Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Release Date: June 15, 2017
Annual Revision Notice Below

Industrial production was unchanged in May following a large increase in April and smaller increases in February and March. Manufacturing output declined 0.4 percent in May; the index is little changed, on net, since February. The indexes for mining and utilities posted gains of 1.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in May. At 105.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in May was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1 percentage point in May to 76.6 percent, a rate that is 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2016
Dec.[r] 		2017 2016
Dec.[r] 		2017 May '16 to
May '17
Jan.[r] Feb.[r] Mar.[r] Apr.[r] May[p] Jan.[r] Feb.[r] Mar.[r] Apr.[r] May[p]
Total index 103.8 103.5 103.7 103.9 105.0 105.0 .8 -.3 .3 .1 1.1 .0 2.2
Previous estimates 103.8 103.5 103.7 104.1 105.1 .8 -.3 .2 .4 1.0
Major market groups
Final Products 101.1 100.4 99.8 100.0 101.7 101.7 1.3 -.7 -.5 .2 1.6 .0 1.6
Consumer goods 105.1 104.0 103.1 103.5 105.2 105.4 1.4 -1.1 -.9 .3 1.7 .2 1.2
Business equipment 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.4 100.9 100.3 .8 .0 .0 -.3 1.5 -.7 1.3
Nonindustrial supplies 104.8 104.9 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6 .3 .0 .5 .1 .5 -.3 1.6
Construction 109.0 110.6 112.4 111.3 112.1 111.7 -.2 1.5 1.7 -1.1 .7 -.3 3.3
Materials 105.3 105.3 106.3 106.3 107.2 107.3 .5 .0 .9 .0 .9 .1 3.0
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 102.6 103.0 103.4 102.6 103.7 103.3 .2 .4 .4 -.8 1.1 -.4 1.4
Previous estimates 102.6 103.0 103.2 102.8 103.8 .2 .4 .3 -.4 1.0
Mining 101.9 103.3 107.0 106.4 108.0 109.7 -.4 1.4 3.6 -.6 1.5 1.6 8.3
Utilities 106.2 98.5 93.8 101.4 102.2 102.6 6.9 -7.2 -4.8 8.2 .7 .4 .1
Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2016 		1988-
89
high 		1990-
91
low 		1994-
95
high
2009
low
2016
May
2016
Dec.[r] 		2017 May '16 to
May '17
Jan.[r] Feb.[r] Mar.[r] Apr.[r] May[p]
Total industry 79.9 85.2 78.8 85.0 66.7 75.6 76.0 75.7 75.9 75.9 76.7 76.6 .8
Previous estimates 76.0 75.8 75.8 76.1 76.7
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.4 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.7 75.0 75.2 75.4 75.7 75.0 75.8 75.5 .7
Previous estimates 75.2 75.4 75.6 75.2 75.9
Mining 87.0 86.1 83.8 88.6 78.4 77.7 79.0 80.0 82.8 82.1 83.2 84.3 -.2
Utilities 85.6 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.1 77.7 79.5 73.7 70.1 75.8 76.3 76.6 1.6
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.1 87.7 84.5 90.1 76.3 78.1 79.6 80.4 81.9 81.5 82.3 83.0 .1
Primary and semifinished 80.5 86.5 78.1 87.8 63.8 75.2 75.9 74.9 74.7 75.5 76.0 75.9 .9
Finished 76.9 83.4 77.3 80.6 66.7 75.0 74.9 74.9 75.0 74.3 75.4 75.1 .8
r Revised. p Preliminary.
Market Groups

The output of consumer goods rose 0.2 percent in May. The indexes for consumer energy products and consumer non-energy nondurables rose 1.0 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, but the index for consumer durables decreased 0.8 percent. Business equipment posted a decline of 0.7 percent, with all of its major components registering decreases. The output of defense and space equipment rose 0.6 percent, while the indexes for construction supplies and business supplies each moved down 0.3 percent. The production of materials edged up 0.1 percent, with a gain of 1.0 percent for energy materials outweighing a sizable decline for durable materials and a smaller decline for nondurable materials.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent in May following a strong gain in April. Factory production has increased 1.4 percent over the past 12 months. The index for durables fell 0.8 percent in May, while the index for nondurables edged up 0.1 percent; the output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved up 0.3 percent. Almost all major industry groups within durables posted declines; within nondurables, a large gain in chemicals outweighed declines in most other industries.

Mining output rose 1.6 percent in May. Production has increased about 1.5 percent per month, on average, so far this year; the index in May was 8.3 percent higher than its year-earlier level. Even so, output in May was still 10.0 percent below its peak in December 2014. The index for utilities advanced 0.4 percent, as higher output for gas utilities more than offset a small decrease for electric utilities.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing declined 0.3 percentage point in May to 75.5 percent, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run average. Durables recorded a decrease in utilization, while nondurables and other manufacturing (publishing and logging) each posted increases. The operating rate for each group remained below its respective long-run average; the greatest shortfall was for other manufacturing. Utilization for mining moved up 1.1 percentage points to 84.3 percent but remained below its long-run average. The operating rate for utilities rose 0.3 percentage point to 76.6 percent.

Introduction of Reliability Estimates for Industrial Production Indexes

With the monthly G.17 statistical release on April 18, 2017, the Federal Reserve Board began publishing estimates of the reliability of the levels and the rates of change (monthly and quarterly) of the reported production indexes for total industry and for its three major components: manufacturing, mining, and utilities. The reliability estimates are designed to give data users a sense of the typical range in which a statistic will likely end up after its final (fifth) revision in a monthly release. The reliability estimates are based on the revision history for the indexes back to 2008; each G.17 release will include estimates for those months and quarters for which either new or updated estimates were issued that month. A detailed explanation is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm#reliability

The reliability estimates are issued in table 15 of the G.17 release, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/table15.htm. A text file that contains the estimates is also available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/ipdisk/revh_sa.txt.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board issued its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization on March 31, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). New annual benchmark data for 2015 for manufacturing were incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The updated IP indexes included revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series were changed. Modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry affected the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2016 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

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Last Update: June 15, 2017