding Program declined in early 2024

Billions of dollars

Date Outstanding balance
2023-02-22 0
2023-03-01 0
2023-03-08 0
2023-03-15 11.943
2023-03-22 53.669
2023-03-29 64.403
2023-04-05 79.021
2023-04-12 71.837
2023-04-19 73.982
2023-04-26 81.327
2023-05-03 75.778
2023-05-10 83.101
2023-05-17 87.006
2023-05-24 91.907
2023-05-31 93.615
2023-06-07 100.161
2023-06-14 101.969
2023-06-21 102.735
2023-06-28 103.081
2023-07-05 101.959
2023-07-12 102.305
2023-07-19 102.927
2023-07-26 105.078
2023-08-02 105.684
2023-08-09 106.864
2023-08-16 107.242
2023-08-23 107.386
2023-08-30 107.527
2023-09-06 107.855
2023-09-13 107.993
2023-09-20 107.599
2023-09-27 107.715
2023-10-04 107.665
2023-10-11 108.884
2023-10-18 108.818
2023-10-25 109.068
2023-11-01 109.07
2023-11-08 112.935
2023-11-15 112.942
2023-11-22 114.099
2023-11-29 113.871
2023-12-06 121.695
2023-12-13 123.764
2023-12-20 131.335
2023-12-27 135.805
2024-01-03 141.202
2024-01-10 147.175
2024-01-17 161.501
2024-01-24 167.768
2024-01-31 165.238
2024-02-07 164.869
2024-02-14 164.772
2024-02-21 164.231
2024-02-28 163.474
2024-03-06 164.022
2024-03-13 167.463
2024-03-20 150.183
2024-03-27 132.806
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Figure 4.4. Assets under management at money market funds continued to rise

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets under management at money market funds continued to rise." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 7000 in billions of dollars (real). The data are monthly. There are four variables in the chart. The first variable is labeled "Government." It is designated by the beige portion of the chart and ranges from about 500 to about 4900. This variable starts around 600 billion dollars and remains around that level until mid-2007. The series then increases to around 2000 billion dollars by the start of 2009 before falling back to around 1000 billion dollars by 2011. The series remains around this level until the end of 2015 when the series increases rapidly to around 2700 billion dollars by the end of 2016. The series stays at this level until the end of 2018, when it begins a steady rise to about 3000 billion dollars by the end of 2019 and rises sharply to its series maximum of around 4650 billion dollars in early 2020 before steadily falling to about 4000 billion by October 2022. The variable then remains at 4000 billion until February 2023, after which it saw a pronounced rise to just over 4800 as of January 2024. The second portion is labeled "Tax exempt." This series is designated by the red portion of the chart and ranges from about 90 to about just over 700. This variable starts around 380 billion dollars and increases continuously to the peak value of around 700 billion dollars in 2008. Starting in 2009, the variable declines quickly and then more gradually through 2015, ending 2015 at around 300 billion dollars. The series drops sharply to 160 billion dollars in 2016 and remains at that level through mid-2020, before declining steadily to around 90 by January 2022. The variable then slowly increases to around 110 by January 2024. The third portion is labeled "Retail prime" and is designated by the light blue portion of the chart. The variable ranges from about 200 to around 1400 billion. This variable starts at 1300 billion dollars and fluctuates around this level through early 2002. The variable declines gradually from mid-2002 until 2005 where it hits a low of around 850 billion dollars. The series then increases steadily through 2008 when it reaches a local peak of around 1100 billion dollars. The series then falls quickly, and then more slowly, through 2015, ending 2015 at about 600 billion dollars. The series falls sharply in 2016 to about 320 billion dollars and remains there until mid-2018. It then increases steadily to around 550 billion dollars by early 2020. The series falls sharply to 350 billion dollars in mid-2020 before decreasing to about 200 billion dollars by April 2022. The variable then increases to about 715 billion dollars by the end of the series in January 2024. The fourth portion is labeled "Institutional prime". It is designated by the dark blue filled portion of the chart and ranges from about 160 to just under 1800. This variable starts at 770 billion dollars and generally increases from 2000 through 2002 to about 1400 billion dollars. From 2003 through early 2005, the series falls to about 900 billion dollars and then starts rising again, hitting about 1800 billion dollars in August 2008. The variable has a sharp decline in late 2008 to about 1300 billion dollars before quickly rebounding to about 1700 billion dollars in August 2009. The series generally falls over the next few years, hitting about 1200 billion dollars by early 2012, where it remains until late 2015. The variable experiences an accelerating decline beginning in early 2016, ending the year with its series minimum value of around 150 billion dollars. The series increases through early 2020 to about 370 billion dollars, drops sharply in March 2020 to 260 billion dollars, increases back to about 360 billion dollars, before declining steadily to 220 billion dollars by June 2022. The series increases slightly to around 280 billion dollars by the end of the series in January 2024.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.5. Market capitalization of major stablecoins increased slightly since late last year

Billions of dollars

Date Other TerraUSD Dai Binance USD USD Coin Tether
2020-12-31 27.95769931 26.90580901 26.72195681 25.55852475 24.661137 20.95346883
2021-01-01 28.30055325 27.20588009 27.02560442 25.85374113 24.86680898 20.93511699
2021-01-02 28.88444069 27.75732416 27.57391081 26.36265557 25.28732776 21.16573574
2021-01-03 29.10249253 27.92797897 27.74475796 26.55387101 25.40800074 21.26914206
2021-01-04 29.33088254 28.17689296 27.99747232 26.75050937 25.57929965 21.36592152
2021-01-05 29.64883402 28.50557083 28.32404212 27.00784446 25.9748645 21.80181764
2021-01-06 30.19711903 28.95083149 28.76372974 27.44261331 26.37135775 21.99902318
2021-01-07 30.77427048 29.48121766 29.28895569 27.96711867 26.85908776 22.4747342
2021-01-08 31.34457878 30.00310557 29.81736085 28.45310987 27.35542791 22.85107341
2021-01-09 32.17136007 30.84325353 30.65341259 29.26426579 28.15951594 23.58372738
2021-01-10 32.77078792 31.42713822 31.24299952 29.81978534 28.66395563 23.91393401
2021-01-11 33.29392432 31.94571704 31.75878291 30.32824209 29.16114635 24.32953234
2021-01-12 33.49849894 32.17126599 31.98087129 30.59367856 29.530556 24.68539183
2021-01-13 33.19607948 31.7845691 31.58756374 30.21484573 29.14946803 24.35116546
2021-01-14 33.17551157 31.83555243 31.64538807 30.2745847 29.19909706 24.42538698
2021-01-15 33.13916469 31.70597406 31.50604173 30.09561774 29.00921378 24.16227232
2021-01-16 33.25177927 31.80678887 31.60972184 30.31878552 29.16459967 24.27945985
2021-01-17 33.58139842 32.12003418 31.92278897 30.55105475 29.41272117 24.36796951
2021-01-18 33.59238103 32.07321532 31.8876049 30.50497661 29.34270752 24.28103872
2021-01-19 33.80388794 32.24840315 32.04935531 30.64348428 29.49388451 24.3654354
2021-01-20 33.70022582 32.09450021 31.89952133 30.4968413 29.3527198 24.23694677
2021-01-21 34.3744515 32.75932685 32.55510064 31.14905214 30.02213015 24.71841086
2021-01-22 34.71235376 33.12397261 32.91670646 31.50299051 30.39803447 25.01869319
2021-01-23 34.78230468 33.18394784 32.96755479 31.52271005 30.33671362 24.81154118
2021-01-24 34.79119494 33.17727281 32.95088477 31.49043501 30.30506148 24.71214651
2021-01-25 35.02913351 33.39237797 33.1685963 31.63441514 30.41200109 24.80285357
2021-01-26 35.17638355 33.52197769 33.27452952 31.69648117 30.49795949 24.96456882
2021-01-27 35.3360144 33.63591275 33.37994274 31.78275057 30.56250273 25.13978388
2021-01-28 35.73453527 34.04360177 33.78628653 32.18010577 30.81109547 25.30757527
2021-01-29 35.934634 34.23174743 33.96548165 32.35417196 30.95796047 25.35001807
2021-01-30 36.00283817 34.30340022 34.03176029 32.41430471 30.92971437 25.1038313
2021-01-31 37.09560694 35.37434093 35.09778043 33.45669674 31.98422581 26.16883134
2021-02-01 37.49863188 35.75673323 35.47495901 33.82897038 32.35806915 26.48368276
2021-02-02 37.40523351 35.68223177 35.40679061 33.75337305 32.34360595 26.47245996
2021-02-03 37.83524094 36.09909832 35.82257265 34.11510118 32.7071903 26.76241111
2021-02-04 38.29483427 36.55232441 36.28594929 34.5514713 33.124078 27.03811174
2021-02-05 38.86683309 37.1338696 36.87580868 35.10440198 33.65141374 27.50282945
2021-02-06 39.59185734 37.8090357 37.54099343 35.71972387 34.20203665 27.87307723
2021-02-07 40.18689631 38.37760626 38.11662744 36.29229875 34.73828231 28.30060295
2021-02-08 40.42500413 38.5917556 38.31994673 36.5173874 34.97700024 28.52820663
2021-02-09 41.0879048 39.21260359 38.93277007 37.04191519 35.48122491 28.94891902
2021-02-10 42.14689548 40.10283964 39.81028425 37.86416441 36.26369907 29.62631407
2021-02-11 42.92356006 40.87568612 40.5674744 38.60132797 36.93758363 30.19617679
2021-02-12 43.63732045 41.60595762 41.27529841 39.24504935 37.56921745 30.6771049
2021-02-13 44.13606922 42.05996425 41.6933193 39.64952171 37.99747682 30.97653927
2021-02-14 44.99256276 42.8701672 42.47526505 40.40516576 38.68626318 31.50083867
2021-02-15 45.548039 43.46719111 43.0452501 40.97943333 39.23866301 31.83188554
2021-02-16 45.79150322 43.72822749 43.29493299 41.17191765 39.54843736 32.12563344
2021-02-17 46.13722772 44.07183993 43.61046516 41.41160203 39.8251391 32.35744786
2021-02-18 46.14699828 44.06027088 43.57499123 41.3180106 39.6689349 32.41329191
2021-02-19 47.15950697 45.06637055 44.56318541 42.25941036 40.52922732 33.16753766
2021-02-20 48.56411683 46.38602686 45.85888461 43.52442137 41.55796359 33.96443006
2021-02-21 49.65900913 47.43020054 46.88747167 44.52430618 42.34687368 34.54575309
2021-02-22 49.83232447 47.55044322 46.98718035 44.59302759 42.39668819 34.51004645
2021-02-23 50.47609555 48.24725427 47.65579976 45.27857597 43.01713555 34.93974913
2021-02-24 50.60904983 48.27646092 47.67972356 45.36024461 43.19994832 35.02548293
2021-02-25 51.4526938 49.10478066 48.49144524 46.14351447 43.86288792 35.41640669
2021-02-26 51.01283974 48.71182705 48.08629856 45.75652719 43.4700139 35.08360031
2021-02-27 52.25171879 49.87116609 49.21234121 46.87981114 44.52995829 35.58185998
2021-02-28 51.63640175 49.255286 48.57996752 46.24243436 43.86330363 34.80876227
2021-03-01 52.38109265 49.95613715 49.26689204 46.89891496 44.54689609 35.56829366
2021-03-02 52.91708989 50.31211769 49.60243299 47.12672959 44.57236603 35.49510761
2021-03-03 53.67679323 51.10450715 50.3712967 47.82791608 44.96329999 35.94897227
2021-03-04 53.23990377 50.67674548 49.95309115 47.42209689 44.61810673 35.82181994
2021-03-05 54.36836271 51.84371108 51.09553001 48.51850188 45.54449183 36.55712262
2021-03-06 54.36817103 51.85482635 51.08408889 48.5303969 45.32190114 36.38730059
2021-03-07 54.67663241 52.20847805 51.43097947 48.84155092 45.6052678 36.57262851
2021-03-08 54.8386355 52.35230708 51.56083503 49.01103363 45.85074158 36.65206318
2021-03-09 54.56590118 52.08418013 51.26875946 48.69077774 45.677574 36.49901303
2021-03-10 55.28377746 52.81889074 51.98338431 49.33852552 46.15096314 36.98440141
2021-03-11 55.52656088 53.07434264 52.2068458 49.58195917 46.36793814 37.18534023
2021-03-12 56.18631974 53.69153069 52.78475519 50.10792308 46.9782526 37.66631037
2021-03-13 57.04816344 54.5328935 53.56240766 50.83152167 47.62575359 38.26734084
2021-03-14 57.3378383 54.8011031 53.78330993 51.02336442 47.82986228 38.38604884
2021-03-15 57.37619607 54.79603759 53.77564941 51.00051921 47.88859967 38.53341151
2021-03-16 57.69429699 55.10917513 54.04847672 51.26172114 48.16546189 38.65033313
2021-03-17 57.9741529 55.39178509 54.23817393 51.42889017 48.35596355 38.77924519
2021-03-18 58.56942192 55.9303834 54.73251191 51.86632747 48.76038224 39.11822814
2021-03-19 58.94655229 56.28466116 55.03296061 52.14686596 48.94938873 39.17786256
2021-03-20 59.62860803 56.97340655 55.68225839 52.80633342 49.58013878 39.57494599
2021-03-21 60.00242991 57.35656903 56.0571574 53.17297918 49.91856732 39.86406695
2021-03-22 60.25557685 57.60509195 56.27132891 53.36959995 50.1292946 39.86815334
2021-03-23 60.41660322 57.86324444 56.49632988 53.56340067 50.19816582 39.92176543
2021-03-24 60.20191748 57.5971101 56.19481094 53.28012774 49.90484295 39.61437558
2021-03-25 60.42546915 57.87780445 56.44801324 53.52610782 50.21159507 39.82951277
2021-03-26 60.96129211 58.43206004 56.99212725 54.07000584 50.80547666 40.28031622
2021-03-27 61.73056545 58.99498071 57.49795503 54.53492802 51.1447271 40.27196838
2021-03-28 62.09509749 59.3503854 57.84040619 54.85725815 51.41608208 40.51576036
2021-03-29 62.78084732 59.95126736 58.33906298 55.33772356 51.84120967 40.83650954
2021-03-30 62.22461785 59.38874125 57.8095143 54.82409002 51.34428573 40.49650948
2021-03-31 62.70884013 59.84250495 58.2362812 55.22086289 51.63747349 40.72639826
2021-04-01 62.65331348 59.75435939 58.13430277 55.12524456 51.64329897 40.82866236
2021-04-02 62.75345552 59.87705517 58.22982489 55.26413093 51.73681952 40.86522903
2021-04-03 66.32674456 61.25247766 59.5894152 56.54759894 52.7215143 41.81313307
2021-04-04 67.00624527 61.92939079 60.25618402 57.19673437 53.24105602 42.47584077
2021-04-05 67.77948139 62.37599741 60.68965982 57.62070898 53.59319523 42.51618564
2021-04-06 67.58064092 62.37348682 60.68673822 57.6336941 53.55049799 42.51578376
2021-04-07 68.15358504 62.86171149 61.15477892 58.0916441 54.07356266 43.13812547
2021-04-08 67.65701572 63.11170383 61.41867969 58.35833319 54.16393732 43.15497075
2021-04-09 68.94326785 64.53048266 62.78784418 59.74395074 55.10065523 43.90733989
2021-04-10 69.29147062 64.81542034 63.06757438 60.02535205 55.09538172 43.86214161
2021-04-11 70.19615769 65.57965455 63.79951241 60.68338924 55.72878647 44.52636862
2021-04-12 70.21162026 65.72320101 63.97452995 60.82356757 55.78837978 44.48783888
2021-04-13 70.06342741 65.59600623 63.844713 60.71225562 55.64559963 44.63265083
2021-04-14 71.37020377 66.96690819 65.17745492 62.00666724 56.74870916 45.57392845
2021-04-15 72.25861099 67.66415352 65.89098293 62.73720266 57.39986711 45.91356418
2021-04-16 73.42538922 68.71977633 66.93879743 63.7364595 58.20181747 46.60066062
2021-04-17 75.02169924 70.16214868 68.33159992 65.01974054 58.86951132 46.91606012
2021-04-18 76.5827044 71.83376715 70.05152142 66.60967933 60.36282202 48.04515481
2021-04-19 78.2265181 72.76224065 70.9557409 67.52083165 61.11588007 48.46853591
2021-04-20 78.16065018 72.854545 71.05275963 67.63060861 60.99558077 48.23825855
2021-04-21 79.69391551 73.96642147 72.13297175 68.68064845 61.82380192 48.83999845
2021-04-22 80.46216755 74.62998176 72.77301007 69.35795367 62.11391128 49.03587517
2021-04-23 81.33904691 75.31663094 73.43540207 69.97542248 62.84988925 49.70979271
2021-04-24 81.11043615 75.04388923 73.16127309 69.72734333 62.84521416 49.56510599
2021-04-25 81.09370544 75.16387943 73.33030595 69.88809661 62.93377737 49.42916317
2021-04-26 82.82801387 76.60932169 74.72502668 71.25066794 64.15704288 50.49501513
2021-04-27 82.87359046 76.57304253 74.6809817 71.19188812 63.99402742 50.20767742
2021-04-28 83.22628367 76.87295895 74.94297241 71.39349511 63.9903421 50.13050926
2021-04-29 84.20075316 77.78916649 75.84885749 72.27445121 65.11673348 51.19104258
2021-04-30 84.71299736 78.82723188 76.79694879 73.12110422 65.91393221 51.28869907
2021-05-01 85.0804633 79.05309871 77.04329557 73.38788608 65.93127563 51.25070345
2021-05-02 85.78620488 79.72481594 77.73214135 73.99891449 66.41685501 51.70771641
2021-05-03 86.35665766 80.26696104 78.31131558 74.52123067 66.70045613 52.02562942
2021-05-04 86.88472051 80.43272614 78.43021935 74.52235581 67.04553464 52.40020709
2021-05-05 87.0803587 80.6325848 78.66084175 74.69473868 67.21858743 52.46422302
2021-05-06 88.45978091 81.90524643 79.88461235 75.78742528 68.02897981 52.94389222
2021-05-07 89.65708753 83.11303096 81.08196335 76.79067261 68.80659537 53.7551333
2021-05-08 91.14857537 84.53345083 82.48115493 78.10405024 70.28280327 55.06967438
2021-05-09 91.93638922 85.17700284 83.14200153 78.73259828 70.83880992 55.408048
2021-05-10 92.64681048 85.95168386 83.87538336 79.37166345 71.52468929 55.85154552
2021-05-11 93.46935143 86.82810138 84.76904758 80.15754881 72.18529591 56.5072768
2021-05-12 94.1683273 87.22095739 85.1414345 80.54255467 72.55059658 56.78231924
2021-05-13 95.01577244 88.10059085 86.02290958 81.3830484 73.43567461 57.83548226
2021-05-14 94.98471898 88.12223219 86.01229071 81.53659023 73.66308136 57.52852835
2021-05-15 95.73306975 88.83445862 86.72267802 82.12303837 74.25010101 57.94790987
2021-05-16 96.07737095 89.22859167 87.15731834 82.53994474 74.6777371 58.09308678
2021-05-17 97.01226123 90.05467772 87.94781046 83.25769018 75.31063849 58.57696814
2021-05-18 97.40250984 90.57835381 88.4827193 83.7371297 75.77606514 58.73818083
2021-05-19 96.69338643 89.93936883 87.84568661 83.09166863 75.15575865 58.11073732
2021-05-20 95.17145706 89.34869116 87.29713065 82.94253472 75.23459349 57.84422355
2021-05-21 97.27413895 91.3870201 89.35411021 85.07114647 76.93172512 58.73549639
2021-05-22 98.71386653 92.71882728 90.73975626 86.49178082 78.011859 58.56453863
2021-05-23 100.5029643 94.54356308 92.53053138 88.27914618 79.76441698 59.93892354
2021-05-24 100.6671323 94.83324836 92.93061868 88.86712322 80.25453114 59.77923724
2021-05-25 101.4164087 95.55323945 93.66337246 89.43337865 80.80319521 59.97441399
2021-05-26 102.0686901 96.31365968 94.36379306 90.08498524 81.25543683 60.37743659
2021-05-27 103.8158853 97.76351994 95.7763138 91.40937933 82.42752891 60.80494259
2021-05-28 104.110414 98.09831165 96.15317878 91.75546619 83.04392079 61.01207405
2021-05-29 105.2415325 99.19373235 97.21454241 92.75110977 83.74889828 61.38527217
2021-05-30 104.7059632 98.68365233 96.70849953 92.21630845 83.48039248 61.36548521
2021-05-31 105.1178462 99.07488464 97.13819453 92.69877407 84.11497802 61.6790966
2021-06-01 105.6035276 99.47176322 97.51267281 93.07263761 84.40605748 61.6621247
2021-06-02 106.4365853 100.1711667 98.21378217 93.78471648 84.98606472 62.25532114
2021-06-03 106.1790563 100.0036295 98.06319754 93.642439 84.58865266 61.87269249
2021-06-04 106.91059 100.6264897 98.66810085 94.16206803 84.8240151 61.85483789
2021-06-05 107.4363932 101.1337497 99.20642488 94.65643692 85.12305254 62.20046009
2021-06-06 107.8066449 101.4221256 99.49403457 94.93361793 85.36142976 62.38249724
2021-06-07 108.5860036 102.1158279 100.1982861 95.60165978 85.90263905 62.75058053
2021-06-08 107.9957236 101.5190734 99.62804858 94.96252608 85.53073521 62.46275456
2021-06-09 108.7916494 102.2426068 100.3249512 95.65405488 86.01851964 62.76536908
2021-06-10 109.3132529 102.5409223 100.5986754 95.70926571 86.17526259 62.77688364
2021-06-11 108.9773761 102.5740748 100.6769894 95.77552218 86.52148408 63.26893748
2021-06-12 108.6962056 102.8770836 100.9854333 95.98986673 86.35129321 62.85617211
2021-06-13 109.3180746 103.4714916 101.5670064 96.57234664 86.95571932 63.31077873
2021-06-14 109.1020506 103.2095308 101.2927243 96.29497574 86.62603214 62.70155095
2021-06-15 109.353118 103.3967466 101.4740024 96.43940233 86.90203671 62.91426346
2021-06-16 109.6254357 103.6911193 101.7739601 96.62349093 87.11397647 63.13696174
2021-06-17 108.448383 102.6945054 100.7920664 95.69021185 86.40264832 62.58696083
2021-06-18 109.1850751 103.4500926 101.5362342 96.51871755 87.17081209 63.099668
2021-06-19 109.307233 103.6008727 101.691481 96.65789606 87.22866324 62.8369332
2021-06-20 109.7326235 104.0728464 102.1500229 97.08960925 87.63676824 63.28805837
2021-06-21 109.9501251 104.2392544 102.3135814 97.32425411 87.5808395 62.90846383
2021-06-22 109.232491 103.8777181 101.9693453 97.115194 87.29196455 62.25910177
2021-06-23 110.5187852 105.1370605 103.2224188 98.36953997 88.56612309 63.24341188
2021-06-24 110.9636082 105.5118048 103.5928293 98.67278288 88.90242752 63.23704345
2021-06-25 110.881981 105.4576097 103.5448304 98.60801154 88.64436047 63.10367135
2021-06-26 111.0066489 105.5741504 103.6419802 98.77071351 88.78885424 62.81485308
2021-06-27 112.1504566 106.7031804 104.7817411 99.83304684 89.78613305 63.83136744
2021-06-28 111.8398371 106.3474029 104.4197479 99.43544336 89.42641872 63.35210191
2021-06-29 110.999481 105.6549082 103.7269509 98.75656862 88.60147748 63.20016214
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2022-01-01 166.2660285 154.0251877 143.8972692 134.957596 120.5176462 78.28579506
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2022-01-05 167.4724104 155.013484 144.6750091 135.5809709 121.1761298 78.39902067
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2022-01-09 167.4697566 155.2498539 144.8206629 135.8527075 121.6726242 78.11598649
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2022-01-11 168.6502194 156.2190353 145.6828886 136.6626921 122.5867398 78.56770601
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2022-01-22 171.4284835 158.9872796 148.0669412 138.8780404 124.6501515 78.08729116
2022-01-23 173.6517186 161.4059006 150.3269476 141.1683891 126.8017252 78.64540145
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2023-03-23 133.1677526 126.5835719 126.3736744 121.0731593 112.9431487 78.24308985
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2023-07-11 127.0425783 118.8684817 118.7466604 114.4613227 110.4132148 83.3070411
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2023-07-18 126.8773862 118.9270714 118.7590323 114.4913172 110.5458734 83.72962932
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2023-09-01 125.2464419 116.9741416 116.8558875 111.6439998 108.6628859 82.76528189
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2023-10-19 124.3530733 116.3305296 116.22234 110.7426717 108.6375053 83.8757997
2023-10-20 124.943917 116.4810732 116.3761824 110.8620041 108.7676339 83.90258146
2023-10-21 124.8468767 116.8726335 116.7642666 111.2257823 109.1263839 84.21438945
2023-10-22 124.8225347 116.8312983 116.7199646 111.1692057 109.06771 84.13135967
2023-10-23 124.8009534 116.7973898 116.6821067 111.1351963 109.0423876 84.14235967
2023-10-24 125.0938435 117.0491045 116.9344449 111.4180504 109.3207493 84.43265036
2023-10-25 124.3298302 116.3151544 116.2016766 110.7219465 108.6430936 84.18082837
2023-10-26 124.7389129 116.7158702 116.5935844 111.1163351 109.0332641 84.45305459
2023-10-27 124.7288235 116.7129455 116.5948026 111.1021847 109.0369596 84.48765572
2023-10-28 124.4546662 116.5412755 116.4245025 110.955837 108.895979 84.51523811
2023-10-29 124.4707622 116.5478638 116.4281595 110.991091 108.9291752 84.51523811
2023-10-30 124.5930911 116.6710635 116.5513984 111.1182234 109.0563076 84.59975335
2023-10-31 124.4046035 116.4677907 116.3483656 111.0055445 108.9778317 84.64916311
2023-11-01 124.2946505 116.3425756 116.2278205 110.9425141 108.9351972 84.76704658
2023-11-02 124.5638965 116.5731999 116.4562153 111.1196465 109.1196686 84.93431245
2023-11-03 124.4478128 116.3631633 116.2488672 110.928416 108.9810078 85.1375972
2023-11-04 124.8227958 116.6516531 116.539956 111.2104254 109.3105038 85.41521403
2023-11-05 124.9777358 116.7670773 116.6540489 111.3096537 109.4078322 85.42522403
2023-11-06 125.0441427 116.819903 116.7060362 111.3565101 109.4565885 85.45335213
2023-11-07 125.0873312 116.8586114 116.7432508 111.4223097 109.5275158 85.71210969
2023-11-08 125.4257327 117.1948132 117.0807302 111.7711801 109.8855456 86.14526707
2023-11-09 125.3821607 117.1427322 117.0255869 111.7425197 109.8546762 86.23608916
2023-11-10 125.5147164 117.2560787 117.1373194 111.8628593 109.9768774 86.48937473
2023-11-11 125.8495838 117.5637615 117.3982373 112.1423067 110.2565172 86.73844241
2023-11-12 125.8762698 117.6174991 117.483408 112.2066284 110.3287418 86.75724192
2023-11-13 125.8957349 117.6190634 117.4784799 112.2177277 110.3374953 86.7547128
2023-11-14 126.0448919 117.7765779 117.6470524 112.3934911 110.5330569 87.13644921
2023-11-15 125.9004377 117.6368711 117.5075144 112.2814695 110.4305459 87.25899582
2023-11-16 126.2389564 117.9870932 117.8493311 112.6369026 110.7913053 87.36434895
2023-11-17 126.5654367 118.3078606 118.175666 112.9630927 111.1201131 87.58952606
2023-11-18 126.748947 118.5305313 118.4011759 113.2070272 111.3991203 87.65040869
2023-11-19 126.9098744 118.6670011 118.5390019 113.3345953 111.5237692 87.7533744
2023-11-20 126.8972256 118.6541581 118.5247029 113.2946618 111.490516 87.68828369
2023-11-21 127.3660276 119.1207524 118.9907109 113.7673845 111.9649079 88.08721378
2023-11-22 127.4466215 119.2173962 119.0932779 113.8517666 112.0698244 88.36905884
2023-11-23 127.4796962 119.2845517 119.1535625 113.9290609 112.177872 88.43882771
2023-11-24 127.4658316 119.3623731 119.2332533 113.9989969 112.2413586 88.48699007
2023-11-25 128.0990741 119.9156966 119.7849047 114.5183829 112.7749994 88.77213426
2023-11-26 128.0984625 119.9247345 119.7750808 114.4957609 112.7523478 88.78965176
2023-11-27 128.344339 120.1498256 119.7244066 114.4454166 112.7002601 88.7559508
2023-11-28 128.1807991 120.0020973 119.5788206 114.311349 112.6018054 88.89722419
2023-11-29 128.4635009 120.3552931 119.9447417 114.6708742 112.976888 89.14088587
2023-11-30 128.6583147 120.6089827 120.0831626 114.8193277 113.1290183 89.34310533
2023-12-01 128.7427738 120.5852423 120.0716593 114.7940302 113.125039 89.31708045
2023-12-02 128.9179425 120.7624754 120.2350127 114.9665513 113.3056118 89.4991741
2023-12-03 128.9768995 120.8245212 120.3035581 115.0482228 113.3920416 89.5691241
2023-12-04 129.1891871 121.0332125 120.4202557 115.1391133 113.4838645 89.70934382
2023-12-05 128.9416671 120.8779292 120.3217515 115.0386741 113.4147531 89.77196568
2023-12-06 129.1703155 120.9979422 120.4894807 115.2097168 113.6074938 90.09580531
2023-12-07 129.1428126 120.9597406 120.5061598 115.188629 113.6050197 90.040209
2023-12-08 129.109399 121.1348961 120.7115759 115.39325 113.8517861 90.22800044
2023-12-09 129.3113423 121.3469298 120.9070938 115.565668 114.0565534 90.3077679
2023-12-10 129.5968431 121.6274721 121.2261231 115.8715113 114.3623347 90.5615691
2023-12-11 129.6442863 121.6578852 121.1766014 115.8103899 114.3018157 90.5010949
2023-12-12 129.3742146 121.4473053 121.040948 115.7179211 114.2403368 90.78801189
2023-12-13 128.7611415 120.8716818 120.4804021 115.2626769 113.793879 90.5280566
2023-12-14 129.191798 120.9857125 120.5867036 115.3962912 114.131168 90.5653378
2023-12-15 129.4657244 121.2719152 120.8742912 115.6847403 114.4248503 90.75057581
2023-12-16 129.6756313 121.2040859 120.8395181 115.6631732 114.4783979 90.75784853
2023-12-17 129.8331518 121.3458792 120.9809793 115.7705414 114.5775182 90.81401524
2023-12-18 129.8061035 121.3284404 120.9754625 115.7624203 114.5556413 90.78902196
2023-12-19 129.73256 121.3174538 120.9904381 115.7686747 114.5706408 90.70633737
2023-12-20 130.193934 121.5638907 121.2241296 116.001838 114.9818262 90.85219504
2023-12-21 130.5340704 121.8062919 121.4757359 116.2503932 115.2294034 90.9974784
2023-12-22 130.5343693 121.7888632 121.4452334 116.2211229 115.2052126 91.0426748
2023-12-23 130.9130219 122.2080296 121.8313437 116.5920555 115.5756195 91.16613436
2023-12-24 131.0632111 122.4170369 122.0590323 116.7901983 115.7747778 91.32416729
2023-12-25 130.9761698 122.3060196 121.974237 116.7128828 115.6954314 91.27645528
2023-12-26 130.9514099 122.2772327 121.9316957 116.6883036 115.6718676 91.2980652
2023-12-27 130.6216542 121.9484955 121.6229804 116.3980283 115.3789435 91.31553413
2023-12-28 131.0886852 122.3722099 122.0368597 116.8108676 115.789832 91.51844211
2023-12-29 130.8853666 122.2161845 121.9009507 116.7059659 115.6943914 91.49767742
2023-12-30 130.9795705 122.3874355 122.0731585 116.8743964 115.8553887 91.7433801
2023-12-31 130.9069532 122.3160156 121.9762381 116.7945963 115.7834395 91.76877046
2024-01-01 130.6214299 122.0291691 121.7096784 116.5453781 115.5294123 91.66591856
2024-01-02 131.1543461 122.5228144 122.1944845 116.9984189 115.9794112 91.95717375
2024-01-03 131.2772766 122.6635019 122.3452975 117.1326853 116.1226276 92.02011711
2024-01-04 131.7612584 123.0662509 122.8021317 117.5796832 116.5662694 92.35652636
2024-01-05 132.484838 123.7472822 123.4568181 118.2287083 117.2262925 92.8732247
2024-01-06 132.8790584 124.2847588 124.0129244 118.8119303 117.8649901 93.32040132
2024-01-07 133.2479078 124.6156719 124.3523894 119.1535112 118.22421 93.62152932
2024-01-08 133.1488881 124.5611395 124.3240809 119.1299074 118.1978211 93.58514532
2024-01-09 133.4457587 124.797809 124.5437791 119.3199907 118.5443384 94.05745678
2024-01-10 133.4159882 124.6494443 124.4047347 119.1741204 118.5488944 94.2286367
2024-01-11 133.8915804 125.1965286 124.9424988 119.7110578 119.0826802 94.68583413
2024-01-12 134.2385499 125.4688635 125.1886001 119.9514308 119.3768283 94.98032957
2024-01-13 134.1304524 125.3914223 125.1294057 119.9514308 119.3923131 94.94221125
2024-01-14 134.2173776 125.4742191 125.2017776 120.026312 119.4898377 94.95911822
2024-01-15 134.3728802 125.5892214 125.3253169 120.1822418 119.6465243 95.0779419
2024-01-16 134.0624465 125.4960374 125.223032 120.0844873 119.5594254 95.01453579
2024-01-17 134.048988 125.4283112 125.1472351 120.0139615 119.5976312 95.06894328
2024-01-18 134.0840989 125.4191436 125.1287358 120.0024173 119.7977137 95.04019458
2024-01-19 133.4215924 125.1387385 124.8570342 119.7470779 119.5965891 94.92442334
2024-01-20 133.5359446 125.0380113 124.7716459 119.6632519 119.5636217 94.90701192
2024-01-21 133.6153289 125.0754221 124.814584 119.7072758 119.6076456 94.84572275
2024-01-22 133.6342896 125.0322234 124.7740315 119.6752197 119.5757884 94.79105494
2024-01-23 133.7854531 125.0099762 124.7724109 119.6885317 119.5893386 94.86502611
2024-01-24 134.5718389 125.8599945 125.6291103 120.5197697 120.4201395 95.65950814
2024-01-25 134.4161978 125.7850385 125.5475525 120.4257339 120.3263025 95.51222846
2024-01-26 134.602473 126.0097822 125.775508 120.6246327 120.5252316 95.5435817
2024-01-27 134.8408397 126.5183847 126.2694526 121.1065564 121.0072406 95.96721871
2024-01-28 134.9244016 126.5834876 126.3236247 121.170667 121.0713739 95.96909999
2024-01-29 134.9816661 126.6230656 126.3668735 121.2131259 121.1136945 96.01970404
2024-01-30 135.3069592 126.9472358 126.6887784 121.5395659 121.4400351 96.04009547
2024-01-31 135.1103254 126.9519678 126.7026517 121.8170988 121.7178974 96.14051211
2024-02-01 135.1346206 126.9562552 126.7185138 121.8996067 121.8004945 96.00023443
2024-02-02 135.5044545 127.2947975 127.0579479 122.2375563 122.1378267 96.30514741
2024-02-03 135.4794658 127.2562975 127.0182661 122.1996587 122.1002644 96.20249429
2024-02-04 135.4556865 127.2535953 126.9975174 122.1802708 122.0810033 96.13523758
2024-02-05 135.520729 127.3101689 127.0656068 122.2495184 122.1502695 96.18186912
2024-02-06 135.3685976 127.1688678 126.9210984 122.1246052 122.0253167 96.06484928
2024-02-07 135.7080536 127.5120467 127.2663008 122.4505339 122.3512534 96.08091839
2024-02-08 136.0359094 127.8800596 127.6268911 122.8101592 122.7106284 96.269429
2024-02-09 136.332475 128.0439602 127.7917271 122.9873535 122.9025885 96.28957176
2024-02-10 136.5632407 128.1616419 127.9027637 123.0825716 122.9979757 96.20837838
2024-02-11 136.8362213 128.4367908 128.174088 123.3366874 123.2521759 96.42520726
2024-02-12 137.0629828 128.5887273 128.3305779 123.4743226 123.3891351 96.55872064
2024-02-13 136.6609459 128.4606911 128.1993338 123.3799493 123.2950153 96.63777043
2024-02-14 136.8385786 128.6247637 128.3684989 123.561168 123.4767849 96.78775838
2024-02-15 137.8168169 129.5318366 129.2616034 124.4408822 124.3556102 97.33624792
2024-02-16 137.7098511 129.4725736 129.1425854 124.314786 124.230021 97.30486893
2024-02-17 138.0508801 129.8008784 129.4869782 124.6650946 124.5803296 97.6346476
2024-02-18 138.2350957 129.9712666 129.6613343 124.8195474 124.7346979 97.7421741
2024-02-19 138.128496 129.8308517 129.5209324 124.6721458 124.5873808 97.66426035
2024-02-20 138.1518451 129.8284468 129.5029264 124.6070937 124.5225823 97.666842
2024-02-21 138.2296903 129.8533112 129.5493543 124.6912636 124.6067521 97.78771186
2024-02-22 138.252123 129.7967608 129.4986083 124.6464991 124.5619031 97.71263214
2024-02-23 138.6084711 129.8420809 129.5494649 124.7161752 124.6313257 97.75116757
2024-02-24 139.2694382 130.1093368 129.8036748 124.9507774 124.8659279 97.89785776
2024-02-25 139.0377174 130.0648693 129.7502247 124.8930366 124.8084406 97.8367695
2024-02-26 139.2160846 130.2199781 129.8483116 124.9764069 124.8917264 97.88894875
2024-02-27 139.6144261 130.5842324 130.2608143 125.3694649 125.2848689 98.07646675
2024-02-28 140.1916175 130.912122 130.588972 125.6860939 125.6013289 98.37806019
2024-02-29 140.6744819 131.2707088 130.9388465 126.0272169 125.9429149 98.65437683
2024-03-01 141.1280018 131.8336534 131.5163204 126.5850933 126.5002438 98.9329847
2024-03-02 141.5794826 132.3406839 132.0081101 127.0587856 126.9739361 99.27263372
2024-03-03 141.6943876 132.4113759 132.0573191 127.1399713 127.055463 99.42226026
2024-03-04 142.0302902 132.7394314 132.4060139 127.4686778 127.3839973 99.72490185
2024-03-05 142.1613424 132.9764215 132.6535929 127.7776166 127.6932575 100.238895
2024-03-06 142.4162823 133.1258721 132.7951979 128.0803153 127.9958404 100.5348358
2024-03-07 142.6373355 133.4527775 133.1313913 128.3502832 128.2658278 100.6225119
2024-03-08 142.9408053 133.9207083 133.5950648 129.2110478 129.1260293 101.2414171
2024-03-09 144.2220378 134.976923 134.6552335 130.3132678 130.2283338 101.7896287
2024-03-10 144.5155128 135.2383143 134.9155517 130.5755285 130.4903409 102.0163813
2024-03-11 144.6399228 135.4651154 135.1572235 130.6473973 130.5620407 102.0122558
2024-03-12 145.3943226 136.2104688 135.8909853 131.3869186 131.3006324 102.3671412
2024-03-13 145.6425282 136.5999544 136.2797362 131.7787504 131.6926332 102.7596398
2024-03-14 146.6514747 137.410401 137.0951917 132.572147 132.4841706 103.2272742
2024-03-15 146.9198926 137.5148269 137.2034965 132.6646031 132.5777253 103.4630828
2024-03-16 146.6626743 137.8451626 137.5620098 132.9493465 132.8621306 103.5146935
2024-03-17 146.7676003 137.9651863 137.7055464 133.0466863 132.9615833 103.5064804
2024-03-18 146.4372587 137.6370598 137.3754158 132.7600158 132.6758372 103.3688538
2024-03-19 147.2567244 138.2901733 138.0425189 133.3683742 133.2837782 103.656756
2024-03-20 147.4918242 138.8984023 138.6696037 134.0316255 133.9472131 104.0789476
2024-03-21 146.9964713 138.6667039 138.4213593 133.8277932 133.7434198 103.8921524
2024-03-22 147.799462 139.434239 139.1819015 134.5568404 134.4720754 104.1461526
2024-03-23 147.8902398 139.5086029 139.2577647 134.5559814 134.4713854 103.950512
2024-03-24 148.2363396 139.801966 139.5402222 134.763836 134.6791555 104.1015056
2024-03-25 148.5611636 140.0570374 139.7834896 135.0585241 134.9740126 104.2364556

Note: The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

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Figure 4.6. Corporate bonds held by bond mutual funds remained stable in the second half of 2023

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Corporate bonds
2000 Q1 389.8706164
2000 Q2 386.0006558
2000 Q3 370.6100645
2000 Q4 338.6399312
2001 Q1 346.8520233
2001 Q2 350.0228897
2001 Q3 345.9193982
2001 Q4 427.061778
2002 Q1 437.9606012
2002 Q2 486.7708085
2002 Q3 469.9963011
2002 Q4 470.7201022
2003 Q1 475.7678595
2003 Q2 523.793517
2003 Q3 528.8314338
2003 Q4 519.7791669
2004 Q1 563.8830092
2004 Q2 485.9768258
2004 Q3 487.2893858
2004 Q4 499.0823353
2005 Q1 473.1109252
2005 Q2 476.4692308
2005 Q3 441.7913265
2005 Q4 441.2692304
2006 Q1 453.9094548
2006 Q2 437.7102057
2006 Q3 438.9150027
2006 Q4 462.4091195
2007 Q1 467.9118288
2007 Q2 458.0678993
2007 Q3 444.8699162
2007 Q4 432.8614344
2008 Q1 421.7342279
2008 Q2 444.9834397
2008 Q3 409.6334724
2008 Q4 377.8773301
2009 Q1 398.6993971
2009 Q2 466.4459665
2009 Q3 524.938059
2009 Q4 599.4509881
2010 Q1 691.2747326
2010 Q2 697.9892745
2010 Q3 782.0829507
2010 Q4 897.4747774
2011 Q1 939.6548958
2011 Q2 942.4035211
2011 Q3 855.5395713
2011 Q4 891.8279756
2012 Q1 987.8044775
2012 Q2 1008.511677
2012 Q3 1104.247804
2012 Q4 1169.463697
2013 Q1 1199.674278
2013 Q2 1210.574663
2013 Q3 1238.217946
2013 Q4 1283.996141
2014 Q1 1325.847878
2014 Q2 1360.988529
2014 Q3 1344.176588
2014 Q4 1375.258431
2015 Q1 1429.352574
2015 Q2 1417.527167
2015 Q3 1401.135585
2015 Q4 1327.139775
2016 Q1 1382.13407
2016 Q2 1414.846288
2016 Q3 1452.865449
2016 Q4 1408.147596
2017 Q1 1447.415808
2017 Q2 1447.711506
2017 Q3 1452.040525
2017 Q4 1414.06858
2018 Q1 1391.417766
2018 Q2 1381.675969
2018 Q3 1432.193391
2018 Q4 1339.471035
2019 Q1 1463.046185
2019 Q2 1478.179974
2019 Q3 1509.21911
2019 Q4 1507.056084
2020 Q1 1430.933366
2020 Q2 1761.215476
2020 Q3 1805.799361
2020 Q4 1825.091568
2021 Q1 1815.166125
2021 Q2 1850.188492
2021 Q3 1780.273751
2021 Q4 1723.965707
2022 Q1 1526.238131
2022 Q2 1282.364647
2022 Q3 1197.052997
2022 Q4 1207.195144
2023 Q1 1236.208166
2023 Q2 1224.748028
2023 Q3 1168.005382
2023 Q4 1264.799

Note: The data show holdings of all U.S. corporate bonds by all U.S.-domiciled mutual funds (holdings of foreign bonds are excluded). The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.7. Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds stayed relatively flat through early 2024

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds stayed relatively flat through early 2024." The x-axis shows time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The y-axis is given in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 600 billion dollars. The data are monthly. There are two variables plotted in this chart. The first variable, 'Bank loan mutual funds,' is shown in a dark red shaded area of the chart. The series starts off at around 30 billion dollars in 2000 and hovers around there until late 2001 when it begins a steady decline to around 20 billion by late 2003. From here the series sees a prolonged rise to about 50-60 billion dollars by mid-2007, after which it sees a steady decline to around 30 by mid-2009. From there the series sees another period of steady growth until early-to-mid-2014, reaching its series peak just above 190 in March of 2014 before another period of decline, this time to around 110 billion dollars by mid-2016. The series then sees another period of growth, to around 160 billion dollars by mid-2018. The series then sees another drop to a sustained local minimum around 75 through 2020. The series then rises to around 130 billion dollars by mid-2022, after which the series declines to 78 billion dollars in mid-2023 then remains flat at around 80 billion dollars through February 2024. The second variable, 'High-yield bond mutual funds,' is shown in the beige shaded portion of the chart. It starts around 215 billion dollars in 2000 and generally declines until late 2002, reaching a local minimum of around 150 billion dollars. From there, the series sees a marked increase to around 225 billion by early 2004, before gradually declining to around 200 billion dollars by late 2008. The series then declines further to around 150 billion dollars in late 2009. The series next sees a rapid increase over several years, reaching a series maximum of around 375 billion dollars by late 2014. The series then declines steadily to around 250 billion dollars by late 2019/early 2020, before seeing another marked increase to local peak of around 340 billion dollars in mid-2021. The series then declines markedly to around 230 billion dollars at the end of 2022. The series remains around 240 billion until the series ends at 248 billion dollars in February 2024.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Investment Company Institute; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.8. Flows have stabilized for bond and bank loan mutual funds

This is a stacked bar chart titled "Flows have stabilized for bond and bank loan mutual funds." The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2017 to February 2024. The y-axis is in billions of dollars and ranges from negative 150 billion to 150 billion. The data are monthly. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first, "Investment-grade bond mutual funds" is shown in blue. The series starts at 5 billion in January 2017 and rises until March 2017 to 18 billion. It then oscillates within the range of 0 to 15 billion until September 2018 aside from one peak in January 2018 at 22 billion. In October 2018, the series drops to negative 14 billion, further declining to -21 billion dollars in December 2018. It increases to 0 in January 2019 and generally rises to a local peak of 27 billion dollars in January 2020. In March 2020, it plummets to negative 89 billion dollars before returning to a range of 22 to 42 billion through the rest of 2020. The series decreases to 28 billion in February 2021 and then continues to decrease through May 2022 to a local minimum of negative 40 billion dollars. The series gradually increases, with fluctuations, to February 2024, ending around 16 billion dollars. The second variable, "Bank loan mutual funds" is represented in red. It begins around 3 billion and decreases through December 2017 to about negative 1 billion. It then increases steadily through June 2018 to about 2.5 billion dollars. It decreases to about negative 5 billion in November 2018 before dropping dramatically in December 2018 to about negative 13 billion. The variable recovers slowly through 2019 and ends at about negative 3 billion dollars in December 2019. In January 2020, it increases to around 0 before declining slightly in February and sharply to negative 11 billion in March and then hovers around negative 2 billion dollars through October 2020. The series increases to 0 in December 2020 and then continues to increase to about 4 billion by April 2021. The series declined slightly to hover around 2 billion until increasing to its peak of about 8 billion in January 2022. The variable declined to around negative 5 billion in September 2022. The series then hovers around -5 billion until December 2022, increasing to just above zero in February 2024. The third variable, "High-yield bond mutual funds", is represented in beige. The bar begins around 700 million and decreases to around negative 7 billion in March 2017, staying negative or just barely above 0 through 2017. The series decreases significantly in February 2018 to -10 billion, and then increases to 1 billion dollars in April 2018. The series then remains between negative 2 billion and positive 1 billion through January 2019, where it reaches about 3 billion. The series again oscillates between about negative 4 billion and positive 1 billion until February 2020. In March 2020, the series steeply declines to its lowest point around negative 10 billion dollars before rebounding to its peak of 12 billion in May 2020. The series declines to about negative 2 billion in September 2020 and fluctuates between about negative 5 billion and 1 billion through the end of 2021. The series remains mostly negative hovering around negative 3 billion through 2022 and fluctuates between slightly above and slightly below 0 in 2023, ending around positive 2 billion dollars in February 2024.

Note: Mutual fund assets under management as of February 2024 included $2,263 billion in investment-grade bond mutual funds, $327 billion in high-yield bond mutual funds, and $79 billion in bank loan mutual funds. Bank loan mutual funds, also known as floating-rate bond funds, are excluded from high-yield bond mutual funds.

Source: Investment Company Institute.

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Figure 4.9. Life insurers continued to hold more risky, illiquid assets on their balance sheets

Billions of dollars (real)

Year Other ABS CRE loans CRE loans, securitized Alternative investments Illiquid corporate debt Illiquid corporate debt, securitized Share of life insurer assets Share of P&C insurer assets
2006 359.5649283 397.2617987 272.1277184 199.2158948 458.2322333 14.5057163 32.99056151 10.06832809
2007 379.3677089 413.0253757 306.1122433 259.2007339 460.3265973 19.75937973 35.08775239 12.35399907
2008 359.0086434 413.3077344 301.2171137 228.2363881 467.8255191 20.5338047 35.02897955 11.92256059
2009 320.1855176 401.6317887 303.6596671 233.5598198 474.9783523 24.06733543 33.76372385 10.95639515
2010 279.1916075 384.6494576 254.8163198 301.4173937 490.0486705 28.18413845 31.52856397 12.87905133
2011 276.902761 392.5926967 238.7646719 308.776819 490.9522564 33.47543218 30.74591014 13.43915127
2012 252.2395117 400.3555494 215.6453331 323.9060281 499.7782958 41.34491352 30.5946179 13.41937189
2013 242.9510058 416.6045544 207.509674 346.0653812 526.625468 55.3092029 30.54097261 14.95724337
2014 242.8818923 431.5816209 207.2846021 371.1354489 524.4605691 80.53147108 31.0375433 14.87665653
2015 228.4647695 463.8631575 200.8379066 360.7225955 544.7734486 94.75190925 31.10079988 15.02309701
2016 232.4406846 496.8443156 193.035305 373.5798354 570.1420283 100.3277551 31.13275658 15.11206765
2017 216.4641151 528.6688959 187.042115 398.8241728 572.1513384 108.8139103 31.24661641 14.68073194
2018 211.4190371 563.6226018 197.1783756 399.5268447 555.7905788 137.2586163 32.55631952 14.87043149
2019 208.1912439 611.51524 212.249953 436.5131957 621.8450739 162.2486214 34.43152545 15.12070302
2020 202.487511 628.4189825 222.026511 489.620471 715.0340093 196.6442436 35.25026266 16.15320918
2021 199.9973938 624.1855099 214.4457623 534.0703826 727.5985929 221.3613152 35.88067457 15.66800545
2022 191.0477001 613.7345732 200.9618644 505.1468528 739.3665428 238.9032785 37.79530838 15.14253508

Note: The data are converted to constant 2022 dollars using the consumer price index. Securitized products include collateralized loan obligations for corporate debt, private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities for commercial real estate (CRE), and private-label residential mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by autos, credit cards, consumer loans, and student loans for other ABS. Illiquid corporate debt includes private placements, bank and syndicated loans, and high-yield bonds. Alternative investments include assets filed under Schedule BA. P&C is property and casualty. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on data from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statutory Filings.

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Figure 4.10. Life insurers continued to use nontraditional liabilities for funding

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Repurchase agreements Securities lending cash collateral FHLB advances Funding-agreement-backed securities
2006 4.70391648 208.2364475 13.56838627 242.1066052
2007 4.026389985 211.7095965 24.48054124 250.4421221
2008 11.76081008 70.90053225 48.83373275 237.0312204
2009 14.4535938 54.17589265 64.46330065 168.6829058
2010 14.4005696 59.24987399 59.73087706 131.485346
2011 Q1 8.355164778 63.6810826 59.77879144 117.1660749
2011 Q2 9.198440185 62.77199012 58.72035657 110.8165428
2011 Q3 9.258937704 60.09423708 58.72284121 103.1643563
2011 Q4 9.608636132 57.46322054 59.25011476 102.9028768
2012 Q1 10.94971975 56.49405102 60.36941444 99.24300118
2012 Q2 14.11334648 64.78808423 64.41557627 100.8973372
2012 Q3 15.00077785 73.23752907 63.96850794 102.1521447
2012 Q4 14.95048256 71.50716637 62.21760587 97.99623644
2013 Q1 17.6222719 71.30180486 63.04232078 97.01285864
2013 Q2 17.56319253 72.49642158 64.22222675 86.81415372
2013 Q3 16.91305159 66.90935455 62.87199999 82.10604642
2013 Q4 15.11735044 73.50205924 63.9077285 79.78837094
2014 Q1 17.79222928 74.98343047 63.68517504 74.4796614
2014 Q2 17.83056336 77.238766 63.93918846 78.30628824
2014 Q3 19.63913283 81.06659253 64.3734909 81.89912611
2014 Q4 15.0036841 70.13383236 64.70977796 87.5330278
2015 Q1 14.4056747 70.57405815 67.81492926 90.71419149
2015 Q2 13.94768902 65.33154048 69.09885681 88.53892519
2015 Q3 13.97302548 64.84011837 70.63700166 83.21970602
2015 Q4 11.09470224 63.94877695 71.78794796 89.256356
2016 Q1 13.51841748 66.54881319 75.45087065 87.404754
2016 Q2 15.2340244 68.80031568 79.38663937 88.4730378
2016 Q3 16.21876595 70.09642826 82.56074051 88.64815455
2016 Q4 12.29465711 60.24450492 83.24804984 94.25011593
2017 Q1 16.21094756 63.45426818 86.0345583 95.58794404
2017 Q2 16.43796996 63.57048729 85.76966841 99.80909276
2017 Q3 17.98096832 64.31147645 85.66113105 108.6624579
2017 Q4 20.67641832 61.02557274 87.79067037 106.0405938
2018 Q1 20.37557613 64.13655094 93.47575474 108.4059412
2018 Q2 22.65225977 55.93486654 92.79307471 99.66124682
2018 Q3 22.0657697 56.7958704 91.00546861 109.35432
2018 Q4 21.90916067 50.71836759 93.95783499 106.6845895
2019 Q1 21.13389228 54.95306218 96.18360351 110.3496927
2019 Q2 19.8955614 54.47059125 95.13598712 108.3787502
2019 Q3 18.92365779 54.48667425 98.53653743 109.3340166
2019 Q4 20.33459243 53.55521668 101.7037102 111.4977321
2020 Q1 22.18025123 50.72430172 119.8795757 118.5874968
2020 Q2 24.76539701 57.07598683 123.1518166 124.516181
2020 Q3 24.44798153 56.15863709 118.2267256 132.6347085
2020 Q4 24.39871156 56.82053995 118.9214854 136.9888022
2021 Q1 30.21905963 60.81173752 127.5727133 148.3179721
2021 Q2 23.08861744 61.21733963 120.7766087 162.5251927
2021 Q3 20.51601744 66.14608821 116.7859825 171.8190488
2021 Q4 24.17751994 59.99885202 118.4697922 172.8211342
2022 Q1 22.74926253 60.25461078 127.9076338 184.6467791
2022 Q2 23.0136702 50.55273934 131.0027609 181.3847514
2022 Q3 24.08889204 45.63041088 132.7620178 178.2468276
2022 Q4 25.55558696 42.35898852 133.2915474 180.1436975
2023 Q1 25.45462896 44.13459321 137.106875 180.391177
2023 Q2 23.52192359 37.01198464 133.3171447 180.8135181
2023 Q3 21.57791998 39.63269251 135.3964353 183.2492657
2023 Q4 24.19641371 40.05008966 134.878983 184.237505

Note: The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index. FHLB is Federal Home Loan Bank. The data are annual from 2006 to 2010 and quarterly thereafter. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Program Index; Securities and Exchange Commission, Forms 10-Q and 10-K; National Association of Insurance Commissioners, quarterly and annual statutory filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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Figure A. Spring 2024: Most cited potential risks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure A: The chart is titled "Spring 2024: Most cited potential risks over the next 12 to 18 months." The x-axis ranges from 0 to 80 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 72 percent, Policy uncertainty at 60 percent, Commercial and residential real estate at 56 percent, Banking-sector stress at 44 percent, Fiscal debt sustainability at 40 percent, Market liquidity strains and volatility at 36 percent, Treasury market dysfunction/basis trade at 32 percent, U.S.-China tensions at 32 percent, Middle East tensions at 32 percent, Cyberattacks at 28 percent, and Severe U.S./global recession at 28 percent of respondents.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 25 market contacts from January to March.

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Figure B. Fall 2023: Most cited potential risks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure B: The chart is titled "Fall 2023: Most cited potential risks over the next 12 to 18 months." The x-axis ranges from 0 to 80 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 72 percent, Commercial and residential real estate at 72 percent, Banking-sector stress at 56 percent, Market liquidity strains and volatility at 56 percent, Fiscal debt sustainability at 44 percent, China economy/financial sector at 44 percent, Under-regulated nonbanks at 36 percent, Foreign divestment from U.S. assets at 32 percent, Higher long-term rates at 28 percent, Leverage buildup at 28 percent, and Russia-Ukraine war at 28 percent of respondents.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 25 market contacts from August to October.

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Last Update: May 09, 2024