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Release Date: January 15, 2021
Table 15 Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates
Seasonally adjusted Make Full Screen
Sector Annualized
Change
2012=100 Percent change
2020 2020 2020
Q3 Q4 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
       
Total index      
85th percentile 42.73 9.40 101.91 102.71 102.71 103.80 104.40 106.11 4.20 .79 .04 1.13 .77 1.92
Current estimate 42.51 8.40 101.91 102.66 102.60 103.61 104.09 105.72 4.20 .74 -.06 .98 .47 1.57
15th percentile 42.34 7.61 101.91 102.61 102.50 103.44 103.83 105.33 4.20 .69 -.14 .88 .22 1.23
       
  Manufacturing (SIC)      
85th percentile 56.61 12.00 97.70 99.15 99.30 100.63 101.49 102.57 4.20 1.48 .19 1.39 .98 1.20
Current estimate 56.34 11.16 97.70 99.09 99.18 100.45 101.26 102.19 4.20 1.42 .10 1.28 .80 .92
15th percentile 56.18 10.14 97.70 99.03 99.08 100.27 100.99 101.79 4.20 1.36 -.01 1.17 .65 .62
       
  Mining      
85th percentile 2.39 7.03 114.47 113.45 114.62 112.91 116.74 118.80 3.40 -.90 1.13 -1.25 3.65 2.57
Current estimate 1.82 3.69 114.47 113.31 114.31 112.36 115.48 117.36 3.40 -1.01 .88 -1.70 2.78 1.62
15th percentile 1.33 .52 114.47 113.16 113.96 111.78 114.29 115.86 3.40 -1.14 .59 -2.07 2.05 .74
       
  Electric and gas utilities      
85th percentile 16.34 1.06 106.70 104.90 102.61 105.37 102.06 108.17 5.10 -1.69 -2.16 2.77 -2.68 8.05
Current estimate 16.23 -3.89 106.70 104.89 102.56 104.75 100.04 106.26 5.10 -1.70 -2.22 2.14 -4.50 6.23
15th percentile 16.08 -5.85 106.70 104.87 102.47 104.47 98.82 105.15 5.10 -1.72 -2.31 1.92 -5.86 4.46
       
Note. The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More information is available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm#reliability.
Last Update: January 15, 2021