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Summary of Economic Projections
Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

September 12-13, 2012 Tables and Charts

SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF)

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Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, September 2012

Percent

Variable Central tendency1 Range2
2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer run 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer run
Change in real GDP 1.7 to 2.0 2.5 to 3.0 3.0 to 3.8 3.0 to 3.8 2.3 to 2.5 1.6 to 2.0 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.1 2.5 to 4.2 2.2 to 3.0
June projection 1.9 to 2.4 2.2 to 2.8 3.0 to 3.5 n.a. 2.3 to 2.5 1.6 to 2.5 2.2 to 3.5 2.8 to 4.0 n.a. 2.2 to 3.0
Unemployment rate 8.0 to 8.2 7.6 to 7.9 6.7 to 7.3 6.0 to 6.8 5.2 to 6.0 8.0 to 8.3 7.0 to 8.0 6.3 to 7.5 5.7 to 6.9 5.0 to 6.3
June projection 8.0 to 8.2 7.5 to 8.0 7.0 to 7.7 n.a. 5.2 to 6.0 7.8 to 8.4 7.0 to 8.1 6.3 to 7.7 n.a. 4.9 to 6.0
PCE inflation 1.7 to 1.8 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.8 to 2.0 2.0 1.5 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.1 1.6 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.3 2.0
June projection 1.2 to 1.7 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 n.a. 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.2 n.a. 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 1.7 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0 1.8 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0   1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.3  
June projection 1.7 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 n.a.   1.7 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.0 n.a.  

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The April projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 19-20, 2012.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to table

2. The range for a variable in a given year consists of all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. Return to table

3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Return to table



Table 1a
Economic Projections for the First Half of 2012**
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges

Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 1.8 1.8
PCE Inflation 1.6 1.6
Core PCE Inflation 2.0 2.0

Participants' Projections

Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 1.8 1.6 2
2 1.8 1.6 2
3 1.8 1.6 2
4 1.8 1.6 2
5 1.8 1.6 2
6 1.8 1.6 2
7 1.8 1.6 2
8 1.8 1.6 2
9 1.8 1.6 2
10 1.8 1.6 2
11 1.8 1.6 2
12 1.8 1.6 2
13 1.8 1.6 2
14 1.8 1.6 2
15 1.8 1.6 2
16 1.8 1.6 2
17 1.8 1.6 2
18 1.8 1.6 2
19 1.8 1.6 2

* Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 1b
Economic Projections for the Second Half of 2012*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges

Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 1.6 to 2.2 1.4 to 2.2
PCE Inflation 1.8 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.2
Core PCE Inflation 1.4 to 1.8 1.2 to 2.0

Participants' Projections

Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 1.6 1.4 1.6
2 2.0 1.8 1.8
3 1.4 2.0 1.6
4 1.6 2.0 1.6
5 2.2 2.0 2.0
6 1.6 1.8 1.4
7 1.8 2.0 1.6
8 1.6 2.0 1.4
9 2.0 2.0 1.6
10 1.4 2.0 1.6
11 2.2 2.0 2.0
12 2.2 2.2 1.8
13 1.8 1.8 1.6
14 1.8 2.0 1.8
15 2.2 2.2 1.6
16 1.6 1.6 1.2
17 2.0 2.0 1.2
18 1.4 1.8 1.6
19 1.6 1.8 1.4

* Projections for the second half of 2012 implied by participants' September projections for the first half of 2012 and for 2012 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 2
September economic projections, 2012-15 and over the longer run
(in percent)

Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation Federal Funds Rate
1 2012 1.7 8.2 1.5 1.8 0.13
2 2012 1.9 8.2 1.7 1.9 0.13
3 2012 1.6 8.3 1.8 1.8 0.13
4 2012 1.7 8.2 1.8 1.8 0.13
5 2012 2.0 8.0 1.8 2.0 0.13
6 2012 1.7 8.1 1.7 1.7 0.13
7 2012 1.8 8.1 1.8 1.8 0.13
8 2012 1.7 8.2 1.8 1.7 0.13
9 2012 1.9 8.1 1.8 1.8 0.13
10 2012 1.6 8.2 1.8 1.8 0.13
11 2012 2.0 8.0 1.8 2.0 0.50
12 2012 2.0 8.0 1.9 1.9 0.13
13 2012 1.8 8.0 1.7 1.8 0.13
14 2012 1.8 8.3 1.8 1.9 0.13
15 2012 2.0 8.2 1.9 1.8 0.13
16 2012 1.7 8.2 1.6 1.6 0.13
17 2012 1.9 8.2 1.8 1.6 0.13
18 2012 1.6 8.3 1.7 1.8 0.13
19 2012 1.7 8.2 1.7 1.7 0.13
 
1 2013 2.3 7.9 1.8 1.6 0.13
2 2013 2.7 7.9 1.8 1.7 0.13
3 2013 3.0 7.8 1.6 1.8 0.13
4 2013 2.5 7.8 2.0 2.0 0.50
5 2013 3.5 7.2 2.0 2.0 0.13
6 2013 2.5 7.9 1.7 1.7 0.13
7 2013 2.7 7.8 1.6 1.8 0.13
8 2013 2.8 7.7 1.8 1.8 0.13
9 2013 2.3 8.0 2.0 2.0 0.13
10 2013 2.4 7.9 1.6 1.8 0.13
11 2013 3.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.75
12 2013 2.5 7.7 2.0 2.0 0.13
13 2013 2.5 7.6 2.0 2.0 0.75
14 2013 3.0 7.7 2.0 2.0 0.50
15 2013 3.2 7.7 1.9 2.0 0.13
16 2013 3.0 7.7 1.5 1.6 0.13
17 2013 2.5 7.5 2.1 1.8 0.13
18 2013 3.0 7.8 1.7 1.9 0.13
19 2013 3.0 7.7 1.6 1.8 0.13
 
1 2014 3.3 7.3 1.6 1.6 0.13
2 2014 3.2 7.4 1.7 1.7 0.13
3 2014 3.8 7.1 1.6 1.9 0.13
4 2014 2.7 7.3 2.0 2.0 2.50
5 2014 3.0 6.5 2.0 2.0 1.75
6 2014 3.3 7.3 1.7 1.8 0.13
7 2014 3.2 7.4 2.0 2.0 0.13
8 2014 3.1 7.3 1.9 1.8 0.13
9 2014 3.0 7.5 2.0 2.0 1.50
10 2014 3.6 7.2 1.6 1.8 0.13
11 2014 3.0 6.3 2.0 2.0 3.00
12 2014 3.0 7.1 2.0 2.0 0.13
13 2014 3.0 7.2 2.2 2.2 1.50
14 2014 3.2 7.2 2.0 2.0 1.75
15 2014 4.1 6.7 2.1 2.1 0.13
16 2014 4.0 7.0 1.8 1.7 0.13
17 2014 3.9 6.5 2.2 2.0 0.13
18 2014 3.7 7.2 1.8 2.0 0.13
19 2014 3.6 7.0 1.6 1.9 0.13
 
 
1 2015 3.5 6.8 2.2 2.0 0.50
2 2015 3.3 6.8 2.0 1.8 0.75
3 2015 3.8 6.0 1.8 2.0 0.75
4 2015 2.8 6.9 2.0 2.0 4.00
5 2015 2.8 6.0 2.0 2.0 3.75
6 2015 3.5 6.7 1.8 1.9 1.00
7 2015 3.5 6.5 2.0 2.0 1.00
8 2015 3.4 6.7 1.9 1.9 0.13
9 2015 3.5 6.8 2.0 2.0 3.50
10 2015 3.7 6.2 1.8 1.9 1.60
11 2015 2.5 6.0 2.0 2.0 4.50
12 2015 3.0 6.5 2.0 2.0 1.50
13 2015 3.0 6.8 2.2 2.2 2.50
14 2015 3.2 6.8 2.0 2.0 2.50
15 2015 4.2 6.0 2.3 2.3 0.75
16 2015 4.1 6.2 1.9 1.8 1.00
17 2015 3.5 5.7 2.0 2.0 1.00
18 2015 3.8 6.3 1.9 2.1 0.50
19 2015 3.7 6.1 1.8 2.0 1.50
 
1 LR 2.2 5.5 2.0 4.00
2 LR 2.5 6.0 2.0 4.00
3 LR 3.0 5.4 2.0 3.80
4 LR 2.3 5.5 2.0 4.30
5 LR 2.3 6.0 2.0 4.25
6 LR 2.2 5.5 2.0 4.20
7 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0 4.00
8 LR 2.3 5.5 2.0 4.30
9 LR 2.5 6.0 2.0 4.50
10 LR 2.3 6.0 2.0 4.50
11 LR 2.5 6.0 2.0 4.50
12 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0 4.50
13 LR 2.5 6.3 2.0 3.75
14 LR 2.7 5.5 2.0 4.00
15 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0 4.00
16 LR 2.5 5.3 2.0 4.00
17 LR 2.3 5.0 2.0 3.50
18 LR 2.5 5.3 2.0 3.00
19 LR 2.5 5.8 2.0 4.25


Table 2 Appendix:
Assessments of participants who, under appropriate monetary policy, judge that the federal funds rate will not be raised until after 2015

Projection Year of first increase Change in real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation Federal Funds Rate
8 2016 3.5 6.4 2.0 2.0 0.75


Figure 1.A. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-15 and over the longer run

Real GDP Growth
Percent

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 2.2 (3.3) (0.1) 2.4 2.0 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 3.5 4.1 4.2 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.0 3.0 3.8 3.8 2.5
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.3
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.2

Unemployment rate

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 4.8 6.9 9.9 9.6 8.7 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 8.3 8.0 7.5 6.9 6.3
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.2 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.0 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.0 7.0 6.3 5.7 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 3.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.5 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0

Core PCE inflation
Percent

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Actual 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.7 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. 



Figure 1.B. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-15 and over the longer run

[Three fan charts display a different visual presentation of the same data from the first three charts of Figure 1, Change in real GDP, Unemployment rate, and PCE inflation.]



Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy, September 2012

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of participants 1 3 2 12 1

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In June 2012, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 were, respectively, 3, 3, 7, and 6.



Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Target federal funds rate at year-end
(Percent)		 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
0 - 0.37 18 15 13 1  
0.38 - 0.62 1 2   2  
0.63 - 0.87   1   3  
0.88 - 1.12       4  
1.13 - 1.37          
1.38 - 1.62     2 3  
1.63 - 1.87   1 2    
1.88 - 2.12          
2.13 - 2.37          
2.38 -2.62     1 2  
2.63 - 2.87          
2.88 - 3.12     1   1
3.13 - 3.37          
3.38 - 3.62       1 1
3.63 - 3.87       1 2
3.88 - 4.12       1 6
4.13 - 4.37         5
4.38 - 4.62       1 4

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.



Figure 4.A. Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.

Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
September projections 0 2 17
June projections 0 1 18

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.

Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
September projections 14 5 0
June projections 15 4 0

Individual Responses

Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2(a) B A A A B A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) C C C C B C C C C B B C B B C C C C C


Figure 4.B. Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment rate

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.

Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
September projections 0 2 17
June projections 0 1 18

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.

Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
September projections 0 6 13
June projections 0 6 13

Individual Responses

Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2(a) B A A A B A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) B A A A B A A A A B B A B B A A A A B


Figure 4.C. Uncertainty and Risks - PCE inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.

Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
September projections 1 10 8
June projections 1 8 10

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.

Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
September projections 4 12 3
June projections 5 12 2

Individual Responses

Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2(a) B A B A B B B A C B A B A B B A A A B
2(b) B C B A B B B B A B A B C B C B B C B


Figure 4.D. Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.

Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
September projections 2 9 8
June projections 2 8 9

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.

Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
September projections 4 12 3
June projections 5 12 2

Individual Responses

Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2(a) A A B A B A B B A B A B A B B A A A B
2(b) B C B A B A B B C B A B C B C B B C B


Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2012-15 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections
1.6 - 1.7 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.0 - 2.1 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.2 - 2.3 0 2 2 6 0 0 0 n.a. 7 7
2.4 - 2.5 0 4 6 3 0 0 1 n.a. 10 9
2.6 - 2.7 0 0 2 5 1 0 0 n.a. 1 2
2.8 - 2.9 0 0 1 2 0 2 2 n.a. 0 0
3.0 - 3.1 0 0 6 2 6 6 2 n.a. 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 1 0 5 4 2 n.a. 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 1 0 5 6 n.a. 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 3 1 2 n.a. 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 n.a. 0 0
4.0 - 4.1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 n.a. 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2012-15 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 0
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 5 5
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 6 6
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 1
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 n.a. 5 5
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 n.a. 1 1
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 n.a. 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 n.a. 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 n.a. 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 0 1 2 4 4 0 n.a. 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 1 0 8 2 0 n.a. 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 1 3 3 5 0 n.a. 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 7 4 0 5 0 n.a. 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 3 8 4 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 7 7 1 6 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2012-15 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections
1.1 - 1.2 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.3 - 1.4 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 2 2 5 6 4 4 0 n.a. 0 0
1.7 - 1.8 15 2 5 5 4 5 4 n.a. 0 0
1.9 - 2.0 2 2 8 7 8 9 12 n.a. 19 19
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 1 1 3 1 2 n.a. 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2012-14

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 2015
September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a.
1.5 - 1.6 2 0 2 3 1 4 0 n.a.
1.7 - 1.8 12 12 8 8 5 5 2 n.a.
1.9 - 2.0 5 7 9 5 11 8 14 n.a.
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 n.a.
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2012-15 and over the longer run

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections		 September
projections		 June
projections
0 - 0.37 18 16 15 13 13 6 1 n.a. 0 0
0.38 - 0.62 1 2 2 1 0 4 2 n.a. 0 0
0.63 - 0.87 0 1 1 1 0 1 3 n.a. 0 0
0.88 - 1.12 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 n.a. 0 0
1.13 - 1.37 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.38 - 1.62 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 n.a. 0 0
1.63 - 1.87 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 n.a. 0 0
1.88 - 2.12 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.13 - 2.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.38 - 2.62 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 n.a. 0 0
2.63 - 2.87 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.88 - 3.12 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 n.a. 1 1
3.13 - 3.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.38 - 3.62 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 1 1
3.63 - 3.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 2 1
3.88 - 4.12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 6 6
4.13 - 4.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 5 5
4.38 - 4.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 4 5

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 



Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
September projections 0 2 17
June projections 0 1 18

Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
September projections 14 5 0
June projections 15 4 0

Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
September projections 0 2 17
June projections 0 1 18

Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
September projections 0 6 13
June projections 0 6 13

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
September projections 1 10 8
June projections 1 8 10

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
September projections 4 12 3
June projections 5 12 2

Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
September projections 2 9 8
June projections 2 8 9

Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
September projections 4 12 3
June projections 5 12 2

Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 5. Scatterplots of projections in the initial year of policy firming
(in percent)

Year of Firming Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate
2012 2.0 8.0
2013 2.5 7.6
2013 2.5 7.8
2013 3.0 7.7
2014 3.0 6.5
2014 3.0 7.5
2015 3.0 6.5
2015 3.3 6.8
2015 3.5 5.7
2015 3.5 6.5
2015 3.5 6.7
2015 3.5 6.8
2015 3.7 6.1
2015 3.7 6.2
2015 3.8 6.0
2015 3.8 6.3
2015 4.1 6.2
2015 4.2 6.0
2016 3.5 6.4


Year of Firming Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation
2012 2.0 1.8
2013 2.5 2.0
2013 2.5 2.0
2013 3.0 2.0
2014 3.0 2.0
2014 3.0 2.0
2015 3.0 2.0
2015 3.3 2.0
2015 3.5 1.8
2015 3.5 2.0
2015 3.5 2.0
2015 3.5 2.2
2015 3.7 1.8
2015 3.7 1.8
2015 3.8 1.8
2015 3.8 1.9
2015 4.1 1.9
2015 4.2 2.3
2016 3.5 2.0


Year of Firming

 Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation
2012 8.0 1.8
2013 7.6 2.0
2013 7.7 2.0
2013 7.8 2.0
2014 6.5 2.0
2014 7.5 2.0
2015 5.7 2.0
2015 6.0 1.8
2015 6.0 2.3
2015 6.1 1.8
2015 6.2 1.8
2015 6.2 1.9
2015 6.3 1.9
2015 6.5 2.0
2015 6.5 2.0
2015 6.7 1.8
2015 6.8 2.0
2015 6.8 2.2
2016 6.4 2.0
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Last Update: January 5, 2018