Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Release Date: November 16, 2018
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Notice Below

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere. As a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3 percent reported initially. Hurricanes lowered the level of industrial production in both September and October, but their effects appear to be less than 0.1 percent per month. In October, manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent for its fifth consecutive monthly increase, while the indexes for mining and for utilities declined 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. At 109.1 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.1 percent higher in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was 78.4 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2018 2018 Oct. '17 to
Oct. '18
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total index 106.8 107.5 107.9 108.8 109.0 109.1 -.8 .6 .4 .8 .2 .1 4.1
Previous estimates 106.8 107.5 107.8 108.2 108.5   -.8 .6 .3 .4 .3    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 101.2 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7 104.0 -2.3 1.0 .2 .7 .5 .4 2.7
Consumer goods 104.6 105.3 105.5 105.9 106.4 106.6 -2.6 .6 .2 .4 .4 .2 1.8
Business equipment 97.5 99.5 99.7 101.3 102.1 102.9 -2.2 2.1 .2 1.6 .8 .8 4.1
Nonindustrial supplies 107.3 107.3 107.1 107.1 107.0 107.0 -.3 .0 -.2 .0 -.1 .0 1.4
Construction 114.7 114.2 114.2 114.6 113.9 114.7 .3 -.4 .0 .4 -.6 .6 2.9
Materials 111.2 111.7 112.6 113.9 113.9 113.7 .3 .5 .8 1.2 -.1 -.1 6.1
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 103.3 104.0 104.4 104.8 105.1 105.4 -1.0 .7 .3 .4 .3 .3 2.7
Previous estimates 103.3 104.0 104.3 104.6 104.8   -.9 .7 .3 .3 .2    
Mining 120.7 122.8 123.9 126.9 126.7 126.3 1.0 1.8 .9 2.4 -.1 -.3 13.1
Utilities 105.7 104.1 104.2 105.4 105.2 104.7 -2.5 -1.6 .1 1.1 -.1 -.5 1.7
Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2017 		1988-
89
high 		1990-
91
low 		1994-
95
high 		 
2009
low 		 
2017
Oct. 		   
2018 Oct. '17 to
Oct. '18
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total industry 79.8 85.2 78.8 85.0 66.7 76.8 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.5 78.5 78.4 1.9
Previous estimates             77.5 77.8 77.9 78.1 78.1    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.3 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.7 75.2 75.1 75.6 75.7 75.9 76.1 76.2 1.3
Previous estimates             75.1 75.5 75.7 75.8 75.9    
Mining 87.0 86.3 84.3 88.6 78.2 86.4 90.9 92.1 92.4 94.1 93.5 92.7 5.4
Utilities 85.3 92.9 84.4 92.9 78.3 77.4 78.7 77.3 77.3 78.0 77.8 77.3 2.0
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.0 87.8 84.7 90.0 76.4 85.4 89.1 90.1 90.6 91.9 91.5 90.9 3.9
Primary and semifinished 80.4 86.5 78.1 87.7 63.8 75.5 76.3 76.1 76.0 76.3 76.3 76.1 1.4
Finished 76.9 83.4 77.3 80.7 66.6 74.6 73.9 74.6 75.0 75.3 75.5 75.8 1.3
r Revised. p Preliminary.
Market Groups

The major market groups posted mixed results in October. The index for consumer goods moved up 0.2 percent, as increases for non-energy nondurables and for energy products were partly offset by a decline in consumer durables that was concentrated in automotive products. The indexes for business equipment and for defense and space equipment each advanced nearly 1 percent; both indexes have posted five consecutive months of gains.

Among nonindustrial supplies, the output of construction supplies rose about 1/2 percent in October, while the index for business supplies fell a similar amount. The output of industrial materials edged down, as gains for both durables and nondurables were outweighed by a decline for energy materials.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent in October despite a sizable drop in motor vehicle assemblies; manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5 percent. The output of durables advanced 0.5 percent, as the indexes for most of its component industries other than motor vehicles strengthened. Nondurables posted a gain of 0.2 percent, with mixed results among its industries. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 1.5 percent.

Mining output declined 0.3 percent in October. After reaching an all-time high in August, primarily as a result of gains in the oil and gas sector, production slipped slightly over the past two months; the index in October was about 24 percent above its trough in 2016. The index for utilities moved down 0.5 percent in October, as a decrease for electric utilities was partially offset by a large increase for natural gas utilities.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing edged up in October to 76.2 percent—with gains for durables and nondurables and a loss for other manufacturing (publishing and logging)—but it was still 2.1 percentage points below its long-run average. The utilization rate for mining fell to 92.7 percent but remained well above its long-run average of 87.0 percent. The operating rate for utilities moved down to 77.3 percent, a rate that is 8.0 percentage points below its long-run average.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization around the end of the first quarter of 2019. The Economic Census for 2017 will not be available from the U.S. Census Bureau by early 2019, so no new annual benchmark data will be included for manufacturing. Other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels), will be incorporated. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2018 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

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Last Update: November 16, 2018