Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Release Date: November 17, 2020
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Notice Below

Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in October. The index has recovered much of its 16.5 percent decline from February to April, but output in October was still 5.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic February level. After edging up 0.1 percent in September, manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in October. The output of utilities rose 3.9 percent, while the output at mines declined 0.6 percent to a level that was 14.4 percent below its year-earlier reading. At 103.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.3 percent lower in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in October to 72.8 percent, a rate that is 7.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 8.6 percentage points above its low in April.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2020 2020 Oct. '19 to
Oct. '20
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total index 92.1 97.6 101.7 102.5 102.1 103.2 .9 6.0 4.2 .7 -.4 1.1 -5.3
Previous estimates 91.9 97.6 101.7 102.2 101.5   .7 6.2 4.2 .4 -.6    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 86.0 93.2 97.8 98.8 98.0 98.8 4.5 8.3 5.0 1.0 -.8 .8 -3.4
Consumer goods 91.5 98.8 103.6 104.2 103.2 104.0 4.4 8.0 4.8 .7 -1.0 .8 -.6
Business equipment 74.0 83.1 88.8 90.9 90.3 90.8 6.9 12.2 6.9 2.3 -.6 .6 -8.9
Nonindustrial supplies 93.6 96.7 99.2 100.4 100.2 102.1 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.2 -.2 2.0 -5.6
Construction 104.3 106.3 108.2 109.9 110.5 112.4 3.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 .6 1.6 -3.5
Materials 96.7 101.4 105.6 105.9 105.8 106.9 -2.4 4.9 4.1 .3 .0 1.0 -6.9
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 87.0 93.5 97.4 98.8 98.9 99.9 3.8 7.4 4.2 1.4 .1 1.0 -3.9
Previous estimates 86.9 93.5 97.4 98.5 98.3   3.6 7.6 4.2 1.2 -.3    
Mining 108.0 110.6 114.9 113.5 114.9 114.2 -11.3 2.4 3.8 -1.2 1.2 -.6 -14.4
Utilities 100.2 101.5 106.7 104.9 99.4 103.3 -.7 1.3 5.1 -1.7 -5.2 3.9 -3.0

Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2019 		1988-
89
high 		1990-
91
low 		1994-
95
high 		 
2009
low 		 
2019
Oct. 		   
2020 Oct. '19 to
Oct. '20
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total industry 79.8 85.1 78.8 85.0 66.7 77.0 64.8 68.7 71.7 72.2 72.0 72.8 .2
Previous estimates             64.7 68.7 71.6 72.0 71.5    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.2 85.5 77.3 84.6 63.7 74.6 62.4 67.0 69.9 70.9 71.0 71.7 .0
Previous estimates             62.2 67.0 69.8 70.7 70.5    
Mining 87.2 86.3 84.3 88.6 78.3 89.7 72.8 74.7 77.8 77.1 78.2 77.9 -1.5
Utilities 85.2 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.2 77.3 71.5 72.3 75.8 74.3 70.2 72.7 3.1
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.2 87.8 84.7 90.0 76.4 88.3 73.8 75.5 77.8 77.9 78.5 78.7 -1.2
Primary and semifinished 80.3 86.4 78.1 87.8 63.9 75.1 63.7 67.0 69.7 70.1 69.7 71.0 .4
Finished 76.7 83.3 77.3 80.6 66.5 73.6 61.7 67.3 70.8 71.7 71.3 71.7 .5
[r] Revised. [p] Preliminary.
Market Groups

Every major market group posted gains in October. The output of consumer goods rose 0.8 percent, with broad-based gains among its components. After falling more than 17 percent between February and April, the index for consumer goods rebounded quickly and in October it was within 1.7 percent of its February level. The production of business equipment moved up 0.6 percent in October, but it was still 7.3 percent lower than it was in February. The indexes for defense and space equipment, construction supplies, business supplies, and materials each advanced 1.0 percent or more in October.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in October; even so, it was about 5 percent below its level in February. The index for durable manufacturing stepped up 0.9 percent, as small drops in the indexes for furniture and related products, fabricated metal products, and motor vehicles and parts were outweighed by gains elsewhere, especially for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment and for miscellaneous manufacturing. The index for nondurables rose 1.2 percent; nearly all of its components posted gains. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 1.5 percent.

The index for utilities moved up 3.9 percent in October, with an increase for electric utilities more than offsetting a decrease for natural gas utilities. Mining output declined 0.6 percent, as oil and gas extraction fell back in October after posting a gain in September.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing rose 0.7 percentage point in October to 71.7 percent, 11.6 percentage points higher than its trough in April but still 6.5 percentage points below its long-run average. The utilization rate for mining declined to 77.9 percent, remaining below its long-run average of 87.2 percent. The operating rate for utilities increased to 72.7 percent, a rate that is 12.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization in early 2021. New annual benchmark data for manufacturing for 2017 and 2018 will be incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The weights for market-group splits of the industry-level indexes will be updated with information from the 2012 benchmark input-output accounts from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data for manufacturing through the fourth quarter of 2019 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

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Last Update: November 17, 2020