Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Tenth District was stable over the past month. Job growth was modest. Though wage gains for new hires remained elevated, contacts indicated wage increases were targeted at workers who expanded their scope of responsibilities. Consumer spending stabilized, but contacts noted rising price sensitivity among consumers. Still, consumer prices rose moderately. Reports from commercial real estate (CRE) contacts indicated skepticism around any recent appraisals of property valuation, as they did not want to be in a position of trying to "catch a falling knife" early in a CRE downturn. Loan performance was generally stable for CRE deals, but banks' internal stress testing pointed to potential deterioration as CRE loans mature in a higher-rate environment. Despite climbing oil prices, the number of active oil rigs fell to levels observed several months ago, reverting from a recent spike before year-end. Agricultural credit conditions remained sound despite some softening in farm conditions.
Labor Markets
Hiring activity picked up slightly across the District. Most contacts continued to report tight labor markets, but they also indicated the quality of applicants and recent hires improved recently. As staffing levels improved, businesses in both manufacturing and services sectors continued to modestly reduce average weekly hours and their use of part-time work. Many employers indicated they increased efforts to retrain and promote existing workers. Though wage growth for new hires remained elevated, many contacts continued to indicate wage increases were focused primarily on workers who expanded their capabilities, responsibilities, and productivity.
Prices
Prices for industrial goods and business services declined slightly over the last month, but several consumer-oriented contacts reported moderate increases in prices. In particular, prices for core goods, food away from home, and hotels all rose moderately. Business contacts reported higher input costs broadly. Services businesses continued to note rising labor costs, with professional business services indicating more difficulty passing higher costs onto customers.
Consumer Spending
After declining recently from elevated levels, consumer spending stabilized over the past month. Several contacts noted a recent shift in sales across spending categories due to heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Hotels noted bookings by leisure and small-group "SMERF" customers fell, even though business and large event bookings grew robustly.1 Retail contacts reported pockets of strength in auto part sales and grocery consumption, with spending shifting away from clothing and home electronics. Auto dealers noted sharp declines in EV sales, while demand for other vehicles was steady. Amid the rising price sensitivity of consumers, several contacts indicated their emphasis on protecting price margins over coming months.
Community Conditions
More contacts reported difficulties among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households in obtaining and maintaining affordable credit. Contacts noted increased utilization of, and defaults on, credit cards, payday loans, and pay-as-you-go purchasing among LMI households. Defaults on debts for medical services also reportedly rose. The increase in default rates among LMI households has led to a moderate increase in challenges among renters in qualifying for housing leases. Contacts also reported more denials of financing for car purchases among LMI households and a slight increase in vehicle repossession due to delinquency on existing loans.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Business activity across the District grew slightly over the last month, while profitability declined slightly. Service firm activity rebounded moderately from declines earlier in the year. Manufacturing firms reported further declines in production over the last month. However, several manufacturing contacts noted the current weakness is partially driven by customers working through excess inventories, and that longer-term demand for machinery and manufactured products remained stable. Contacts in the logistics, transportation, and packaging sector reported softening demand for shipping, suggesting potential slowing in consumer goods sectors over coming months. Businesses broadly reported resolutions to supply chain issues domestically, with microchips still being an exception. However, many contacts raised concerns over international shipping due to both rising geopolitical tensions and physical disruptions to trade routes through Central America. Manufacturing and services contacts reported declining margins and lower profitability in recent months. Professional service firms reported more pronounced margin compression than manufacturing contacts, consistent with higher labor costs and an inability to pass costs onto customers. Contacts implemented a series of cost-saving strategies to maintain profit margins, including changing suppliers and reducing overtime work. Overall, contacts are more optimistic about margins and profitability, anticipating flat or slight margin expansion over the coming year.
Real Estate and Construction
Contacts in commercial real estate noted appraisers were facing difficulty assessing property values amid very few property transactions over the past several months. Buyers expressed skepticism around any recent appraisals, not wanting to be in a position of trying to "catch a falling knife" early in a CRE downturn. Developers indicated new private development activity has all but ceased, especially for multifamily housing. In some District states, substantial municipal project construction activity offset headwinds to private development, which, combined with projects already under development, supported demand for construction labor.
Community and Regional Banking
Demand for credit remained stable at District banks across most loan types. However, contacts noted demand for CRE loans weakened amid higher interest rates. While lending standards remained unchanged, bankers were reviewing their CRE portfolios for potential weaknesses as loans come up for renewal, including stress-testing cash flow performance in a higher-rate environment. Loan performance was generally stable for non-criticized CRE deals, yet banks' internal stress testing and portfolio analysis pointed to potential deterioration within these deals as CRE loans mature in a higher-rate environment. Despite expectations for further weakness in CRE, contacts expected overall loan quality for most other loan types to remain unchanged over the next six months. Deposit levels also remained stable as mix migration into higher-yielding accounts persisted.
Energy
Total oil and gas production declined slightly across the District. Despite climbing oil prices, the number of active oil rigs fell to levels observed three to six months ago, reverting from a recent spike before year-end. Gas rig counts stayed steady as drilling for gas remained unprofitable. The number of drilled and completed wells decreased in Colorado and Wyoming's Niobrara Basin, while they stayed mostly steady in Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin. Accordingly, the number of drilled but uncompleted wells was constant in the Anadarko but fell in the Niobrara, portending a potential for decreased production in coming months. Coal production in Wyoming rebounded somewhat from lower production levels earlier in the year, and coal prices remain slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Agriculture
Conditions in the Tenth District farm economy softened in February, but agricultural credit conditions remained sound. Crop prices declined moderately over the past month alongside reports of stronger yields and production in the 2023 growing season than was previously estimated. Grain stocks were higher coming into 2024 than a year ago in most Districts states. Although strong yields could support revenues, producers with large shares of the harvested grain currently in storage appeared likely to sell at unfavorable prices. In the livestock sector, cattle prices remained strong alongside reports of additional declines in cattle herds. Farm financial conditions have moderated over the past year, but credit stress and farm loan delinquencies remained low. Looking ahead, contacts continued to cite ongoing risks associated with high expenses, commodity market developments, and high interest costs.
For more information about District economic conditions visit: https://www.KansasCityFed.org/research/regional-research.
Footnotes
1. "SMERF" is a hotel industry acronym referring to Social, Military, Educational, Religious and Fraternal group bookings. Return to text