Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The January projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on January 24-25, 2012.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to table

2. The range for a variable in a given year consists of all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. Return to table

3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Return to table

* Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text

* Projections for the second half of 2012 implied by participants' April projections for the first half of 2012 and for 2012 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. 

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In January 2012, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 3, 3, 5, 4, and 2. In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. In January 2012, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 3, 3, 5, 4, and 2. In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.