Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2013: Supervisory Stress Test
Methodology and Results
Print- Federal Reserve Supervisory Stress Test Framework and Model Methodology
- Federal Reserve Supervisory Stress Test Results
- Appendix A: Severely Adverse Scenario
Federal Reserve Supervisory Stress Test Framework and Model Methodology
Appendix A: Severely Adverse Scenario
This appendix includes the severely adverse scenario provided by the Federal Reserve.
It is important to note that the severely adverse scenario is not a forecast but rather a hypothetical scenario to be used to assess the strength and resilience of BHC capital in a severely adverse economic environment. The severely adverse scenario, while unlikely, represents an outcome in which the U.S. economy experiences a significant recession and financial market distress, and economic activity in other major economies also contracts significantly.
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real disposable income growth | Nominal disposable income growth | Unemploy-ment rate | CPI inflation rate | 3-month Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate | Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index | Commercial Real Estate Price Index | Market Volatility Index (VIX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2001 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 10645.9 | 112.3 | 140.8 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.6 | 5.5 | -1.1 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 11407.2 | 114.5 | 140.0 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 9563.0 | 116.7 | 143.7 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.4 | 2.7 | -4.6 | -4.4 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 10707.7 | 119.1 | 137.9 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 10775.7 | 121.4 | 139.7 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 9384.0 | 124.3 | 137.4 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 7773.6 | 127.8 | 140.9 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 8343.2 | 130.4 | 144.2 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 8051.9 | 133.4 | 148.7 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 9342.4 | 136.2 | 151.2 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 9649.7 | 139.8 | 152.2 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 10799.6 | 144.3 | 150.1 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 11039.4 | 150.2 | 155.8 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 11138.9 | 156.4 | 162.6 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 10895.5 | 162.2 | 173.9 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 11971.1 | 167.8 | 178.4 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.2 | 8.1 | -4.8 | -2.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 11638.3 | 176.1 | 179.6 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2005 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 11876.7 | 183.8 | 186.5 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 12289.3 | 189.9 | 190.8 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 12517.7 | 194.9 | 199.6 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 13155.4 | 199.7 | 203.0 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 12849.3 | 199.7 | 211.9 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 13346.0 | 197.5 | 224.2 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 14257.6 | 198.0 | 221.1 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 14409.3 | 196.4 | 233.3 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 15210.7 | 192.1 | 241.5 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 15362.0 | 186.4 | 257.8 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 14819.6 | 180.7 | 260.2 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 13332.0 | 174.5 | 253.6 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 13073.5 | 166.7 | 242.1 | 31.0 |
| Q3 2008 | -3.7 | -0.6 | -8.8 | -4.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 11875.4 | 159.8 | 246.8 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.9 | -8.4 | -0.2 | -5.8 | 6.9 | -9.0 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 9087.2 | 152.0 | 231.9 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -5.3 | -4.4 | -4.7 | -6.8 | 8.3 | -2.5 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 8113.1 | 144.1 | 211.2 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 9424.9 | 142.3 | 175.4 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -6.1 | -3.3 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 10911.7 | 144.0 | 158.7 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 4.0 | 5.3 | -0.6 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 11497.4 | 144.8 | 158.0 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 12161.0 | 145.5 | 153.5 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 9.6 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 10750.0 | 145.7 | 169.3 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 11947.1 | 142.5 | 171.1 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 13290.0 | 140.2 | 179.8 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 14036.4 | 138.8 | 186.4 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.5 | 5.2 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 13968.1 | 137.7 | 184.4 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | 1.3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 11771.9 | 137.2 | 184.6 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.1 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 13109.6 | 135.9 | 194.1 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 14753.1 | 137.9 | 195.2 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 14208.6 | 141.3 | 196.8 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 14997.8 | 143.4 | 198.6 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | -3.5 | 0.0 | -3.8 | -2.3 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 12105.2 | 141.6 | 195.8 | 72.1 |
| Q1 2013 | -6.1 | -4.7 | -6.7 | -5.9 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 9652.6 | 137.9 | 185.8 | 76.6 |
| Q2 2013 | -4.4 | -3.3 | -4.6 | -4.0 | 10.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 9032.8 | 133.6 | 178.2 | 76.4 |
| Q3 2013 | -4.2 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -2.8 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 7269.1 | 129.0 | 171.8 | 79.4 |
| Q4 2013 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.8 | 11.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 7221.7 | 124.7 | 163.1 | 71.7 |
| Q1 2014 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 7749.3 | 120.6 | 160.4 | 70.6 |
| Q2 2014 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 12.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 8133.9 | 117.2 | 158.8 | 64.5 |
| Q3 2014 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 9026.1 | 115.0 | 156.3 | 58.6 |
| Q4 2014 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 11.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 9706.7 | 113.6 | 157.6 | 53.0 |
| Q1 2015 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 10211.0 | 113.2 | 157.1 | 50.1 |
| Q2 2015 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 12645.7 | 113.6 | 157.4 | 40.9 |
| Q3 2015 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 13854.4 | 114.4 | 162.7 | 26.3 |
| Q4 2015 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 15294.9 | 115.5 | 166.0 | 17.1 |
Note: Refer to "Data Notes" for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate ($/euro) | Developing Asia real GDP growth | Developing Asia inflation | Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index, base = 2000 Q1) | Japan real GDP growth | Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth | U.K. inflation | U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2001 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 105.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 125.5 | 5.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 106.0 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 124.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 106.3 | -4.2 | -0.6 | 119.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6.9 | -0.2 | 106.7 | -0.7 | -1.8 | 131.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 107.2 | -0.6 | -1.1 | 132.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 104.7 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 119.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 105.4 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 121.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 118.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 105.4 | -2.1 | 0.0 | 118.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 103.9 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 119.9 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Q3 2003 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 111.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 103.3 | 4.4 | -0.7 | 107.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 101.4 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 104.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 102.7 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 109.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 102.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 110.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 99.0 | -0.9 | 1.8 | 102.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 98.7 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 107.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Q2 2005 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 99.0 | 5.4 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Q3 2005 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 98.6 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 96.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 96.8 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 1.8 | 96.4 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 94.6 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 14.7 | 3.8 | 94.0 | 4.1 | -0.3 | 117.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Q2 2007 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 92.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 90.7 | -1.4 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 89.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 111.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 88.6 | -5.2 | 1.7 | 106.2 | -3.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 91.3 | -3.7 | 3.4 | 105.9 | -6.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Q4 2008 | -6.6 | -1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 92.0 | -12.4 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Q1 2009 | -10.7 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -1.2 | 94.0 | -15.0 | -3.5 | 99.2 | -5.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Q2 2009 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 2.5 | 92.1 | 6.3 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 91.1 | 1.0 | -1.4 | 89.5 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2009 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 90.5 | 7.1 | -1.5 | 93.1 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 89.7 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 93.4 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 90.8 | 5.1 | -1.2 | 88.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 88.2 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 83.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2010 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 87.2 | -1.1 | 1.2 | 81.7 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| Q1 2011 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 86.3 | -8.0 | 0.0 | 82.8 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 1.6 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 85.2 | -2.1 | -0.7 | 80.6 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 87.2 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 77.0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 87.0 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 77.0 | -1.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| Q1 2012 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 86.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 82.4 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Q2 2012 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 87.9 | 0.3 | -0.9 | 79.8 | -1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 86.1 | -3.5 | -2.0 | 77.9 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2012 | -8.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 97.2 | -1.4 | -4.4 | 75.7 | -6.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Q1 2013 | -6.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 97.9 | -4.5 | -4.1 | 77.8 | -6.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Q2 2013 | -4.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 96.9 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 78.7 | -3.7 | -0.6 | 1.6 |
| Q3 2013 | -2.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 95.1 | -6.8 | -4.7 | 78.7 | -1.4 | -1.0 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2013 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 93.0 | -5.5 | -3.6 | 78.4 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 |
| Q1 2014 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 91.2 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 78.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Q2 2014 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 89.7 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 78.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 88.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 78.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2014 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 8.4 | 1.7 | 87.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 78.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Q1 2015 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 86.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 79.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Q2 2015 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 86.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 79.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Q3 2015 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 85.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 80.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Q4 2015 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 85.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 80.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Note: Refer to "Data Notes" for more information on variables.
Data Notes
Sources for data through 2012:Q3 (as released through 11/13/2012).
U.S. real GDP growth: Percent change in real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. nominal GDP growth: Percent change in nominal Gross Domestic Product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. real disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income divided by the price index for personal consumption expenditures at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. nominal disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. unemployment rate: Quarterly average of monthly data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. CPI inflation: Percent change in the Consumer Price Index at an annualized rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. 3-month Treasury yield: Quarterly average of 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate discount basis, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see Lars E. O. Svensson (1995), "Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson-Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, no. 3, Sveriges Riksbank, pp. 13-26.
U.S. BBB corporate yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year BBB-rated corporate bonds, constructed for FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff using a Nelson-Siegel smoothed yield curve model; see Charles R. Nelson and Andrew F. Siegel (1987), "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, vol. 60, pp. 473-89. Data prior to 1997 is based on the WARGA database. Data after 1997 is based on the Merrill Lynch database.
U.S. mortgage rate: Quarterly average of weekly series of Freddie Mac data.
U.S. Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index: End of quarter value, Dow Jones.
U.S. House Price Index: CoreLogic, index level, seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve staff.
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Price Index: From Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board (Z.1 release); the series corresponds to the data for price indexes: Commercial Real Estate Price Index (series FL075035503.Q), divided by 1,000.
U.S. Market Volatility Index (VIX): Chicago Board Options Exchange, converted to quarterly by using the maximum value in any quarter.
Euro area real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver, extended back using ECB Area Wide Model dataset (ECB Working Paper series no. 42).
Euro area inflation: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver.
Developing Asia real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Bank of Korea via Haver; Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Central Statistical Organization via CEIC; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
Developing Asia inflation: Staff calculations based on Bank of Korea via CEIC; Chinese Statistical Information and Consultancy Service via CEIC and IMF Recent Economic Developments; Labour Bureau of India via CEIC and IMF; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
Japan real GDP growth: Cabinet Office via Haver.
Japan inflation: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications via Haver.
U.K. real GDP growth: Office of National Statistics via Haver.
U.K. inflation: Office of National Statistics (uses Retail Price Index to extend series back to 1960) via Haver.
Exchange rates: Bloomberg.
