Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Summary of Economic Activity
The Ninth District economy grew slightly since the previous report. Respondents to a January survey reported a slight increase in sales and orders over the previous month. Employment grew slightly, but overall labor demand softened somewhat. Wage pressures were moderate but continued to ease, and prices rose modestly. Consumer spending and agricultural conditions declined, while commercial real estate activity was flat. Construction, manufacturing, and residential real estate activity increased slightly. Activity among minority- and women-owned businesses declined slightly.
Labor Markets
Employment grew slightly since the last report. Hiring demand remained positive overall but softened somewhat. Demand for full-time, year-round employees fell modestly, particularly among leisure and hospitality firms affected by unseasonal winter conditions. Softer labor conditions were also reported in construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and transportation sectors. More firms cut workers, though this number was still a small fraction compared with those looking for workers. Contacts reported modestly improved labor availability. A Minnesota finance company said, "It depends on the position. Higher-level positions are hard to find qualified candidates. Lower-level positions are starting to have more applications." A large manufacturer in South Dakota reported that slowing demand over the last year cooled its labor needs, but "finding workers to replace turnover is still moderately difficult." Firms were a bit less optimistic about future hiring needs than they were previously, but still positive overall.
Wage pressures were moderate overall but have been easing compared with previous levels. A survey of almost 700 firms found that roughly half reported wage increases of 3 percent or more, with 18 percent seeing increases of more than 5 percent; both measures were moderately lower than those of earlier surveys. Some firms reported wage pressure was easing due to better labor availability, reduced business, an inability to pass higher costs on to customers, and declining reimbursement rates from government health care programs.
Prices
Prices increased modestly since the last report. A quarter of respondents to a District business survey reported increasing customer prices in January from a month earlier, while 63 percent reported no change in pricing. Input price pressures remained greater than final prices; 41 percent reported increases in January. Retail fuel prices in District states increased slightly since the last report. Prices received by farmers increased in December from a year earlier for chickpeas, dry edible beans, lentils, chickens, and cattle; prices decreased for corn, wheat, soybeans, hay, sugar beets, potatoes, canola, milk, hogs, turkeys, and eggs.
Worker Experience
Workers highlighted opportunities for career development, income improvement, and schedule flexibility as their top three priorities when looking for a job. The majority were confident that they would find a job in the next three months. Contacts who switched jobs or recently became employed after a period of unemployment said the most challenging part of their job search was finding a job that pays what they need. Most of them got jobs in health care, followed by education and manufacturing. The majority had applied for up to five jobs before being hired. Contacts reported higher prices across most items in recent weeks, mainly in food. "I wish my twenty-dollar [sandwich] lunch went back to [costing] ten," said a Minnesota worker. "It instead keeps going up."
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending was down since the last report. Unseasonably warm weather hurt businesses catering to winter activity; firms in retail, accommodation, and entertainment saw lower revenues across the District. Ski hills in Montana and Michigan's Upper Peninsula (U.P.) closed due to lack of snow. January hotel occupancy fell in most District states, including by 12 percent in Montana. An accommodations firm in the U.P. said bookings were 20 percent higher to start the year, but "most guests cancel due to lack of snow. We are now showing a 25 percent decline. This is having a devastating effect on all local businesses." However, contacts reported healthy underlying demand; weather was a confounding factor, but expectations for spring tourism were positive. Consumer spending remained active in some other areas; new-vehicle sales rose 18 percent in January at one large dealership, and sales of powersport vehicles also rose across the District. Contacts noted that some consumers continued to adjust purchasing habits due to high prices. A grocer in southern Minnesota said that customer counts remained strong, but "customers are starting to pull back on their purchases."
Construction and Real Estate
Construction declined overall since the last report. Firms reported that both active and future projects out for bid were lower. Commercial permitting for new projects in January was widely lower. Single-family development remained soft, with modest but spotty increases in some District markets compared with a year earlier. Multifamily permitting has slowed significantly. Home remodeling activity has also slowed for some firms. A Minnesota contact said that "consumers quite abruptly stopped spending discretionary income on larger home improvements."
Commercial real estate was flat. Office space continued to see negative absorption due in part to soft employment in office-using sectors. Industrial vacancy rates rose slightly, but slowing speculative development allowed rental rates to rise. Retail vacancy rates were comparatively low, thanks to very slow development of new space and new leasing activity. Residential real estate grew modestly from low levels, with a modest majority of larger markets seeing year-over-year sales growth in January.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity increased slightly since the previous report. A regional index of manufacturing conditions indicated expansion in activity in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota in January relative to a month earlier. However, demand continued to slide. Two-thirds of manufacturing sector respondents to a District business survey reported that January sales fell from a month earlier. A large custom fabricator reported that demand from large customers had slowed, but they were "not sure if they are reducing inventories to free up cash, or if demand is softer." In contrast, several producers of construction materials and electronics reported an uptick in demand.
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions declined. Ninth District farm income declined in the last quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier, according to most lenders responding to an agricultural conditions survey. Capital spending also decreased on balance, while farm household spending continued to increase. Sector contacts reported that current prices for some commodities were below breakeven levels for many producers; however, input costs have moderated somewhat. Oil and gas exploration activity increased slightly since the previous report. District iron ore mines, already near capacity, increased production since the last report.
Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Activity among minority- and women-owned business enterprises (MWBE) declined for slightly more contacts than not over the most recent four-week period. Expectations for future activity over the next four weeks edged slightly more positive. Wages among these contacts were mostly unchanged; only one-third said they had recently increased wages. Some reported that benefit costs were still climbing. "Health insurance jumped yet again for 2024," shared a Minnesota contact. Staffing levels and worker demand were mostly flat, and only a slight majority expected labor demand to increase over the coming weeks. Profits were lower on balance, with little change expected in the coming weeks.
For more information about District economic conditions, visit https://www.minneapolisfed.org/region-and-community.